Bobby Conn
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8
Texas is off to a blazing start on offense, but last year's Cy Young Award winner, Felix Hernandez should be just what the doctor ordered to cool them off a bit. Hernandez went all 9 innings in his first start of the season, giving up just 5 hits and 2 runs. King Felix is just 10-12 lifetime against Texas, but he never gave up more than 3 runs against the Rangers in three starts against them last year with all three games staying under the total. Seattle is one of the worst offensive teams in the majors averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their first five contests. They will be matched up with Rangers' starter C.J. Wilson, a solid pitcher in his own right who gave up just 2 runs in 5 2/3 inning pitched his last time out.
Ray Monohan
Phoenix Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings
Play: Los Angeles Kings
The Coyotes won the first 3 meetings this season between the 2 division rivals before the Kings claimed the last 2. A 4-3 win Jan. 22 and a 1-0 home victory on March 3. I see another win tonight for the Kings on their home ice. Los Angeles will wrap up the regular season with three games against Pacific Division rivals. After facing the Coyotes on Wednesday, the Kings will have a home-and-home series with the Anaheim Ducks this weekend, and they can still improve their playoff position, plus the winner tonight is guaranteed a playoff berth. There is a lot to play for still. Phoenix wrapped up its six-game homestand with a 3-2-1 mark, and now play 2 of its final 3 games on the road. Trends I like for this one include, Coyotes are 0-4 in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The Kings are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite, are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite, are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and are 5-2 in their last 7 overall. The home team in this series is 37-18-6 in the last 61 meetings.
Larry Ness
Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
Florida’s 6-9 Chris Volstad went 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 14 starts (team was 8-6) as a rookie in 2008. His ERA ballooned to 5.21 in 2009, as he went 9-13 in 29 starts (team was 13-16). He cut his ERA to 4.58 last year and went 12-9 but the team was still just 14-16 in his 30 starts. However, he went 4-0 against Washington in 2010, despite a 5.28 ERA. The Marlins totaled 36 runs in his four winning starts and won 6-5 in a fifth start, in which he received a no decision. In his short career, Volstad is 5-1 with a 5.70 ERA vs the Nats in nine starts (team is 7-2). However, one would expect that he’ll need to pitch better to win here, as Florida has scored just 12 runs in the team’s 2-2 start plus will be without Mike Stanton (slight strain in his left hamstring). The Marlins escaped with a 3-2 win last night in 10 innings, despite finishing the game 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position. The Marlins have stranded 41 runners through four games, not a promising stat. However, let me note that Volstad ended last year by going 6-0 with a 3.75 ERA in his final eight starts (team was 7-1). He was not sharp in the spring though, going 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA. That being said, the Nationals are not a formidable opponent. The Nationals, like the Marlins, also failed in the clutch last night (1 for 8 with RISP) and through four games are batting .121 (4 for 33) in those situations while stranding 32 runners. Livan Hernandez gave up two ERs over 6.1 innings Thursday in a 2-0 home loss to Atlanta on Opening Day but the man is nearing 100 year old! He was rookie back in 1997, winning the NLCS and World Series MVP awards in leading the Marlins to the first of two World Series wins. He is 13-10 (3.48 ERA) all-time vs his former team with his new teams going 18-13. He’s been solid when in Miami with an opposing team (6-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 15 starts as a visitor) but Tuesday’s Florida win gives the Marlins SIX straight wins over the Nats, including 11 wins in the last 12 meetings between the two clubs. Volstad’s good fortune vs the Nats continues tonight. Take Florida.
David Chan
Edmonton @ Calgary
PICK: Calgary
I bet value where I see it, and after successfully playing the Oilers on the "puck line" last night, I believe that the Flames on the "puck line" tonight offer fantastic value for us here.
Calgary has no room for error with just two games remaining; it faces a must win scenario tonight and at home Saturday vs. the Canucks; the Flames are tied for ninth with Dallas in the West, two points behind seventh-placed Anaheim and eighth-placed Chicago:
“Right now we’re going to need the gods on our side to make the playoffs,” Calgary forward Alex Tanguay said. “We’re hanging onto our slim chances. If we go out and lose a game we’re out.”
“We’re within reach again,” Flames coach Brent Sutter said. “I know the games in hand are still there, but you can’t worry about that. We tightened the gap. We’re right there again, and let’s see what happens.”
Miikka Kiprusoff has a 2.77 goals against average during a five-game home win streak over Edmonton.
The Oilers have lost four straight in the series, and are just 3-18 [-13.2 units] this season when "revenging" a home loss vs. an opponent (note that Calgary is a perfect 13-0 [+13.3 units] when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season).
All signs point to a home blowout; consider a second look at the Calgary Flames on the "puck line" tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
These teams played both played last night with very different results. The Lakers lost outright as 14-point home favorites to a struggling Utah team while Golden State went to Portland and won outright as 10.5-point home favorites. That makes it BB losses for LA and BB wins for the Warriors. However, this should be a clear reversal of fortunes as Golden State has lost 11 straight times to their Pacific Division rivals and an incredible 48 of 58 times. The Warriors are 3-14 ATS off BB ATS wins this season. Take LA Lakers.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY –109 over Chicago
The White Sox have lost their last two and will face their first lefty of the year in K.C’s Jeff Francis. Francis is a guy that could really fly under the radar for a few starts and could be in line for a terrific year. Francis has missed parts of the last three seasons while struggling with a shoulder injury but there are many positives to consider. His 2010 ERA was bloated by some bad luck via hit %/strand % but his control and command were career-bests. Francis also had some very nice second half numbers and that sets up the possibility of a 2011 follow-up. His spring training audition for the rotation went well--with a 20 IP sampler, but 15 K and 3 BB. So did his first start of the year in which he faced the Red Sox and allowed just two runs in one out shy of six innings. Mark Buherle entered this season as a pitcher notorious for out-performing his skill-set on a seemingly annual basis. 2010 was shaky and his numbers should have been worse. His ERA/xERA gap continues to grow and this year you can expect that ERA to be much closer to 5 than 4. In his first start this year, Buherle was in trouble the entire game against the Indians. He ultimately surrendered eight hits and four runs in six full but was a base hit away on a few occasions from being yanked. His skills have now slipped to a level that is clearly subpar and he’s really an overvalued starter. Royals are a surprising 4-1 and can likely improve another notch when this one is completed. Play: Kansas City –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Washington +130 over FLORIDA
Livan Hernandez isn’t going to dominate anyone but the savvy veteran can usually keep his team close enough for them to win it. Case in point was his opening day assignment in which he lost but held the Braves to four hits in 6.1 frames and didn’t walk a batter. Besides, this one is more about playing against Chris Volstad as the chalk. Volstad really doesn’t offer up much. He’s the Marlins fifth starter and they’re hoping he eats up some innings. Last season he was demoted to the minors and this season he barely made the roster after a very shaky spring in which he allowed 16 runs in 18.1 IP. This is Volstad’s first start of the year and it doesn’t come without pressure. He has little room for error with at least three other pitchers, Adalberto Mendez, Shawn Hill and Sean West just biting at the bit for their chance at that fifth spot in the rotation. Volstad is just 23 but his numbers began to deteriorate last season and we’d be very cautious about laying juice with a guy as fragile as he is. Play: Washington +130 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
New York Mets + over Philadelphia Phillies
Despite drastically different projections for the Phillies and the Mets, the two teams are tied on top of the NL East standings at 3-1. These teams split the series at 9-9 last season including four New York wins in Philadelphia so this is a series that the Mets will be up for and New York was able to steal game one yesterday by hammering Cole Hamels en route to a 7-1 win. The Phillies were incredibly lucky to win their opening game and should be 2-2 at his point as the pitching has not lived up to the billing just yet. With Hamels yanked in the third inning yesterday the bullpen faced a lot of work and that has been an area of concern for Philadelphia so far this season. The New York bullpen has been very sharp and while Mike Pelfrey had a rocky 2010 debut he is capable of bouncing back. Pelfrey allowed just four hits in his first start but a few walks helped lead to five runs in the first five innings in an eventual 6-2 loss. Pelfrey was 15-9 last season with a 3.66 ERA and only 68 walks in 204 innings so he is likely to return to his normal levels in this match-up. Pelfrey had made three straight quality starts against the Phillies, allowing only five runs in over 21 innings and the New York bullpen has a 2.70 ERA so far this season. Joe Blanton is the key weak link in the rotation for the Phillies and his ERA has been north of 4.00 in three straight seasons. New York has scored 24 runs in four games this season as the offense is really on a roll despite facing strong pitching and playing three games in spacious Sun Life Stadium. With dog value the Mets are worth a look again tonight with an edge on the mound and an offense that looks capable of keeping pace.
Matt Fargo
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were going for their first 4-0 start in close to a century but instead they were hammered at home against the Mets which are now sitting at 3-1. It was a surprise as Cole Hamels was rocked for six runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings of work. He is the fourth pitcher in the rotation that is considered to be a possible Cy Young candidate so it is back to the drawing board for him. Philadelphia is not going to lose a tom of back-to-back games this season and this is a good bounceback situation. The Mets are off to a solid start which is surprising to most with all of the offseason distractions and changes taking place. They are 3-1 after their 7-1 victory on Tuesday and while the offense is struggling, the pitching has been the catalyst which was also the case a year ago. A mediocre offense will not keep New York in contention very long in the National League East. Tonight they will be facing the Phillies fifth starter but this is a different fifth starter than any other team brings to the mound. Mike Pelfrey is coming off a rough opener in Florida as he allowed five runs on four hits and four walks in 4.1 innings against the Marlins. After a hot start last season, he cooled off considerably and while injuries played a part, we could see more of the later to begin the season. He had three solid starts against the Phillies last season but all of those were at home. In his one start in Philadelphia, he was shelled for six runs in four innings which upped his ERA to 8.17 and WHIP to 1.97 in five career starts at Citizens Bank Park. Joe Blanton is the overshadowed pitcher in the rotation which makes him arguably the best fifth starter in all of baseball. Though he struggled at the onset of last season after missing the first 24 games with an oblique strain, Blanton went 6-0 with a 3.42 ERA in his final 14 appearances, all but one of those starts. He faced the Mets at home twice last season and allowed two runs in seven innings in both occasions and in three home starts with the Phillies against the Mets, Blanton is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA. 3* Philadelphia Phillies
Rob Vinciletti
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
The Lakers were caught napping last night in a bad home loss to the Utah Jazz. The Lakers came back from an 18 point deficit a few days ago to collar the Jazz by 11 points in Utah. Tuesday night was a different story as the Jazz were able to keep the Lakers at bay and pull of the Big Upset as a 13 point dog. The Lakers will no doubt come out with a sense of purpose against a Golden State team that pulled off a big upset themselves torching the Blazers on the road by 21 points as a 10 point dog. The Lakers fit a nice system here tonight. We want to play on road favorites with no rest that were home favorites of -5 or more last night and scored 90 or less points vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 5 or more. These un rested road favorites cash 82% of the time. Lakers are 5-2 ats as a road favorite from -6.5 to -9. Look for the Lakers to bounce back.
Jack Jones
Nets/Pistons UNDER 200.5
I am siding with the UNDER in this game between the New Jersey Nets and Detroit Pistons Wednesday. My biggest reason for doing so is that both teams will be without their starting point guards. Deron Williams is out for New Jersey with a wrist injury, while Rodney Stuckey is doubtful for Detroit for disciplinary reasons. When teams are without their floor generals, it certainly hampers their offensive production. That's especially the case for both of these teams, but mostly the nets because Williams is one of the best point guards in the business.
Also, both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back here. Both have even more injury concerns as well, as Anthony Morrow and Kris Humphries are each doubtful for the Nets, while Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are questionable for the Pistons. These teams have met three times this season, and the results have been combined scores of 174, 163 and 199 points, respectively. I don't see any way the final combined score of their 4th meeting tonight sees 200-plus points given the situation each team is in and their recent history. Roll with the UNDER in this contest Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -132
The Giants have had some struggles against the Padres but not with ace Tim Lincecum on the bump. In fact, the Giants are 8-3 in Lincecum's last 11 starts vs. the Padres. Also, the two-time NL Cy Young winner is carrying a nasty 2.09 lifetime ERA against these division rivals. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 5-0 in Lincecum's last 5 starts as a road favorite. Take San Francisco.
BEN BURNS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The price on St. Louis has fallen from its opener. Given Carpenter's dominance of the Pirates, I feel that provides us with very fair value.
Carpenter was very solid in his 2011 debut but didn't factor in the decision. He should be happy to see Pittsburgh. Indeed, Carpenter has gone a perfect 10-0 with a superb 1.85 ERA in his last 13 starts vs. the Pirates.
While they're off to a slow start this season, the Cardinals are still 99-68 at home the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, the Pirates are still an ugly 42-124 (-55.2) on the road.
Given the Pirates' poor road stats, its no surprise that the Cards are 9-2 the last 11 times they were a host in the series. While the Pirates should be somewhat improved this season, with Carpenter on the mound, the Cards should still be able to grab the rubber game of this series. Consider laying the wood.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Clippers +11
The Los Angeles Clippers are playing out their season. This team has finally gotten healthy at the end of the year, and they have not been an easy out for playoff contenders at all. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to find out the hard way tonight. The Clippers are 10-7 in their last 17 games overall, which includes back-to-back victories over the Thunder and Grizzlies, two teams that are in the playoffs in the Western Conference. Off such an emotional win over the Nuggets last night, a team that they will likely face in the first round of the playoffs, this is clearly a letdown spot for OKC. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Take the Clippers and the points.
Teddy Covers
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Orioles are 4-0, in first place in the ultra-competitive AL East for one reason and one reason only – strong pitching. Baltimore has allowed a grand total of four runs in their first four games – two from the starters, two from the bullpen. Fifth starter Brad Bergeson is not poised to continue that stretch of dominance.
Bergeson’s splits clearly show a history of early season struggles: five career starts in April with an ERA of 9.00 in those starts; opponents hitting a whopping .376 against him. He doesn’t have a single quality start amongst those five outings, and in four of the five, he failed to last more than four innings. Bergeson didn’t have a strong spring training and he’s the fifth starter in the rotation only because Jeremy Guthrie is on the DL. Facing a Detroit lineup that pounded out 19 runs in three games against the Yankees over the weekend, we can expect him to struggle tonight.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s Jason Verlander is a legitimate ace; a true #1 starter. He’s dominated this Orioles lineup repeatedly throughout his career: 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA in seven starts against them with a including an eleven strikeout gem in his lone appearance against Baltimore last year. Verlander held the Yankees to three hits in his season debut last week, primed to help us cash our Tigers tickets here. 2* Take Detroit.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -159
I believe this is where Boston finally breaks through with its first win of the season. When taking the ball following a team loss, Matsuzaka was a staff-best 5-1 last season. The guy was brilliant in winning both of his starts against Cleveland, improving to 4-1 lifetime against the Tribe with an ERA of 2.34. He's made 2 career starts at Progressive Field and won them both, limiting the Indians to only four hits over 15 scoreless innings. Take the Red Sox.