Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 3

DUNKEL INDEX

Boston at NY Yankees
The Red Sox look to build on their 8-2 record in Clay Buchholz' last 10 starts in Game 2 of a series. Boston is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105)

Game 901-902: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Slowey) 14.066; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.935
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-270); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-270); Under

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 14.137; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 13.989
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); Over

Game 905-906: San Diego at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 14.842; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.607
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.809; Atlanta (Maholm) 15.982
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 14.515; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.417
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over

Game 911-912: St. Louis at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 15.634; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.006
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 17.490; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 17.981
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 915-916: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 14.492; White Sox (Peavy) 15.910
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Texas at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 14.849; Houston (Humber) 14.989
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+160); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 14.776; Minnesota (Correia) 14.904
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 14.960; Toronto (Morrow) 14.875
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+155); Under

Game 923-924: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.875; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.264
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.539; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.437
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 15.259; Oakland (Milone) 16.978
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-145); Under

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.924; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.014
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Santa Clara at George Mason FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: George MasonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We came up a half-point short when we backed George Mason in the first game of this potential three-game Championship Series, as they fell by eight points at Santa Clara as a 7.5-point underdog. A closer look at the final stats of that game reveals George Mason still played pretty well, as they finished the game with a +8 rebounding edge, including +4 in offensive rebounds, and if not for turnovers (19) and some better luck with Santa Clara's shooting (41% from beyond the arc and 25-30 at the free throw line) they might have even won that game outright. We'll take George Mason once again here, this time on their home court, and we expect a slower-paced, defensive game this time around. George Mason only allows 41% shooting on the season and with the home court edge they should be able to dictate the game pace. If they can, then Santa Clara is in trouble since their road defense isn't all that great - allowing 72 ppg away from home on the season - five points more than their overall season average. Santa Clara knows they don't "have" to win this game after taking Game One of this series, and we look for the series to be tied up after tonight!
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Washington Wizards at Toronto RaptorsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Toronto RaptorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We backed Washington as a premium selection against these Raptors on Sunday, with the Wizards coming through for us via a 109-92 blowout win and cover. But here in a quick revenge spot, we're going to back the Raptors. We're always a big fan of playing on teams in these quick revenge situations, and while Washington has been very good over the last few weeks on their home court, they are not the same team away from home - especially offensively. Washington will also be at a disadvantage tonight playing without rest after a hard-fought, close win (and ATS cover) against Chicago last night. Toronto has lost seven of their last eight overall, however they are a profitable 33-17 ATS when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, and despite Washington's recent home winning streak they are still just 7-29 straight up away from home this season. Toronto exacts some revenge from this past weekend's blowout loss with a big win against a fatigued Wizards squad tonight!

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Nuggets vs. Utah JazzFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Utah JazzFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We won with Denver in its last game which was a 22-point win over Brooklyn last Friday. That game snapped a two-game losing streak and improved the Nuggets to 33-3 at home this season but they have not had nearly as much success on the road, going just 17-21 on the highway. Being off for four days may have helped in getting some much needed rest but it certainly killed the momentum from that home win over the Nets. With the Lakers victory last night, the Jazz fell back into a tie for eighth place in the Western Conference standings so every game is huge at this point. Utah could be peaking at the right time though as it is riding a five-game winning streak which came on the heels of a four-game losing streak. Utah still owns one of the better home courts in the NBA as it is 28-9 while going 23-13-1 against the number. The home team has won all three meetings this season so Utah will be out to avoid the season series loss but more importantly, get that half-game back from the Lakers. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Additionally, we play against underdogs that are outrebounding opponents by tree or more per game, after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans vs. Golden StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a totals system that has won 11 of 12 times and plays to the under for any road dog, The Hornets in this situation, that scored 110 or more as a home favorite, while shooting 50% or better from the field, vs an opponent off a home game that scored 120 or more, like the Warriors did last out. These two hooked up 2 weeks ago and managed just 165 points. The Hornets take to the the road off a long home trip and have played under in 7 of 10 with 2 days rest. The Warriors have seen 5 of their last 7 go under the total. Look for these two to stay under the total tonight.

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New York Knicks at Atlanta HawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A tough situational spot for New York, the second of a back to back road spot after battling rival Miami last night. This is the 9th road game over the last 14 games for the Knicks. They face an Atlanta team that is fighting for playoff positioning, battling the Celtics, Nets and Bulls for the No. 4-7 spots. The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. This is the 3rd straight home game for the Hawks. The Hawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on one days rest. Play Atlanta.

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St. Louis at ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The first two games between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks have been Unders, and I can see more of the same tonight. Lance Lynn throws for the Redbirds. Lynn was a revelation early last season, and while he leveled off some as the campaign progressed, I think that might have been more a result of workload piling up more than anything else. Lynn is vulnerable to lefty hitters, so there's some concern here, but I don't see him getting smashed and with the arms in the pen, I only need a decent six from Lynn tonight. Brandon McCarthy is an intriguing add for the Diamondbacks. He is not an ace, never has been, never will be. But McCarthy can be a plus #3 starter if he stays healthy and I can also see the big righty being tough on lots of guys who have not faced him previously, as is largely the case tonight. Neither team has come out bombing, with most of Arizona's offense coming against Wainwright after he got hit in the shoulder with a line drive, and the Cardinals blew up against hapless Heath Bell for much of their Tuesday output. With the number at Chase on the high side as always, all that should be needed here is a pair of adequate starts and I think that's a reasonable expectation with Lynn and McCarthy, so I'm going Under with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles ClippersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Phoenix SunsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

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Edmonton vs. CalgaryFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year: Calgary won 4-3 at home, before the Oilers won 4-1 in Edmonton two nights ago. It's the grudge match in the "Battle for Alberta", and I believe the gloves come off, and the red light comes on between these divisional foes. Edmonton is 15-13-7 overall, and just 7-8-3 on the road. The Oilers have won four straight though, and have not played since the win over the Flames on Monday (note that Edmonton has outscored its competition 17-5 during its win streak). Calgary is 13-17-4 overall, and 10-6-2 at home. The Flames have lost two straight, and things certainly don't get any easier with a back-to-back set in San Jose and Vancouver respectively on Friday/Saturday, before finishing the three game trip in Colorado on Monday (note that Calgary has seen the total go "over" the number in 12 of 18 this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, and in six of ten after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous contest). For the most part, my "totals plays" are based on situations, and in this case, I definitely the feel the table is set for a higher-scoring affair. Consider a second look at the over in this one.

Strike Point Sports

Cincinnati (-115) over LA Angels

Mat Latos will be making his season debut for the Reds after going 14-4 with a 3.48 ERA in his first season with the club last year. He was especially tough at home where his ERA was nearly a half run lower than on the road. Cincinnati will be all revved up for this game after having to wait a day to get revenge after suffering a 3-1 loss in 13 innings to the Angels on opening day. You know that late inning loss really had to burn the home team, especially with all of the expectations that Cincinnati has going into this year. CJ Wilson will have the ball for the Halo's and has never started a game against the Reds. Cincinnati was 50-31 at home last year and I like them to get their first win of the 2013 season today.

Vegas Sports Informer

San Francisco / Los Angeles Under 7

What a pitching matchup this game will have! The Giants will throw out Tim Lincecum and the Dodgers will throw out Josh Beckett. Both pitchers are looking for rebound years, as both were horrible last year. I see fresh starts for both and I see a very well-pitched game. I just don't see more then five runs scored Wednesday night in Dodgers Stadium. Yes, I know Lincecum had an ERA of over 5.00 last year and Beckett's ERA was clearly over 4.00 but I see changes in both pitchers and I see the hitters struggle Wednesday night. I'm not saying that both pitchers are going to be pitching like their past but both will be keeping the ball down all night. Without the results from Tuesday's game this series is always pitching battles and the 'Under' is always the best bet. Nine of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone under the total and I see the same outcome Wednesday night.

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for tonight is going to be the Under in the Santa Clara/George Mason game, as I see the two falling well below the 148-point number the oddsmakers have put up tonight.

See, in this quirky, an useless postseason tournament that makes a ton of rejects feel good about themselves, you end up with a best-of-three championship series, and this year the quirkiness has two teams from Northern California and Northern Virginia passifying their sub-par seasons.

The most important game in this series every year is Game 1. And the fact Santa Clara won and covered the other night, means George Mason played its ass of and fell short. I say played its ass off because why would the Patriots want to go back to Santa Clara, honestly. You've made it this far good job, and see ya next season. That's not to say it can't pull off the win, I just don't know if it gets the same effort as it did in Game 1.

The Broncos can play tighter D in this game, now that there's familiarity after a Game 1, and try to head home with the trophy. It really is just a mind game at this point, with this series.

So while I know Santa Clara has gone over in its last four games, I think cause this one is on the road, and the Patriots' only salvation of hope is to slow this tempo down, you have to play the Under.

3* UNDER Santa Clara/George Mason

BRAD WILTON

Your Wednesday comp play is the 76ers as the road favorite over the Bobcats.

Philadelphia is finally playing their best basketball of the season, as the Sixers hit Charlotte riding a 3 game winning streak, and have won 6 of their last 9 overall straight up.

Their last game was an 8 point win over the same Bobcats they will be facing tonight. This is not the back end of a home-and-home, as Charlotte was on court Monday in a 29 point loss at Milwaukee.

The Bobcats come back home having lost 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6. Charlotte has not fared well in recent meetings versus Philly, as the 76ers are on a 6 game series winning streak, and have claimed 8 of the last 9 overall versus the 'Cats.

Philly has also covered 3 of the past 4 series showdowns.

Have to look for Doug Collins' team to continue to play strong ball in the closing days of the regular season.

Take Philly as the road favorite.

3* PHILADELPHIA

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for today is on the Kansas City Royals, as I like the value I'm getting with Ervin Santana making his debut for on the bump, against the Chicago White Sox and Jake Peavy.

Santana will be stepping to the hill for the first-time ever as a pro, outside an Angels uniform, and this isn't necessarily the worst team he could do so against, as he's faced the South Siders on 15 occasions and comes in sporting a 5-4 mark and 3.94 ERA in those games.

Though Santana can be erratic at times, and Lord knows his mechanics are always shaky, the fiery right-hander has a live arm and can deal. He's the type of pitcher who tends to be either really good, or very bad. My gamble today is he will be really good and can outduel Peavy.

The White Sox right-hander comes in after an off-season, probably because of a lack of run support, but he also doesn't do well against the Royals. The veteran northpaw has 4-7 mark and 4.85 ERA against the A.L. Central rivals, and with many talking about the Royals doing some surprise things this year, I like them out of the box after the teams' season opener resulted in such a low-scoring game.

The White Sox won 1-0 on Monday. Today I expect the Royals to return the favor.

3* KANSAS CITY

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New York Mets -137FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The most selective capper on the network! It was a small sample size but major leaguers had a tough time hitting Matt Harvey last year. You can argue that their are only a handful of MLB quality bats in the San Diego lineup so I expect the Padres will be held to just a couple of runs or less. Meanwhile they throw Clayton Richard at a Mets lineup that got off to a solid start in their opener. The Mets as a small favourite are a nice value play at home, on what should be a crispy day in New York. Do you really want to bet on SD for an upset this early in the season and on the road.