Sean Murphy
Red Wings @ Blues
PICK: Over 5.5
We've seen some extremely high-scoring games already this week (the 'over' went 6-4 last night, with six games reaching at least seven goals) as the regular season winds into its final days.
That's not a big surprise, as some teams are going all out for playoff positioning, while others are making one last kick at the can in an effort to head into the offseason on a high note.
In this particular matchup, we have two teams that fall into the former category, as both the Blues and Red Wings can still move up the ladder in the Western Conference standings.
This has proven to be a low-scoring series so far this season, with all five meetings totaling five goals or less. I expect that to change tonight.
These two Western Conference rivals haven't met since January 23rd. Now we're approaching the end of a long regular season, and we're just not seeing the same emphasis placed on tough defensive play, and that certainly applies to both of these squads. The Red Wings have given up four goals in two of their last three contests. The Blues have allowed nine goals in their last two games.
Expect both teams to lay it all on the line tonight. St. Louis is just three points out of first place in the West, and while leap-frogging the Canucks with only three games remaining is tough, it's still well within reason, as the Blues do have a game in hand. The Red Wings are desperately trying to pass the Predators in order to seal home ice advantage in the first round.
Larry Ness
Miami Marlins -168
The Cardinals surprised all with last year's World Series win and open the 2012 season against a team which was arguably been the most-active one in this past off-season. The Florida Marlins are now the Miami Marlins (the reverse of the Angels' switch from Anaheim to LA), and will debut a brand-new baseball-only stadium in Marlins Park, They have a new (old) manager in Ozzie Guillen and while they fell short in wooing Pujols to South Florida, they did get Jose Reyes (defending NL batting champ) plus starters Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano, as well as All-Star closer Heath Bell. Speaking of Pujols, the Cards begin life after Albert in 2012, as well as life after Tony LaRussa, who has been replaced by Mike Matheny. Lance Berkman takes over at first base for St Louis after hitting .301 with HRs. The Cards get Adam Wainwright back after missing last season with Tommy John surgery but the Cardinals have shut down Chris Carpenter with a bulging disk in his neck. After playing 19 seasons at Sun Life Stadium and sharing that facility with the NFL's Miami Dolphins and the University of Miami, the Marlins have a new, $515 million home to call their own. The 37,000-seat park is one of the smallest stadiums in the majors but owner Jeffrey Loria is expecting to double the major league-low 1.53 million in attendance the Marlins had last year.The new ballpark has a retractable roof, two aquariums behind home plate and a 73-foot-tall kaleidoscopic sculpture beyond the center-field wall that will launch into animation when the home team hits a home run. Bottom line is this. The Marlins have to improve on that 72-90 record of 2011, which left them 30 games back of East champion Philadelphia. This is the franchise's 20th season and baseball fans should remember that the Marlins have won titles in 1997 and 2003. Guillen was a coach on the Marlins' 2003 World Series winner and now returns after eight seasons managing the Chicago White Sox (won World Series in 2005). The Cardinals won 23 of their final 32 regular-season games in 2011 to overtake Atlanta for the wild card with a 90-72 record. St. Louis then won three playoff series, including the World Series over Texas. St Louis was memorably down to its last strike two times in Game 6 of the World Series, before rallying for a 10-9, 11-inning victory and forcing a decisive seventh game, which the Cards won, Last year's NLCS and World Series MVP David Freese will need to help the Cardinals get over the loss of Pujols but he'll need help from Matt Holliday (the team's new No. 3 hitter), Berkman (last season's NL comeback player of the year) and more.The Cardinals open a stretch of 27 straight NL Central matchups Friday in Milwaukee in a rematch of last season's NLCS but start here in Miami against Josh Johnson.Johnson was limited to nine appearances last season due to right shoulder inflammation but will make his third consecutive Opening Day start for the Marlins. He needed Tommy John surgery in 2007 and returned in late 2008 to go 7-1 in 14 starts (team was 11-3). He then made 33 starts in 2009 (15-5 / 22-11), and in 2010, led the National League in ERA, going 11-6 (15-13 in starts), before last year's nine starts. He's 36-13 (.735) since returning in 2008 and the team is 54-30 in all of his starts in that span. More importantly for this game, the Marlins are 31-11 in his home starts since 2008. Kyle Lohse went 15-6 with St Louis in 2008, earning a big contract. He then flopped with a 6-10 (4.74 ERA) record in 2009 and a 4-8 (6.55) one in 2010. He was 14-8 last year, with a career-low ERA of 3.39 but lost twice with a 7.82 ERA in the postseason plus gave up eight runs on nine hits in 13 innings against the Marlins last season. When Lohse is your Opening Day starter, you just may be in for long season. Take the Marlins.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Florida Under 7: (Google News Play). Josh Johnson pitched in only 9 games games last year and with all the improvements this team had in the offseason, you can bet he will be pumped for this one. The right-hander made six strong starts in spring training, striking out 24 in 22 1/3 innings while hitting 96 mph with his fastball. He was hit a bit in spring and will be facing a potent St Louis lineup, but it will take some time for that lineup to gel, especially without Pujols being in there. Kyle Lohse has not had a good time when facing the Marlins, as he has a 5.85 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 6 career starts vs them, but he is coming off of one of his better years in the majors with a team-best 3.39 ERA among starters and a 14-8 record in 30 starts, plus he had a very nice spring with a 3-1 mark and a 3.50 ERA in 25.67 innings of work. Kyle also had 17 K's in his last 20.67 innings of work in the preseason. Lohse has not had a good career vs the Fish, but this is opening day abnd coming off the spring he had he will be ready for this one as well. The Marlins do have a solid lineup as well and will they will be pumped for their debut in their new stadium I feel that being that up can have adverse effects on hitters. They will try too hard in this one. Both pitchers are capable of taming these lineups and that has me looking for a game of around 5 runs at most.
Teddy Covers
New Jersey @ Portland
PICK: New Jersey +8
The Blazers have no business in this pointspread range, even against a losing team like New Jersey on the second night of back-2-backs. Portland has been slumping since the All Star Break; just 7-13 SU in their last 20 games. Whatever small chance they had of putting together a late season run to make the playoffs ended on Monday, when point guard Ray Felton had back-2-back turnovers in the final minute of a one point game, turning a late lead into a five point defeat. The Blazers have already fired their coach and traded away their two best defensive veterans (Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby). Third leading scorer (and best clutch shooter) Jamal Crawford sat on Monday with a balky knee, no sure thing to play (or play effectively) tonight. And it’s surely worth noting that three of the last four Blazers SU wins have come by six points or less – this team simply isn’t capable of winning games by big margins these days.
Meanwhile, quietly, waaaaay under the radar, the Nets are playing very good basketball right now. New Jersey has won four of their last six in SU fashion, with the last three all coming as outright underdog wins. They’ve shown some ‘refuse-to-lose’ during this stretch, rallying from 19 down in the second half to beat Golden State, and from 17 down in the second half to tie the Lakers last night, before falling four points short (an ATS win) in the closing seconds. They’ve shown the ability to play defense against playoff teams, holding the Pacers to 84 points in a 22 point ATS win over Indiana and holding the Lakers to 91 points last night. With a solid core of Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries at the point, the wing and the low post; along with plenty of perimeter firepower from Anthony Morrow, MarShon Brooks and Sundiata Gaines, look for the Nets to hang around for a long, long time in this game…. Take New Jersey.
Jack Jones
Washington Wizards +6
The Washington Wizards are showing great value at home tonight against the tired Indiana Pacers. I just don't believe Indiana will be able to put forth the kind of effort it will take to blow out the Wizards on the road in this one.
Indiana will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 4th game in 5 days, and their 6th game in 8 days. They used a lot of energy last night in coming back from 17 points down in the second half to beat the New York Knicks. The Pacers are likely to come out flat tonight.
Motivation is clearly on Washington's side tonight as they try to revenge two heartbreaking losses in their first two meetings of the season with the Pacers. Indiana won the first meeting 85-83 on March 22nd in Washington, then won again 93-89 at home seven days later on March 29th. Now, a week later, it's the Wizards turn for revenge.
The home team is a sensational 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Pacers are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet Washington Wednesday.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors +8.5
The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest. The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Also, playing against home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) playing on back-to-back days in the month of April has produced a 25-10 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 5-0 ATS record this season. Take Toronto.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Celtics +1
Boston has the advantage at home tonight as it has had two days' rest and the Spurs just played in Cleveland last night. The Celtics are an impressive 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games when playing on two days' rest.
Sunday's 19-point win over Miami was Boston's 8th straight at home. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 11.4 points.
The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.
Boston has won the last two meetings in this series, four of the last five and seven of the last nine. The Spurs are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. We'll bet Boston.
Rocketman
San Antonio @ Boston
Play: San Antonio -1
San Antonio comes in with a 37-14 overall record on the season while Boston is now 30-22 this year. San Antonio is 24-5 SU and 21-7 ATS this year in the second half of the season. San Antonio is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS this year against the Atlantic Division. Boston is 25-50 ATS last 3 years after a win by 10 points or more. San Antonio is scoring 101.9 points per game overall this year and 100.2 points per game on the road this season. San Antonio is 5-0 their past five games where they are scoring 110.8 points per game and beating opponents by an average of 14.6 points per game. The Spurs are shooting 51.5% from the field their past five games. San Antonio is 11-3 SU and 10-3 ATS at Boston since 1996. These two teams haven't played in a little over a year and that game saw Boston win by 10 points in San Antonio. The Spurs return the favor here tonight and get a little revenge. We'll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!
Steve Janus
New Jersey Nets +8.5
The Portland Trail Blazers are not the same team that look liked a contender in the Western Conference. They are currently 4-games back of Houston for the 8th and final playoff spot, and are showing no signs of turning things around. The Trail Blazers are 7-13 over their last 20 games. Even when they beat the teams they are suppose to, they are barely squeaking by. Three of their last four wins have come by 4-points or less, against the likes of Memphis, Golden State, and New Orleans.
The Nets have absolutely no shot at making the playoffs, but have continued to come out and play with a lot of intensity. They had won three straight before falling to the Lakers 87-91 last night, a game in which they nearly rallied from 17 down for the win. New Jersey has now covered in five of their last 6 games, yet continue to get undervalued.
New Jersey is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Tony George
New Jersey Nets +8
Another ugly dog cover here as the past 3 days we have went with big digit underdogs in the NBA. I am not impressed with Portland as they have been inconsistent all year and even though playing better with a coaching change, I am not sold on them laying 8 points in this one. The Nets are a decent road team ATS standing at 16-12 ATS on the year, and considering they are getting hefty points here, and they should own the glass which equates to cheap points, I expect them to hang tough here. The Nets are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games winning 3 outright, all as a dog.
John Ryan
Raptors at 76ers
Prediction: Over
5* graded play ?OVER? Philadelphia - Toronto in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. The 76ers need this win period as they are now six games over .500 and trail Boston by one game in the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference. Currently, they are the seven seed and lead the fledgling New York Knicks by 2 1./2 games. So, they are safe to make the playoffs barring a collapse and must win the remaining games on their schedule that are against the weaker teams in the NBA.
Philadelphia has the best scoring defense in the NBA allowing 87.7 points per game on the season, but tonights game will be more about the 76ers offense and their fast break scoring attack. Toronto is offensively challenged ranking 26th in the NBA scoring an average of 91.8 points per game. The fact is that, that the missed Toronto shots will provide fast break scoring opportunities for the 786ers, who rank seventh in the NBA averaging 15.6 fast break points per game.
The simulator shows a high probability that more than 185 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 64-27 for 70% winners since 1996. Play over with road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points revenging a road loss to opponent of 10 points or more and is a weak team winning between 25% to 40% of their games on the season.
Moreover, Toronto is a perfect 8-0 ?OVER? in road games after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last three seasons. Take the OVER for a 5* Titan Play
Tony Stoffo
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards +5.5
Here we have another perfect set-up for a reverse money action play - as the public is all over the Pacers after seeing their explosive 4th quarter against the Knicks last night where they scored 40 points - with 78% of all straight bets placed, and 73% of all parlays and teasers - yet the odds makers are still looking for more Indiana money - as the sharps hit the Wizards hard this morning causing the lowering of the Pacers line from 6 to 5 1/2. And I can see why Washington is getting the smart action here as first in their last 2 games against the Pacers they could have easily won both - plus after their monster comeback last night, and then having to go straight to the airport - I definitely can see a tired Indiana squad taking the court here this evening - which makes the Wizards the very live home dog in this spot tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -3
The LA Clippers were supposed to be the new kids on the block with their off-season acquisition of Chris Paul. They had a bad stretch that left them a game and a half behind the Lakers. The bad stretch saw them go 7-12, but otherwise they are 25-9. It is what we have seen from that 25-9 team, and more, that has been on display recently as the Clippers have regrouped and are 6-0 in their last six games. The Lakers are turning every game into an adventure and, although they have done well in the win column, they are a dreadful 1-10 ATS in their last 11, including 0-7 ATS following a straight up win. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS vs. the Clippers in their last six and a win here for the Clippers evens these teams up in the loss column. Play on the LA Clippers.