Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday April, 4

Marc Lawrence

San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

When the Spurs take on the Celtics at the Garden in Boston Wednesday evening San Antonio will take the court knowing they are 14-3 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 17 visits to Beantown, including 8-1 ATS when the Celtics are off a win. With Boston in off a 19-point romp over Miami in its last game (1-4 SU and ATS after the Heat), and looking dead ahead to a same season revenge with the Bulls tomorrow night, look for history to rear its head once again here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Antonio.

Hollywood Sports

New Jersey Nets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: New Jersey Nets

The Nets (19-36) come off a 91-87 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Tuesday as an 8.5-point underdog and this team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played without a day of rest. New Jersey has now covered the spread in 4 straight games all as an underdog. And the Nets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 5-10.5 point range. Portland (25-29) looks to rebound from their 102-97 loss to Utah on Monday but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Trail Blazers have not exercised much of a home court advantage as of late since they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, Portland has failed to cover the spread in 4 of these games. Look for these complementary team trends to play themselves out in this one. Take the points with New Jersey.

Sam Martin

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

We can't remember the last time the Lakers weren't the best NBA team that called the Staples Center their home, but it sure looks that way now with the Clippers surging. The Lakers have had their fair share of issues with the better offensive teams in the league, and here they face a Clippers squad that has not only won six straight, but shot 50% or better from the floor in five of those wins. Clippers take this one and make their case to rule the city of Los Angeles!

Vegas Experts

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins

This line is a bit pricey but worth the risk behind starting pitcher Josh Johnson. As if playing the defending World Champions wasn't enough of a reason to get up for this game, Miami will also be opening their new stadium as well. Johnson led the NL in ERA in 2010, and while only going nine starts last year he also dominated with a 1.64 ERA. STL has to deal with the loss of Pujols and La Russa, and there's too much going on tonight to beat one of the top pitchers in the game. Lay the price.

Rob Vinciletti

Bobcats vs. Hawks
Play: Over 186

This game fits a totals system that has cashed 12 of the past 14 times and plays to the over for teams like Atlanta that are off 3 or more days rest with a total of 180 or more and scored 90 or less on the road with 25 or less assists, vs an opponent like Charlotte that played on the road in their last game. The Hawks have flown over the total in 4 of their last 5 games and 10 of 13 vs opponents who average 92 or less points per game. The Bobcats have gone over in 3 of their past 4 road games and 4 of 5 on the road overall when the total is 185 to 190. Look for this one to soar over the total tonight.

Eric Williams

Cavaliers vs. Bucks
Play: Over 206

I like the Over to play out for NBA bettors when the desperate Milwaukee Bucks take on the abysmal Cleveland Cavaliers in what looks like another blowout waiting to happen. The Bucks pounded Cleveland 121-84 at home no less, back on March 30 and will look to do the same in this contest. However, it is the Over that is the strong play after going a robust 5-0 in Milwaukee’s L/5 games as a favorite of 11 points or more while also going 6-1 in their last seven games against a team with a losing SU record. Last but not least, the Over has gone a consistent, 5-1 in the last half-dozen meetings between these longtime division rivals.

Dave Cokin

Los Angeles Lakers vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

Bad times for the Lakers. They barely managed to hang on last night against the lowly Nets. Second of back to backs have been rough for the Lakers. The Clippers are red hot and this is their biggest game of the season. I'm on the Clippers to get the win and the money.

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

Phoenix has cooled off after a nice run to get back in the playoff race, riding a recent 3-4 run. And this is a tough situational handicapping spot, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights as well as the second of a back to back road spot. This is the middle of a 3-game road trip and they face a hungry and rested Utah team that comes off a win at Portland a a dog, 102-97. Utah is on the playoff bubble, trailing Houston, and the Jazz is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Play the Utah Jazz!

David Banks

Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

Second place in the Southwest Division will be up for grabs on Wednesday night when the Memphis Grizzlies (29-22, 24-27 ATS) invade Big D to battle the defending champion Dallas Mavericks for only the second time this season; tip-off from the American Airlines Center is set to go at 8:30 ET.

Since dropping four of their five games played from March 16-24, the Grizz have tallied wins in four of their L/5 and return home off a successful three-game road trip that saw them take two of three capped off with an impressive win at Oklahoma City. The win over the Thunder marked only the fifth time to date they were upended on their own floor. Six players registered scoring in double-digits led by O.J. Mayos 22 points off the bench. The win moved Memphis to 6-11 SU against the Sagarin Ratings Top 10 teams, and in the process, gave them a half-game cushion over the Mavericks for second place in the division. Head Coach Lionel Hollins troops returns home to play the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday before closing out their three-games in three-day stretch at Dallas. Memphis checks in a rock solid 10-3 SU & ATS when playing on no rest and has gone 12-15 SU & ATS away from the FedEx Forum on the year.

The Mavericks have alternated wins and covers each of the L/4 times theyve taken to the hardwood. Their last time out, Dirk Nowitzki and his mates were rolled up and smoked by the recently resurgent Los Angeles Clippers falling 94-75 on their own court as 4.5-point favorites. Nowitzki and Jason Terry were the only two players to tally double-digits in the defeat, as the Mavs shot 39 percent from the field, turned the ball over 12 times, and were outrebounded 49-38. The loss dropped the defending champs to a putrid 5-14 SU versus the Sagarin Ratings Top 10 teams, and theyll head into this one having lost each of their L/4 under that scenario (Clippers, Heat, Spurs, Lakers). Dallas will have had one full day off to prepare for this clash, and theyve been nothing but average under those parameters this season having gone 14-14 SU & 13-15 ATS when decently rested. Theyll attempt to bounce back in front of the hometown faithful where theyve gone 19-9 SU but just 14-14 versus the closing number on the year.

Memphis has had the Mavericks number of late winning each of the L/3 meetings both SU & ATS which includes the division rivals first meeting of the season; a game won by the Grizz 96-85 as 2.5-point home chalk back on February 29th. The under has cashed in 14 of these teams L/20 overall confrontations, and its 8-3 the L/11 times they collided in Dallas. The Grizzlies check in 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times they were lined 8 or less point underdogs, and theyve dominated their L/28 divisional opponents going 20-7-1 ATS. As for Dallas, its 2-3 SU & ATS the L/8 times it was installed chalk of eight points or less, and its only managed to cover the closing number in three of its L/10 home tussles.

MATT RIVERS

As for your Wednesday night free play, I will take the points and go with the best team in the league, the Oklahoma City Thunder as they visit the Miami Heat.

You get the feeling Oklahoma City's loss to Memphis the other night at home was the direct result of the Thunder looking ahead to this marquee meeting in South Beach tonight? I sure do!

Oklahoma City just spanked Miami ten days ago at home, cruising to a 103-87 blowout win over Miami. In fact, the Thunder has won and covered four of the last five in this series, and that includes their last pair of visits to Miami.

The Heat played last night without the services of Dwyane Wade, and he is listed as a question mark for tonight's action. Regardless of Wade's status, Miami is just 3-5 against the spread their last eight games.

Oklahoma City's overall lead in the West is down to just two games, so look for an inspired effort from the visitors tonight. Take the points.

2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

SCOTT DELANEY

Tonight I'm finally siding with a home team, as I like the heavily favored Milwaukee Bucks, laying -11, to smash the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers.

Milwaukee, which has won six straight over the Cavaliers, has won three of its last four games, and has had a night off since Monday's 14-point win in Washington. The Bucks trail the New York Knicks by 1-1/2 games for the Eastern Conference's final playoff berth, and have a date with the Knicks for the teams' final meeting of the season on April 11.

But first things first, the Bucks are hoping to complete the season sweep of the lowly Cavaliers.

As part of their six-game run in this Central Division rivalry, the Bucks have won the first three meetings this season, including last Friday's 37-point blowout in Cleveland. The average margin of win this season for Milwaukee, against the Cavs, is 16 points.

Losing badly at home seems to be customary, as the Cavaliers arrive in Milwaukee after last night's 35-point shellacking at home, at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs. It marked Cleveland's eighth-straight loss. And now it's strapped with having to hit the road to face a rival that is looking to surge in the East and nab a playoff spot, something that isn't necessarily an option for the Cavaliers any longer.

One thing I noticed last night, is Cleveland point guard Kyrie Irving is vividly still bothered by a shoulder injury he suffered in last Friday's blowout loss to these Bucks. Though he did start, he was just 5-of-15 from the field and 2-for-7 from beyond the arc. To have to get back on the court on the second of back-to-back nights, I don't know how effective he'll be for an already banged-up team.

Cleveland is in on ATS skids of 1-6 against losing teams, 0-7 after losing straight-up, 0-6 after losing to the books, 0-5 against Eastern Conference teams and also in intraconference play and 0-7 overall. On the other hand, the Bucks are in on ATS win streaks of 10-1 against losing teams, 7-2 after a day of rest, 10-3 against Eastern Conference foes, 8-3 when laying points and 12-4 overall.

The Bucks, who averaged more than 116 points in posting that 3-0 record against Cleveland this season, have covered seven of the last 10 meetings.

Lay the points with Milwaukee.

3♦ MILWAUKEE

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the Phoenix Suns to dominate the Utah Jazz one more time.

The last six times these Western Conference rivals have met, the Suns have been the outright winner each time. Against the spread it is not much different, as Phoenix has covered in five of the six victories.

That makes it hard to consider in investing in the Jazz tonight, especially with role players Raja Bell and Josh Howard now out for the remainder of the season with injuries. Utah is also on a 2-4 slide both straight up and against the spread as they take to the court just out of the mix for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

Phoenix is also just off the trail, but they can make up a full game on Utah (the team directly in front of them) if they are able to come up with their seventh straight series win over the Jazz.

The Suns have won and covered four of six entering play tonight, and I like them to cover tonight plus the points in Salt Lake City.

4♦ PHOENIX

CHRIS JORDAN

On the bump, right-hander Kyle Lohse is going for the Redbirds, while righty Josh Johnson is up for the Marlins.

Lohse steps into the role of team-ace, as Chris Carpenter opens the season on the 15-day disabled list. Lohse led the rotation in wins and ERA in 2011. Now he'll hope to carry the rotation in the season-opener against a 15-year-old team with two World Series titles and splashy new paintjob.

Lohse is a guy who has smooth arm action from over the top, and highlights his arsenal with an 88-92-mph fastball with late sink. He also promotes a downer breaking ball, a quick slider and a changeup he's not afraid to throw on any count, or to any hitter. Originally thought to be maybe the No.4 or 5 starter for St. Louis, this might be a bit much to ask of him.

The one consolation Lohse can take into this, while looking for some run support, is the Cardinals are on a 16-5 run against teams out of the National League East, and have won 20 of the last 27 meetings on South Beach - including the last four of 2011, as the Redbirds outscored the Marlins by a combined final of 20-11. Lohse started the opener of that four-game set, but didn't get the win after lasting just three innings, allowing seven hits and three earned runs. Plus, keep in mind that included a lineup that had Albert Pujols, and dugout that had manager Tony LaRussa. Both are gone now, and it remains to be seen how the Cardinals will respond without them.

Meanwhile, Johnson is set to make his third-straight Opening Day start, and will be looking to show everyone he is fine after suffering a shoulder injury that limited him to nine starts in 2011.

When he is healthy, Johnson is a dominant No.1 in the rotation. He has excellent angle to the plate from over the top and uses three superior pitches in his repertoitre, including an overpowering 97-mph fastball. He has steadily gotten better, evidenced by an ERA that has dropped four straight seasons. Fact is, when he’s healthy he’s as good as any pitcher in the game, with a bulldog mentality that could guide this team and earn him Cy Young chatter by mid-season.

He lost his lone start against St. Louis last season, allowing five earned runs on eight hits and four walks over 7-1/3 innings, despite striking out seven.
So while Miami has lost nine of its last 13 against National League Central teams, and closed its 2011 campaign on a 17-35 slide, it's likely going to be looking for the win in this game.

Personally, I think we're going to see some tentativeness on the part of tonight's starters - Lohse is stepping into the ace's role, and Johnson in trying to not tweak that shoulder - and any mistakes are going to be taken advantage of by a pair of aggressive lineups.

I'll open the season by giving you a free play on the Over in this game, as I see a 7 posted at most books.

2♦ ST. LOUIS/MIAMI OVER

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +11½ over MILWAUKEE

We get a nicely inflated number here due to the Cavaliers getting blown out most nights but that’s not going to deter us. Cleveland lost a home game by 35 last night to the Spurs. The Cavaliers have lost their past six games by 35, 16, 37, 12, 18 and 18 again. That’s six straight with the smallest margin of defeat being 12. On March 30th, Milwaukee went into the Q and defeated the Cavs by 37. These are ridiculous losing numbers for a team that is not nearly that bad. Even the worst teams in history do not get hammered in this fashion on a nightly basis. The Bucks arrive home as one of the hottest teams in the Association. They’re on an impressive 11-5 run and they begin a five-game home stand with Charlotte coming in after this game. If there was ever a time for a breather and a sense of complacency, this is it. This is a classic case of selling high and buying low and we must partake. Play: Cleveland +11½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Toronto +8½ over PHILADELPHIA

On May 21, 2010, Doug Collins was hired as head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers. The team showed improvement under Collins and clinched the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference that season. Collins' history is that he gets a big boost in year one, starts getting on everybody's nerves in year two and completely self-combusts in year three. The pattern could be developing yet again. The 76ers are lacking a bit of everything these days. Over their past 24 games, they’ve compiled a 9-15 record. You have few, if any, signature wins this season. Most games are a struggle and despite the Raptors’ record, they are not an easy out. Toronto has lost by this allotted margin just six times over its past 27 games and most of those occurred without the service of Andrea Bargnani. The Raps have won three of their past four with only loss over that span coming against the Heat in a game that was tied going to the fourth quarter. The 76ers are not playing well while the Raptors’ makeup has changed significantly. Current flows all favor Toronto. Possible upsetPlay: Toronto +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

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