Freddy Wills
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Take: San Francisco Giants
Matt Cain is today’s hot starter and if you have to ask why you have not been paying attention. Today’s match up will be a good one as we have Jorge De La Rosa who has been great as well especially vs. the Giants where he is 6-1 with a 2.26 ERA in his last 9 where the Rockies have gone 8-1. For some reason though the Giants have the Rockies number right now and I’m staying with the hot pitcher and the hot team at the moment.
Cain really is consistent during day or night starts as his stats are identical over the last three years so that’s not a concern at Coors Field during a day start today. He dominated the Rockies a year ago going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and in his last 4 trips to Coors Field he has posted a 1.86 ERA in 3 victories for the Giants. He’s been on fire since last years playoffs and he’s posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP already this year. You can’t pass up the opportunity with him as an under dog in my opinion. Rockies hitters are an inconsistent bunch at times and with 191 at bats vs. Cain they have just a .199 average so I’m confident the Giants stay in this one despite De La Rosa’s success. Jorge does not like to pitch at home as his stats are better on the road.
DAVID MALINSKY
DETROIT/SEATTLE OVER
Time to put a sequence into play again here. Erik Bedard has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the Major Leagues this season, and the Seattle middle relief corps has been near the bottom as well. So a Detroit and Over ticket has no jeopardy if we can get the Tigers to four runs, and that makes this the proper way to attack the setting.
Bedard’s 0-3/8.56 does not lie, if anything the allowance count is a bit generous because three unearned runs do not show. He has allowed a pair of HR’s in each of his three starts, and has a long way to go to get anywhere near his past form, if indeed that can happen – at the age of 32, and not having had a full Major League season since 2007, the upside may be limited. Even if he brings better stuff today note that he has not been able to go beyond five IP yet, and with stamina an issue the middle relief corps is absolutely in play.
We use the Over ticket to back-up a Detroit side play because there is no particular reason to trust Rick Porcello, a guy with limited stuff that may already be as good as he is going to be. That 14-9/3.90 as a 20-year old in 2009 may have led to some daydreams about a big career ahead, but it has been a 10-14/5.03 since then, and an inability to miss bats could make him one of the youngest pitchers to ever earn the “journeyman” tag.
Tom Freese
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
The New Orleans should have another strong performance against the Lakers tonight after getting a big outright win on Sunday, 109-100 as 11 point underdogs. The Books have the Lakers favored by 11 points again tonight which seems a little steep for this playoff game. The Lakers are only 15-27 ATS in all home games this season and they are also 9-18 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. The Hornets have covered two of three road games against the Lakers and will make it three of four tonight. Play on New Orleans.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +106 over N.Y. Yankees
Bartolo Colon is 37 years old and has spent 249 days on the DL over the past three years. He’s been a surprise this season, beginning with his 16-inning, 17-strikeout, 1-walk performance during spring training and continuing with his first 11 IP this year (13 K, 3 BB). Colon has not started a game since 2009 and now he’s being asked to go five innings. Chances are he won’t make it. Colon is 6’ 0” and weighs close to 300 pounds. He’s a fill-in until they get someone else to step up. New York has played just four games on the road this season and they have one victory to show for it. Only the name the on the jersey could influence Colon being a favorite on the road against the Jays. Toronto stands at 5-2 at home. In his last start, Brett Cecil struck out five and walked four, but held the Red Sox to three runs on two hits -- both homers -- over six innings for his first win of the season. He threw just 54 of his 92 pitches for strikes, but managed to avoid significant damage on a night where his command wasn't particularly strong and that’s a good thing. Cecil is a solid lefty with four good pitches. Current Yanks have hit just .258 against him in a combined 120 AB’s and although the tag is small, Cecil and the Blue Jays should not be a pooch at home against Colon and the Yanks. Play: Toronto +106 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona/CINCINNATI over 9 +114
Great American Ballpark is cozy with 328 and 325-foot corners and 370-foot alleys. These dimensions combined with the shortage of foul territory, provides for a hitter's haven on most days. The early forecast today is winds blowing out to centerfield at a brisk 19 MPH. Today’s starters, Bronson Arroyo and Ian Kennedy, are both fly-ball pitchers with high fly-ball ratios and that should not equate to a low-scorer. This season, hitters are batting .315 against Arroyo and .292 against Kennedy. Arroyo has already surrendered four bombs while Kennedy has surrendered three. The Reds saw Kennedy in Arizona just a few days ago and while he had success that day, lightning is unlikely to strike twice in 12 days. The Reds lead the NL in just about every offensive category including homers (24) and runs scored (99). The D-Backs lead the NL in slugging percentage (.454) and they’re in the top three in many other categories. Two very average pitchers in an extreme hitter’s park with the winds blowing favorably suggest this one flies over the total early. Play: Arizona/Cincinnati over 9 +114 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +145 over N.Y. METS
The Mets own the worst record in baseball. They also own one of the worst pens in the game. Those two factors alone make them a huge risk and an unwarranted big favorite. R.A. Dickey is a knuckleballer. Knuckleballers don't follow any rules, so it would be useless to break down his stats. We do know that at age 36, he’s been a career minor leaguer and emerged last season out of nowhere to post some decent numbers. Dickey has regressed somewhat early this year and has walked 12 batters in 18 frames while striking out 15. When a team is going bad and the starter is issuing walks, those free passes always find a way to cross the plate. Bud Norris is a guy to keep your eye on given the exciting skill flashes he displayed last season. While his 5.06 ERA screams stay away, patience is the more prudent action. After three starts, covering 16 innings this year, the opposition is hitting just .213 off him. Norris also has 20 K’s in those 16 innings and if he’s getting ahead in the count, he shown the ability to finish off batters. It could be awhile until we see the Mets priced here. Let’s take full advantage. Play: Houston +145 (Risking 2 units).
*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver/OKLAHOMA CITY Under 207
In game one both teams shot a high percentage from the field. The Nuggets hit 50.6% while the Thunder was a fraction lower at 49.3%. The two teams combined to score 210 points and game two is where some strong adjustments will be made. Additionally, the two squads attempted 61 free throws and when you combine that with the high shooting percentage and then consider that the game went over this total by just three points, the chances of this game staying under is strong. This is playoff basketball, where intensity is high and teams put a lot more focus on defense. Six of the Nuggets last eight road games have gone under the total and when these two faced one another twice in early April, both those games went way under this total also. In game one, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 72 points. George Karl says his breakdown of the game tape had Durant and Westbrook going a combined 18 for 25 on jump shots. And 14 of the made baskets came with a Denver player's hand in their face. Those are exactly the kind of shots Karl wants Denver's defense to force. All things being equal, this one stays well below the posted number. Play: Denver/Oklahoma City under 207 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
L.A. LAKERS –11½ over New Orleans
We’re not used to seeing the Lakers lose outright at home in the first game of the first round and it just might’ve been the best thing to happen to the Lakers. The realization that you have to bring it every game is a big wake-up call and thus, you can expect a huge response from the home team. The Hornets hit 41 of 79 field goals in game one and scored 109 points in the process. That’s embarrassing and it’s not Lakers basketball. This team prides itself on defense and when you consider that the Hornets are one of the lowest scoring teams in the Association, you can expect a total closer to 80 than 110. No mercy will be shown by Kobe and the Lakers in this contest. The Hornets got their win in this series and nothing short of a blowout will satisfy the best responding team in the league. Play: L.A. Lakers –11½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Nelly
Cleveland - over Kansas City
The first two games of this series have gone down to the wire with Cleveland winning on Monday in extra innings and Kansas City holding on for a 5-4 win last night despite needing to get the final out with the bases loaded. Cleveland has had six more hits in the two games and overall the offensive numbers for these teams are identical with 90 runs scored and .263 team averages. Cleveland has been the much better pitching team and the edge on the mound tonight should be significant. Justin Masterson is 3-0 on the season and he is yet to allow more than one run in any of his three starts. He owns a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and is yet to allow a home run while holding opponents to a .197 batting average. Cleveland's bullpen has some of the best numbers in the league as well with a 1.42 ERA over the last ten games. Luke Hochevar has enjoyed a solid start to the season but he has allowed 15 runs in four games and his only quality start of the season came against a weak hitting Mariners squad. The Kansas City bullpen has been very shaky in the first two games of this series and for the year owns a 4.60 ERA at home. The Indians have won in eleven of the last twelve games as favorites and this is a cheap price on the ace for the team with the best record in baseball.