Stephen Nover
N.Y. Knicks at INDIANA (-10)
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the hottest home teams winning nine of their last 10 at Conseco Fieldhouse. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 home contests.
The Pacers are rested, having last played on Sunday. They had their best offensive showing of the season in their last game, defeating Houston, 133-102, at home. A rejuvenated Danny Granger is playing well for the Pacers, which makes them a tough foe for any opponent, especially at home.
The Knicks are crippled, weary and in a bad situational spot. The Knicks are without much of their limited firepower these days missing Tracy McGrady, Al Harrington and Wilson Chandler.
New York recently returned from a five-game West Coast trip. The Knicks had one day off to rest before hosting the Celtics last night. There was huge line movement against the Knicks, but New York pulled the upset, winning 104-101.
Now it's back on the road for the sixth time in the last seven games for the Knicks. This also marks their third game in four days.
The Pacers are playing their finest ball with the pressure off. They have won eight of their past 11 games, with their only losses during this span coming to the Cavaliers by five on the road, to the Hawks on the road by five and at home in overtime to a red-hot Miami squad that is riding an eight-game winning streak.
2♦ PACERS
Cleveland (+150 ) at WHITE SOX
I'm going to take a nice underdog price on the Indians and Fausto Carmona against Jake Peavy.
It's too much to expect Carmona to return to his 19-win form of three years ago. But I do expect him to be much better than he has been during the past two seasons.
Carmona looked good at the end of last season. He continued to look good during winter ball and then followed that up by being sharp in spring training. He's back to being aggressive in the strike zone. His problem has been walks, so this is an excellent sign that he has regained his command.
Carmona has beaten the White Sox the past four times he's faced them, compiling a 2.03 ERA during the process.
Peavy was dominant at pitcher-friendly Petco Park before getting injured and then coming to the American League. He's still learning the AL.
This line has value to Cleveland. The oddsmaker is judging Carmona by his last two seasons and giving Peavy too much respect. Peavy has to earn it again being in the stronger league and in a new ballpark that isn't so accommodating to pitchers like Petco, especially when the winds blow out.
4♦ INDIANS
Derek Mancini
Boston at TORONTO (+6)
4 straight Freebie wins with the Bucks Saturday, Warriors Sunday, Mariners Monday, and the Wizards last night! Another NBA home dog that's too good to pass up goes Wednesday!
Boston is having some real issues, losers of 4 of their L5 games SUATS, and a trip across the border isn't going to help, even if Bosh isn't playing. Let me tell you the biggest problem I have with this match up, the line opened with the Celtics as less than a basket favorite, then when Bosh was ruled out, sky-rocketed to its current price... No player, no matter how good, is worth that many points. Ever.
Even with Bosh out, how many times have we seen a team pick up its play in the absence of their star player? Gamblers always overestimate an injury, and they'll pay for it again tonight. Of course they lost in Cleveland without Bosh, but its a totally different match up at home against a struggling Celtics team!
We saw Jarret Jack pour in 23 points in Cleveland, and let's not forget Turkoglu has been coming off the bench since his "I'm sick, but I got caught clubbing the same night" incident. Along with Bargnani and Calderon, this Raptors team has enough talent to keep this game close (and even win based on the Celtics terrible play of late). Grab the points with Raptors, as they pick up the slack in Bosh's absence tonight at home.
3♦ TORONTO
St. Louis at CINCINNATI (+130)
4 straight Freebie wins with the Bucks Saturday, Warriors Sunday, Mariners Monday, and the Wizards last night! I'm seeing a good spot to grab that plus money with the Reds tonight at home.
After watching the Cards blast the Reds Monday, thanks to a monster game from Pujols, things get a little easier for Cincy tonight. Despite having to face last year's NL-leader in wins, Adam Wainwright, this match up bodes well for Cincy, because the Cards righty has struggled vs. the Reds, posting a 4.91 career ERA against them.
With everyone focusing on Pujols and the Cards offense, gamblers are failing to see a Reds offense that looked good with Dickerson, Votto, Bruce, and Rolen all getting in on the action Monday. They had some issues against Carpenter, but who doesn't? Wainwright is a great pitcher, but you can't deny his issues vs. the Reds.
No question Johnny Cueto wore down last season. He came sprinting out of the gate over his first 16 starts (8-4, 2.69 ERA) and just couldn't maintain his level of play after that. But when he's fresh (like he is now), he's one of the better young arms in the National League. He looked good in the Spring, while Wainwright did not (although not always a great indicator), and I'm projecting an excellent season for the young righty. The Reds get it done behind Cueto tonight.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Karl Garrett
Washington at ORLANDO (-13')
I smell blowout tonight in Orlando, as the Magic take on the Wizards.
Washington had won the first 2 games of the season series against Orlando, but on March 13th the Magic handled their business against the Wizards in DC, romping them by 14 as the double-digit favorite. I suspect they will romp them against tonight on their home hardwood.
The Wizards have actually won thier past of games, and 3 of their last 4, but their overall spread run in this series is just 9-19 the last 28 meetings with Orlando.
Throw in the Magic's 7-3-1 spread mark their last 11 home games, and this one has "blowout" written all over it.
Lay the lumber!
2♦ ORLANDO
Chuck O'Brien
Denver at OKLAHOMA CITY (-2')
Wednesday’s free play comes in the NBA, as I’ll back the Thunder at home against Denver.
Oklahoma City might be a little shellshocked after that brutal one-point overtime loss at Utah last night. And that disappointment might linger for a quarter or so tonight against the Nuggets. But by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, I expect the amazing Kevin Durant and his band of brothers to be comfortably ahead of a Denver squad that’s just not right without coach George Karl.
Although the Nuggets have won consecutive games over the Blazers and Clippers, they actually trailed Los Angeles at home on Saturday and needed a furious second-half rally to beat a team that threw in the towel on the season weeks ago. And that game was at home. Now Denver has to go on the road, where it has lost five of its last six road games, going 0-5-1 ATS, and they remain a sub-.500 team away from Colorado. On top of that, the Nuggets have cashed just once in their last 11 games overall.
Oklahoma City has won 13 of its last 16 home games, and with last night’s spread-cover in Utah, the Thunder have cashed in six of eight overall and 11 of 14 against elite opponents (those with a winning percentage better than .600). They’ve also covered in 11 of 13 in the role of small favorite (less than five points).
Oklahoma City has owned this rivalry from a pointspread perspective, too, cashing in seven of the last eight meetings overall, including four straight at home – including a 101-84 rout of the Nuggets as a two-point favorite on Jan. 29, the only previous meeting this season in Oklahoma City.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio (+6') at PHOENIX
Delivered my fourth straight FREE winner on Tuesday when the Yankees got the plus-money upset in Boston, running my free play record to 79-52-3. Tonight I have an NBA winner for you as I grab the points with the Spurs in Phoenix.
Spurs on the second night of a back-to-back here but I can’t go against a team that looked as good as they did on Sunday in Los Angeles. Did you see what they did to the Lakers in a virtual must-win situation? They owned Los Angeles in the second half and made it look easy.
Now they go to Phoenix after scoring a lackluster 95-86 win in Sacramento on Tuesday, narrowly covering as a 7 ½-point favorite. But you’ll see a motivated team tonight as the Spurs have won and covered in six of their last seven overall and they are 16-5 in their last 21, including 16-4 ATS in their last 20. On the highway, this team is locked in at 8-4 straight-up and 9-3 ATS.
Phoenix lost its 10-game winning streak on Saturday in Milwaukee, falling 107-98 as a two-point underdog as they closed a five-game road trip with the ugly loss. The Suns are battling Dallas and Denver for third place in the Western Conference, a half a game behind Utah. San Antonio is tied with Oklahoma City in seventh place in the West.
In this rivalry, the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings, plus the Spurs are on ATS streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 10-1 vs. Western Conference teams and 12-5-1 against the Pacific Division. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 after a rest of three or more days.
Both teams are hot, but San Antonio has the look of a team locked in right now. Grab the points with the Spurs.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Chris Jordan
New York (+130) at BOSTON
Now 2-0 with my first two MLB freebies, as I've hit the first two games of the Mariners/Athletics series, I'm back in this AL East rivalry. And I think I like the value with the Yankees and Andy Pettitte.
I know Boston won the first meeting, 9-7, but the fact is the Bombers touched its starters Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for a combined nine runs in 9-2/3 innings over the first two games. I like the aggressiveness and think it carries over to tonight against newest Red Sox John Lackey.
Over 16 regular season starts against the Yankees, Lackey sports a career 5-7 mark and 4.66 ERA. Though it was in an opposing uniform, it is notable to mention he is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA in his career at Fenway.
Give me the veteran in Pettitte, who ranked fourth among junior-circuit starters with a .326 slugging percentage against and fifth with a .226 batting average against in 14 starts after the All-Star break.
I like the underdog value here.
2♦ YANKEES
Jeff Benton
My seven-day free-play winning streak came to an end Tuesday as the Warriors got ripped at Washington. Still, I’m 16-2 with my last 18 free selections, and I’m also on runs of 55-24-2, 45-19-2 and 36-14-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Tuesday, I’ll go back to the baseball diamond and take the plus money with the Yankees in their series finale against the Red Sox. This is all about one thing: I don’t trust John Lackey, who signed a big-money free-agent deal to move from Anaheim to Boston. It was a classic money grab, because Lackey has NEVER had any success at Fenway Park, going 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP and a .314 ERA in nine regular-season starts when pitching in the Green Monster’s shadow – and that doesn’t even include a couple of poor postseason outings.
Lackey has also been a notoriously slow starter, going 11-9 with a 4.85 ERA prior to May 1 – by far his worst ERA of any month of the season. On the other hand, Yankees starter Andy Pettitte has been at his best at the start of the year. He’s 29-22 with a 3.67 ERA in April – only his August numbers (50-19, 3.43 ERA) are better. Pettitte is also one of the few visiting hurlers who doesn’t mind pitching in Fenway Park, as he’s 7-3 with a 3.90 ERA in his career (not including the postseason). Additionally, New York has won eight of Pettitte’s last 11 starts versus the Sox, including four of the last five in Fenway.
With last night’s 6-4 win over the Red Sox, the Yankees have now won 10 of the last 12 against their rivals. They’re also on incredible streaks of 53-22 overall and 41-16 against A.L. East rivals, while the Red Sox have now lost seven of eight to divisional foes.
5♦ NEW YORK YANKEES
LT Profits
Cubs/Braves Under 8½
Jair Jurrjens is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and he has always gotten off to fast starts in his brief career, while Ryan Dempster has resurrected his career.
Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball, while the oft maligned Ryan Dempster has put together two solid seasons in a row and has pitched well vs. the Braves during that time, so do not look for much scoring in Atlanta tonight.
Jurrjens showed enormous potential two years ago, and he then proved that he was no fluke with an even better season last year. Do not let his 14-10 record in 2009 fool you, as he had an outstanding 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 34 starts, meaning he easily could have been a 20-game winner with any run support. He was remarkably consistent, allowing three earned runs or less in 29 out of 34 starts, four earned runs in four other starts and five earned runs just once.
He started the season strong, posting a 1.72 ERA in five April appearances, and he closed 2009 very strong, recording Quality Starts in each of his last 10 outings. In fact, he has a career 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 Aprils outings, and we see no reason why he should not get off to another fast start this season.
As for Dempster, he had a career year 2008, going 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA, so some regression last season was to be expected. Somewhat surprisingly though, he still posted a good 3.85 ERA in 31 starts, so it could be that he is finally fulfilling the potential he displayed when he first came up with the Marlins way back when. He has faced the Braves once each of the last two seasons, and he allowed only two runs on each occasion while allowing just 12 hits in 15.2 innings.
Now, the season opener went easily Over on Monday when the Braves prevailed 16-5, but look for the pitchers to shine in this second game of the season.