SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +1.16 over SAN DIEGO
Todd Wellenmeyer has not looked good at all but this park and opposition could make every pitcher in the league look good. After being the favorite in the first two games of this series and losing, the Giants now come in as a dog and it’s not like they’re facing the second coming of Bob Gibson. They’ll face John Garland and his 1.73 WHIP in his first two starts. Garland has walked more batters than he’s struck out (10 to 9) and he remains one of the most pitchers in all of baseball and that includes little leagues. As a team the Giants are still hitting about 50 points better than the Padres and frankly, I don’t care who’s pitching and neither should you. When a tag is offered up against Garland and the Padres just take it and ask no questions for that combination will lose far more games than they’ll win. Play: San Francisco +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City –1.04 over TORONTO (1st 5 innings)
Note the 12:35 PM EST start time. The Kansas City Royals are now on notice for being a five-inning team only because of a flammable pen that has already blown five leads late in the game and you can include last night’s win in that total. Once again the Jays did it with smoking mirrors but that is unlikely to occur here. The Blue Jays are winning games by scoring runs via the long ball but Zack Greinke is a guy that does not surrender them. Greinke is off to a bit of a shaky start but you can expect a full recovery here, as he’s still one of the best in the game with some of the nastiest stuff you’ll ever see. That bode wells here against the free swinging or strikeout prone Jays. In fact, the Jays lead the league in striking out (123 times), which is 43 times more than the Royals and not close to anyone else either. Yeah, Shaun Marcum is solid as can be and very reliable too but all we’re asking is the Royals to score one or two runs in the first five and this ticket should cash. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings–1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
NY Yankees –1½ +1.16 over OAKLAND
Phil Hughes was a bit rusty in his first start of the year in terms of his control but other than that he was brilliant. He went five innings against the Angels and allowed just three hits and struck out six but five walks impacted his pitch count and he was subsequently lifted in the sixth inning after the first two batters reached. He’s a strikeout pitcher throwing in a pitchers park against a weak offense that’s struck out 27 times in the last three games. Ben Sheets and his 2.65 ERA may be due for a market correction against the AL’s elite offense. The 31-year-old right-hander has allowed a lot of contact and a lot of hard contact (11 extra base hits) over three starts. And those starts have come against The M’s, Angels and O’s, not exactly the cream of the crop. Sheets has am awful 1.71 WHIP and a BAA of .297 and his pure fortune is going to run out here. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
James Patricks Sports
Canucks vs. Kings
Canucks goaltender Longo was not pleased with his teammates keeping him at a disadvantage due to some ignorant penalties and he let them know about it. Canucks get the home ice advantage back with a road win here as the Vancouver rode the NHL's point leader, (Henrick Sedin), and the league's second highest scoring offense which features (6) players that have scored (25) goals or more the most of any team to get to this Playoff position. The Canucks aren't the defense first Canucks of years past instead opting on a go-go, open ice attack that scored the second most goals in the NHL. Vancouver is anxious to make a playoff run and they should hit the ice at the Staples Center flying. Big Game James Patrick's selection in Wednesday NHL Playoff action is Vancouver Canucks.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -150
This is actually a pretty affordable price for an ace like Roy Halladay, especially when you consider the dominance the Phillies have displayed over the Braves in Atlanta. In fact, the Phillies are 13-6 in their last 19 meetings in Atlanta. Halladay is off to a brilliant 3-0 start with a 1.12 ERA and a WHIP of 0.958. And he has been at his best on the road where he is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.56 and a WHIP of 0.937. Hudson is still a solid pitcher for the Braves, but he has had trouble navigating through Philly's loaded lineup. In fact, the Braves have dropped his last 3 starts against the Phillies. The Braves are 4-10 in Hudson's last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts period. Back Halladay and the Phillies here.
Tom Freese
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 37-14 their last 51 games with the Pirates. Pitcher Yovani Gallardo is off a good start in his last game. The Brewers are 7-2 their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is with Gallardo his last 10 starts when their opponent scored runs or less in their last game. Pittsburgh is 16-33 their last 49 overall and they are 6-20 vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 8-23 their last 31 starts made by Zach Duke vs. NL Central teams. The Bucs are 14-41 after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE -
Lee Kostroski
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates
While Yovani Gallardo is projected as an elite pitcher and now is also paid like one, he has not pitched like a front-line starter so far in 2010. The Brewers are 0-3 in games he has started and he has allowed 18 hits in 18 innings while giving up twelve runs and eight walks. Gallardo has allowed a home run in every start and though he has 15 strikeouts he has left his team in a tough situation after each of his outings. Gallardo owns a career record of 22-19 so perhaps Milwaukee has been a bit hasty in anointing Gallardo as the ace of the team.
Pittsburgh had won four straight home meetings with the Brewers before last night’s loss and the 8-1 defeat last night can be blamed on starter Charlie Morton who despite potential, has been a disaster in all three of his starts this season, last night spotting the Brewers a six-run lead while getting just three outs. That was just the second loss of the season at home for Pittsburgh, now 5-2 and the Pirates are still a game ahead of Milwaukee in the overall standings despite greatly contrasting projections for these clubs.
Both teams have had serious issues in the bullpen but the problem has been worse for Milwaukee and the Brewers will have a hard time counting on a deep start from Gallardo. In contrast Zach Duke has delivered a brilliant start to 2010. Duke has allowed just five runs in 19 innings of work and Pittsburgh is 3-0 in those games. Duke has a 2.25 ERA at home this season and he has allowed just six walks and only one home run. Milwaukee is batting just .240 against left-handed pitching so far this season so this could be a problematic match-up for the Brewers lineup.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -128
Bottom Line: Duke has been strong for the Bucs early this season, but the Brewers have had his number. In fact, the Pirates are 0-6 in Duke's last 6 starts vs. the Brewers and 8-23 in his last 31 starts vs. the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 6-1 in Gallardo's last 7 starts vs. the Pirates. Plus, Milwaukee has completely owned the Pirates, winning 24 of the last 30 meetings. We'll bet the Brew Crew tonight.
Mr. Vegas
Tigers at Angels
Detroit has been competitive, battling the Twins for first place. Starter Jeremy Bonderman has 9 strikeouts in 9 innings and has always thrown well against the Angels, with a 58-17 K/walk ratio against them. The Angels have a losing record at home as the offense hasn’t been as effective as expected. Starter Jered Weaver has struggled badly against the Tigers, with a 7.36 ERA in 25 innings getting blasted for 37 hits in 25 innings. Play the Tigers.
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: NY Yankees -138
Yes we are playing against a very good pitcher in Sheets but Hughes will keep the NYY in the game early until they get to the bullpen of the A's! The good news for NYY is they won yesterday without even hitting well, they used walks to win the last two games in fact. Patience today will be key for the NYY as they run up the pitch count for Sheets and win this one late. Great value on NYY here!
Nelly
St. Louis at Arizona Under
Arizona has been a strong 'over' team this season but the Diamondbacks have scored more the three runs just once in the last five games, coming with the great production last night against shaky St. Louis pitcher Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals really got to Arizona ace Dan Haren last night with three home runs but St. Louis is hitting just .245 on the season and had not scored more than five runs in any of the previous seven games before last night. Chris Carpenter is coming off a great start in his last outing, striking out ten and allowing just four hits and no earned runs over seven innings. Carpenter remains one of the top pitchers in the NL and the St. Louis bullpen has also been very effective. Edwin Jackson allowed just three hits and no runs over six innings in his last start and through he has just one win he has been very solid through three starts in his move back to the NL. Arizona has had trouble closing out games with several late inning collapses but St. Louis has been a very low scoring team despite the great record. 26 home runs have been hit in Arizona so far this season, a ridiculous pace that will not hold up so totals involving the Diamondbacks will be inflated. This is a very high number for any game that Carpenter is involved in and the 'under' should be the play again tonight.
Tom Stryker
LA DODGERS with Kuroda (-132) over Cincinnati
Off last night's 9-7 loss at Cincinnati, Los Angeles will bounce back nicely on Wednesday night with right-hander Hiroki Kuroda on the mound.
In two starts this season against Florida and Arizona, Kuroda has been lights out allowing only two earned runs and 15 hits in 15.0 innings of work. Hiroki's strikeout-to-walk ratio of 14-2 is impressive as well.
As a team, LA has responded with No. 18 on the mound too. The Dodgers have won eight of their last nine against teams from the NL Central with Hiroki pitching and 10 of Kuroda's last 14 starts overall including seven of their last 10 with him priced as road chalk.
Cincinnati will counter with veteran Aaron Harang. The former San Diego State Aztec brings a dismal 0-2 SU record and an elevated 7.88 ERA into today's contest. In his last start at Florida, Aaron got absolutely pounded by the Marlins allowing eight earned runs and 10 hits in just 4.0 innings of work. Rest assured, LA's hard-hitting lineup will get to No. 39 early and often.
The Reds have been ice-cold against teams from the NL West dropping 22 of their last 30 battles. To make matters worse, Cincy has dropped nine of its last 11 with Harang on the mound.
The Dodgers are a different animal coming off a straight up loss and they'll have no trouble finding plenty of offense tonight. Take LA with listed pitcher Kuroda.
Cajun Sports
New York Yankees at Oakland A’s
Selection: New York Yankees
New York looks for their sixth straight victory on Wednesday night as they face-off against the Oakland A’s at the Coliseum. The Yankees will send Phil Hughes to the bump with his 1-0 record and ERA of 3.60 while the A’s will hang their hopes on Ben Sheets who is also 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA on the year. A check of the database reveals solid technical support for the men from Gotham. The League is 143-69 since August 28, 2009 as a favorite versus a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $2935. The League is 46-16 since April 10, 2008 as a road 140+ favorite after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $2195. The Yankees are 62-29 since July 17, 2007 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $2145. The League is 34-12 since September 16, 2006 as a road favorite after a win in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings for a net profit of $1800. The Yankees are 23-6 since June 26, 2009 after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1550. The Yankees are 17-1 since June 26, 2009 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers for a net profit of $1415. The Athletics are 7-21 since September 04, 2005 at home after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1825 when playing against them. The League is 21-54 since September 01, 2009 as a dog when they are off two losses in which they never led for a net profit of $2230 when playing against them. The League is 8-30 since May 19, 2009 as a home dog after a loss in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base as a dog for a net profit of $1950 when playing against them. Lay the chalk with the men from Gotham as they grab their sixth straight win on Wednesday night in Oakland.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* New York Yankees 3 Oakland A’s 2
LT PROFITS
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
We are not normally fans of playing Run Line favorites at home, but we feel that it is an appropriate play when Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners host Kevin Millwood and the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Hernandez was probably one of the two best pitchers in the American League last season along with Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, and he has picked up right where he left off this year. Hernandez is a perfect three for three in Quality Starts with a 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 20.1 innings, with the Mariners winning all three of his starts. He has also tossed four straight Quality Starts vs. the Orioles, allowing a total of only five runs in 27 innings!
Furthermore, those Baltimore lineups he faced may actually be better than what the Orioles have this year, as this club is a disgusting 2-13 overall with a pitiful .223 team batting average, and they have scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. We do not see their bats suddenly getting well vs. a pitcher of the caliber of King Felix.
Now Millwood has actually been decent in his three starts, although he has allowed 23 hits in 18.2 innings. Still, he will need to be nearly perfect to keep the Orioles in this game, and he has been terrible in his last five starts vs. Seattle, failing to record a Quality Start while allowing an ugly 26 earned runs in only 25 innings. He allowed five, four and five earned runs respectively in his three starts vs. the Mariners last season, totaling 17 innings in those outings.
This game looks like a mismatch to us, so this is one of the few times we do not mind laying the Run Line at home.
Pick: Mariners -1.5
THE PREZ
Charlotte Bobcats at Orlando Magic
The Charlotte Bobcats are looking for the first playoff win in franchise history in Game 2 of their series vs. the Orlando Magic, and while whether or not they accomplish that feat is debatable, we do expect the Cats to scratch and claw to the finish here.
After all, Charlotte did rally to make a game of it in their 98-89 loss in Game 1 after falling behind by 22 points early. They had the natural playoff jitters early on as the post-season is a brand new experience for this expansion team, but they did play much better in the second half. Look for them to come out more relaxed in Game 2 and just play their game, and remember that the Bobcats do have the best defense in the NBA this season, allowing 93.8 points per game.
The Magic are now 35-7 straight up and 24-17-1 against the spread at home this year, but they have had a difficult time solving this Charlotte defense, as the Bobcats are actually 3-0 ATS in Orlando this season including handing the Magic one of their seven home losses. Besides that upset and Game 1 of this series, Orlando won the other meeting at Amway Arena by just a 97-92 count as 12-point favorites.
Considering that Game 1 landed right on this posted spread with the Charlotte playing like deer in headlights in the first half, we see the Bobcats covering this game with relative ease with a more focused effort from the opening whistle.
Pick: Bobcats +9
Tony George
Bobcats vs. Magic
Play: Under 186
Like the fact neither team should score 100 here. The Bobcats offense struggling. 9-3-1 last 13 in the series have gone under, and 6 out of the last 9 in this series in Orlando have gone under the total. The Bobcats held Orlando to 13 points under their last 5 game average of 111 ppg in Game 1.
John Ryan
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -3.5
3* graded play on Dallas as they take on San Antonio set to start at 9:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Dallas will win this game by a minimum of 5 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 ATS for 83.3% winners since 1996. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging 4 or more losses versus opponent in last 2 years and is an extremely well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. The SU record of this system is 27-3 so playing this game on the money line offers a solid alternative. Both teams are projected to score more than 98 points based on the model projections. SA is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Dallas is not a strong aggressive defensive team and they are one of the best passing (assists) teams in the NBA. SA simply does not match up well against a team like Dallas. They are just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good passing teams averaging >=23 assists/game this season; 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Moreover, they are just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Dallas.