Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 20,2011

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: New York Yankees

Bartolo Colon toes the rubber in his first start since 2009 when he takes on the Blue Jays in Toronto Wednesday evening. While the heat on his fastball is not the same these days, Colon was highly effective this spring when he posted a sharp 2.25 ERA in 16 innings of work while issuing just one walk against 17 strikeouts. With Toronto winless at home in April behind Brett Cecil, look for Colon to answer the call in his 'Born Again' opportunity here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

Hollywood Sports

Ducks at Predators
Prediction: Over

These two teams have combined for 15 goals between them over their last two games and it should be more of the same tonight in Game Four of this series. Nashville has the opportunity to seize a dominant 3-1 lead in this series -- and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total when favored by now more than -150 price. The Over is also 3-0-1 in the Predators' last four games at home. The Ducks' will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight not wanting to have to win three straight games to capture this series. On the road as an underdog, Anaheim has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. With so much at stake, there is a very good chance that more than four goals will be scored tonight -- which should ensure a push at worst and a nice opportunity to reach the six-goal mark to cash the Over.

Cajun Sports

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Selection: New York Mets

The Astros will send right-hander Bud Norris to the bump for Game 2 of their series against the host New York Mets on Wednesday night. The Mets will counter with right-hander RA Dickey who is 1-0 versus Houston in his career with an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 1.174. Norris has a .500 record versus the Mets with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.184. The Big Apple has not been kind to the Astros as they are 7-20 their last twenty-seven games in New York. Houston is 1-6 as a road underdog and 5-12 versus right-handed starters. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST NL road underdogs in this price range with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 versus a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the year. Playing against these road underdogs would put you in the winner’s column at a seventy-nine percent clip over the last five seasons earning almost forty units of profit. Norris is coming off a strong outing at home while Dickey is in need of a win so we will back him at home, as he and the Mets grab a victory on Wednesday night in Gotham.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona D-Backs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds fit a nice system tonight that plays on certain home teams that are off a 1 runs home favored loss at -140 or higher and are playing on an opponent that scored 5 or more in a road dog win. The Reds have lost 3 straight on the road and will look to bounce back tonight with B. Arroyo on the Mound. Arroyo have been very good vs Arizona allowing just 4 runs in 19+ innings. Arizona Counters with Ian Kennedy. In his starts this season Kennedy has been sub par with a 6.85 era. He will have a difficult time with a Reds team that averages over 6 runs per game at home on better than .300 hitting. Arizona is 19-36 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 including 1-3 this season. The Reds also have a better bullpen as they are pitching to a 1.80 era at home this season. Look for the Reds to snap their 3 game losing streak.

BIG AL

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

This pitching match-up, Chicago righthander Philip Humber against Tampa Bay righthander Wade Davis, is a rematch of a game back on April 9 which the White Sox won by a 4-2 margin. That game was played in Chicago, so both Tampa and Davis hope to turn the tables at home tonight. Heading into Wednesday - and since going crazy for 16 runs against Boston on April 11 - Tampa has managed to plate just 25 runs in their next seven games, but they've gone 6-1 in those contests. On the flip side, after tearing the cover off the ball in the first week of the season, Chicago has scored just 19 runs in their last seven games, and the Sox have struggled mightily, going 1-6 during that time. Davis may be looking forward to another low-scoring victory tonight as he has fared very well against the Sox in his short career, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in just over 18 innings against them. Take the Rays.

Steve Merril

Pirates vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8

Charlie Morton has put his rough season behind him as he continues to baffle hitters with his new three-quarters arm slot. Morton is coming off a 6-1 complete game win over the Reds in which he gave up 1 run and five hits while striking out three and walking two. Morton is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA in his career against Florida. But his last two outings against them have been stellar, giving up just 2 runs and five hits over 12 innings of work. Current Marlins’ hitters are only 3 for 28 against Morton with Hanley Ramirez (0-10) and Emilio Bonifacio (0-6) struggling the most against him. The Pirates have a bullpen with pretty good numbers as their ERA is right around 3.50 this season.

Ricky Nolasco makes his fourth start of the season. He struggled against the Braves whom he traditionally struggled against. Outside of that start, Nolasco has been great giving up just 4 runs and 15 hits in 15 innings pitched. Nolasco has two straight scoreless outings against the Pirates over 14 innings of work. The righty struck out 21 while walking only three in those two starts. Ryan Doumit (2-8), Chris Snyder (2-13), Ronny Cedeno (0-4) and Lyle Overbay (0-2) have poor numbers against the Marlins’ starter. Florida is backed by a bullpen with a sub 2.00 ERA this season having completed five saves in five chances. They'll face a Pirates team that is averaging less than 4 runs per game this season. The Marlins have gone Under the total in three straight games, and Under the total in 7 of their last 9 games overall.

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers -106

Detroit's starting pitcher Rick Porcello is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA this season, but he is coming off of a strong effort in his last start. Porcello gave up a single run in six innings in a no decision against the Oakland Athletics in his last game and I expect him to do a good job against a Seattle team that has been struggling offensively so far this season. The Mariners send the struggling Eric Bedard to the mound for this start. The one time ace is trying to bounce back from shoulder surgery and has yet to go more than five innings in any of his three starts which have all been losses on the way to a 8.56 ERA. Even if Seattle does manage to hit Porcello, the Tigers have a lot more weapons to win this game if it becomes a slugfest. Play on Detroit.

James Patrick

Grizzlies vs. Spurs

NBA Playoff action resumes in the Western Conference at the AT&T Center as the Spurs host the Memphis Grizzlies fresh off the franchises first ever Playoff win. The San Antonio Spurs have been the best team in the NBA this season with the league’s best record. San Antonio has it all with playoff experience, great depth, and an elite head coach. The Spurs are (11-6) versus Memphis and (12-4-1) ATS in their last (17) playoff games as a favorite of (5.0-10.5). The Memphis Grizzlies are (1-5) ATS in their last (6) playoff games as an underdog and if they are to make this series interesting it will happen on their home court in Memphis - Not in San Antonio. Remember the Alamo! Big Game James Patrick's Wednesday NBA Playoff complimentary selection San Antonio Spurs.

Jim Feist

Padres at Cubs
Pick: Padres

So which ace do you trust? San Diego has been respectable on the road and goes with the former Cincy Reds' ace, Aaron Harang. He's been a great fit, with a 3-0 record and a 1.50 ERA, fanning 16 in 18 innings. He also doesn't walk anyone, which is a huge edge in a small park like Wrigley Field. Chicago goes with newly acquired Matt Garza, who is struggling at 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA, as he learns a new league. Garza gave up five runs off of seven hits and a pair of walks through six innings of work to take the loss on Friday against the Rockies. It took him 119 pitches to labor through the six frames and it was his second disappointing outing in a row. Play the Padres.

Frank Jordan

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees

That was a tough loss for the Yankees as Mo had a two run lead in the 9th and blew it. Other then the lead off double which was smacked to center the rest were very soft and as normal Mo got knickeled and dimed to a loss. The good thing is Mo is the best at this and will come back today and close the door as he has a short memory. Bartolo Colon is making his first start as he replaces Hughes in the rotation after replacing him a few times in long relief in games. Look for Colon to come out smelling like roses as his good pitching continues combined with the run support he gets as the Yankees leave Canada with a split. Play NY Yankees

Ben Burns

Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles

After dropping Monday's opener, the Orioles crushed the Twins by a score of 11-0 yesterday. That win snapped an 8-game losing streak, which had followed a 6-1 start to the season. I feel the O's have a solid shot at making it two in a row.

When asked about his team snapping the losing streak, Baltimore manager Buck Showalter noted: "You go through things like this with real good clubs and with bad clubs. This one had a different feel to it for me, and I still feel that way. There was a real confident mentality. The frustration was due to knowing they were capable of doing better."

Rookie Zach Britton goes for the O's. While he struggled (on the road) last time out, Britton was excellent in each of his first two starts. In his lone home start, he limited Texas to a mere four hits through 7 2/3 shutout innings. Now, not only is Britton at home, but he's facing a team which is banged-up and which is struggling to produce any offense.

The Twins aren't scoring runs. In fact, they rank last in the big leagues with a mere 50 runs scored. They're averaging 2.9 runs per game and hitting only .232. That includes a dismal .214 mark on the road. Yesterday, they played without their regular 3-4-5 hitters Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young. Even if they get some/all of their players back here, they may not be 100% healthy.

As Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire commented: "Right now, the challenge is getting my lineup out there, to get my guys back on the field. We've got a few too many holes out there. We need our boys to get back on the field. Whether we're going to be able to do that, I'm not positive."

Blackburn also got roughed up last time out. In two road starts, he's got a 4.63 ERA and 1.457 WHIP. Blackburn is also just 1-2 with an ugly 5.79 ERA in three starts and one relief appearance against the Orioles. In his lone start here at Baltimore, he allowed a whopping four home runs (six runs and nine hits overall) in just four innings.

The Twins are already 0-2 on the season after allowing double-digits in runs the previous day. They're also just 3-8 in Blackburn's last 11 road starts. Consider Baltimore.

Scott Spreitzer

Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics

Gio Gonzalez has been tremendous through his first three starts of the season, sporting a red-hot, 0.47 ERA & 1.26 WHIP. The lefthander has been particularly strong in daytime starts during his short career. The same cannot be said for Boston hurler Clay Buchholz. The righthander has not enjoyed his starts under the sun, and he's offered little more than batting practice when he's faced the A's. Buchholz has been punished for 13 earned runs and 29 base runners in 10 2/3 innings, spanning three starts against Oakland. He's also been tagged for a 4.83 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in his 21 afternoon appearances, including 20 starts. The problem mounts in this one because Boston has not hit lefties well in afternoon action away from Fenway. They went 2-6 in this situation a season ago, scoring an average of just 3.3 rpg. Boston is 0-7 on the road this season, overall, scoring just 16 runs, or 2.3 rpg. In fact, the Red Sox have been held to 1 run or less in four road games already this season. More of the same this afternoon. I'm backing the Oakland A's on Wednesday.

Craig Trapp

Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

Matchups are so important in the NBA playoff and Randolph has shown that the Spurs have no answer for him. Ginobli will be back which will really help the Spurs chances but still think its not enough for double digit win. MEM is the best ATS team on the road going 27-15. Memphis plays Spurs right down to the wire but cover easily.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -152

Motivated by 3 straight defeats, expect the reigning NL Central champs to mean business when they take the field Wednesday evening. The Reds, which have won 5 straight Game 2's, are in good hands with Arroyo. The right-hander has won his last three starts against the D-backs, including a brilliant 6-inning performance in a 6-1 win at Arizona earlier this month. The Reds are 5-1 in Arroyo's last 6 starts vs. the Diamondbacks and 25-10 in his last 35 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks, which are 1-6 in their last 7 Game 2's, are a poor 19-47 in their last 66 road games. It is also worth noting that Cincy is 17-3 in its last 20 home games after a loss by 2 runs or less. The Reds are winning by an average score of 5.6 to 3.7 in this situation. Bet the Reds.