Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, April 9

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Cincinnati at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to follow up yesterday's 7-5 win over the Reds (2-6) and come into today's contest with a 7-0 record in Shelby Miller's last 7 home starts against a team with a losing record. St. Louis is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.182; St. Louis (Miller) 15.674
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 953-954: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Hand) 15.862; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.985
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+160); Over

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 17.228; Philadelphia (Hernandez) 14.100
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Under

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 15.286; Atlanta (Santana) 16.522
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 15.259; Cubs (Hammel) 14.131
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); N/A

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 15.116; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.020
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Under

Game 963-964: Oakland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 14.648; Minnesota (Hughes) 15.522
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.495; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Over

Game 967-968: Texas at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ross) 14.911; Boston (Peavy) 16.540
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Under

Game 969-970: Houston at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 14.601; Toronto (Morrow) 14.225
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); Over

Game 971-972: Baltimore at NY Yankees (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.000; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.593
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 15.750; Seattle (Elias) 14.664
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over

Game 975-976: San Diego at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.434; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.607
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Johnson) 13.775; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.122
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Under

Game 979-980: Detroit at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.824; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.723
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 981-982: San Diego at Cleveland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 15.723; Cleveland (Bauer) 14.650
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -126FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yesterday we cashed the total in this game and now we will jump right back on the Brewers here to get the wins as road favorites with a total of 8 or less that won by 5 or more runs as a road favorite, while scoring 10 or more runs and committing no more than 1 error have won 23 of the last 31 vs an opponent off a home loss by 5 or more runs, The Phillies are 0-34 in night games and have Roberto Hernandez making the start. Last season he was a dismal 6-13 with an Era approaching 5. Milwaukee counters with M. Garza and he was solid in his first start going 8 strong allowing just 1 run. In his last 5 starts vs the Phillies he has been dominant allowing just 5 earned runs in 34 innings. With Milwaukee taking 3 of the last 4 in the series, we will look their way tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder at ClippersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a battle for the No. 2 and 3 spots in the West, so plenty is at stake. And that will mean lots of defense from both teams, like a playoff game. Everyone knows how good these offenses are, but the defenses are great, too. Oklahoma City is tops in the West and 3rd in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, plus 11th in points allowed. When they face a good team they play defense: 5-2 under the total vs. a team with a winning percentage of 60% or greater. Meanwhile the LA Clippers play tough defense under new coach Doc Rivers, 14th in points allowed, 7th in field goal shooting defense allowing 44%, plus No. 1 at defending the three pointer. The Clippers are 8-1-1 under the total at home, so look for more defense than oddsmakers expect.

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Thunder vs. ClippersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 213FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Thunder and the Clippers can both certainly score but I think the number will prove to be too high here as it is one of the largest we have seen between these two teams over the past five in the series. The Thunder come in off a game last night in Sacramento where they won 107-92. Kevin Durant had his consecutive games of 25 points or more streak snapped. The LA Clippers are coming off a massive beat down of inner city rival Lakers and were idle. The Clippers should find it much harder to score and beat a tough OKC team looking for revenge here. Keep in mind that the lower number is 14-7 in Thunder games when the total is greater than 210 this season. Also note that the lower number is 9-6 in Clippers home games when the total is 210 or greater. Doc Rivers has preached defense this season to his team and I think in a big game like this so close to the playoffs, you might see a few more defensive stands than you might see earlier in the season. These teams are separated in the conference standings by less than three games and each has a lot to play for. Consider taking the “under.”

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City RoyalsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -109FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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A series victory will be on the line at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday afternoon when the Rays and Royals meet for the final time until July 7. Former Royals prospect Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Rays against the organization that drafted him while Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound for the home team.
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Something interesting happened in Jake Odorizzi's first start for the Rays. He used his changeup more than in his past Major League appearances and it led to seven whiffs out of 17 swings. Odorizzi's main problem at the Major League level has been left-handed hitters and a more effective changeup should go a long way in trying to neutralize that problem. The Royals will send a lot of lefties at Odorizzi, so this start will be a nice litmus test for him. He also used his slider more than in past MLB starts, which helped to induce more ground balls and pop ups. Odorizzi supposedly got tutelage on the changeup from fellow rotation member Alex Cobb, who has one of the game's best. With extra incentive going against his old team, we expect Odorizzi to be on top of his game.
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Jeremy Guthrie has been rather lucky for quite some time now. With declining velocity, declining skills, and an uncanny ability to outpitch his advanced metrics, Guthrie has made a Major League living out of staying healthy and benefiting from one of the league's top defenses. Not many lineups are as patient as the Rays, however, and that makes for a very bad matchup for Guthrie. In his first start against the free-swinging White Sox, Guthrie still managed to walk four batters. He threw just 39.6 percent of his pitches inside the strike zone according to PITCHf/x data. Of the pitches thrown in the zone, the White Sox made contact with every one of them.
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Guthrie allowed 11 baserunners in 4.2 innings and escaped only allowing four runs. Don't expect the same against the Rays if they get runners aboard. That should definitely be the case as Guthrie has allowed between 1.34 and 1.41 baserunners per inning in each of the last three seasons and allowed 1.9 runners per inning in his first start of 2014. As the skills continue to decline, no defense in the world can hide Guthrie from the regression that is coming his way.
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Outside of Guthrie, the Royals have managed to score just 20 runs in their first seven games. A lot of guys are struggling to hit right now for the Royals and since they're not built around the walk, it takes base hits to score runs. With Guthrie on the mound, the Royals will need to snap out of their funk in a hurry and we don't expect that to be the case.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If 'hump day' means anything in the NBA then they should be rockin' and rollin' in Cleveland tonight when the Cavaliers host the Pistons at Quicken Loans Arena. Aside from the game setting up favorably for the Cavs with Cleveland off a home upset loss and Detroit off a makeup game in Atlanta last night it should be noted Mike Brown's bunch is 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six appearances on Wednesday while John Loyer's troops are 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last eleven tires on Wednesdays. With the Cavs still mathematically alive in the playoff chase, and 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home versus sub .400 foes this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

DAVE COKIN

TEXAS RANGERS VS BOSTON RED SOX
PLAY: TEXAS RANGERS +140
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It’s called the Championship Hangover, and it’s a malady that is evidently contagious among title winners regardless of the sport. Right now, the 2013 World Series champs are down with this bug. The Red Sox are a little on the flat side currently. They’re certainly not alone as far as this issue kid concerned. Take a look at the recent kingpins across the board in sports and you’ll readily see that slow starts the next season are really commonplace. I’m not surprised at all to see Boston struggling some at the present time. They’re a little banged up and there’s also no sense of urgency as yet.
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I think the oddsmakers are doing a solid job of adjusting for what the Red Sox are right now as opposed to what they were last season. But there are still some nice prices to be had picking the righter spots to try and beat Boston, and I can see that being the case once again in today’s series windup. The Red Sox are heading to New York for a four-game set with the rival Yankees and I think Jake Peavy might be a shade overpriced today.
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Robbie Ross looked good in his first start for Texas and I think he’s got a great chance to stick as party of the regular rotation for the Rangers. Ross is sneaky fast, which means he doesn’t light up the gun, but can still generate lots of swings and misses. Peavy is never easy, and he seems to really like pitching at Fenway. But the veteran righty wasn’t lights out in his first start and he’s had some trouble in a short sample of work against the Rangers.
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Note that Texas will be without Adrian Beltre today. He apparently did something to a quad, and is heading back to Texas ahead of his team to get an examination. That’s one key component absent from the Rangers lineup . But Shin-Soo Choo is back to his consistently on base ways and it’s not like there aren’t some other pretty good bats in this attack.
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I have Ross as a go with pitcher for now. I like lefties who opposing hitters haven’t seen much of, and it’s not like the Red Sox are blowing up southpaws right now. Plus, his confidence should be sky high off last week’s impressive showing. The price is not outlandish by any means, but there’s enough reward vs. risk here to make the Rangers a playable option today.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Oakland -1 -105 over MINNESOTA
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Phil Hughes is a complete mess. Despite striking out seven batters in his Twins debut in five frames against the free-swinging White Sox, Hughes was still tagged for four runs on seven hits for a BAA of .318. Hughes’ groundball rate over his past three years of 31%, 32% and 32% is the worst in the majors of any starter with at least 50 starts over that three-year span. In his first start against the South Side, his groundball rate was 27%. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, it’s no wonder that Hughes has suffered from gopheritis his entire career. The intense spotlight of New York never seemed to agree with Hughes but even a change of scenery cannot mask the fact that 75% of balls in play have a chance to be hit in the gap or out of the park. Hughes remains pure fade material.
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Meanwhile, Jesse Chavez is one of the more intriguing pitchers in the game. Chavez went 2-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 57 innings pitched last year for the A’s, all in relief. He entered this season with 5.99 ERA in 156 appearances after pitching for six other teams since 2008 but with his new team came a new approach. Chavez threw very few fastballs and a lot more cutters and it seems to have worked. Chavez’s skills history and low hr/f suggests it was a career year but we’re not buying that at all. Chavez’s new pitch mix led to a high strikeout rate of 11.5 K’s per nine in August and September last season, not to mention a groundball rate of 55%. In his first start this year, Chavez held the hot-hitting Mariners to one earned run in six full and his groundball rate was 63%. Chavez has new found skills and we’re certainly not ready to dismiss them as a fluke.
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Cincinnati +128 over ST. LOUIS
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Regarding Mike Leake, it's been deviations in search of a mean for this control specialist. Base proficiencies - control, strikeout rate, command and groundball rate have taken root but a low K rate means more situation dependence (and luck), leading to W-L and ERA swings. Be mindful of uneven results, but 2012-2013 xERA consistency sets a clear mid-line expectation. In other words, Leake has a low-risk skill set but one without much upside. He’s not going to dazzle but Leake’s elite groundball rate of 55% and strong control provide a nice floor. He’ll usually keep his team in the game. That said, this one is more about fading Shelby Miller than backing Mike Leake.
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Miller saw his share of ups and downs last year in his first full big league season. Specifically, he had a stellar first half that landed him on the NL All-Star team and struggled as the season wore on—to the point he was left off the Cardinals' Division Series roster. That decision certainly didn’t help his confidence. Miller's underlying skills amplify his second-half struggles. He walked almost twice as many batters a game and struck out two fewer per 9 IP. Miller benefited from high strand rates throughout the season but he was actually a tad luckier in the second half. His hr/f almost doubled and he struggled with gopheritis during an ugly month of August. No matter how talented, when a young starter struggles late in his first full season, conventional wisdom says he merely ran out of gas. We’re not sure that was the case with Miller. Miller’s strikeout rate fell off a cliff in five September starts and his control wasn't the same after the All-Star break. In his first start this year against the Pirates, he walked three batters and struck out just two in 5.1 innings. He also allowed five earned runs on six hits. You can bet there are a lot of eyes watching to see how he pitches in April and May. Miller is feeling the pressure of having to perform well or he’ll be riding buses again real soon. And while the results from the two halves of last season vary dramatically, the results since last July indicate that Miller is a pitcher in trouble and that puts him on our fade list for at least this one start.
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N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA
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Zack Wheeler had a solid rookie season in 2013 on the surface: 3.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. While his overall skills did not support that ERA, he was dominant in flashes. In August of last year for example, Wheeler went 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA and struck out 36 batters in 36 innings. And check out his groundball rate by month: 38%, 40%, 44%, 53%. He's another young righty who was victimized entirely by LH bats but showed dominance against righties. Wheeler had some ups-and-downs but he also had a stretch of eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. He’s an out-pitch versus lefties away from being close to elite and if he figures that out this future #1 starter could make strides quickly. The Braves were shutout by Bartolo Colon yesterday and they are now hitting a measly .220 on the year, which adds to Wheeler’s appeal taking back a tag.

We also like that Wheeler has a game under his belt while Earvin Santana does not. Santana is the Jekyll and Hyde of pitchers. He had a brutal first half last year but made a nice rebound in the second half. Still, his control has never been that good and itappears to be trending the wrong way. Santana gave up five earned runs on eight hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in his start for Triple-A Gwinnett last Friday. One has to wonder if the Braves pitching staff were healthy, whether or not they would’ve even signed Santana. Santana backers need to pause before jumping on his 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP from 2013 to recall that he's only a year removed from a 5.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In his first start of the year and coming off a spring in which that aforementioned outing was his only outing of the spring, Santana is a huge risk in this price range and one we want no part of.

Brandon Shively

Mets vs. Braves
Play: Under 7

I like this game to stay UNDER the Total tonight. Wheeler is a youngster that can use all 4 pitches effectively against a Braves lineup that is not hitting the ball, plain and simple. The Braves are hitting .220 on the season and are ranked 28th in SLG%, averaging only 2.2 runs per game. Wheeler saw the Braves three times last year in his rookie season and the Heyward, Justin Upton, Gerald Laird, and Evan Gattis are a combined 0-for-20 vs. Wheeler. With these guys struggling at the plate, I see no reason for them to break out of their funk now. The Braves will call on Ervin Santana who has been pitching in the American League for Years. He is a durable pitcher that finished last season with the Royals with a very respectable 3.24 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. The Mets are hitting .195 this season with David Wright, Eric Young, and Curtis Granderson all struggling hitting below .200. This will be Santana's first start of the season and I'm expecting a 7+ inning performance and to count on the bullpen to seal the deal. The Braves bullpen has been solid this season with a 1.35 ERA as well and we should see a final score in the 3-1 or 4-2 range tonight. The UNDER is now 12-3-1 in the Met's last 16 when the Total is set at 7-8.5, while the UNDER is 18-7-1 in the Braves last 26 when the Total is set at 7-8.5. Add in the fact that the UNDER is 4-1 the last 5 meetings when these teams play each other and we should see an EASY UNDER tonight.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Bill Biles

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +124

The Phillies are coming off a bad game in their home opener. They let Ryan Braun the Philly Killer beat them with 3 home runs and 7 RBI'S. That wont happen again today. The Phils will not let Braun beat them again in this series. I believe the Phillies to bounce back and come out with their first home win of the season. I expect Chase Utley to return to the lineup from sickness to lead the Phils to a win.

Ray Monohan

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Boston Celtics +7

The Hawks are looking like they are probably going to make the playoffs, despite their best efforts to avoid them. Boston has won two of three against Atlanta this season and I don’t think the Hawks are justified in being a 7.5 point favourite against a team they have struggled with this season. Lots of injuries on both sides in this one so it could be kind of sloppy. Avoid for daily fantasy but Boston is a nice value opportunity.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7

The Hawks are coming off a disappointing 95-102 home loss to the Pistons last night, which I believe will have them extremely motivated to secure a win and move a full 2-games ahead of the Knicks for the 8th and final playoff spot with just 4 games left to play. Keep in mind that prior to losing to Detroit, Atlanta had won each of their previous two games by 19-points.

Boston has nothing to play for and are a dismal 1-13 over their last 14 games. The Celtics have been especially bad on the road, where they have lost 12 straight and are just 8-30 overall on the season.

The rest factor would appear to heavily favor the Celtics, who come in on a full 3 days rest while the Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. However, history tells us Atlanta is the smart play here. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset loss as a favorite and playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 66-39 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons!

Alex Smart

Pirates vs. Cubs
Play: Over 9½

Rodriguez hasn't won since May 26, but his season debut against the Cubs last week was decent, despite of still recovering from a forearm injury. He allowed three runs on five hits over six innings in his first MLB appearance since June 5. The southpaw owns a 9-8 record along with a 3.63 ERA in 25 career starts against the Cubs, but a sub par 3-5 record along with a bloated 4.70 ERA in 13 outings at Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Hammel his pitching opponent, despite of pitching decently in his debut against Rodriquez and the Pirates last week, is just an average pitcher, with some below average numbers tied in. He owns a lifetime 50-59 W/L record along with a hefty 4.78 ERA and could easily be skinned in this spot. With the hitters now getting their second look and chance with these pitchers on the hill Im betting both offenses put up some better numbers, than in the first meeting. Look for this to translate into a OVER.

Key Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 5-0 in Rodriguezs last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 8-2 in Rodriguezs last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Alex Smart's Featured Package

Sam Martin

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets

Solid line value backing the Mets tonight as an underdog behind Zach Wheeler, who has done very well against the Braves in his career going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA (all three career starts came last year). Even better, all three of those games saw Wheeler and the Mets as underdogs, and the lone time he pitched here in Atlanta he tossed six shutout innings.

Tonight Wheeler will face a Braves offense that hasn't yet warmed up, hitting just .220 as a team and being held to 1 or 0 runs in four of their seven games so far this season. Atlanta starter Ervin Santana hasn't made a start yet this year and we feel much more comfortable backing a pitcher with a start already under his belt. Great spot to back an underdog!