Karl Garrett
Boston at TORONTO
G-Man on a 4-1 free play run the last 5 days.
Rare under last night for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, so tonight I look for the hitters to once again get their hitting shoes on, and for Boston and Toronto to slip over the posted total.
Last night's low-scoring game snapped a streak of 3 straight Boston overs. Boston has been playing them high of late, as 6 of their last 9 games have landed in the over column.
As for Toronto, the Jays have played 3 of their last 5 over the posted price.
Jon Lester found a groove his last time out, blanking the Orioles for 6 innings, but lets be real, Baltimore is not a very good team right now. Prior to those 6 scoreless, Lester had surrendered 11 runs in 11 innings of work.
His counterpart Brett Cecil has made one start this season, and did allowed 4 runs in 7 frames of work.
Last year Cecil allowed 12 runs in his 9 innings of work against the Sox.
I say we see some runs tonight, as Boston and Toronto go over the total.
3♦ OVER
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
Home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and ATS covers by the home side. That includes two double-digit winners by the Hawks here in Atlanta in Games One and Two. As bad as Atlanta looked in Milwaukee, it was really their defense that let them down, allowing 51% and 55% shooting in those road losses. We think things get back to normal for the Hawks here, as they were an excellent home team going 36-7 SU and winning by 8.5 points per game. Hawks go up 3-2 in the series with another big win here tonight!
Play on: Atlanta Hawks
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves +145
Bottom Line: Look for the Braves to end their losing streak tonight. Plays against any team (ST LOUIS) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) - NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), are 58-37 since 1997, 15-6 the last 3 seasons and 25-12 the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Cards have had trouble closing out series'. In fact, they are just 4-10 in their last 14 game 3's of a series. They are also only 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Braves tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +1.05 over FLORIDA
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Kevin Correia has been rock solid over four starts thus far and that includes a start in both Cincinnati and Arizona, two of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. Correia has allowed just 17 hits in 23 frames for a BAA of .202. His 1.13 WHIP is also impressive, as is his strikeout rate of 22 batters in 23 innings. Correia has won his last three starts while allowing only four runs in 17 innings and he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. Nate Robertson allowed six runs in his only home start this year against the Reds. Robertson is a career stiff that’ll throw a good game from time to time but more often than not he’ll allow four or five runs. His command is average, his career ERA is 4.91 and that’s over a span of 173 starts. Nate Robertson is one of the more unappealing favorites in the league and when he is the chalk it’s recommended to go against him because his career record of 53-70 and career ERA of 4.91 is a true indicator of who he is. Play: San Diego +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.41 over MILWAUKEE (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Pirates got an important win last night after going through what might be the roughest stretch any team will go through this year. The Pirates were outscored by an incredible count of 55-12 over a seven-game losing streak before last night’s 7-3 win. A single win will do wonders to a team’s psyche and morale. Even in that 17-3 loss on Monday the Pirates showed some signs of breaking out, as they had eight hits and left 11 runners stranded. This afternoon they’ll face a reliever by the name of Chris Narveson. Narveson has appeared in nine games this season, all in relief, and only twice in those nine games did he not allow a run. In fact, in those two games he didn’t allow a run he was asked to get one out only. In 10 innings of relief he’s allowed 17 hits and walked seven for an off the charts WHIP of 2.40, a BAA of .381 and an ERA of 7.20. Frankly, it does not matter who is pitching for the Brewers, as this choice is all about playing against Narveson. Play: Pittsburgh +1.45 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.33 over Atlanta
The Braves are a team is serious trouble. They blew two late leads in this series already and have now dropped seven in a row. The Braves offense is hitting a measly .228 on the year and that’s after facing a whole slew of stiffs that include guys like Kyle Kendricks, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Jonathon Niese to name a few. Looking at the Braves line-up and it’s easy to see why they’re losing. Nate McClouth is hitting .149, Troy Glaus is batting .200, Jason Heyward is down to .224, leadoff man Yunel Escobar is hitting .192, Chipper Jones is batting .259 and Melky Cabrera is hitting .179. Now the Braves will face a pitcher they’ve never seen and that can’t work in their favor. Jamie Garcia has oonly allowed 12 hits in 19 frames and has a BAA of .179 to go along with an impressive ERA of 1.42. Two starts ago when Garcia faced the Mets, another weak hitting line-up, he threw a seven-inning, one-hit gem. The Card should easily have its way with Braves starter, Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami has just six k’s in three starts this season and that reveals he isn’t fooling anyone. In his last two starts he faced 50 batters combined and 27 of them flew out while just 15 hit the ball on the ground, another troubling indication of potential disaster. The Braves pen is a mess, the whole team is reeling big time and it sure does not figure to end here. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +1.06 over TORONTO
Speaking of teams that are reeling and one need not look further than the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost five straight and when they don’t go yard they don’t score runs. The best news for Red Sox backers is that the Jays will face a struggling Jon Lester here but there’s no reason to worry about Lester’s slow start. He’s faced some of the top hitting teams in the AL and he’s just too good to sustain his bad run much longer. Lester has dominated the current crop of Jays hitters and this one should be no different. On the other side is Brett Cecil and the current Red Sox hitter’s has had no trouble figuring him out. Cecil faced the Red Sox twice last year and all they did was hit .415 off him to go along with seven bombs. The Jays are 0-2 at home against lefties and despite his slow start, Lester is one of the best lefties in the game and will very likely dominate this line-up again. Play: Boston –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON –2.82 over Montreal
The only reason to make this wager would be if you bet on the Canadiens to win the series after game five at odds of 8-1. This is simply a hedge bet to free-roll on the Canadiens and that’s all there is to it. Do not count the Canadiens out here, as they have a great chance to knock off the Caps. They’ve actually played better in Washington than they have at home and if not for a couple of bad bounces, the Caps would already be watching the playoffs from the rail. All the pressure in the world is on the Caps for this one and in a similar situation last season, that is, a game seven at home, the Penguins blew away this host. Now, I’m not comparing the Canadiens to the Penguins but Montreal has been the better team in Washington and will in no way be intimidated in this setting. The Habs carry a ton of momentum, a hot goalie and no pressure whatsoever into this game seven while the Caps blew its chance to close out the series in game five and are now feeling very uneasy. Varlamov could also crack under this pressure. Anyway, we’ll root for the Canadiens and the worst that could happen is we break even but of the Habs win we’ll profit over five units. Hopefully, most of you are in the same position. Play: Washington –2.82 (Risking 2.82 units to win 1).
Tom Freese
Indians at Angels
Prediction: Under
Cleveland starter Jake Westbrook is 19-9 UNDER his last 28 starts. The Indians are 19-7-2 UNDER their last 28 games overall. Cleveland is 11-3 UNDER after scoring after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Indians are 12-4-2 UNDER their last 12 games as underdogs and they are 8-3-2 UNDER vs. righty starters. The Angels are 13-4-1 UNDER their last 18 games vs. AL Central teams and they are 14-5-1 UNDER in game of a series. Los Angeles is 16-7 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Ervin Santana his last 4 home starts vs. the the Indians. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
LARRY NESS
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
he A's are 12-9 to open the 2010 season, 1 1/2-games up in the AL West over the Angels who have won that division each of the last three years (A's have finished 22, 24 1/2 and 18 games behind). Dallas Braden has been a HUGE part of the team's turnaround as the lefty, who turns 27 in August, is the team's ace. He's 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA after four starts, all of which are Oakland wins (he's plus-$507 vs the moneyline, the best record of any MLB starter). However, as the A's found out last night, the Rays are a pretty good team (Tampa won the first game of this series, 8-6). The Rays own MLB's best record at 15-5 and at plus-$972 vs the moneyline, are also MLB's biggest "money-makers." Tampa has outscored opponents on average, 6.05-to-3.45 RPG. Opposing Braden will be James Shields, who is now Tampa's ace with Kazmir leaving late last season. Shields put together back-to-back seasons of 12-8 (3.85 ERA) and 14-8 (3.56 ERA) in 2007 and '08, before falling back to just 11-12 with a 4.19 ERA last year. He's opened 2010 at 2-0 with a 3.96 ERA, as the Rays have won THREE of his four starts. The Rays were just 9-9 in his home starts last season but note they were a super-impressive 24-10 in his home starts in '07 and '08. I expect Shields and the Rays to be "tough to beat" all season in Tropicana Field and I'm backing Shields in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on A's/Rays UNDER 8.5
I'm taking the Under in what should be a fantastic pitcher's duel between Dallas Braden and James Shields. Braden has been sizzlin' hot out of the gate. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.77 and a WHIP of 0.846. Shields has been rock solid, posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.480. In addition, Braden is 3-1 lifetime when starting against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 3.86, and Shields if 3-1 lifetime when starting against Oakland with an ERA of 3.88. The Under is 8-3 in Braden's last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. The Under is also 10-4 in the Athletics' last 14 games following a loss. We'll bet the Under tonight.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -153
Big mound mismatch here as the Red Sox roll behind Jon Lester. Lester's last 3 starts against the Blue Jays have all come on the road, where he has allowed just 5 earned runs in 21 innings of work while earning 2 victories. Brett Cecil has been blown up by the Red Sox, going 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA and a 2.444 WHIP in 2 starts against them last year. Cecil allowed 12 earned runs, 17 hits, 7 home runs and 5 walks in 9 innings.
Lester is 34-10 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997, and the Red Sox are winning these games by 2.1 RPG on average. Lester is 28-6 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by 2.5 RPG in these spots. He has been very dependable in this role and that's why we are not afraid to lay the big juice. Boston is also 12-2 against the money line off a one run win over a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Red Sox have posted back-to-back 1-run wins over the Blue Jays, but this game has the makings of a big blowout tonight. Roll with Boston.
Craig Trapp
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +8.5
The Bucks absolutely dominated the Hawks the last two games in MIL. Can they keep up the hot play I think so. Jennings is a matchup nightmare for MIL and he can get all his teammates open shots pretty much anytime he wants. The first game of this series MIL was blitzed but since then they have outplayed ATL. Take the Bucks tonight as would not be surprised if they even win this one outright.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Angels -163
The Angels are worth laying the juice tonight with their advantage on the rubber. Jake Westbrook is 0-2 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.754 WHIP this season. On the road, he is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA and 2.045 WHIP where the Indians are 0-3 in his road starts this year. Ervin Santana has pitched much better than his numbers would indicate. Though Santana is 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA, he offers just a 1.200 WHIP this season giving up 25 hits and 7 walks in 26.2 innings for very respectable numbers. And you have to factor in the opponents he has faced. Santana has played the Yankees twice, the Twins and the Blue Jays who are three teams that are having no trouble scoring runs this year. Westbrook has faced the White Sox twice, the A's and the Tigers. So his competition has been a lot weaker, yet he is still struggling mightily. Westbrook is 2-15 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. After a blowout loss to the Indians yesterday, we expect a bounce-back from Los Angeles Wednesday. Take the Angels on the Money Line.
Nelly
Toronto + over Boston
Brett Cecil was a very effective pitcher for the Blue Jays for most of last season and he beat the red hot Tampa Bay Rays in his first start of 2010. Cecil allowed four runs but struck out eight and displayed a lot of potential. Boston has won the first two meetings of this series but the margins have been very slim and this will be a key game for the Blue Jays to get back on track. These teams have identical records and nearly identical run production for the season but Boston is actually the team allowing more runs per game. Jon Lester was sharp in his last outing but it came against the lowly Orioles and he could not get out of the sixth innings. Lester has allowed 15 runs in four starts this season and walks have been a serious problem as he has not been able to make it deep into games. Both bullpens are struggling right now and Toronto looks like a good option at this great home underdog price.
Sac Lawson
TAM / OAK Under 8.5
I know it's always scary betting on an UNDER with Tampa playing at home.. Fact is though, Braden has been money for the A's, and I love that bullpen enough to be able to bank on them shutting down this Rays lineup, at least for today.
Braden, as I said, has been great so far this year for the A's. And the reason i like the guy so much is because he's like me, he gets fired up out there! I respect the hell out of people that are willing to act on impulse and show their true character, and we saw that from the Braden in his little cuss-out session of A-Rod last week. Fact is, Braden has been solid against Tampa throughout his short career thus far, he's 3-1 in five starts with a 3.47 ERA. On top of that he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA playing at The Trop. That's solid stuff.
On the other side, Shields is having a solid year thus far as well. Along side of that, just like Braden, Shields has had solid career success against today's opponent. He's 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 7 career starts against the Athletics. And another thing that stands out is the fact that he's got a 3.30 ERA lifetime in his home ball park (tropicana). That's rock solid.
Both our starters are pitching well, they both have had good success against these lineups, and I expect both of those trends to continue. I've got tons of love for the Oakland bullpen, and if Braden can go 6 or 7 strong, I'm confident the pen can lock it down. I'm not nearly as confident with the Rays pen, but quite frankly, I'll take my chances with them against a mediocre A's lineup playing on the road. 1 unit Premium Play on the UNDER.
Dan Bebe
OAK (+148) vs TAM
We talked about VALUE in the other baseball write-up, so this one needs no special qualifiers. The A's are absolutely a live dog today behind one of their strongest starters and against an overrated Tampa starting pitcher.
For the A's, we're backing a Dallas Braden that has pinpoint control and has shown the ability to go deep in ballgames, as well. Braden has gone at least 6 innings in all 4 of his starts so far this season, going 7 twice, and walking just 4 batters ALL YEAR! He doesn't create his own jams, and evidenced by the fact that all 4 starts have been of the "quality" variety, other teams aren't really creating jams, either.
Braden has also had some mild success against the Rays last year, as well, going 5.2 innings and allowing just a single earned run. He actually walked 3 in that start, so the ceiling is, believe it or not, even higher in this one. I expect another 6 strong from Braden, giving up, most likely, 2 runs.
Oakland has been scoring runs better than most people expected, as well, posting 6 in a losing effort last night in Tampa, and actually scoring in double digits twice in their last 4 games. I think most folks think of the A's as a team that can't plate anybody, but they're getting the job done, and I love that they're still flying under the radar, at least a bit.
On Tampa's side, James Shields is a very good pitcher with tremendous stamina, but he's also a guy that gives up some hits. His WHIP is nearly 1.5, and if you continue to put guys on base, eventually you're going to give up some runs.
The only downside to this play, the way I see it, is that Shields has the ability to go 7+ innings even when he's struggling just because of that rubber arm, and I'd love to see a little more of the Tampa pen, which has been nothing short of a disappointment so far this year.
Still, I believe this game will be decided late, and I'll always err to the big dog with a decent pen when I think a game is going to be low-scoring and decided late. That's just the case, here. Look for Oakland and Tampa to trade weak jabs for the first 6 or 7 innings, and look for Oakland to come through with a run or two late for a squeaker of a win.
No one said taking big dogs would be easy, but value is value.
Play Oakland.
DET (-110) vs MIN
This is absolutely tremendous value on the Detroit Tigers, and we're going to make a concerted effort to really get on HIGH VALUE baseball plays!
Detroit is coming off getting shut out by the renewed Francisco Liriano, and everyone remembers how well the Twins tend to play against Detroit, and those facts are keeping this line extremely cheap.
I also really like the fact that Scott Baker has pitched relatively well so far this year, and his team has been winning. That, too, is keeping this line affordable.
The problem for the Twins, and Baker, is that Detroit has actually hit Scott pretty hard in the past. Miguel Cabrera is batting .333 over 21 AB against Baker with a pair of homers, Magglio Ordonez is batting near .500 in over 40 AB, with 2 homers of his own! In addition, some of the guys with less pop like Johnny Damon and Ramon Santiago have nice numbers against Baker, as well. Detroit isn't going to get shut out, again, and a few runs could definitely be the difference.
Max Scherzer, for the Tigers, has been doing a stellar job of keeping his stuff around home plate, and really, he gets himself into his own jams. He's very tough to hit, but has been wild and had tried too hard to strike out the world in his brief career. But his strong start to 2010 has his confidence swelling, and Scherzer (who, interestingly, has two different colored eyes - one brown and one blue - and driving him to the ballpark from the Airport when he pitched in the Minors I got a chance to see the eyes up close, and they're crazy) hasn't really faced the Twins before, so he does have an edge in this game.
We aren't going to have many more opportunities to get Scherzer, at home, in a Pick situation, but the angles lined up just right, so we're going to ride the Tigers to a victory here in game two of their series with the rival Twinkies.
Play on Detroit.
John Ryan
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
3* graded play on Texas as they host the CWS set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 49-12 ATS for 80.3% winners since 2004. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games and with a cold starting pitcher posting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. Texas is 11-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in home games versus excellent speed teams averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. CWS are in a poor role noting they are 2-11 (-11.6 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak posting 15 straight games with one or less errors over the last 2 seasons. Take Texas.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Tigers -108
Reasons the Tigers win:
1.) Detroit got shut out by Francisco Liriano and the Twins yesterday. They will come into this game hungry to get their bats going, and they should have a great opportunity to do so against Scott Baker. Baker has been dealt a very easy schedule to this point with games against teams that are not getting much run production in the early going with the Angels, White Sox, Royals and Indians. He has come away with a 4.81 ERA in 4 starts against these teams. Max Scherzer is proving to be a great addition to this Tigers' staff, posting a 2.62 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in 4 starts this year.
2.) Detroit is 18-4 against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are also a superb 11-1 against the money line in home games off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Finally, the Tigers are 34-17 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. These three trends just show how well the Tigers bounce back from losses, and this is really the case when they are coming off a bad offensive performance as you can see. Bet Detroit at home.