SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee (2-2 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS)
The short-handed Bucks, seeded sixth in the East but without star center Andrew Bogut, aim to keep the pressure on the third-seeded Hawks as this best-of-7 first-round series returns to Philips Arena.
After dropping Games 1 and 2 at Atlanta – losing both by 10 points – Milwaukee rebounded with a pair SU and ATS victories in Games 3 and 4 on its home floor. The Bucks rolled to a 107-89 as a one-point favorite Saturday, then claimed a 111-104 win as a two-point underdog Monday. Brandon Jennings (23 points), John Salmons (22) and Carlos Delfino (22) paved the way in Game 4, as Milwaukee shot a stout 55.1 percent (38 of 69).
Atlanta got a game-high 29 points and nine assists from Joe Johnson in Monday’s defeat, and the Hawks shot a respectable 47.5 percent, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Bucks from tying the series. Although Atlanta hit 18 of 21 free throws (85.7 percent), it sent Milwaukee to the line 32 times, with the Bucks knocking down 28 (87.5 percent).
The Bucks are 18-25 SU on the road this year – getting outscored by less than half a point per game on average (95.5-95.1) – but they are 28-14-1 ATS in those contests (despite failing to cover in Games 1 and 2 in Atlanta). The Hawks are 36-7 SU (27-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.3-95.7).
Atlanta is 5-3 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings with Milwaukee, with the losses in Games 3 and 4 coming after a four-game ATS run by the Hawks in this rivalry. The chalk is on a 12-4-1 ATS tear (4-1 ATS last five), and the SU winner is 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 clashes (including 4-0 this series, with the home team winning and cashing in all four contests).
Also, in Atlanta’s last 22 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 21-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 10-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 11 overall.
Despite their strong efforts in Games 3 and 4, the Bucks are still on a 3-8-1 ATS purge in first-round playoff games (2-4 last six) and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 as a postseason pup. That said, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 36-14-2 overall, 20-6-1 on the highway, 12-3 as a road pup, 16-5-1 after a day off and 38-15-2 after a spread-cover.
The Hawks remain on pointspread sprees of 5-2 overall, 7-2 at home (all as a favorite, 9-4 against the Central Division, 9-3 against winning teams and 5-1 laying points, though Atlanta has also dropped four straight ATS decisions following a SU loss and is in a 1-4 ATS rut after a non-cover.
Monday’s game sailed over the posted price of 189, and the total has now gone high in 11 of the last 12 meetings overall in this rivalry and five of the last six in Atlanta.
In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 7-2 overall, 10-1 against winning teams, 15-4-2 in first-round playoff games (7-1 last eight) and 10-1 against winning teams. Meanwhile, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 7-1 against winning teams and 21-7 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Utah (3-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-3 SU and ATS)
The fifth-seeded Jazz look to close out the No. 4 seed Nuggets when the two Northwest Division rivals square off inside the Pepsi Center for Game 5 of this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round matchup.
After stealing Game 2 in Denver, Utah returned to Salt Lake City and swept Games 3 and 4, capped by Sunday’s 117-106 rout as a 2½-point favorite. The Jazz shot 53.2 percent from the floor and got 31 points and 13 rebounds from Carlos Boozer, plus 24 points and 13 assists from Deron Williams and 21 points from C.J. Miles. Denver All-Star Carmelo Anthony tallied 39 points and 11 rebounds, but Anthony got little help from his teammates.
Despite a three-point win in Denver in Game 2, Utah remains just 22-21 (24-17-1 ATS) on the road this season, including 5-5 (SU and ATS) in its last 10. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 35-8 inside the Pepsi Center, but a mediocre 21-21-1 ATS. Denver has won 12 of its last 15 at home (8-7 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The season series is tied 4-4 (3-3-2 ATS), and while Utah is 3-1-2 ATS in the last six clashes, the Jazz are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six visits to Denver. The chalk is riding a 27-12-3 ATS run in the last 42 meetings (3-1 ATS in this playoff series).
Utah is on ATS slides of 1-5 as an underdog and 3-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, but the Jazz are also on positive ATS runs of 34-13-3 overall, 10-3 on Wednesday, 7-1-2 after two days off and 4-1 in first-round playoff games. The Nuggets are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 1-5 against winning teams, 4-9 as a favorite and 3-7 after a straight-up loss, but they are on pointspread upticks of 12-5-1 on Wednesday, 8-3 as a playoff favorite, 9-1 at home against teams with winning home records and 5-2-1 after two days off.
The Jazz have stayed below the posted total in six of eight after a straight-up win and three of four on Wednesday, but they’re on “over” runs of 34-16-1 as a road underdog, 5-0 after two days off, 21-6 against Northwest Division teams and 7-3 as a playoff underdog. Denver is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 10-4 on Wednesday, 7-2 at home against teams with a winning road record, 7-3 against Northwest Division teams and 5-1 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the “over” has cashed in five of the last six meetings overall, five straight in the Mile High City and three of four in this playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (14-6) at Detroit (11-10)
The Twins continue their nine-game A.L. Central road trip when they send Scott Baker (2-2, 4.81 ERA) to the Comerica Park mound while the Tigers counter with Max Scherzer (1-1, 2.62) in the middle game of a three-game series.
Minnesota began its road trip by taking two of three in Kansas City over the weekend, then opened this series with Tuesday’s 2-0 victory behind a dominating pitching performance from Francisco Liriano (eight shutout innings, 10 strikeouts. The Twins are 14-5 overall and 8-2 on the highway since losing at the Angels on Opening Day. Additionally, Ron Gardenhire’s team is on surges of 42-20 in divisional contests, 31-12 against right-handed starters and 5-1 in the second game of a series.
Detroit has been playing average baseball of late, alternating wins and losses in its last six games and going 5-8 in the last 13. The Tigers have played just seven home games, winning four of them, and they’ve dropped nine of 13 games at home against right-handed starters.
Minnesota staged a furious rally over the final week of the 2009 season to catch the freefalling Tigers in the divisional race. Then in an epic one-game playoff in Minneapolis, the teams went into the 12th inning tied at 4-4 when Detroit scored in the top of the 12th to take the lead, only to see the Twins answer with two in the bottom of the inning to steal the 6-5 victory and the division title.
Including the one-game playoff and Tuesday’s contest, the Twins are now on a 13-7 roll against Detroit since the start of last season, with the home team winning 13 of the last 19 contests.
Baker is coming off his worst out of the season, as he got drilled for six runs on 10 hits in a 5 2/3 innings of Thursday’s 8-1 home loss to the Indians. Prior to that, the right-hander had surrendered a combined three runs on 12 hits in 14 innings in victories over the White Sox and Royals. He’s 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two road starts, and with Baker on the bump, the Twins are on positive runs of 11-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 20-8 against the A.L. Central and 7-0 in the second game of a series, but they’ve lost nine of his last 11 as an underdog.
Bakers started the one-game playoff against Detroit in October and gave up three runs on six hits in six innings. However, on the season, he went just 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in five starts versus the Tigers. For his career, he’s 5-4 with a 4.34 ERA in 17 starts against Detroit, including 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA in six games at Comerica Park.
Scherzer was traded from Arizona to Detroit in the offseason, and he hasn’t disappointed his new team, giving up just seven earned runs in 24 innings with a 17-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, Detroit has lost three of the four games, and going back to last year with the Diamondbacks, Scherzer’s squads are just 1-7 in his last eight trips to the mound.
Three of Scherzer’s four games this season have been on the road. In his lone start in Motown, he gave up five runs (two earned) in five innings of a 10-5 loss to Kansas City. The right-hander has never faced Minnesota in his young career.
Minnesota carries “under” trends of 5-0 against winning teams and 3-0-2 on Wednesday, but is otherwise on “over” runs of 12-6-2 versus A.L. Central foes, 4-1-2 with Baker on the mound overall, 19-7-2 when Baker starts against divisional foes and 4-0-1 when Baker pitches on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Detroit is on “over” stretches of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 versus A.L. Central foes and 7-3-1 against right-handed starters, but the under is 14-4-1 in its last 19 on Wednesday.
In this rivalry, the over in surges of 3-1-1 overall, 5-2-1 in Detroit and 4-0 with Baker facing the Tigers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (12-9) at Tampa Bay (14-5)
Dallas Braden (3-0, 2.77) looks to continue his red-hot start to the season when he returns to the mound to lead the A’s against James Shields (2-0, 3.96) and the Rays as these squads conclude a quick two-game series at Tropicana Field.
After a travel day Monday, Oakland kicked off a six-game road trip (Tampa Bay and Toronto) with Tuesday’s 8-6 loss to the Rays. The A’s got off to a blistering 9-3 start, but have cooled a bit in losing five of their last eight, and they’ve also dropped three straight on the road. Going back to last year, Oakland has lost eight of 11 on the highway, and they’re also in slumps of 1-4 on Wednesday, 1-4 in the second game of a series and 2-10 versus winning teams.
Tampa Bay has now won 12 of its last 14 games – with 11 of the 12 victories coming by multiple runs – but the team has actually been more successful on the road (9-1) so far than at Tropicana Field (6-4). Still, the Rays remain 116-53 in their last 169 home games and they’re on additional runs of 21-7 overall, 5-0 on Wednesday and 38-13 in the second game of a series, but Joe Maddon’s club has lost 17 of 25 against winning teams and 14 of 21 to A.L. West foes.
Braden has been dominant from the get-go this season, delivering four straight quality starts, including an impressive 4-2 home win over the Yankees on Thursday, as he surrendered just two runs on six hits in six innings. The southpaw has walked a single batter in all four games while striking out 18. The A’s have won five straight games behind Braden going back to last year, and with last week’s win over the Yankees, they’re 5-1 in his last six starts against the A.L. East.
Braden’s lone road start this year came in Anaheim on April 11, and he gave up three runs on five hits in six innings en route to a 9-4 win over the Angels. Last year, the 26-year-old Phoenix native went 2-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 10 starts on the highway. Braden has faced the Rays six times (five starts), going 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA (2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts at The Trop). In four starts versus Tampa since 2008, he’s allowed seven runs in 23 2/3 innings (2.66 ERA), with the A’s winning three times.
Shields cruised to a 10-2 victory at the White Sox on Thursday, giving up two runs on six hits in seven innings. The right-hander has gone at least six innings in three of his four outings, with the Rays winning all three of those games. Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Shields’ last five starts overall dating to last season, but it has lost seven of his last 10 at home and five of his last six against the A.L. West.
Shields has not recorded a decision in two home starts this year, giving up five runs in 11 1/3 innings (3.97 ERA). Last year, he was 6-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 18 starts at Tropicana Field, and in two contests against Oakland (both at home) he gave up just three runs in 14 2/3 innings (1.84 ERA), failing to get a decision in either game with the Rays losing both by scores of 4-1 and 7-3. Prior to that, Tampa Bay had won five straight games against the A’s behind Shields, who is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA in eight lifetime starts versus Oakland.
Oakland is on “under” runs of 9-5 overall, 4-2 on the highway, 7-4 against right-handed starters, 9-4 versus the A.L. West, 8-3 on Wednesday and 16-5 in the second game of a series. However, the over is 4-1 in Braden’s last five home contests and 5-2 in his last seven versus the A.L. East. Meanwhile, it’s been all “overs” for the Rays, including 5-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-0 versus the A.L. West, 5-2 versus lefty starters, 11-2 against winning teams and 9-3 with Shields starting.
Lastly, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams (all in Tampa), and the over is 3-1-1 in Braden’s last five starts against the Rays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 4/28
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8.5 with a total of 191. No one is happier with this change of venue than the Hawks, who crushed the Bucks twice at home before going on the road and just getting outplayed for all 96 minutes. This Atlanta team just seems like the same old story, yet again. Very strong at home, and can't win on the road, even against a completely out-classed opponent like Milwaukee. I'm curious to see how the world feels about this series, now. The Bucks dominated the Hawks in those games in Wisconsin, and just shot the heck out of the ball. The question is whether some of that confidence they built rolls over into these road games. I'm inclined to think Atlanta gets the juices going again, and they win this game, but 8.5 is a huge number. The dilemma we face when making a call on this one is whether this line is high because Atlanta is going to really dominate, or if it's high because folks assume Atlanta is going to dominate. Tough call, but I happen to think the Hawks squeak by with a low double-digit win. It won't be an easy cover, but we'll see 10-11 points. The total of 191 is intriguing, if only because the last game hit 215 on a posted mark of 189.5, and only got adjusted by a point and a half. That has to make you think the oddsmakers are expecting a poorer shooting night, and I'll run with that little tip of the hand. Lean to the Under.
Jazz @ Nuggets - Denver by 6.5 with a total of 215. This is another desperation game, and we might get some additional value on whichever side we like after we see how a team like Dallas plays last night in a similar spot. I'm a little surprised at how high this line came out, but a lot of that is because of the desperation spot being factored into the line. Denver has been positively embarrassed in each of the last three straight by the Jazz, and they just showed almost no heart in trying to fight from behind. Honestly, this series is similar to the Dallas series if only because one team is up 3-1. Beyond that, I'm not sure there's all that much in common. Dallas has been IN just about every game, but seemed to hit one cold spell that cost them games. Denver just seems to give up the moment Utah goes on a little run, showing no heart, and now the Nuggets locker room is getting called out by its superstar, Carmelo Anthony. So, can the Nuggets "man up" and get a home win? Well, they certainly shoot the ball better at home, but they're just not playing any defense, so it's tough to see them covering 7 points even if they win. We also know Denver is going to want to bring the fireworks here, since their best shot of winning the game is opening things up. Utah is going to be the team that fights harder, and pushes you around a little bit more, so if Denver can open up the game, make things wild, they can win, and could potentially even cover. If you like Denver, you have to like the Over. If you like Utah, you don't necessarily have to like the Under. Thus, no real lean on the side yet, but slight lean to the Over. Potential notes on these leans could be updated in due time.
DUNKEL INDEX
Milwaukee at Atlanta
The Bucks look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9)
Game 537-538: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.033; Atlanta 121.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9); Over
Game 541-542: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.324; Denver 124.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 215
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under
MLB
Cincinnati at Houston
The Reds look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 16.171; Florida (Robertson) 15.225
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.389; Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.781
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ely) 14.865; NY Mets (Maine) 14.729
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 957-958: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.501; Cubs (Dempster) 16.619
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-200); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-200); N/A
Game 959-960: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Benson) 15.881; Colorado (Smith) 15.029
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 11
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.224; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 15.242; Houston (Paulino) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under
Game 965-966: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.082; St. Louis (Garcia) 15.222
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.151; Kansas City (Meche) 16.297
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 16.204; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 971-972: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.582; LA Angels (Santana) 15.229
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.486; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.468
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-225); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-225); Over
Game 975-976: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.705; Toronto (Cecil) 14.572
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.556; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.333
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+145); Under
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.805; Texas (Harden) 14.179
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under
NHL
Montreal at Washington
The Capitals look to clinch the series and take advantage of a Montreal team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Washington is the pick (-310) according to Dunkel, which has the Caps favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310)
Game 19-20: Montreal at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.693; Washington 11.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-310); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-310); Over
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
When the Reds send Aaron Harang to the hill against Bud Norris and the Astros in Houston tonight they will do so knowing Harang has dropped four of his last five team starts against the 'Stros, including his last two in this park. With Norris 4-1 in his last five home efforts, look for Harang to hang himself for the sixth time in his last seven April starts here tonight.
MTi Sports
Red Sox at Blue Jays
Prediction: Over
The Blue Jays are 5-0 OU when Brett Cecil starts as a 140+ dog and the Red Sox are 5-0 OU when Jon Lester starts on the road after throwing more than 100 pitches. Also, Boston is 7-0 OU as a road 140+ favorite in the last game of a series and Toronto is 8-0-1 OU as a home 140+ dog after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Take these two OVER.
Steve Merril
Braves vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8.5
Jaime Garcia has been a surprise for the Cardinals. The lefty gets his fourth start of the season on Wednesday night when St. Louis hosts Atlanta. Garcia is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA with all three of those games going Under the total. Garcia has given up just five runs in 19 innings of work this season. His strong start should continue in this game as only one guy on the Braves, Nate McLouth (0-1), has faced the left hander. Atlanta’s offense is slumping as they’ve scored just 21 runs in their last 10 ballgames. During that stretch, they’ve gone Under in eight of those ten games. Garcia is backed by a bullpen that has a 2.82 ERA and has only blown one save so far this year. The St. Louis offense hasn't been much better than Atlanta’s. The Cardinals have scored 12 runs over their last five games and are hitting just .244 at home. Kenshin Kawakami gets the start for Atlanta and he's 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA. But in his last start, the righty pitched well as he only gave up three runs and six hits in six innings of work against the Mets. The right hander has yet to face the St. Louis offense which gives him an edge, especially against a struggling lineup. With two slumbering offenses facing pitchers they’ve never seen, we expect a low-scoring game tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Jazz vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 215
These 2 have played over 7 of the last 8 here in Denver. The Nuggets have gone over 10 of 14 times off a loss of 10 or more points and the Jazz have gone over 16 of 20 times vs divisional opponents. Best of all is a system that calls for the over tonight . Play the over for all rested road dogs of 5 or more points, that were home favorites of 5 or more in their last game and scored 110 or more and shot 45% or higher from the field vs an opponent that scored 100 or more as a dog of 5 or more. This system has cashed 11 of 13 times. Look for another high scoring game here tonight.
Freddy Wills
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -1.5
The Phillies have really struggled as of late and scoring just 3 runs in the first two games of the series there is some cause for concern considering they are now going up against the leagues best pitcher in Lincecum. Lincecum has been dominant as he's 4-0 wiht 27 IP and a 1.00 ERA in 4 starts this year. He has a 1.24 ERA in his last 4 starts vs. the Phillies with 32K's in 29 IP. The Phillies have a .233 average scoring just 3.53 R/9 in their last 10 games vs. RHP. The bullpen has been dominant to back up Lincecum with a 1.82 ERA in their last 10 games averaging 3IP. The Phillies on the other hand have a pitching problem of their own starting with the bullpen that has a 6.00 ERA over the last 10 games. Cole Hamels makes the start and boy has he struggled especially on the road and during the day. Day starts a year ago Hammels had a 5.44 ERA. The Giants are scoring 6.75 runs per 9 innings at home and batting .348 vs. LHP. Hamels in 3 starts in San Fran has gone 19 innings giving up 24 hits 7 BB and 13 ER for a 6.16 ERA. Phillies have gone 3-8 in their last 11 meetings with the Giants.
BIG AL
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
It's hard to imagine, but 22-year-old Mike Leake has actually been the Reds most consistent starter so far in 2010. Originally thought to be no more than a place-holder until Aroldis Chapman is ready to emerge from the Minor Leagues, Leake has now firmly implanted himself into the Cincinnati rotation and the 22-year-old righthanded rookie just won his first Major League start in his last outing against the top offensive club in the majors, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Leake has shown progressively more control in each of his three starts as he walked seven in his first outing against the Cubs, five in his next start at Pittsburgh, and then finally just a single free pass in the latest one against L.A. What makes Leake's accomplishments this season even more impressive is the fact that he has gone straight to the Majors without a single appearance in a Minor League uniform. The Reds dominated this series last season, taking 12 of 16 games from the 'Stros. Take Cincinnati.
DAVID CHAN
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Take the Tigers and Max Scherzer over the Twins and Scott Baker on Wednesday.
This game looks to open as something of a toss-up; I think the Tigers have the advantage.
Baker is the more established, “name” pitcher after Scherzer lost his prospect status to nervousness about his arm and a shoulder problem. Scherzer hasn’t missed much time, though, and he’s still just 25. This season he’s pitched just as well as Baker. Scherzer’s WHIP so far is 1.17.
Baker has always been a flyball pitcher, and that’s what stops him from being a true ace, even with elite command. Most times, he’s overvalued. His WHIP through four starts is 1.32. Passable, but nothing to hang your hat on.
Scherzer can out-pitch Baker here in the second game of this series. Detroit is coming home after an 11-game road trip that finished with four games in Texas and four more in Anaheim: an eight game stretch where the Tigers scored at least four runs seven times.
Jim Feist
Athletics vs. Rays
Play: Over 8½
Tampa Bay is an easy home run park and the Rays have the top offense in the AL. Oakland is in town this week with a much improved offense. They just scored 22 runs in three games against Cleveland, and that was in a huge park like Oakland. Tampa Bay is much easier on hitters and tougher on pitchers. Rays righty James Shields hasn't been sharp, allowing more hits than innings pitched. The last 5 home games the Rays are 4-1 over the total. Play the Athletics/Rays Over the total.
EZWINNERS
New York Yankees -201
The Yankees ace starting pitcher CC Sabathia has owned the Orioles in his career. Sabathia is 9-1 with a 2.55 ERA in fourteen career starts against Baltimore. Sabathia is currently 2-1 this season with a 3.00 ERA and even though he took the loss on Thursday against the Angels, he has looked solid in all of his outing except for the season opener at Boston. Baltimore starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie is only 3-6 lifetime against the Yankees with an ERA of 4.78. So far this season Guthrie is keeping the Orioles in every game but is getting little run support and little help from his bullpen. I expect Guthrie to get hit hard by the Yankees in this game and a few runs of support should be enough for CC to pick up the win. The Orioles are only 5-21 in Guthries last twenty six starts against the American League East and New York has won 20 out of the last 27 meetings between these two teams. I expect that domination to continue in this game. Play on New York.
Brad Diamond Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
This Wednesday, the Phillies look to catch a shooting star and finish the extended road trip on a winning note. However, the Giants mound edition has "The Freak" hurling, and that pretty much tells you the basic story. With Cole Hamels (2-2, 5.11) on the hill for Charlie Manuel's club, you might think the visitor would have a legit shot, but the depreciating lefty is having another down year. RHP Lincecum (4-0,1.00) is 6-2 with 3.38 ERA life time versus Philly. In the series, Hamels has been successful against the Giants, but the Phillies are just 1-6 (before Tuesday) last seven times versus San Francisco. The Giants have won 5 in a row behind Lincecum and 22 of 30 overall in his home starts. The Phillies just at 1-5 in game #3 of a series behind Cole Hamels.
Play on: SF Giants over Philadelphia
James Patrick Sports
Jazz vs. Nuggets
Denver is (33-10) Over the Total ATS when they post (105) points or more in a game and they should have no problem surpassing that number in this game. Their problem this week has been keeping Utah under those types of numbers as well.. Big Game James Patrick's Wednesday selection is Jazz - Nuggets Over the Total.
Bobby Maxwell
Utah at DENVER (-7)
I'm on an 85-68-3 run with my FREE plays with a comp winner coming tonight in the NBA playoffs as I go with the Nuggets at home as they take on the Jazz in Game 5 of their Western Conference series.
After the two big wins in Utah, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves, but you know they aren’t the greatest road team and the Nuggets are fuming mad at how they looked and how they played, so they’ll come out motivated to win this one in a big way. The Nuggets were considered the second-best team in the Western Conference much of the season, but a late season swoon knocked them down to the fourth see and put this in this tough matchup with Utah.
Carmelo Anthony had 39 points on Sunday but it wasn’t enough to avoid the 117-106 loss when the Nuggets were 2 ½-point underdogs in Utah. Now they are at home where they are 35-8 this season and play with another level of enthusiasm and ability.
The home team has gone 3-1-2 in the last six games between these two and the favorite is on a 27-12-3 ATS run in the last 42 matchups.
This is the type of game where you’ll see all the Nuggets pitch in. So expect a good game from Nene in the middle, and especially J.R. Smith who thrives in these types of situations and will deliver with his outside shot tonight.
Plus, figure the Jazz have to be feeling confident knowing they have the Game 6 back in their house in the back pocket. They know they’ll be in front of their people for that one and can still clinch this series in Utah. So they might now have the urgency and the fight they normally would.
I’m laying the chalk and we’ll see Denver play its best game of the series. Play the Nuggets tonight.
3♦ DENVER