Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 2

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Washington at NY Mets
The Nationals look to follow up their 9-7 win over the Mets in the opener and build on their 15-2 record in Gio Gonzalez' last 17 starts as a road favorite. Washington is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135)

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Milwaukee (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 15.264; Milwaukee (Garza) 14.186
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 13.716; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.814
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Under

Game 905-906: Colorado at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 14.673; Miami (Alvarez) 13.706
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Over

Game 907-908: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.438; NY Mets (Colon) 15.040
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under

Game 909-910: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.992; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.338
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Under

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 15.814; Arizona (Cahill) 14.408
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.682; San Diego (Ross) 15.566
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Kansas City at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 15.498; Detroit 17.059
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 12.834; White Sox (Paulino) 14.101
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Over

Game 919-920: Cleveland at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.138; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.244
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 17.280; Baltimore (Jimenez) 15.999
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 16.179; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.104
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under

Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.961; Houston (Cosart) 13.494
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 16.653; LA Angels (Santiago) 14.551
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under

Game 929-930: Philadelphia at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.293; Texas (Ross) 15.976
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-175); Over

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Yankees -146

The Yankees may be too high of a favorite for unit rated status. However they are the right side here as they are off a 6-2 loss last night and are 14-6 as a road favorite from-150 to -175 and 8-0 as a road favorite off a road favored loss dating to last season. The Astros are 1-6 here vs the Yankkes and took advantage of C.C Sabathia who had low velocity last night. The Astros are 1-8 as a home dog off a home dog win and will face Kuroda tonight who is 7-3 in road April starts and 7-1 vs Houston. In his last 3 starts vs the Astros he has gone 21 scoreless innings. The Astros counter with J. Cosart who allowed 7 runs in his 11 innings here at home spanning 3 starts. Look for the NY .Yankees to bounce back tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

There's not a lot to like about the Lakers' performance this campaign. Only the 13th losing squad in team history since 1948-49, and en route to its worst season since 1974-75, Los Angeles needs five wins in its last eight games to avoid that ignominy. That's not going to happen. But a win here tonight could be in the cards as the Beach Boys enter tonight fray 8-4 ATS as dogs versus sub .370 foes this season. They have also been favored in 28 of the last 30 games in this series. With the Kings just 6-10 ATS as home chalk this season, the points become the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Lakers.

Scott Spreitzer

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -109

We can't put too much into spring ball statistics, but at the same time we saw promise with right-hander Henderson Alvarez. I expect Alvarez to find more success in 2014 after showing improved numbers last summer following a couple of seasons in the American League East. He closed last season with a pair of strong outings, including no-hitting the Detroit Tigers in late September. Tonight the righty will face a struggling Colorado lineup that's scored just 3 runs in their first two games. Jordan Lyles takes the mound for Colorado. Lyles was beaten out as the 5th man in the rotation, but gets a start due to injuries in the rotation. The Rockies were originally hoping for a few Minor League outings for Lyles after getting smacked around more often than not as a member of the Houston Astros. I believe he'll struggle in his first outing on Wednesday. Going back to last season, the Rockies have won just 15 of their last 53 on the road, meanwhile, Miami is on a 9-4 run at home against Colorado. I'm recommending a play on Miami on Wednesday.

Marc Lyle

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Minnesota Twins +1½ -161

Im putting out a a similar play to what I did on the Royals on opening day which cashed the ticket. I think this is the one game that the Twins can take in this series but we are still going to take the runs. Correia is a decent arm for the Twins and id he is on his game today then I see the Twins getting the victory.

Ray Monohan

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Chicago Bulls -2

The Hawks are this close to sliding right out of the playoffs and when everything is becoming difficult the last thing you want is to play the Bulls. They are scrappy and make you work in ways that are just not any fun. Chicago has won and covered all three meetings this season and has won and covered the last 5 in total and 7 of 8. I see no reason why that dominance should come to a halt...especially not because the Hawks halted a losing streak against Philadelphia.

Art Aronson

Coyotes vs. Kings
Play: Over 5

The last meeting between these two teams saw quite a few goals scored and I expect we see the same here. Keep in mind that the last three games between these two teams held in LA saw an average of 7.3 goals scored. The Kings were idle last night but have been lying in wait for the Coyotes after blowing two leads in the loss to Minnesota on Monday. The Kings had won six straight before the loss so I expect we see some execution from a team that averaged 3.5 goals per game over that stretch. LA comes into this game with the added motivation of looking to revenge three straight losses to the Coyotes. Phoenix meanwhile is coming in on the back end of a back to back situation after a 1-2 SO loss to the Jets last night. The Coyotes don’t have the luxury of taking a night off with the race for the final playoff spots in the West up for grabs here. Phoenix no doubt wants to score more than a goal in a game like it did yesterday and should have confidence against the Kings where the team has had success of late. The Coyotes might have problems in net though as starter Mike Smith is still injured and team will have to go with the third starter or again with backup goalie Tomas Greiss here who hasn’t been a starter ever in his NHL career. Take note the “over” is a strong 5-2 in Phoenix games road games where the line was set at five goals. Consider going with the higher

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
Pick: Toronto Raptors

The Rockets are great at home, buts just 20-15 away -- not impressive for a No. 4 seed. They are also without star Dwight Howard (ankle), who is out another week. In addition, PG Pat Beverley (9.9 ppg, 2.7 apg) has a torn meniscus in knee and is out. 25-year old 6-9 Chandler Parsons (16 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is a good offensive player but a defensive liability: Parsons drew the assignment of guarding Kevin Durant on Tuesday, and though Durant lit him up for 42 points. Houston is 1-4 ATS road run and 1-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. Toronto is tough on defense, a top 10 team, and the Raptors are on a 33-16-2 ATS run. Toronto is rested and home, 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games playing on one days rest and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Raptors are 6-1-1 ATS against the Western Conference and the Rockets are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.

Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Yesterday's game was postponed due to rain, the first time that's happened at Oakland since 1998. Kazmir and Kluber were supposed to go last night and they're now expected to oppose each other in Game 1 of today's day-night double-header. Even with Monday's win, the Indians are still only 73-90 on the road the past couple of seasons. That includes a 20-38 (-15.6) mark as road underdogs in the 100 to 125 range. On the other hand, even with Monday's loss, the A’s are 104-63 (+28) at home the past couple of seasons. Kazmir bounced back with a solid campaign for Cleveland last season. He’ll be motivated to pitch well against last year’s teammates. Note that Kazmir was outstanding in spring-training. In fact, he had a 1.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four spring starts. That should give him plenty of confidence, heading into this evening’s game. Kazmir noted: "I went into my last spring start throwing all of my pitches and having success with them. I’m more confident knowing I have a lot more pitches that I now feel comfortable with." Kazmir was also quoted saying: "I kind of like day games. Just throughout my career, I don't know, I just like it get up in the morning and go right to it." Kazmir's career stats would tend to support that statement. He's 26-17 in the day compared to 50-53 at night. He's also got a superior ERA and WHIP in the day, than he does under the lights. Kazmir will be opposed by Corey Kluber. Unlike Kazmir, Kluber wasn’t particularly sharp in the spring. While he did pitch well in his final spring start, Kluber still had a poor 5.60 ERA for the campaign overall. Monday's result notwithstanding, the A’s have thrived against right-handed pitchers. I feel they've got a solid shot at the victory this afternoon.

Jesse Schule

New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Pick: New York Yankees

The Bronx Bombers lost their opener by a score of 6-2 in Houston, and they will look to draw even with the Astros with a win in Game 2 of this series Wednesday. Veteran Hiroki Kuroda will face off against 23 year old right-hander Jarred Cosart. Kuroda had an excellent first half last season, but struggled in the final six weeks of 2013. He only faced the Astros once last year, tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing only four hits while earning a win. Cosart earned just two decisions in 10 starts last year, and both of those came on the road. He was 1-1 with an impressive 1.95 ERA overall, but was 0-0 with a 3.94 ERA in three home starts. He's apparently dealing with a blister, which could be slightly bothersome but won't prevent him from starting. While his ERA looks great, when you dig a little deeper, you can see that he walked 35 batters in just 60 innings pitched in 2013. He could be in trouble putting runners on base against the Yankees.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Bryan Leonard

Toronto Blue Jays +157

Mark Buehrle and Matt Moore square off in a battle of two completely different southpaws as the Jays and Rays wrap up a three-game set at the Trop in Tampa. What you see is what you get with Mark Buehrle, a guy with a lot of pitchability as he enters the 15th season of his Major League career. He has always forced teams to put the ball in play and the Rays are a team that relies on the walk. They batted just .257 last season, which was 12th in baseball and seventh in the American League. Buehrle has remarkably consistent mechanics which make him a safe bet to keep his team in every game.

The same cannot be said for Matt Moore, who has a lot more swing and miss ability than Buehrle, but also much worse control. Moore is definitely a case of why sabermetrics are important. He posted a 3.29 ERA, which traditionalists will gawk at, but his FIP was 3.95 and his SIERA was 4.24. Moore's strikeout rate took a slight drop, while his walk rate jumped more than one full percent to 11.8. He also uncorked 17 wild pitches. Command was an issue for Moore last season and in Spring Training as well. Again, Spring Training stats are not the most reliable ways of analyzing a player, but the negative trends that developed last season don't seem to have gone away. Moore had the eighth-highest pitches-per-inning mark of all pitchers with 150 or more innings of work at 17.4. That makes it very hard to work deep into games and forces the lesser relievers into action.

In the second half, Moore's strikeout rate fell from 23.6 percent to 18.9 percent, which is just above league average. Over the course of the season, Moore's average fastball velocity fell two miles per hour. That, plus a command drop and a 36-day disabled list stint for elbow pain, are big red flags for the upcoming season. Moore also took a liner off the head in Spring Training that set him back a few days in his preparation.

Moore was fortunate to strand a well above average percentage of baserunners last season and has serious fastball command issues against righties. The big bats in the Blue Jays lineup bat right-handed, so the price is right to take a shot with the Blue Jays here and play them at a number that is definitely a bit too inflated.

Will Rogers

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles

The Kings had their six-game winning streak snapped last time out, losing to the Minnesota Wild. I was on the Wild. But this time I think LA is a safe bet as they host Phoenix.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Back To Backs - Ironically enough, the Coyotes also recently lost to Minnesota. They fell 3-1 on Saturday, giving up all three goals in the third period. At one point, they went nearly 25 minutes without a shot on goal. Last night was even worse though as the 'Yotes fell in a shootout, at home, to Winnipeg. The most embarrassing part was the large contingent of Jets' fans at the game. (Remember, Phoenix relocated from Winnipeg). Regardless, it will be hard for the team to get off the mat for this second half of back to back games.

2. Jonathan Quick - The Kings goaltender has been superb of late. He is 5-1 with a 1.95 goals against average his last six starts. The fact that Phoenix has only scored one goal in each of its last two games should make life easier.

3. X-Factor - The Kings loss to the Wild on Monday marked the first time in 138 games that they fell in regulation when holding the lead going into the third period.

Bryan Power

Washington vs. NY Mets
Pick: Washington

The Nats took the season opener from the Mets, 9-7 in 10 innings Monday. It was their sixth straight win over their division rivals and I like their chances at continuing that streak tonight behind southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who has never lost in six career starts vs. New York thanks to a 1.63 ERA. He's tossed 16 consecutive scoreless innings here at Citi Field.

Bartolo Colon is coming off two shockingly good seasons for the A's, but despite the move to the league that's easier to pitch in, I just can't see him delivering for the Mets. He's 40-years old now, always battling weight issues and has been suspended for PED's. Even worse is the fact the team's closer Bobby Parnell has a torn elbow ligament and is out indefinitely.

The Nats are going to be a good team this year and atone for last year's disappointing campaign. Bryce Harper is a legit MVP candidate. Look for their good start to the season to continue.

Matt Fargo

Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Colorado Rockies +101

The Rockies have dropped the first two games of this series with Miami but I expect a big recovery on Wednesday. Colorado's offense has been held in check as it is hitting just .224 while scoring only four runs. The Rockies were supposed to have Tyler Chatwood in this spot but he has been sent to the DL and they recalled Jordan Lyles to make the start. Lyles was competing for the fifth spot in the rotation but lost out to Franklin Morales this spring despite posting a solid 3.18 ERA over 17 innings. He comes over after three forgettable years in Houston and a new environment can do him good and he will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder tonight. Miami is again expected to bring up the rear in the National League East so their 2-0 start is a bit surprising but the young pitching staff could show some efficiency as we have seen already. Tonight, the Marlins counter with Henderson Alvarez who was solid in 17 starts last season, posting a 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The last time we saw Alvarez, he tossed a no-hitter against the Tigers last September and coming off a solid spring, big things are expected. He received horrible run support last season and overall, the Marlins lost 11 of his 17 starts including six of nine at home. The bats have been hot so far but I see a cool down at the plate on Wednesday.

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