Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 24

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Washington
The Cardinals look to follow up last night's 2-0 win over the Nationals and build on their 5-1 record in Jaime Garcia's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. St. Louis is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+140)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.951; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.440
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.529; Washington (Strasburg) 14.951
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+140); Over

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 16.898; Colorado (Chatwood) 15.865
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: Arizona at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.562; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.421
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-160); Over

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 16.327; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.691
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 15.101; NY Mets (Harvey) 16.670
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-165); Over

Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.620; San Diego (Volquez) 15.947
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.515; Baltimore (Stinson) 15.615
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-125); Under

Game 967-968: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.598; White Sox (Quintana) 14.874
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 13.704; Houston (Harrell) 13.925
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-105); Over

Game 971-972: Oakland at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 15.634; Boston (Lester) 16.675
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-175); Over

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 16.149; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+220); Under

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.466; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.633
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.692; LA Angels (Roth) 15.780
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

MLB Predictions

New York Mets -1.5 +148

These two teams met last night with the Dodgers winning 7-2. Los Angeles has won two straight and is now 9-10 on the season and 5-5 on the road. The Mets are 9-9 on the year and 6-4 at home. New York will send Matt Harvey to the mound, who has been maybe the best pitcher in the Major League so far this year. He is 4-0 on the season with a 0.93 ERA, .108 OBA and 0.66 WHIP. Last year he was 3-5 with a 2.73 ERA, .200 OBA and 1.15 WHIP over 10 starts with the Mets. His numbers are very impressive at home where this year he is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, .111 OBA and 0.71 WHIP. Last season at home he was 0-2 with a 1.88 ERA, .141 OBA and 1.00 WHIP. The Dodgers will activate Ted Lilly from the 15-Day DL and get him his first start of the season tonight after shoulder surgery last year. He has a solid year last year, but so far has struggled since coming back from surgery. In 4 spring training appearances he was 0-2 with a 14.00 ERA and runners hitting .395 against him. He has made three minor league starts and is 0-3 with a 6.88 ERA, .320 OBA and 1.53 WHIP. Note that the Dodgers had lost 6 straight before winning their last two, and they lost 5 of those 6 by 2 or more runs. In fact 9 of their 10 losses overall have been by 2+ runs. The Mets are 4-0 in Harvey’s starts and all of those victories they’ve won by 2+ runs. 8 of New York’s 9 victories have been by 2+ runs. Tonight we have a pitcher coming off the DL that hasn’t looked good in his Minor League starts vs one of the best pitchers in the Majors right now who will be pitching at home where he has been great. I think the Mets win here, and we’ve got the value to bet on the run line.

Bob Balfe

Rockets/Thunder Over 212

The Rockets are going to have to outscore the Thunder in the 110's in order to win this game. OKC is a great home team and they simply have too many weapons. The good news for Houston is they are a great offensive team and can put up a good amount of points. This is a game in which the Rockets have to dictate the pace in this game in order to have a shot. I don't think its possible to beat this well rounded Thunder team, but I think we get a ton of points tonight. Take the Over.

Pacers -7

Atlanta shot the ball pretty well the other night and they shot the ball well from downtown, but couldn't make a foul shot. Its the little things that you need to do to win on the road. Indiana is an excellent home team and won big without even playing that well the other night. They have the rebounding edge and get to the foul line almost ever trip down the floor. The Hawks Defense is not good enough to hold this team down on defense. Look for the Indiana to take command of this series. Take the Pacers.

Lakers/Spurs Over 186.5

The other day both teams missed some really easy buckets. The Lakers played decent on defense and I don't think they can repeat that again here tonight. I think the Spurs are going to blow them out, but as you know when betting against the Lakers you sometimes want to pound your fist through the wall with the way the refs keep them in the game. I think the Lakers are going to go with a smaller lineup and try to win by scoring a lot of points. Defense just wont cut it on the road. They need to score. Take the Over.

Yankees -120

The Yankees have no problems hitting on the road and are doing well against right handed pitching. Tampa is hitting well off left handed pitching, but they have not faced Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has been amazing this year and at this price he is worth playing no matter what the situation is. Take the Yankees.

Stephen Nover

Seattle -115

The Astros don't have much offense and now they are without center fielder Justin Maxwell, who went on the DL last night after being hit in the hand by a pitch during Houston's win against Seattle.

The Mariners can't afford to lose a second series already this season to the lowly Astros, who are 11-27 following a victory. The pitching matchup favors Seattle and the price is low enough to back the superior team.

Seattle starter Joe Saunders threw 6 1/3 shut out innings against Houston on April 8 allowing just one hit. Saunders is 1-0 career-wise versus the Astros in three starts with a 3.26 ERA.

Houston starter Lucas Harrell is plagued by wildness, base runners and giving up the long ball. He's walking 5.4 batters per nine innings, which ranks him among the bottom 10. He's allowing more than one hit per inning and has already surrendered five homers in 21 2/3 innings.

Chase Diamond

NY Mets -161

The Dodgers travel to New York to face the Mets in a prime time east coast versus west coast match up. The Dodgers and their high payroll have failed to impress so far this season. The Mets hope to keep that trend going as they send their big righty at 6-4 225, Matt Harvey to the mound.

The Mets have been respectable in the early going in spite of losing some key players in the off season, most notably Jose Reyes. If Met fans have any reason to cheer this year it is because of the man taking the hill on Wednesday night in Matt Harvey. Harvey has been absolutely dominant this season and would win the Cy Young Award if it were given out today. His numbers are amazing in the early going. 4 wins 0 losses with an ERA of 0.93. He has only given up 10 hits in 29 innings pitched to go along with 32 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting just .108 against him. Now those are dominating statistics. Offensively the Mets are lead by Daniel Murphy (.348), David Wright (.311) and a surprising John Buck (.290 7HR 22RBI). The Mets are not flashy offensively but have some solid players to score some runs.

The Dodgers will be sending Ted Lilly to the mound on Wednesday night. The veteran Lilly will be making his first start of the season. The lefty had been on the DL since having left shoulder labrum surgery. He has respectable career numbers against the Mets. He is 2-2 with an ERA of 3.68 and has only given up 31 hits in 36.2 innings pitched. He will be hoping that Adrian Gonzalez (.385), Carl Crawford (.338), and AJ Ellis (.320) will be able to manufacture some runs for him. I say manufacture because the Dodgers are very limited in the power department, especially with the high priced Hanley Ramirez still on the DL. Their leading home run man has only 2. Adrian Gonzalez leads the team in RBI with 14 but the next closest man has only 7.

As I see it, everything favors the Mets in this one. Harvey has been dominant and the Dodgers flat out have trouble scoring. I also don’t like the fact that Lilly will be making his first start after surgery in what will be a very cold night in New York. The Mets may not score a lot in this one but 1 may actually be enough.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other twice this year: the Lightning won 4-2 at home on February 19th, before the Leafs won 4-2 in Toronto on March 20th. However, because of the situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, I'm expecting a much tighter, scrappier and ultimately low-scoring battle. The Leafs are 25-15-5 overall and 12-7-3 on the road. They're coming off a 4-1 win at Ottawa on Saturday (note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of 19 this season vs. teams with losing records). Tampa Bay is 17-24-4 overall and 11-9-2 at home. It's lost six straight, most recently a 3-2 setback at Carolina on Sunday (note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in in five of six home games this year where the total is set at 6). Toronto is headed to the postseason for the first time since 2004 in most part to the dramatically improved play of goaltender James Reimer, who comes into this contest having gone 5-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA over his last seven starts: "It's unbelievable," said Reimer yesterday. "That's the hockey where you want to play always as a kid growing up. It's playoff hockey. Especially for our city, it's been a little while so I know they're anxious for (the playoffs). It's good to finally clinch," (note that Reimer has stopped 60 of 63 shots while winning his last two starts vs. Tampa Bay). A great situational play: Toronto looks to keep the momentum rolling with another solid effort, while the Lightning play for pride and something to build off for next year. I believe the table is set for a lower-scoring affair.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Jose vs. PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San JoseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Sharks clinched a playoff spot with last night's win over Dallas, but they're still battling for seeding, and can still grab the coveted fourth spot, and the home ice advantage in the first round that goes along with it. With that in mind, I don't expect to see any sort of letdown on Wednesday night.
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San Jose has been at its worst on the road this season, posting an 8-14 record, but that doesn't mean a whole lot right now, as the Sharks have gone a solid 4-3 in their last seven on the highway, including a 4-0 win in Phoenix earlier this month.
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The Coyotes are still mathematically alive in the Western Conference playoff race, but sitting five points back of eighth spot, and more importantly with a number of teams to leap-frog and only three games remaining, it's going to be an uphill battle.
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Here's goaltender Mike Smith following the team's most recent setback in Detroit on Monday, "Disappointing, obviously, is the biggest word you can use. After getting to the conference finals last year and sitting where we are this year is obviously a tough pill to swallow right now."
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I'm not convinced that desperation leads to victory on this night.
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This isn't an ideal spot for Phoenix, as it returns home following three straight on the road. In fact, the 'Yotes have played six of their last seven games away from Glendale. At this point, I can't help but think this is a team ready to be put out of its misery.
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San Jose has taken three of four meetings in this series this season, with its lone loss coming by the narrowest of margins, 1-0 in a shootout.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee at San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Brewers end Marco Estrada to the hill against a struggling Edinson Volquez in the finale of this three game series in San Diego Wednesday night, Milwaukee will do so knowing Estrada is in great KW form with 17 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts. He is also 6-3 in his nine MLB career team starts during the month of April. With Volquez having trouble finding the plate and just 2-11 with a 5.57 ERA in his last 13 team starts during the opening month of the season, look for the better arm and the better team to come out on top tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona picked up a win last night after dropping the series opener on Monday and it will be going for a big series sweep to help keep pace with the Giants and the fading Rockies. The Diamondbacks lost both series against the Yankees and Rockies but they did win the series finale of each. Ian Kennedy looks to build off his most recent start which was a quality outing at Colorado following back-to-back poor performances prior to that. He now has two quality outings in four starts and facing the Giants should notch him his third as he has had a ton of success against San Francisco, going 6-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 career starts including going 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in seven starts at AT&T Park. The Giants had their four-game winning streak snapped last night but are still a solid 8-3 at home. That is driving this moneyline up as is the fact that Madison Bumgarner has been pitching great. He is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in four starts, all of which have resulted in San Francisco wins. He has not had success against the Diamondbacks though as he has only one quality outing in his last six starts against them and last season, he went 0-3 and posted a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in three starts, allowing four runs in each. Look for Arizona to head home with some momentum from a big series victory.

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

The Royals fit another Big Play against system here for road dogs off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like the Tigers that are off a road loss scoring 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits. If the Total is 9 or less these road dogs are 0-10 straight up. For Detroit we note that home favorites of -140 or higher playing off a 1 run road loss that scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits are on an 8-0 run. The Tigers as a team are 13-1 as a home favorite of 140 or higher off a road dog loss. KC has lost 7 straight here and are 6-31 as a road dog of 140 or higher off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs. KC is 0-3 with a day off and are scoring just 3 runs per game vs Division opponents. The Tigers are averaging 6.7 runs on .349 hitting at home. They have M. Scherzer going and he has allowed 1 run in his last 11 innings vs KC. Wade Davis allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in his last start here in Detroit. See the Query below for one of the Solid Indicators we have in this game. Take Detroit.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto at Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's a bit tricky in the last week of the NHL season when teams have wrapped up playoff berths and others are out of the mix. But based upon recent efforts, there looks to be few reasons to believe Tampa Bay, which is out of the postseason mix, is about to rally after a series of dispirited efforts that include six straight losses and a 3-2 setback vs. lowly Carolina on Sunday. Moreover, the Lightning, which has failed to respond to the late-season coaching change that saw Guy Boucher terminated and Jon Cooper hired, has allowed the first goal in an alarming seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Leafs are showing no signs they want their momentum to erode before the playoffs, for which they have qualified for the first time since 2004. The Leafs have won five of their last six and have beaten Tampa Bay in six of the last seven meetings, outscoring the Lightning 26-13 in the process. Toronto GK James Reimer is also hot, Reimer, with a 5-1-1 record and 1.84 GAA over his last seven starts.

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Pick: Seattle Mariners

Seattle's pitching staff is a strength and lefty Joe Saunders is throwing well, with a 3.50 ERA his last three starts. He will like facing this last place Houston offense, 22nd in on-base percentage and 15th in runs scored. Saunders has thrown well against the Astros in his career, with a 3.26 ERA against them walking 5 in 19+ innings. The Astros are 16-36 in their last 52 home games. Starter Lucas Harrell (1-2, 4.98 ERA) is struggling and has walked 13 in 21 innings along with 24 hits allowed. And the Astros are 5-22 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter. Play the Mariners.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Pick: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It doesn't matter what game they're playing, I've never been much for playing a side I know in advance the masses are going to love. But when the numbers say that's the way to play, it's kind of silly to get stubborn and ignore what's there just to be contrary. That's the story here as the Brewers look to finish off the sweep at Petco against the Padres. Milwaukee is the hottest team in the majors right now. The Padres can't buy a win against any team not named the Dodgers.
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The pitching numbers are just plain lopsided. I'm not going overboard on Marco Estrada as he is eventually going to be burned by that extreme fly ball rate. But Estrada is pitching considerably better than the 4.50 ERA might indicate. Great BB/K ratio, which means hitters will have to beat him, as he isn't beating himself. Against a below average offense like the Padres, that's a big plus going in. He will also have the advantage of being unfamiliar to most of the San Diego hitters. Only a few Padres have faced him, and the one San Diego guy who has given him the most trouble is Cameron Maybin, who's on the DL.
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Edinson Volquez gets the start for the Padres, and he's an unmitigated disaster right now. Maybe not to the level of the 8.84 ERA, but really bad without question. It's the same old story with Volquez. He has horrible control and without lowering the BB rate, his chances of succeeding are severely limited. Add in the fact that the 2013 Volquez is also not getting his normal quota of K's, and he's a blow up waiting to happen. Volquez has also had a very bad time with several of the Brewers who figure to face him tonight.
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Milwaukee has won nine in a row, so they're certainly not a team I want to get in front of right now. They're ripping it on offense, and even the maligned bullpen has settled down lately. The Padres are mired in a five-game skid and have scored only six runs in that stretch. Obvious or not, there's only one side I can make a case for tonight, and that's the Brewers.

Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -125FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates are 4-14 off a game on the road in which they were installed as an underdog, cashing +1040 Units when playing against the Pirates in this situation. The Phillies are a perfect 7-0 for +745 Units when they are facing a team allowing 1.5 or fewer runs their last five games as long as the team scored at least one run their last time out. Play the Phillies