Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 6,2011

Marc Lawrence

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

When the Mariners meet the Rangers in the finale of this three games series in Texas Wednesday afternoon Seattle will send Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez to the mound knowing he enjoyed a solid Spring Training camp where he issued three walks against 15 strikeouts. The King is also 4-0 in his last four teams starts in this series and has cashed in four of his last five starts in this park. With that look for Hernandez to improve to 14-2 in his last 16 team starts during the month of April here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

MTi Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Rockies are 9-0 at home after scoring 3 runs or less and winning and LAD007 from the 2011 MLB Handicapping Bible reads: The Dodgers are 0-14 (-3.6 rpg) since September 2009 in the last game of a road series vs a National League foe when they are off a loss in which they struck out at least five times. Consider the Rockies.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

The Knicks are scoring a lot of points now, having blown out both Cleveland and Toronto (averaged 127 PPG) and that makes them very dangerous as a road underdog, a role that has already seen them go 21-6 ATS for the year. Compare New York's recent scoring with that of Philadelphia, who only managed 82 points last night in Boston. They are just 15-32 ATS in games where the total is 210 or higher, including 5-16 ATS at home.

Play on: New York

teve Merril

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres +1.5

The Giants title defense hasn't been going very well so far this season. They'll turn to Tim Lincecum to halt a losing streak in San Diego against the Padres. Lincecum pitched well in his opener giving up one run and five hits in seven innings. The righty split in two games against the Padres last season after giving up seven runs and 15 hits in 10.2 innings pitched. He has lost two of his last three outings in San Diego since 2009. Orlando Hudson (7-16), Chase Headley (5-19) and Nick Hundley (4-13) have hit the Giants ace well. San Diego may not be scoring that much still, but their lineup is getting it done when it matters. Tim Stauffer made a nice start for the Padres in St. Louis on Opening Day. He gave up two runs and nine hits in six innings of work. The righty pitched two tremendous outings against the Giants last season giving up just one run and six hits in 12.1 innings of work. Stauffer lost to San Francisco 2-1 in 2009 after giving up both runs over seven innings of work. Stauffer has had success against Aubrey Huff (1-5), Andres Torres (0-6), Freddy Sanchez (0-3), Eli Whiteside (0-3), Nate Schierholtz (0-4) and Buster Posey (1-7). As a team, the Giants are slumping offensively and they will not benefit from a trip to San Diego where offenses just don’t get things going.

DAVID CHAN

Edmonton @ Calgary
PICK: Calgary -1½

I bet value where I see it, and after successfully playing the Oilers on the "puck line" last night, I believe that the Flames on the "puck line" tonight offer fantastic value for us here.

Calgary has no room for error with just two games remaining; it faces a must win scenario tonight and at home Saturday vs. the Canucks; the Flames are tied for ninth with Dallas in the West, two points behind seventh-placed Anaheim and eighth-placed Chicago:

“Right now we’re going to need the gods on our side to make the playoffs,” Calgary forward Alex Tanguay said. “We’re hanging onto our slim chances. If we go out and lose a game we’re out.”

“We’re within reach again,” Flames coach Brent Sutter said. “I know the games in hand are still there, but you can’t worry about that. We tightened the gap. We’re right there again, and let’s see what happens.”

Miikka Kiprusoff has a 2.77 goals against average during a five-game home win streak over Edmonton.

The Oilers have lost four straight in the series, and are just 3-18 [-13.2 units] this season when "revenging" a home loss vs. an opponent (note that Calgary is a perfect 13-0 [+13.3 units] when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season).

All signs point to a home blowout; consider a second look at the Calgary Flames on the "puck line" tonight!

Tom Stryker

L.A. Lakers @ Golden State
PICK: L.A. Lakers -7

The Lakers are still in the hunt for the top spot in the West. Off last night's shocker at the Staples Center against Utah, Los Angeles should do fine here. As a guest in the second of a back-to-back, LA is a powerful 41-17 SU and 35-22-1 ATS in its last 58 games.

Golden State has dropped 12 straight in this series and the Warriors are going to get LA's best shot too. Defensively, GS hasn't discovered a way to slow down the Lakers offense. In those 12 blemishes, the Warriors have allowed an average of 119.3 points per game. Amazingly, when the Lakers score 119 points or more, they own a phenomenal 128-34-1 ATS record.

On foreign soil catching an opponent in the second of a back-to-back, LA has been tough to beat notching a stellar 67-43 ATS mark including a stunning 40-19 ATS in this role priced as a favorite. Head coach Phil Jackson's troops will be too strong in the end. Take Los Angeles.

SEAN MURPHY

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have come close in each of the first two games of this series, dropping 6-4 and 3-2 decisions against the still-undefeated Rangers.

A closer look shows that Seattle has actually outhit Texas by a 16-12 margin in this series. That's despite the fact that the Rangers have held the edge on the mound in both contests.

That advantage will go to the Mariners on Wednesday, as they send reigning Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez to the mound. He was outstanding in his first start of 2011, tossing a complete game against the A's, allowing only five hits and two earned runs while striking out five in a 6-2 victory.

Save for a 7-1 shellacking last June, King Felix has pitched well in Arlington. The last time he pitched here he allowed just five hits and one earned run over eight innings last September. In fact, he's lasted exactly eight innings while allowing only two earned runs on eight hits in his last two starts against the Rangers.

C.J. Wilson gets the call for Texas. He wasn't all that sharp in his first start of the season, allowing six hits and four runs (two of them earned) over 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox. He had a tough time keeping his pitch count down, throwing 109 pitches despite not making it through the sixth inning.

Perhaps that rocky outing shouldn't come as a surprise. Wilson struggled during Spring Training, allowing 22 hits and nine earned runs over 16 innings of work.

The current Mariners roster is hitting .271 against Wilson, while he's winless in his last two outings against them.

The Rangers are off to a perfect 5-0 start, putting them in uncharted territory. Remember, they started 2-3 last year, with one of those losses coming against the Mariners with Felix Hernandez on the hill. Betting against streaks isn't something I like to make a habit of, but in this case, I'll make an exception. Take Seattle

Nick Parsons

Toronto Maple Leafs @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils

For a number of different reasons I believe that the Devils will hammer the Leafs tonight:

Both teams have been eliminated from Playoff contention.

New Jersey made a massive second half push, but failed to reach the post-season for the first time since 1996 after a 3-1 loss to Montreal on Saturday.

It also lost 4-2 last night to the Playoff bound Penguins; “We battled back,” goaltender Johan Hedberg said. “We came back to 3-2 and had a chance to tie it up with a power play at the end. It didn’t happen. With three games to go here; we’ve got to keep going and be a proud bunch of hockey players.”

New Jersey will be extra motivated here as well as Toronto has gone 7-1-3 in the last 11 meetings between the teams, including 2-0-1 this year.

The Leafs will also miss the post-season, but their hopes were dashed in a brutal 3-2 shootout loss to the Capitals just last night; with that massive disappointment on the front of its mind, I expect this team to roll over tonight.

Consider a second look at the New Jersey Devils in this contest.

BIG AL

Astros @ Reds
PICK: Over 8.5

Cincy righthanded starter Edinson Volquez picked up in his first start of the regular season right where he left off in the spring, and that's not a good thing. After getting rocked in his outings throughout most of March, Volquez got the call on opening day at home against the Brewers and proceeded to surrender five runs in just six innings of work. But if he's looking for a cure to the opening day blues, Volquez may need to look no further than getting a second chance against the lowly Houston Astros. The Reds are off to a scorching start at the plate as they are #1 in the Majors in batting average (around .350) and in the top three in runs scored. It could be a short night for Astros righthander Nelson Figueroa as he faces this powerful roster of Reds hitters. And if he exits early to turn things over to the Houston bullpen, then things may just get uglier for his team as the Astros relievers rank 13th in the National League with a 6.75 ERA. Heading into tonight's game, these two teams have played a total of seven games in the 2011 season with six of the seven going over the total. Take the 'over.'

Freddy Wills

Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8

Rangers scoring 3 runs on Tuesday, could that mean their offense is slowing down? Not sure but this is a risky play but once you hear why you will be confident and know why it’s a free bet too. I was very tempted to pull the string on King Felix and Seattle looking at some number, but a couple things caught my eye and one is he had two starts where he gave 5 and 7 ER vs. Texas. No team has seen him more in the last three years as he has 117.1 IP against them.. Still an ERA under 4, but when a team sees you more they are more likely to get to you. The Rangers will not need much on Wednesday either. Here is the stat that pushed me away from the Mariners despite their relatively decent success vs. CJ Wilson. They were just 14-36 a year ago vs. lefties and they were just the worst team in day games producing just 2.71 runs per game. Now they go up against a lefty and playing the day after a night game this spells trouble for them against CJ Wilson who was very good last year early in the season. Texas on the other hand should be limited to runs and I think 8 is a high total with these two aces on the mound. Felix is just a monster during day starts he had a 1.95 ERA in 10 day starts a year ago and in the last three years combined he has a 2.21 ERA and in April he has also been a monster with an 8-2 record and a 2.27 ERA over the last three years. Texas although has been hot was in the bottom half of the league in runs scored during day games as they put up 1 run per game less than at night with just 4.13. Now facing an ace like Felix and their offense looking like it may be cooling off we find it the perfect time to take this. If you are a sucker for trends here they are. Seattle under 19-6-3 in Felix’s last 28 road games, seems to really put an extra effort when he plays a good team. Seattle U33-15-3 with Felix on the mound last 53 as an under dog and he’s under 40-18-4 in his last 64 road starts. He’s not a pitcher that is worse on the road or vs. a division. This one has a low scoring game written all over it and we will capitalize with Vegas posting it high as the Rangers have averaged 7 runs a game.

Tom Freese

LA Lakers at Golden St
Play: LA Lakers

Golden St is 34-44 straight up this year. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games as underdogs. The Warriors and they are 0-4 ATS when playing with no rest. Golden St is 1-7 ATS their last their last 8 games following a straight win. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS their 4 games vs. NBA Pacific teams. The Lakers are 55-22 straight up this year. The Lakers are 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 road games vs. a team with winning home record. Kobe and company are 7-1 ATS their last 8 road games. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS their last 11 meetings at Golden St. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS when playing with no rest.

Rocketman

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Denver Nuggets +5

Denver is scoring 107.2 points per game overall this year. Denver has won 6 of their last 7 games overall. Denver is 5-1 ATS at Dallas the past 3 years. Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Nuggets are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Mavericks are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas. Nuggets are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!

Craig Trapp

Lakers vs. Warriors
Play: Under 203

Lakers and Warriors are two of best under teams in league. Lakers defense has been great holding teams to 86.4 in last 5 games. Head to head on the season the under is 2-1. Lakers have been playing thru the post last few games and it has really slowed the pace of their games down. Think with Lakers coming off back to back game we will see even slower paced game than usual. Under is free play

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -131

Look for the Phillies to bounce back strong from yesterday's loss behind big right-hander Joe Blanton. The big fella is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four home starts versus the Mets. The Phillies are 7-1 in Blanton's last 8 starts, 19-7 in his last 26 home starts and 25-8 in his last 33 starts as a home favorite. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the National League East.

Mike Pelfrey, who was rocked in his first outing this season, gets the ball for New York. He has endured all kinds of struggles on the road with visits to Philly being no exception. He is carrying an 8.17 ERA in his last five road games in this series. The Mets are 0-4 in Pelfrey's last 4 road starts, 0-8 in his last 8 starts as a road underdog and 1-8 in his last 9 starts vs. the National League East. Take the Phillies.