Chase Diamond
Chicago Cubs +1½ -161
This game features the 0-1 Cubs at the 1-0 Pirates. Pirates won a real tight game fir their opener as they nipped the Cubs in 10 innings 1-0 I expect a very similar game today as these two teams almost always play close despite the talent difference. The public is backing the Pirates here on a 65% clip yet this line is moving backwards showing us some sharp money coming in on the Cubs here.
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COLORADO ROCKIES AT MIAMI MARLINSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: MIAMI MARLINS -110FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I don’t often have good things to say regarding the Miami Marlins. But sports betting is all about objectivity, and the Marlins have a little something going to start the new season with a pair of wins over the Rockies. They’ll look to make it three in a row tonight before a handful of locals who actually seem to care about this team.
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The Rockies entered the season with high hopes of gaining some ground in the NL West. But while two games is hardly a reliable barometer, this remains a team that has been a poor performer on the road, and the offense is once again struggling on enemy turf.
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Jordan Lyles gets the call for the Rockies tonight, as he steps in for injured Tyler Chatwood. Lyles has never really put it together. His command has been an ongoing problem, and his stuff just isn’t dominant enough to succeed when he gets in unfavorable counts. Lyles was ordinary this spring, and is only with the big club due to Chatwood and Jhoulys Chacin being hurt. He has also had trouble with some of the hitters he’ll see tonight, albeit in a small sample.
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Henderson Alvarez ended last season with a flourish and picked up where he left off this spring. Alvarez had a really good camp and he looks like a pitcher who has figured things out. Alvarez is not a dominating type, but he’s also smart enough to pitch to his strength, which is inducing ground balls. I can see him being good enough to hold down a mid-rotation spot with the Marlins, and posting respectable enough numbers to consistently give his team a chance to win. None of the Rockies have faced Alvarez and that’s also a plus factor for the pitcher.
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Early season momentum is something I like to jump on, as the energy is higher right now than once the daily grind begins to settle in. Right now, the Marlins have more of it than do the Rockies and I like the pitching matchup as well. The price is not an obstacle, so I’ll side with the Marlins to register a third straight win.
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Kansas City Royals at Detroit TigersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas City Royals +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Max Scherzer hopes to show the Tigers he's worth the new contract he's asking for as they host the Royals. Scherzer is 9-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 17 starts against the Royals. Two of his last three against them were one run victories. Scherzer allowed 11 of his 12 runs in his last three starts of the Spring against the Astros, Nationals and Braves. Alex Gordon (11-28) and Salvador Perez (7-18) hit the Tigers starter well. He'll be opposed by Jason Vargas who is a solid lefty for the Royals. He didn't face the Tigers in 2013, but has two wins against them in 2012. Vargas pitched well in the Spring allowing just eight earned runs in 24 innings. Rajai Davis (1-11) and Austin Jackson (2-14) have had their problems with the southpaw. These are the two best teams in the AL Central. Where will Scherzer's head be with the failed contract talks? I think there's value with the runline in this one.
Brandon Shively
Detroit Pistons vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -10
I very rarely advise laying a number like this is the NBA, but the Pacers are overdue. What a better game to get back on track than against a Detroit team that has given up. The Pistons do not care about playing defense. We just saw them give up when playing Philly as the 76ers ended their 26 game losing streak against the Pistons.
The Pacers have now been held under 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. This is a team that is way better than their current offensive struggles. The Pacers have been burning money with a 4-22-1 ATS mark their last 27 games, I like their chances tonight. I will note that the Pistons are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games vs. the Eastern Conference and this is a great opportunity for the Pacers to run up the score. Now they are tied with Miami for the #1 seed and it's time to put up or shut up. Historically, Indiana is 9-3 ATS the last 12 meetings when playing at home vs. Detroit.
The Pistons are giving up 107 ppg over their last 5 games. On the road this season, the Pistons are allowing 105 ppg. Detroit is allowing opponents to shoot 47% on the season and this is as good a chance as ever for the Pacers to break out of their slump and shoot 50+% from the floor. Indiana has been the talked about team on all sports talk radio shows now and I look for them to have a big bounceback game tonight.
Jack Jones
New York Knicks -2
The New York Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. You can bet that they'll be motivated tonight to inch even closer to a postseason spot, just as they have been for weeks.
Indeed, New York has essentially been in a must-win situation for quite some time now. It has responded by playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. The Knicks have gone a sensational 11-3 in their last 14 games overall, including back-to-back road wins over Golden State and Utah.
My biggest reason for backing the Knicks is that the Nets come into this game fatigued. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days. This is one of the oldest teams in the league, so these tough situations really affect the Nets more than most. Plus, they are coming off a big win over the Rockets on national TV last night, which sets them up for a letdown.
New York is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games when revenging a home blowout loss of 20 points or more. The Knicks are 13-3 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. Brooklyn is just 14-22 SU in all road games this season. Bet the Knicks Wednesday.
LT Profits
Fresno State vs Siena
Pick: Fresno State +1
Somehow, the Fresno State Bulldogs shot 47.8 percent in Game 1 of the CBI Championship Series while holding the Siena Saints to 33.3 percent, and yet Fresno blew a 12-point second-half lead at home in a 61.57 loss! The reasons for that collapse were apparent when considering Siena out-rebounded the Bulldogs 15-4 on the offensive glass and the Saints committed just eight turnovers in the game compared to 16 for Fresno State. The latter was a total anomaly as it is Fresno State that is ranked an excellent 11th in the country in offensive turnover percentage while Siena is ranked 300th and yet the roles of the teams seemed reversed in Fresno Monday! Look for a return to the norm today resulting in Fresno State forcing a Game 3 with a road win of its own. Fresno State is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 road games.
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MILWAUKEE -1 +112 over AtlantaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With injuries to two of their best starters, Atlanta was forced to bring in some outside help and ended up with Aaron Harang, who signed with Atlanta on March 24. Really? Harang was released by Seattle in August after an absolutely brutal run (5-11, 5.76 in 120 IP), got picked up by the Mets and did some competent work for them in September. Skills were reasonably in line with prior years that delivered better results, but don't get sucked in. "Competent" is the upside; "bankroll-killer" is the downside. This is Harang’s sixth team in the past 12 months, not years. He has a job only because of an inordinate amount of injuries to starting pitchers throughout the majors. Of the 107 pitchers in the majors to work at least 140 innings last season, Harang had the third worst ERA in that group and the worse xERA and that was pitching the majority of those innings at the AL’s friendliest pitcher’s park. Aaron Harang is a pure stiff that has maybe four starts left in his career.
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The Brewers have not gone off yet with just four runs in their first two games but that was facing a couple of very good looking Braves' starters. Things get much easier here for Milwaukee’s offense and we also love that Matt Garza makes his first start in his new digs because the fans will be extra jacked up in support of this significant signing. Early in his career, Garza’s poor skill foundation held him back. The last three seasons his skills have blossomed. A stress fracture in his elbow shortened his 2012 and 2013 seasons but his arm looked stronger as the season went along in 2013. His four-seam fastball velocity jumped from 92.8 in the 1H to 93.4 mph in the 2H and his swinging K% leaped from 9% to 11% over the same period. He finally got a better feel for his changeup, as he had a career-high 13% swinging K% with that pitch. If his elbow holds up, Garza could finally post a long-awaited breakout this season. He also figures to get plenty of run support here.
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Minnesota +129 over CHICAGOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kevin Correia is not going to dazzle anyone and we wouldn’t back him as the chalk with counterfeit money. However, he’s not the chalk here and he’s consistent enough to at least give his offense a chance to go off. Skills don't get more consistent than Correia’s, as there's little variance in yearly xERA or skills. That’s not necessarily a good thing because Correia’s pitch-to-contact approach minimizes his value and his 2010 shows how thin the margin for error is. That said, this one has nothing to do with backing Correia and everything to do with taking back a tag against Felipe Paulino.
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Paulino will pitch his first major league game since having Tommy John surgery in July 3 of 2012. As he worked his way back from TJS in the minors last season, Paulino fanned 26 in 27.2 IP, but he walked 15 and allowed 35 hits. The same pattern emerged in spring training, as he struck out 21 in 22.2 IP but walked 10 and gave up a whopping 32 hits, the second most of all AL pitchers. Not having pitched in the majors for a year and a half and struggling to throw strikes and get hitters out in spring training is precisely the type of pitcher we’re happy to take back a price against. The Twinkies are not a very good team but remember that every team in baseball will win 60 games this year and for the Twins, this could certainly be one of the them. Overlay.
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BALTIMORE +103 over BostonFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Not convinced that the Red Sox should be favored here. John Lackey shed extra pounds and distractions in driven return from TJS, coaxing his strongest skills in years. Ks and groundballs were plentiful in the first half and 69%/0% dominant start/disaster start split brought him home in the 2H. With a clean arm and a clear head, Lackey stands a fair chance of repeating but we’re not buyers this early. Lackey had a rough spring with a 6.27 ERA over 24 innings. He’s been a very slow starter in April over the past three years with an ERA of 4.85 and that includes two starts at this park in which he had a BAA of .296 to go along with an ERA of 4.77. The Orioles have a legit shot of being the highest scoring team in baseball and it sure doesn’t hurt that current O’s have a solid .276 BA against Lackey in 254 career AB’s.
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On Aug 22 of last season Ubaldo Jimenez was 9-7 with a 4.00 ERA. He then knocked out eight straight pure quality starts with a 71/10 K/BB ratio, insisting he did so by finally reconciling his velocity drop and adopting a new pitch mix. Jimenez clearly made some adjustments mid-way through 2013. Yes, strand % and hr/f helped his ERA in the second half but this was clearly a different pitcher, with a big improvement in control and a sustained high strikeout rate. Jimenez claims to have made adjustments to account for his diminished velocity (96 mph fastball as recently as 2010; 92 mph the past two years). The pitch breakdown backs him up; he used his fastball a lot less, with a lot more sliders and split fingered fastballs in 2014. While his W-L record and ERA have been all over the map, xERA says that other than 2012, he’s been a pretty consistent pitcher. The Orioles are no joke and anytime we can take a tag back with them at home when the opposition’s pitcher isn’t a dominant one, we’re almost always going to accept it. No exception here.
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Seattle +129 over L.A. ANGELSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle has hit three jacks and has scored 18 runs in the first two games and when a team is feeling it like Seattle is, they can’t wait to get back to the park. Now these hot-bats will face a back-of-the rotation starter in Hector Santiago. There were openings in the back-end of the Anaheim rotation and Santiago snuck into one of them. Santiago, who came over from the White Sox via a trade, impressed early in spring training but he ended it with a rough start against the Diamondbacks' Triple-A squad in which he gave up six runs in five-plus innings. Despite the outwardly impressive numbers, there are reasons to beware: His ERA looks good, but he’s been helped by favorable strand percentages the past two years. Santiago’s xERA says this isn’t the skill set of a sub-4.00 pitcher and he walks too many batters (113 BB in 224 career innings). Santiago also gives up a lot of fly balls as evidenced by his 37%/44% groundball/fly-ball split over his career. Going from US Cellular Field (RH HR +38%) to Angel Stadium (RH HR -10%) will help but right now the Mariners have some pop in their bats. Santiago’s fastball velocity is also heading in the wrong direction, as it declined from 93.8 in 2011 to 91.8 in 2013. Lastly and another concern for Santiago is that he had a big IP boost from 2012 to 2013. Even with the move to Anaheim, beware. This is a risky skill set that could hurt your bankroll.
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James Paxton went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings for Seattle as a September call-up. Paxton features a mid-90s heater, a changeup he'll use anytime and a curve as his out pitch. Paxton has maintained a 55% groundball rate throughout his minor-league career and matched that in the aforementioned 24 innings last September. Erosion of command on the way up the ladder is a concern but as 25-year-old ground-baller with three plus pitches, there's just too much upside in him to ignore as a pooch against the Halos. Paxton certainly has value this early in the season and we’re on it.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -165FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Jays have Mark Buehrle on the mound against Matt Moore for Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are 1-8 last 9 games following a win and Tampa Bay is 8-3 when Moore pitches as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 5-0 when Moore starts last 5 at home.
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Brooklyn Nets vs. New York KnicksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Brooklyn Nets +2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nets are coming off a nice win over Houston which pushes the Nets just one game back in the loss column of Toronto for the division lead. The Knicks are tied with Atlanta as far as total wins at 32, but have two more wins 43 to 41 than Atlanta. The Knicks have a tough schedule ahead and this is one of two meetings with cross borough rival Nets. Both teams need this game and the Knicks need it more, but they are coming home off a long five game West coast swing and may seem a little jet lagged. Look for the Nets flying high off the big win last night to have the good times rolling as Joe Johnson, coming of a 30 point night, does it again and the Nets inch closer to that division crown.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Knicks -2
The Knicks are showing big time value as a small 2-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn isn't going to be as interested in this one as New York. The Nets are firmly in the playoffs and fresh off a big win last night over the Rockets in a nationally televised game on TNT. The Knicks on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives. New York is a game back of the Hawks for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. When it comes to which team will be more motivated, that edge clearly goes to the Knicks.
Not only do we find the Nets in a difficult scheduling spot, having to play on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set, but they have had their struggles on the road. Brooklyn is just 14-22 away from home, where they have won 14 straight. Each of their 9 losses have all came on the road.
This is also a huge revenge spot for the Knicks. In the most recent meeting the Nets came into Madison Square Garden and walked away with a 103-80 victory. New York is a dominant 27-9 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a home blowout loss of 20 or points. It's also worth mentioning that the Knicks are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 home games when they enter having won 3 of their last 4.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings
The Lakers are on pace for their worst record since moving west from Minneapolis in 1960 and at 33-49, are on the brink of losing 50 games for the first time in nearly 40 years when they visit the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. With eight games left in the regular season, the Lakers are virtually assured of cracking the 50-loss plateau, something that hasn't happened since the 1974-75 season (30-52). How long ago that was? Pat Riley was on that season's roster as a PLAYER!
However, despite all their overall struggles this year, the Lakers have taken care of business against the Kings, winning the first three meetings despite allowing 102.7 PPG to their Pacific Division rivals. Defense has been a season-long issue for LA, which is allowing 108.9 PPG, the second-most among the NBA's 30 teams.
DeMarcus Cousins (22.3-11.7) matched his season high with 35 points to go along with 14 rebounds in a 102-97 win at New Orleans on Monday. Rookie PG Ray McCallum also played well, scoring a career-best 22 points while dishing out 10 assists with only one turnover. Since being moved into the starting lineup March 26 while starter Isaiah Thomas (20.7-6.4 APG) deals with a right quad contusion, McCallum has averaged 15.3 PPG and 7.0 APG
"I got a great opportunity in front of me," McCallum said. "Coach (Michael Malone) gave me the opportunity to play. I want to make the most of it and perform well for me and my team and try to do anything I can to help the team win."Tho mas could miss his fifth straight game but there is no need to rush him back with rookie Ray McCallum playing well in his place.
Never crazy about laying points with the Kings but how can a team as bad as the Lakers take all four games in the season from ANYONE.? Lay the points.
Red Dog Sports
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago Cubs +143
Chicago Cubs +143 is our free play. Edwin Jackson has been around for years. He has average stuff but is a decent hitter. The Pirates won opening day 1-0 on a walkoff homer. Charlie Morton starts for the home team and could give up a few runs to the Cubs as some of the Cubs' hitters (Castro especially) have hit him well. Nice price on the underdog on Wednesday in what looks like a close game.
Steve Janus
Cleveland Cavaliers -2
The Cavaliers are showing great value as a small 2-point favorite against the Magic. While both teams will likely be sitting at home come playoff time, Cleveland is still alive for the 8th and final playoff spot. They trail 8th place Atlanta by 3-games and 9th place New York by 2. With Orlando completely out of it, the motivational edge is clearly in the Cavaliers favor.
Adding even more value to this play is the potential return of starting point guard Kyrie Irving. Getting Irving back would be a huge plus, but regardless if he plays or not I still like the Cavaliers to win this game and cover the 2-point spread.
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record.
MLB Predictions
Yankees / Astros Under 8.5
The Astros opened the season with a 6-2 victory last night, as they got to C.C Sabathia early and often. The Yankees were held to just 6 hits on the night and scored their 2 runs in the 8th inning off the bullpen. Tonight might be another tough night at the dish for the Yankees as they face young stud Jarred Cosart, who will pitch his first full season in the bigs. Cosart came up to pitch 10 starts at the end of last season and went 1-1 with a 1.95 ERA, .220 OBA and 1.35 WHIP during that stretch. He looks ready for the season, as he held opponents to a .159 batting average in 12 innings pitched during the spring. Tonight he will face Hiroki Kuroda who is coming off a season where he went 11-13 with a 3.31 ERA, .249 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. Kuroda has had a lot of success against Houston going 4-0 in 8 strats vs them lifetime with a 1.39 ERA, .195 OBA and 1.01 WHIP. That inclues one starts vs the Astros in 2013 where he went 7 innings giving up just 4 hits and 0 runs. Take note that the UNDER is 22-7-2 in Kuroda's last 31 road starts and 44-17-3 in his last 64 starts overall. The UNDER is 5-2 in Cosarts last 7 starts as an underdog, and 4-0 in these two teams last 4 meetings. Take the UNDER in this one tonight.
Wunderdog
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick: Kansas City +175
The Kansas City Royals have been down for many years, but they might be ready to contend this season. They made a lot of progress a year ago, and have playoff aspirations this season. The task will be difficult against Max Scherzer, a 21-game winner a year ago. This is a new season, and things are based on last year, which will be hard for him to duplicate. Vargas is an upgrade in the rotation for the Royals and is certainly is capaable of keeping them in the game here. The Royals bounced back off a loss late last season by going 10-2 in their last 12, and this once fragile team has grown up. The line is too steep here, as the gap is not as wide as it appears. Take Kansas City.