SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Denver (50-27, 32-39-6 ATS) at Oklahoma City (48-29, 46-31 ATS)
The Thunder try to rebound from last night’s heartbreaking loss in Utah when they take on the rival Nuggets in a key Northwest Division battle at the Ford Center.
Denver has posted a pair of home victories in its last two starts (1-1 ATS), following a 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS nosedive, in which the last five of those games were on the highway. On Saturday, the Nuggets rallied from a halftime hole to drop the Clippers 98-90, but fell short as a hefty 13½-point home favorite. Carmelo Anthony and Co. have lost five of their last six on the road (0-5-1 ATS) to drop three games under .500 as a visitor at 18-21 (14-20-5 ATS), averaging 103.1 ppg and giving up just a shade more (103.5).
Kevin Durant poured in 45 points and point guard Russell Westbrook added 27 Tuesday night in Utah, but it wasn’t enough as Oklahoma City suffered a 140-139 overtime loss when the Jazz hit the game-winner at the buzzer. The loss snapped the Thunder’s four-game winning streak, but they did cash as a six-point underdog and they’re still 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games. Oklahoma City has followed up a 10-1 SU run at home (including a six-game winning streak) by going just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five at the Ford Center.
The Nuggets are a half-game behind the Jazz in the Northwest Division standings, with Oklahoma City sitting 2½ games back in third place. Only 3½ games separate the second- and eighth-place teams in the Western Conference.
Denver is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, but Oklahoma City had cashed in seven in a row before going to Colorado on March 3 and getting crushed 119-90 as a seven-point road underdog. Still, the Nuggets have failed to cash in their last four trips to the Ford Center, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups.
The Thunder, who have the league’s third-best spread-covering record, are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 in the Western Conference and 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six starts when playing on consecutive nights. The Nuggets are on ATS runs of 8-3-3 against foes with a win percentage above .600 and 12-3-1 after three or more days off, though they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-9-1 overall, 0-5-1 on the road and 1-4-1 against winning teams.
Oklahoma City is on “over” rolls of 5-0 overall, 9-2 against winning teams and 23-9-1 when going on no rest, and the over for Denver is on streaks of 5-1 after a break of three days or more and 4-1 in division play. However, the under is 8-2 in the Nuggets’ last 10 overall and 4-1 in their last five on the road.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 19 of the last 26 meetings overall and six of the last seven in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and OVER
Memphis (39-38, 38-37-2 ATS) at Dallas (50-27, 32-44-1 ATS)
The Mavericks, battling with a host of teams for second place in the Western Conference, take on the freefalling Grizzlies at American Airlines Center.
Memphis is coming off Tuesday’s 113-103 home loss to Houston, falling outright as a 4½-point favorite. The Grizzlies, who have officially been eliminated from postseason contention, are in a 1-5 SU and ATS funk. They’ve also lost four straight and five of their last six on the road (all SU and ATS). The SU winner has covered the spread in each of Memphis’ nine games overall and each of its last 16 on the highway.
Dallas has followed a 4-1 SU and ATS surge by losing its last two games SU and ATS, both on its home court. Last Thursday, the Mavs got belted 97-82 by Orlando as a 2½-point underdog, and on Saturday, they lost to Oklahoma City 121-116 as a three-point favorite. Dallas is 26-13 at home despite outscoring visitors by just 1.5 ppg (101.8-100.3), but Rick Carlisle’s club has been a pointspread disaster at American Airlines Center, going 9-29-1 ATS overall, including 5-26-1 ATS in the last 32.
The Mavericks lead the Southwest Division by two games over San Antonio, and they’re tied with Denver and Phoenix for the third spot in the Western Conference standings.
These teams met just a week ago, with Dallas rallying from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to nab a 106-102 overtime victory as a two-point road chalk, snapping a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run by Memphis in this rivalry. The home team is still 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests, and the underdog has cashed in four of the last five meetings.
The Grizzlies are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-4 on the road, 0-5 as an underdog and 2-7 in division games. Meanwhile, In addition to going just 5-26-1 ATS in its last 31 home games, Dallas is on further pointspread dips of 12-30-1 as a favorite, 5-25-1 as a home chalk, 6-19-1 when laying five to 10½ points at home, 2-6-1 in Southwest Division play and 5-15-1 after three or more days off.
The under is on surges of 9-4 for Memphis against winning teams, 5-2 overall for Dallas, 4-1 for Dallas at home and 5-2 with the Mavs returning from a break of three or more days. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 14 overall and six of eight in Dallas.
Conversely, the over is on stretches of 20-9 for the Grizzlies as a road underdog, 16-7 for the Grizzlies against teams with a winning home record, 4-1 for the Grizzlies on Wednesday, 4-0 for the Mavs in divisional games, 10-3 for the Mavs as a favorite of 5 to 10½ points and 4-1 for the Mavs on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Antonio (48-29, 42-34-1 ATS) at Phoenix (50-27, 44-32-1 ATS)
The red-hot Suns go after their 19th win in their last 23 games when they play host to the surging Spurs at the U.S. Airways Center.
San Antonio took a three-game SU and ATS winning streak streak to Sacramento on Tuesday and knocked off the Kings 95-86, barely covering as a 7½-point favorite. The Spurs have also won and covered six of their last seven games and they’re 16-5 SU in their last 21 games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20. During this stretch, Gregg Popovich’s squad is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS on the highway. That said, San Antonio remains just 20-18 SU and 19-19 ATS on the highway.
Phoenix had its 10-game winning streak snapped Saturday night in a 107-98 loss at Milwaukee as a two-point pup in the finale of a five-game road trip. That marked only the second time in the past 11 games that the Suns were held below 109 points, as they reached that mark nine times during their winning streak, including four efforts of 120 or more. Phoenix has won five in a row (4-0-1 ATS) at U.S. Airways Center, where the team is 29-9 (22-15-1 ATS), outscoring foes by more than nine ppg (112.3-103.2).
The Suns are tied with Dallas and Denver for the third spot in the Western Conference, a half-game behind Utah. San Antonio is now tied with Oklahoma City for seventh place, one game ahead of Portland.
Phoenix has cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry (1-1 SU), after a three-game SU and ATS stretch by San Antonio. In the most recent clash, the Spurs won 113-110 at home, but the Suns narrowly covered as a four-point ‘dog. In fact, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Spurs are on several ATS upswings, including 6-1 overall, 9-3 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams, 10-1 in the Western Conference, 4-0 as an underdog, 7-2 as a road pup and 12-5-1 against the Pacific Division. The Suns are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after a break of three days or more, but the ATS streaks turn upward from there, including 21-8-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), 8-1-1 when laying five to 10½ points, 6-1 against Southwest Division foes and 15-6-1 versus the Western Conference.
Phoenix is on “under” strings of 4-1 after three or more days off and 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and the under is 4-0-1 in San Antonio’s last five on the road, 9-2-1 in its last 12 as a road underdog and 12-4-1 in its last 17 when playing on back-to-back nights. The over, though, is on a 7-0 run at home for the Suns following a road trip of seven or more days and is 8-3 in Phoenix’s last 11 against the Southwest Division.
Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six overall (3-1 last four), with the last two meetings topping the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)
The Braves, who drubbed Chicago in the season opener, send out right-hander Jair Jurrjens (14-10, 2.60 ERA in 2009) opposite the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (11-9, 3.65) as this three-game series continues at Turner Field.
Atlanta pounded out a 16-5 victory Monday before these two squads took Tuesday off. The Braves piled up six runs in the first inning and six more in the eighth inning, shutting out Chicago over the last six innings. Atlanta ended last season with six straight losses – all at home – but has now won five in a row against the N.L. Central and is 42-20 in its last 62 games after a day off.
The Cubs are in a number of ruts dating back to last season, including 1-5 overall, 1-4 against the N.L. East, 1-4 against right-handers and 2-5 after a day off. In addition, Atlanta has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row.
Chicago won six of Dempster’s last nine starts in ‘09, with the righty going 5-2 and throwing at least six innings in all but one of those outings, including a complete-game shutout and a pair of eight-inning stints. He also had a 2.46 ERA in that stretch. However, the veteran right-hander went just 4-5 in 17 road starts last year despite a solid 3.38 ERA, and the Cubs are just 5-14 in Dempster’s last 19 outings on the highway.
Dempster is a meager 2-11 with a 5.14 ERA in 26 career appearances (15 starts) against Atlanta. In his lone start against the Braves last year, he was dealt a 2-0 road loss, giving up both runs in 6 2/3 innings.
Jurrjens had a sterling run to finish 2009, going 4-0 in his final five starts while allowing just four earned runs over 37 innings, for a superb 0.97 ERA. Still, the Braves went just 2-5 in the right-hander’s last seven home starts and 1-11 in his last 12 outings against N.L. Central foes. And despite a 2.45 ERA in his 18 outings at Turner Field last year, Jurrjens was a modest 7-6.
Jurrjens has just one career outing against the Cubs, a 4-2 road loss last July in which he gave up all four runs in six innings of play.
The Cubs are on a bundle of “under” runs, including 8-3-2 overall, 9-1-2 against winning teams, 4-1-2 on the road and 5-0 with Dempster taking the ball. Likewise, the Braves are on “under” surges of 5-1 after a day off, 6-2 following a win, 6-2 in Jurrjens’ last eight starts of 2009 and 8-1 with Jurrjens facing an N.L. Central foe.
Finally, Monday’s scoring bonanza halted a five-game “under” stretch in this rivalry, so the over is now 7-2-1 in the last 10 Atlanta clashes between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (1-1) at Boston (1-1)
John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA) makes his Red Sox debut as Boston wraps up its three-game set against the bitter rival Yankees, who will send veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) to the Fenway Park mound.
After blowing leads of 5-1 and 7-5 in Sunday’s season-opener, New York took care of business Tuesday with a 6-4 victory. The Yankees remain on positive runs of 77-32 overall, 41-16 against A.L. East rivals and 48-19 against right-handed starters. Boston is still on a 56-25 run at Fenway, but the Sox have now lost seven of their last eight against the A.L. East.
Boston won the first eight meetings of the 2009 season in this storied rivalry, but New York has since gone 10-2. However, the Sox are 9-3 in the last 12 clashes at Fenway Park, and the home team has taken 15 of the last 20 battles going back to the start of last year.
Lackey had spent his entire eight-year career with the Angels before signing with the BoSox in the offseason. The right-hander began last season on the disabled list and didn’t throw his first game until May 16. The Angels lost three of his last four regular-season starts, as he went 1-1 with a pair of no-decisions, but Lackey bounced back to go 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA in three playoff starts.
Lackey threw 7 1/3 shutout innings in a 5-0 home win over Boston in the first round of the postseason, took the loss in a 4-1 road setback to the Yankees in the ALCS opener, then got the win in a 7-6 victory over New York in Game 5 of the ALCS. Lackey is 5-7 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 career regular-season starts against the Yanks. He’s also just 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA in nine regular-season outings at Fenway.
The Yankees went 1-3 in Pettitte’s last four regular-season starts in 2009, but the lefty starred in the postseason, going 4-0 with a 3.52 ERA in five starts. That included two wins against the Phillies in the World Series, which Pettitte helped close out in a 7-3 Game 6 victory. New York is on runs behind Pettitte of 7-3 on the highway, 46-22 in division play and 30-9 on Wednesday.
Pettitte is a solid 18-9 with a 3.74 ERA in 36 career appearances (34 starts) against Boston, including 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four starts last season, though he split his two Fenway Park appearances and posted a 6.55 ERA. The Pinstripes are 8-3 in Pettitte’s last 11 starts against the Sox and are on a 4-1 run with the lefty hurling at Fenway.
The first two games of this series have topped the total, and the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry and 38-18-1 in the last 57 battles in Boston. Also, New York is on “over” runs 6-0 dating to last year’s Fall Classic and 7-0-1 on the road. However, with Pettitte taking the pill, the Yanks are on “under” rolls of 55-26-3 overall, 34-15-2 on the highway and 23-11-2 in the A.L. East.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, carry “over” trends of 5-0 at home, 10-2 at Fenway against lefties and 5-0 within the division. Also, the over cashed in four of Lackey’s final six starts with the Angels in 2009.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Marc Lawrence
Charlotte Bobcats at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets host the Bobcats in New Orleans Wednesday night looking to bounce back off a 28-point embarrassing loss at New Jersey in their most recent game Saturday night. Meanwhile, Charlotte enters off a double revenge home win over Atlanta last night knowing they are 0-5 SU and ATS in their franchise history on this floor. With New Orleans 10-1 ATS at home in games off a loss of 20 or more points, look for the Hornets to get back on the win track here tonight.
Cajun Sports
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St Louis Cardinals -130
The Cardinals faceoff against the host Reds on Wednesday night with right-hander Adam Wainwright taking the bump for the Cards and right-hander Johnny Cueto takes the rubber for the Reds. Both starters are at .500 or below against each team but Wainwright finds himself and the Cards in several key technical situations that point directly to a St. Louis victory tonight. The Cards are 35-18 against the money line in April games the last 3 seasons and 62-46 against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons. Wainwright is 14-2 against the money line in road games the last 2 seasons, 12-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 the last 2 seasons, 18-4 against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997 and 10-0 against the money line in road games in night games the last 2 seasons. With significant technical support for the visitor we will back the always solid St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night as they grab another victory over the Reds.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 4 Cincinnati Reds 2
David Chan
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Minnesota Twins +120.
Carl Pavano is one of those pitchers who we profiled in the “Expected ERA” articles as being somewhat unlucky in 2009. This free selection is meant as something of a follow-up to point out the type of situation where we need to look at betting such an arm.
Pavano’s ERA was 5.10 last year, a gaudy headline number, but the Expected ERA formula says it should have been 3.98. Ineffective relief and a couple bouts of Gopheritis sealed his fate. He has a great skill set, though: in 199 IP last year, he fanned 147 while walking only 39.
In Pavano’s final Grapefruit tune-up, the Twins’ first game at their new yard, he coughed up two more taters, so that’s a little troubling, but he still held St. Louis to three runs in seven innings.
Angels’ pitcher Ervin Santana is only 27 but looked like he broke down last year. He’s losing velocity on his fastball, and it looks like he’ll fight his elbow for the rest of his career. He’s had good stuff the last two weeks since returning from a skipped start due to an inflamed bursa sac, but did not get through five innings on either occasion.
Minnesota and Pavano should win this game 50-52 percent of the time. Taking Pavano as a dog is the percentage play.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix
PICK: Phoenix -6.5
These two teams have both been playing great basketball. The Suns had their 10-game win streak snapped over the weekend at the Bradley Center vs. Milwaukee, while the Spurs have been rolling thru the league's toughest late-season schedule, and recently defeated the Lakers and Boston on the road, and Orlando and Cleveland at home. Last night, the Spurs had a workman-like victory over the Sacramento Kings, and now must play the Suns without rest. In contrast, Phoenix will be playing tonight with three days' of rest, and that's the key factor in our selection on the Suns. And over the past 20 years, NBA teams with 3+ days' of rest, off a SU/ATS loss, are a powerful 55% ATS vs. unrested foes off a SU/ATS Win. Amare Stoudemire dominated the Spurs the last time these teams met (though San Antone escaped with a narrow win). He scored a then-season-high 41 points, and San Antonio's interior defense had no answer for him. Look for Phoenix to wear down a weary San Antonio team in the 2nd half tonight. Lay the points.
Jim Feist
Denver vs. Oklahoma City
Play: Under 210
Denver's funk the last month has been with the offense because of injuries, going under 100 points in 8 of the last 10 games. That explains an 8-2 run under the total, plus a 10-4 run under the total the last 14 games. They take on an Oklahoma City team that is 10th in the NBA in points allowed, and sixth in field goal shooting defense. Those are the main reasons for the Thunder turnaround. Playing their third game in four nights and the second of a back to back spot, don't look for the home team to play uptempo. Play the Nuggets/Thunder Under the total.
Triple Threat Sports
Memphis (+) over Dallas
Dallas rested, at home, and Memphis has run up the white flag, setting Gasol and others down for the year. With that in mind this of course looks like a Mavs blowout. However, this Dallas team has defied all logic most of the season, and in fact trusting Dallas as home chalk - even in other similar great situations - has proven costly, as they are 4-25 ATS in their last 29 home chalk roles, with three covers coming in "important" games against the Lakers, Suns, and Nuggets. Dirk and Co. (2-5 SU & 0-7 ATS with 3 days or more of rest this year, another crazy stat) have played down to level of lesser opponents like Knicks, Nets, T-Wolves, etc, all year, and no reason to see them blowing out the Grizz in this one, and if you wait you can probably get +10 by gametime.
Bryan Leonard
Colorado at Milwaukee
Play: Colorado
Aaron Cook gets the start for the Rockies and he has performed very well against Milwaukee. Last year in two starts he allowed a single run and held the Brewers to a .216 batting average. In his last five starts against Milwaukee the Brewers never managed more than four runs in any game.
Doug Davis looks to be resurrected in Milwaukee this year but he hasn't had much success against Colorado. In his career some of the key Rockies players have hit him extremely well. For example, Tulowitzki has a .353 average, Stewart .375 and Helton .462. Even Fowler who isn't known for his power has hit two home runs against Davis in only five career at bats. Last year while pitching for Arizona Davis faced 51 Rockies hitters with 14 of them crossing the plate.
Colorado has won 6 of 9 games in Milwaukee even after a 7-5 defeat yesterday. Look for the Rockies to bounce back with a victory this afternoon.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Golden State Warriors
Golden State had won three of their last four games prior to last night’s blowout loss against Washington. The Warriors shot only 39% from the floor while allowing the Wizards to make 52% of their shots. We think those numbers will improve vastly against a Minnesota team that has given up on the season, and have won only once in their last 19 games. And with the Lakers in town next for the T-Wolves, any thought of getting for one last game before the end of the season will be directed towards that Lakers contest. Golden State can pile up the points, and they should win big here tonight.
Steve Merril
Cleveland vs. Chicago
Play: Under 8.5
The White Sox and Indians take the field for game two of their series on Wednesday night. It's an intriguing match-up as Jake Peavy takes the mound for Chicago. Peavy has not faced the Indians since 2005 but is coming off a stellar spring with a 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio. Peavy seems to be extremely healthy and is facing a less than stellar Indians offense which put up just four hits against Mark Buehrle in their season opener. Fausto Carmona is an interesting pitcher. He finished the spring with a 1.38 ERA and had just two walks in 26 innings. Carmona flashed some improvement towards the end of the 2009 campaign including a 5-1 win against the White Sox on September 30th when he gave up just one run and five hits in seven innings of work. Carmona has given up just five runs in 19.7 innings pitched over his last three outings against the White Sox. Alex Rios (2-14), Alexei Ramirez (1-5), Omar Vizquel (0-3), Andruw Jones (0-3), and Jayson Nix (0-3) have all had their problems with Carmona.
MTi Sports
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are 11-0 as a favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Consider the Halos.
Tom Freese
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Houston is just playing out the string as they have had a difficult season. Aaron Brooks scores 19.6 points a game. Forward Luis Scola scores 16.1 points a game. Trevor Ariza scores 14.7 points a game. The Rockets score 101.9 points a game and they allow 102.5 points a game. Houston is 5-17 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 5-18 ATS their last 23 home games. Utah has the second best record in the Western Conference. They take on a Houston team that has nothing to play for. The Jazz are led by Carlos Boozer and his 19.7 points and 11.3 rebounds a game. Point Guard Deron Williams scores 18.7 points and dishes out 10.6 assists a game. The Jazz score 104.5 points a game and they allow 98.7 points a game. Utah is 12-3-1 ATS with no rest and they are 33-16-3 ATS their last 52 games overall. PLAY ON UTAH -
LEE KOSTROSKI
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
PICK: San Francisco Giants -147
San Francisco has a great pitching staff but the additions to the offense are paying dividends. The Giants have 18 hits in two games as newcomers Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff have made significant contributions. The Giants were not a strong road team last season but this is a team playing with a lot of confidence and the veteran presence in the lineup should help keep the team focused while giving quality at-bats. The Giants are not known for offense but this could simply be a favorable match-up as San Francisco has out-scored Houston 52-20 in the past eight meetings.
The Astros have looked like the offensively challenged team with 16 strikeouts in two games and only two runs scored. With Lance Berkman out of the lineup the offensive lacks some punch and the speed at the top of the lineup has not led to any gains yet. Credit is due to Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito for great starts but the task is not any easier with Matt Cain on the mound and the San Francisco bullpen has also proved quite capable. The bullpen looks like a very big area of question for the Astros but so far the team is yet to build a lead in 2010.
Cain will have a difficult time repeating his great 2009 season and most projections have him bouncing back to earth a little bit. Cain still can be a very good pitcher and he has a career ERA of just 3.53. Cain was sharp this spring with a 2.95 ERA and a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio so there is reason to believe he can have success again and the contrasting style with yesterday’s starter Zito can only help his cause. Cain was 7-4 in his road decisions last season and he pitched eight solid innings in his lone appearance in Houston.
Signing Brett Myers had a feel of desperation for the Astros after bidding for several more established and consistent starters. Myers had some great moments with the Phillies and was instrumental in the 2008 World Series victory but his recent track record as a starter has been shaky at best. Myers was removed from the rotation after just ten starts last season and he allowed at least three runs in eight of those ten outings. Myers was somewhat better as a reliever last season but after serious work this spring as a starter there is no indication he’ll be able to deliver. Myers allowed 32 hits in 25 spring innings with an ERA of 5.68 and a 1.74 WHIP. San Francisco is 25-12 in the last 37 meetings in Houston so this could be another big game for the upstart Giants while still priced very reasonably.
EZWINNERS
San Francisco Giants -150
The Astros entered this season with big question marks regarding their offensive capabilities. Two games into the season after facing Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito and we see why those question marks are there. Houston has only managed to score two runs in the first eighteen innings of this season. Without Berkman in the lineup due to knee problems the run support is just not there for the Astros and it doesn't get any easier in this game against the Giant's Matt Cain. San Francisco's offense was pretty anemic last season, but they did well against the Astros at Minute Maid park. The Giants already took care of the Astro's top two pitchers to open this series and after Roy O and Magic Wandi there is a huge drop off in talent in the Astro's starting rotation. I expect the Giants to take care of Brett Myers today. Play on San Francisco.
Sac Lawson
COL (-115) vs MIL
If there is one team on this planet that Doug Davis struggles with more than Colorado, I'd love to hear of it. Fact is, over his last 8 starts against Colorado he is just 1-5 with an ERA close to 6. In my estimation, Davis would need tons of run support today to pull of a win against this Rockies lineup that has historically beat him up and down the block.
The thing about Davis getting run support, however, is the fact that Aaron Cook owns Milwaukee. He's only had three starts over the last three seasons against the Brew Crew, but they've all been rock solid starts, and as a result his ERA against this team is under 2! I realize the Rockies have burned a lot of their pen the last couple days, but Cook is a guy that can get ground ball outs quickly, he'll keep his pitch count high, and pitch deep into the contest.
I fully expect this line to shoot up a bit.. so take Colorado now for some early MLB action Wednesday