Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 25

MTi Sports

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Royals take to the road after an 0-10 homestand. They are struggling massively and the Indians are the best investment in the league when facing a team on a long losing streak. Specifically, Cleveland is 32-7 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last four games and 17-3 their last 20. After a relatively slow start this season, the Tribe is playing terrific ball. They are 7-2 their last nine and would love to get a win in front of the home fans. Jonathan Sanchez is lamenting the fact that he is not on the Giants. He has not made it out of the fifth inning in any start with the Royals. Derek Lowe is 1-0 at home with the Tribe with a quality start.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds send Brandon Arroyo to the mound against Barry Zito and the Giants in Game Two of this three game series in Cincinnati Wednesday evening. Arroyo enters the contest in commanding KW form with 13 strikeouts and 1 walk this season knowing he is 3-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his four home team starts against San Francisco. With that look for Zito to fall to 2-4 in his last six team starts against the Reds here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

Ben Burns

Washington @ Cleveland
PICK: Over 196.5

Don't look now but Ben Burns is TURNING UP THE HEAT. Burns was a PERFECT 3-0 on Tuesday, winning in ALL three sports. (He was 4-0 if counting free play on the Pirates.) He's poised to DO IT AGAIN on Wednesday. Ben is a PERFECT 3-0 his L3 MLB & is now a PERFECT 5-0 his L5 "Blue Chips." Both streaks on the line today!

These teams have faced each other twice so far this season. Both games stayed below the total. The first meeting had an O/U line of 201 and finished with 199 points, barely staying beneath the number. The next meeting had an O/U line of 198 and finished with 187 points. Tonight's O/U line is lower still. I feel that's providing us with solid value on the "over."

As you're likely aware, both teams were eliminated from postseason contention long ago. This will be the second last game for each team. It also marks the Cavaliers' final home game of the season. That being the case, I feel there will be little emphasis placed on playing defense. Both teams have been scoring a fair number of points recently though and each figures to want that to continue here.

The Wizards scored 101 last time out. They're averaging just shy of 103 points over their last three games. The Cavs scored 101 at Memphis last time out. That marked the third consecutive game in which they've scored at least 98 points.

Neither team has played very well defensively this season, even when there was something to play for. The Wizards allow an average of 99.7 points on the road. The Cavs allow an identical 99.7 here at home.

While the Wizards have seen the "over" go 1-0 as a road underdog of three or fewer points, the Cavs have seen the "over" go 4-2 when listed as a home favorite of three or less. Four of Cleveland's last five have topped the total. Consider the Over.

David Chan

Washington @ Cleveland
PICK: Under 196.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

If you didn't know, the Wizards have been playing pretty decently of late.

Washington has won four straight, and six of its last eight.

No such luck for the Cav's though, as Cleveland has lost five of six and 17 of its last 21.

Both teams have played to numerous "unders" in this exact position all year, as the Wizards have seen it dip below the number in seven of eight after a win by 10-points or more (101-73 win over the Bobcats on Monday), while the Cavaliers have seen it go "under" the number in 11 of 19 after allowing 105-points or more (109-101 loss at Memphis on Monday).

Five of these team's last seven in the series at Quicken Loans Arena have also gone "under" the posted number.

Washington is in Miami tomorrow night; Cleveland is in Chicago.

Expect each team to "check out" of tonight's contest early as each looks ahead to their finales, and mercifully towards next season.

All signs point to another low-scoring affair!

Freddy Wills

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

First of all I believe the Braves are about to come back to life with their bats as they now face a lefty they have had real troubles with as Ted Lilly posts a 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts in the last three years. Lilly off to a fast start so far posting a 0.69 ERA over his first two starts. Atlanta hitters have 112 combined at bats off Lilly and have only managed a .205 average and a .594 OPS in those at bats. Lilly will get a night start which he's enjoyed far better than day starts at Dodger Stadium. Last year he had a 3.29 ERA in his 23 night starts.

On the other side we have Brandon Beachy who has posted an amazing 0.47 ERA, but he's been largely lucky with a .207 BABIP and his xFIP of 3.87 suggests that ERA should be coming back to the norm here soon. Beachy was solid on the road but the Dodgers are ranked 9th with a .754 OPS vs. RHP and they are scoring more than 5.5 runs per 9 at home this year. I also like the Dodgers bullpen at home over the Braves right now as the Braves bullpen has been average thus far and have yet proved they can be the same group that was so good a year ago. I like the Dodgers as the Braves slow down from their fast start.

Notable Hot Starters:
Lance Lynn (1.42 ERA in 3GS PIT/CHC/MIL)
Cole Hamels (2.95 ERA in 3GS SD/MIA/NYM)
Trevor Cahil (2.84 ERA in 3GS ATL/COL/SD)
Jordan Zimmerman (1.29 ERA in 3GS CHC/CIN/HOU)
Kyle Drabek (2.00 ERA in 3GS KC/BAL/BOS)
Jason Hammel (2.37 ERA in 3GS CHW/TOR/MIN)
Mark Buehlre (2.66 ERA in 3GS CHC/PHI/CIN)
Barry Zito (1.171 ERA in 3GS NYM/PIT/COL)
Bronson Arroryo (2.91 ERA in 3GS STL/WSH/MIA)
C.J. Wilson (2.37 ERA in 3GS OAK/MIN/NYY)
Brandon Beachy (0.47 ERA in 3GS AZ/MIL/HOU)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Cold starter with the best chance to win in my opinion has to be Clay Bucholz who has been awful thus far posting a 9.00 ERA. Again he looked great in Spring Training and it's not like the Red Sox are struggling to score runs. Bucholz will face off against the Twins who he has a 1.38 ERA over 2 starts in the last 3 years. Speaking of the last 3 years combined he posts a 2.94 ERA in 31 road starts. He also goes up against Liam Hendricks who had an ERA over 6 in limited starts a year ago. Either way the Twins struggle to score runs and the Red Sox offense is still ranked in the Top 5 in the major leagues.

Notable Cold Starters:
Juan Nicasio (6.19 ERA in 3GS AZ/HOU/SD)
Chris Volstad (6.19 ERA in 3GS CIN/MIL/STL)
Luke Hochevar (5.87 ERA in 3GS TOR/CLE/LAA)
R.A. Dickey (5.71 ERA in 3GS ATL 2* /PHI)
PhIL hUGHES (6.75 era IN 3gs (MIN/LAA/TB)

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Clippers vs. New York Knicks
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +4

The Clippers late line move last night making them a road favorite sets them up in a solid system tonight that plays on road dogs with no rest that scored 90 or more as a road favorite, vs an opponent that scored 110 or more road. These road teams have covered 10 of the last 13 times. The Clippers have more to play for here tonight and are 4-1 on the road when the total is 190 to 195 and 11-5 vs non conference teams. The Knicks know its a long shot to get the 6 seed and may rest key starters to ready for Miami in the first round. Take the points here with the Clippers.

Jim Feist

Florida Marlins vs New York Mets
Pick: Florida Marlins

So much for the great start by the Mets! They have flopped. struggling badly since a 6-2 start. They face veteran lefty Mark Buehrle, who has been a fine acquisition for the young Marlins with a 2.66 ERA walking only 2 in 20 innings. The Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-8 in R.A. Dickey's (5.71 ERA) last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Dickey has allowed 29 base runners in 17 innings. Play the Marlins.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

I give CJ Wilson a pretty good head to head edge over Jeremy Hellickson and it looks as though the oddsmakers agree with the Halos installed as the road chalk. I like the Angels to get the best of the Rays tonight.

EZWINNERS

St. Louis Cardinals -148

The Cardinal's starting pitcher Lance Lynn is doing an excellent job filling in for the injured Chris Carpenter. Lynn is off to a 3-0 start with an ERA of just 1.42. Lynn has done an excellent job of keeping hitter off balance by mixing up his pitch sequences and I expect more of the same in this game against the Cubs. Chris Volstad, who gets the start for Chicago, is not off to a good start. Volstad is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.19 and has not won a game since July 10th of last year. I look for those struggles to continue. Play on St. Louis.

JR O'Donnell

Tampa bay Rays +100

First of all the Angels are 6-10, and million dollar man Albert Pujols is running in first gear and they are wondering, just maybe we made a mistake as he isn't getting any younger! They do send out one of their better pitchers in lefty CJ Wilson who 2-1 for a team that is 6-10, and has a 2.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Still his wins are over Minnesota and the Yankees, while he lost to Oakland. His problem is that the Angels allow 5.7 runs per game on the road. For TB, Jeremy Hellickson will take the mound, with a 2-0 record, 3.26 ERA, and has had two great outings against the Blue Jays & Yankees and one bad one vs. the Red Sox (most of the damage against the bullpen). Hellickson won one of those games because of the TB offense, and Wilson went for 112 pitches vs. Oakland in his last "6" inning performance. TB is 5-1 at home, and LAA are 2-4 away + TB scores 5.3 r/g at home and LAA surrender 5.7 r/g on the road.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado -111 over PITTSBURGH (GAME 1)

Game one of this DH gets underway at 12:35 PM EST so if you’re on board, take note of the early start. In three starts, James McDonald has a 3.45 ERA, which on paper looks like he deserves better than an 0-1 record but he actually deserves worse. McDonald’s GB/line-drive/FB ratio of 35%/27%/39% is troublesome and not far off from last year’s percentages. McDonald is not fooling anyone with just six K’s and a matching six walks in 16 innings. McDonald is going to put the ball in play, he’s never going to wow us and he’s a .500 pitcher on his best day. The Pirates and their .212 team batting average will face Juan Nicasio and his 6.19 ERA, which is another deceiving number. Two of those starts came at hitter friendly Coors but in his only road start, he threw a gem against the Astros. In two of his three starts he walked a combined one batter but a low 60% strand rate has hurt him and that’s a number that is sure to increase. Nicasio was outstanding in a two-month stretch last season and with a mid-90’s fastball and a solid groundball profile, he has all the tools to succeed at this level. He also dominates right-handers.Play: Colorado in game 1 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2)

Atlanta +108 over Los Angeles

Less than 20 games into the season and there are many buy low and sell high opportunities with pitchers that have posted unsustainable numbers. Both of today’s starters, Ted Lilly and Brandon Beachy, both qualify. LA’s Ted Lilly’s xERA of 4.67 is so far off his actual ERA of 0.69 that an immediate correction is likely forthcoming. Lilly has faced San Diego and Houston in his two starts and in 13 innings, he’s walked seven batters while striking out nine. A 92% unsustainable strand rate has aided Lilly greatly and if he gives the Braves the same scoring opportunities that he gave the Padres and Astros, his night could end early. At 36 years-old and with home-run and walk rates increasing every year, Lilly’s risk is getting higher every year as well. Beachy’s risk is a lot less despite an unsustainable 0.47 ERA. The kid thrived last year as a rookie and he has the skill set to support such productivity. When we look closely at Beachy, we see a high groundball rate of 50%, a high strikeout rate (14 in 19 IP) and a low walk rate. Incidentally, the Dodgers’ .722 winning percentage is also in for a correction.Play: Atlanta +107 (Risking 2 units)

Pass NBA/NHL

Matt Fargo

Giants @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds

After taking three of four in New York, the Giants dropped the series opener in Cincinnati last night and I expect that to carry over into tonight. San Francisco has gotten off to a slow start with an 8-9 record through 17 games and both the offense and the pitching have been underperforming. The Giants are hitting .260 which isn't horrible but they have scored only 73 runs and they have put up four runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games. They have now lost six straight meetings in Cincinnati.

The Reds are beginning to pick things up after their own sloe start as they have won four of their last five games after starting the season 4-8. They have climbed over .500 at home for the first time since starting 2-1 and they are hoping the offensive outburst from last night carries over into tonight. Cincinnati has yet to put together consecutive strong offensive showings but it gets a chance tonight in a favorable pitching matchup. Going back to last year, the Reds are 12-2 as home favorites between -110 and -150.

Barry Zito will be making his fourth start for the Giants and he has surprisingly been the staff ace so far. He has a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through three games as he has allowed two runs or less in each start which includes two quality efforts. It has been a great start but it could come crashing down here as his success against the Reds has been non-existent. In nine career starts, he has a 7.47 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and he has never won at Great American, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in five starts.

Likewise, Bronson Arroyo has gotten off to a great start this year as well. Through three starts, he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as he has tossed two straight quality outings after an average opening start against the Marlins. After a solid 2010 season, he was dreadful last year and his most impressive feat so far is that he has allowed only one homerun after allowing 46 last year and he has issued only one walk as well. He has tossed six straight quality starts against the Giants, posting a 1.81 ERA over that stretch.

Bryan Power

L.A. Clippers @ New York
PICK: New York -3.5

This is a brutal late season spot for the Clippers, who lost last night in Atlanta. That loss cost them a chance at the Pacific Division title (Lakers have now clinched 3rd seed) and now "LA's other team" is in a fourth-place tie w/ Memphis in the conference standings. The Clippers and Grizzlies will meet in the first round of the playoffs, all that's left to determine is which team will hold the home court advantage. Considering LA must play a team from the Eastern Conference also battling for playoff position while Memphis (winners of five straight) will draw an unrested Orlando team (w/ no Dwight Howard) tomorrow, things don't look very good for the Clippers.

While LA just lost in Atlanta, New York won their previous game there, 113-112, Sunday afternoon. They've now won three of four and five of the last seven. They could conceivably move up to sixth (and avoid Miami or Chicago in the 1st Rd) if they were to win their final two games and the Magic lost theirs. That scenario is certainly plausible, though Orlando hosts Charlotte tonight. But the Knicks also don't want to fall to eighth either as they are currently tied with Philly for seventh place. Carmelo Anthony is hot right now, averaging 32.2 points his last five games. With two days rest, the home team has a huge edge over the unrested Clippers.

WUNDERDOG

Chicago at Oakland
Pick: Under 7.5

These teams displayed their strengths and weaknesses last night, in a game that saw just two total runs scored. For the White Sox, it was the third shutout they have played in over their last four games, two in their favor and one against them. Their last four games have produced a grand total of 21 runs or just better than five a contest and with a day game after a night game, the only ones with rest are the starting pitchers. Oakland knows a little about shutouts themselves, having been blanked four times in their last 14 games. The White Sox have now topped the total in just five of their last 21 games and the A's just six times in their last 27. Combined, that is 11 of these clubs last 48 making it over the total. Play on the UNDER.