Larry Ness
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians
The Royals last made the postseason back in 1985 (beat the Cards that season in the World Series) and the club owns 16 sub-.500 seasons in its last 17 years (exception came when the Royals went 83-79 in 2003). Expectations were high in KC this season, as Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are a key part of an influx of young talent that has worked its way through the team’s farm system, with this talented group now arriving in the majors. This group was expected to usher in a new era of success. The Tigers were the clearly the “team to beat” in the AL Central at the start of the year but some felt the Royals just could be this division’s second-best team. So much for that. KC has lost 12 in a row since beating Oakland 3-0 on April 10, tying the third-longest skid in team history. The Royals haven't dropped 13 straight since 2006 and the club record for consecutive losses is 19, set in 2005. Kansas City is 3-14 (worst record in the majors) and only the HUGELY disappointing Angels own a worse moneyline mark, minus-$1043 to KC’s minus-$1042). The Royals have scored three runs or fewer in SEVEN of their last eight games, with cleanup hitter Eric Hosmer batting .194 with three RBIs in that stretch. "We'll break through," manager Ned Yost said. "I find it hard to believe we've lost 12 in a row, the way we are battling to the very end. That's a good sign with a young team." Yost may believe that but I’m “off the KC bandwagon” until further notice. The Indians stumbled to a 1-4 start to open 2012, batting .179. However, Cleveland's resurgence began by sweeping a three-game series in KC from April 13-15 and now face the Royals in the second contest of this three-game home set, after winning 4-3 Tuesday night. The Indians have now won EIGHT of their last 10, moving to 9-6 on the season, a mark good enough to be percentage points ahead of both the White Sox and the Tigers in the AL Central. Cleveland’s three-game sweep in Kansas City began with an 8-3 victory over tonight’s starter, Luke Hochevar, in what was the Royals' home opener. The Royals have been waiting for Hochevar, the No. 1 overall pick in 2006, to put it all together. They believe that 2012 will be that year. He showed signs of coming into his own last season, going 6-3 in 12 starts after the All-Star break, posting a 3.63 ERA (team was 7-5 in the starts), to register a career-high 11 wins. However, Hochevar is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts (team is 1-2) to open 2012, including allowing nine hits and seven ERs in just 4.1 innings of his start against the Indians back on April 13. The Indians will give the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 2-0 with 4.00 ERA in three starts this year (team is 2-1). He wasn't particularly sharp in Kansas City on April 15, allowing four runs and nine hits in five innings but was backed by Cleveland's highest offensive output of the season in a 13-7 victory. Jimenez got a 4-3 win over Oakland last Friday but allowed six hits and five walks in six innings. He only had three strikeouts and that has some worried, as he averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two seasons but is averaging just 5.5 strikeouts per nine in 2012. Still, this is the Royals and Jimenez is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in his only two career starts vs them. Meanwhile, Hochevar is 4-8 in 12 career starts vs the Indians, posting a ERA. This night games also spells bad news, as while Hochevar is 12-4 in daytime starts since the beginning of 2010, he’s 6-14 starting at night during that span. Chalk up loss No. 13 in a row for the Royals, tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
The Thunder (47-18) just do not have much to play for in this contest having secured the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Furthermore, Oklahoma City will play either Dallas or these Nuggets so head coach Scotty Brooks will be unlikely very interested in showing off any of his team's latest tricks with the playoffs starting this weekend. The Thunder have won three of their last four games after their 118-110 win versus Sacramento yesterday -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up victory. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The loss of their star 6th man James Harden certainly will not help for this contest as he recovers from the violent elbow from Ron Artest AKA Metta World Peace over the weekend. Even with Harden in the fold (except for their last two games), the Thunder have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Denver (36-28), on the other hand, is highly motivated for their remaining two games as they are fighting for the sixth seed in the Western Conference and the right to play a Lakers team that will be without their enigmatic forward in Artest who has been suspended for that series. Facing that Los Angeles team is much more appetizing that facing this Thunder team again or the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets have won four of their last five games after crushing Orlando by a 101-74 score on Sunday. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last opponent to 75 points or less. The Nuggets have also proven themselves very capable road warriors who have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 road games as an underdog. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the visitor is 4-0-1 ATS. Take a motivated Nuggets team as a small underdog in this one.
Tony George
LA Clippers +3.5
CRUCIAL GAME for both teams here but more so for LA, especially off a loss last night. I lost a premium 2 dime play on LA last night, but this game here provides an opportunity in a must win game regarding a playoff scenario that simply put is too complicated to explain in a free play writeup. Basically home court advantage in the opening playoff series for LA, who played well last night, but stunk up the 3rd quarter against Atlanta and never fully recovered in time. This is the Clippers last regular season game, and not sure NY is all that motivated in terms of winning or losing because they can pick and choose what draw they get in the playoffs with a win or loss basically, and quite frankly I think LA is the better team. Going to be hard for NY to man up and play effective defense against this high scoring team.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
LA DODGERS -110 over Atlanta: (Added) I know i have been against these dodgers when they have played the good teams, but I feel this is a good spot to back them. Ted Liily will not post an Under 1 ER for the whole year, but he is really pitching well right now, at 2-0 with an 0.69 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The Dodgers as a team have allowed just 1 rpg in his 3 starts. Ted has pitched well vs the Braves, going 5-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts vs them overall, including a 4-0 mark with a 2.20 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. The Braves offense had been red hot last week, but they have had some struggles of late, scoring just 3.3 rpg in their last 4 games of this trip, and they have hit lefty pitching at just a .235 clip on the road this year. LA has been very good at home this year, with a 7-1 mark, while hitting .293 and scoring 4.88 rpg. They will hot have an easy time of it tonight vs Brandon Beachy, who has an 0.47 ERA in his 3 starts so far. The Bullpen has not done its job behind him as he has just 2-1 record in his starts and the Braves as a team have allowed 4.3 rpg in his starts. Just like Lilly, I don't expect Brandon to have an Under 1 ERA all year long and I expect this hot Dodgers offense to get to him tonight. LA should bounce back nicely here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Dodgers are 24-3, since Sept 2008, as a favorite off a 1 run loss, if they did not lead by 3+ runs in that loss.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis -144 over CHICAGO: The Cards have had some tough luck the last 2 games as they have lost both games in the bottom of the ninth, but I feel they will bounce back nicely here. Lance Lynn gets the ball for the Cards today and he has been amazing so far. Lance has 19 pitched 19 innings so far, allowing just 10 hits, with 17 SO's vs just 4 walks. He has a 1.42 ERA on the year with an 0.74 WHIP. Pretty impressive, plus he did allow just 1 ER in 5.1 innings of work, in a 5-1 win over the Cubs back on the 14th. The Cubs offense has been struggling of late as they have put up just 3 runs in each of their last 3 games, and while they have scored 6 runs in the first 2 of tis series, 4 of the runs have been scored in the 9th. Today they will not have an easy time getting that offense going vs Lance. The Cardinal offense has also been struggling as they have averaged just 2.6 rpg on this current trip and they have put up just 4 runs vs Cubs pitching in this series. Today that offense should get going a bit as they face Chris Volstad, who has a 4.99 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Cards and in 6 career starts at Wrigley he is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA, including an 0-1 mark with a 7.20 ERA in two starts here this year. The Cards are the better team here and will look for a bigger lead in this one so their closer can't blow it again. They should be able to have good success vs Volstad, while Lynn will continue to pitch well. St louis gets some revenge with a solid win here.
Phillies/ Arizona Under 8: I like this pitching matchup between Hamels and Cahill and it should produce a low scoring games. The Phils offense did come alive last night, but they have rarely done it BB games this year, plus Trevor Cahill is a much tougher pitcher to face than Collmenter was. Trevor has a 2,.84 ERA in his 3 starts this year and he did struggle in his 1st home start in a D-Backs uniform, but I believe he will bounce back nicely vs this erratic Phils offense. Trevor has a 1.17 ERA in 1 start vs the Phils and a 1.23 ERA in 1 day start this year, while in 34 career day start he has a 3.31 ERA, compared to a 4.19 ERA in 65 night starts. Cole Hamels could be the Ace of many a staff in MLB , but because of Lee and Halladay he is 3rd on this staff. Cole has a 2.95 ERA to start the year and a 1.50 ERA in his lone road start. Cole does have a 3.71 ERA in this park and a 3.97 ERA in 62 career day starts, but he also has a 3.11 ERA when he starts with Ruiz behind the plate and he will be facing an Arizona team that has been erratic on offense as well and a team that has hit just .217 vs lefties on the year, compared to .241 vs righties. Both Pitchers are solid and should have good games vs these erratic offenses, which should keep this one around 6 runs at most.
CLEVELAND -141 over Kansas City: I agree with Brandon, The Royals will win again this year, but it won't be tonight. The Tribe is playing very well, as they have won 8 of their last 10 games. They are just 2-4 at home this year, but that record should improve vs a Royals team that has lost 12 in a row. KC's offense has really struggled, scoring just 2.6 rpg in their last 8 games, while on the road they have averaged just 3.3 rpg and have hit just .237. Ubaldo Jiminez had a couple of rough outings in his last 2 start (both on the road), but in his lone home start he did allow just 2 ER in 7 innings to the Blue Jays and he is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Royals. Luke Hochevar had just 1 bad outing so far this year, but that outing was vs the Indians in a game in which he allowed 7 ER on 9 hits in 4 innings of work. Luke is now 4-8 with a 5.81 ERA in 12 career starts vs Cleveland, including a 2-4 mark with a 5.94 ERA at Progressive. Let's also note that Luke is 13-23 with a 6.27 ERA in 45 career road starts. The Tribe offense has really struggle to hit at home (.186), but they have averaged 4 rpg in their own backyard, and besides how long will a team hit just .186 at home for? KC will win again, but it just won't be tonight.
Colorado/ Pittsburgh Over 7.5 Game 2: Both offenses came to life a bit last night and while they look sluggish in game 1 so far I expect that to turn around tonight. Charlie Morton is not a good day pitcher, with a 6.47 ERA in 20 day starts in his career and he has a 3.73 ERA at PNC park, plus a 4.15 ERA in 3 starts vs the Rockies. J. Chacin has a 3.95 ERA in 24 day appearances (19 starts) and he has a 6.32 ERA in 3 career starts vs Pittsburgh. Neither pitcher is great when pitching during the day and both offenses should be able to take advantage here in the back end of this DH. Last night I expected DD runs scored, but the team hit just 9. Today I will call for DD in runs again.
2 UNIT PLAY
CINCINNATI -126 over San Francisco: After a slow start the Reds are playing good ball, as they have won 4 of their last 5 games, which included a 9-2 pasting of the Giants last night. Their offense is really in a good groove, scoring 5.8 rpg and hitting .265 in their last 5 games. Today they face Barry Zito, who has surprised with his 1-0 1.71 ERA start, but the Reds are not a team he has done well vs in the past. Barry is 3-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 9 career starts vs the Reds, including an 0-2 mark with 7.20 ERA at GAB. I expect him to come down to earth a bit vs the Reds today. Bronson Arroyo has had a nice 1-0 2.91 ERA (0.88 WHIP) start to the year and it should continue vs a team he has had good success vs of late. Bronson is 3-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Giants, while in his last 4 starts here vs them he is 3-1 with a 1.76 ERA. The Reds are playing very well right now and have the better starter on the mound and the much better offense behind him. Look for the Reds to make it 5 in a row overall vs the Giants.
Miami -1.5 (+140) over NY METS: (Added) I like to throw at least 1 of these plays out there a day (Hit last night with Philly on RL) and this is the one I like today. Miami has struggled to score on the road this year, but they should be able to open up a bit vs a struggling R.A. Dickey, who is 2-1 on the year, but with a 5.71 ERA. R.A. has not allowed an ER in his last 3 starts vs Miami (20 innings), but he did own a 7.36 ERA in his previous 4 starts vs them. Mark Buerhle gets the nod for Miami, and while he is 1-2 on the year, he does have a 2.66 ERA in his 3 starts. Mark also has a 1.13 WHIP, while Dickey has a 1.67 WHIP so far. Look for the Miami offense to finally get going in this one, while Buerhle shuts down this Mets team that is scoring just 2.8 rpg and hitting .235 at home on the year.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Colorado -109 over PITTSBURGH (Game 1): The Rockies lost a tough one last night, but they are still the better team here. Colorado averages nearly 3 rpg more than Pittsburgh, while the Pirates have scored just 1.93 rpg and have hit just .180 at home on the year. Neither pitcher is real solid and with the advantage that the Rockies have on offense they should walk away with a good win in game 1.
Chicago/ Oakland Over 7.5: Both offenses have been sluggish in this series, but I see both offenses coming alive vs virtually unknown pitchers. Jarrod Parker has 1 career start, while Chris Sale has 3 career starts (all this year) and while that situation usually gives the advantage to the pitchers, I see both struggling vs two offenses that are looking to break out. Look for aboutb 9 in this one.
Teddy Covers
Nationals @ Padres
PICK: Under
Petco Field has been the lowest scoring ballpark in baseball since it opened, and the early season results here in 2012 have been more of the same. San Diego is 6-1-1 to the Under in their last eight at home following last night’s 3-1 loss to the Nationals. Their lineup can’t hit worth a lick, hitting a woeful .211 as a team. They’ve been held to two runs or less on eight different occasions. And they’ll be facing an elite level hurler in Jordan Zimmerman, with a 1.29 ERA through his first three starts of the year and a proven track record against the Padres, holding them to two runs in 13 innings of dominant work against them last year.
But while the Nationals starting staff has a major league leading 1.72 ERA, their offensive output remains rather anemic. That’s why the first place Nats are 11-5-1 to the Under through their first 17 games of the campaign. They’ve been held to three runs or less ten times already, still missing key middle-of-the-order bat Mike Morse. Only one starter (Jayson Werth) is hitting better than .286 and only one guy on the team (Adam LaRoche) has more than seven RBI’s. Don’t expect a breakout offensive showing today against promising Padres rookie Joe Wieland, who held the Phillies to a single run in six innings of work in his last start. Take the Under.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference with the Heat's loss at Boston last night. I believe that has set up a golden opportunity to take Chicago as a small favorite. The Bulls are one of the few teams in the league who bring it defensively every night, and I don't expect them to completely lay off the gas in this one. Chicago is tied with the Spurs for the No. 1 overall seed, which would come into play if both teams made the Finals.
The Bulls have been without Derrick Rose for a good chunk of the season. The projected starting 5 coming into the season has played just 14 games together. Rose has missed 16 of the last 20 games. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has already hinted that we will see the starting five in action in this game.
While the Bulls are looking to find their rhythm heading into the playoffs, the Pacers have nothing to play for. There is no reason for them to match the Bulls intensity, as they need to save up their energy for the playoffs. Danny Granger is expected to miss this game and I don't expect their starters to play a lot of minutes.
I look for the Bulls to be up double-digits at halftime. If that happens, Indiana will throw in the towel in the second half. This is one play you don't want miss out on!
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -125
With Tuesday's 9-2 defeat, the Giants have now lost their last 6 in Cincinnati. Keep in mind that those 6 defeats have come by an average of 4.3 runs.
While Zito is pitching well, I expect him to come back down to earth here against a team he has posted a 7.43 ERA against in 9 career starts. Arroyo has a career ERA of just 3.02 in 9 starts versus San Francisco.
The Giants are 3-9 in Zito's last 12 starts as an underdog while the Reds are 4-0 in Arroyo's last 4 starts as a favorite.
It's also worth noting that the Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a home favorite and 12-2 in their last 14 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. We'll bet the Reds.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -125
The Texas Rangers are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the New York Yankees tonight. I believe the Rangers have the edge on the mound in this one with Scott Feldman over Phil Hughes.
Feldman has been used as a fill-in starter in recent years, but this guy has been underrated throughout his career. He has allowed just one hit in 2 1/3 innings thus far this season for Texas. Feldman is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees.
Hughes just simply hasn't panned out in New York, and he's running out of chances. The young righty is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in three starts this season after going 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.487 WHIP last year. Hughes has given up 11 earned runs and 21 base runners over 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Texas for an 11.42 ERA and a 2.421 WHIP.
The Yankees are 0-8 in Hughes' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 31-7 in their last 38 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is 40-16 in their last 56 home games. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -112
The Braves are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog, 3-13 in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss, 21-6 in their last 27 home games and 28-7 in their last 35 games as a home favorite. The Dodgers are also 5-0 in Lilly's last 5 starts and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a favorite. Take LA.
Vegas Experts
White Sox at Athletics
Play: White Sox
Chicago sends red hot Chris Sale to the mound tonight, and all he's done is allow three runs or less in all three of his outings this season. Now he'll face an Oakland lineup that has gone six consecutive games being held to single-digits in the base hits category, and coming off a tough 2-0 loss last night we look for the Sox bats to catch fire against an inexperienced Jarrod Parker. Sale continues to shine as the Sox roll!