Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 11

Jim Feist

Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings
Pick: Utah Jazz

Your free pick for Wednesday, December 11th, 2013 2013, comes in the NBA as Jazz and the Kings meet in Sacramento. Home court hasn't meant much when these teams meet as the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Utah is off a big loss at home but the Jazz is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. Sacramento is an erratic team, 4-9 at home, weak on offense and defense. The Kings are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. And when they meet the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Rob Vinciletti

Mavericks vs. Warriors
Play: Under 209½

Totals appears a bit too high in this game and we have a totals system that has won 14 of 16 times the past 18 seasons. we want to play the under for non divisional rested home favorites with a total; that is 190 to 220 and comes in off a road favored ats loss while scoring 90 or more points, like Golden St, vs an opponent like Dallas off a spread loss as a road favorite. The Warriors have stayed under in 6 of 8 vs winning teams and 6 of 7 vs South West Division teams. Look for this one to go under tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Ray Monohan

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -5½

The Warriors will be mighty happy to get started on an extended run at home where they play so much better - its almost night and day. Adding to their excitement is a chance to crank up the tempo against an older Mavericks team without great perimeter defensive options against their top scorers Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. Those two will combine for 50 or more on their way to a double digit victory. Also look at the over. There is nice value there, especially looking at historical trends for these two clubs.

Carlos Salazar

Mavericks vs. Warriors
Play: Over 208½

There's going to be lots of scoring in this game tonight between Dallas and Golden St. Both teams are averaging 103 points per game and will be putting the ball up early and often in the shot clock. Bet the over with confidence tonight.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

Rickie Robbins

Los Angeles Kings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Los Angeles Kings -139

Although Toronto has had two days of rest, there has been a lot of distraction in Leaf Nation regarding a questionable hit by Leaf's captain Dion Phaneuf in Sunday's tilt versus the Leafs. It was announced early on Tuesday that the captain received a two game suspension.

The Maple Leafs have already seen their fair share of struggles in the defensive end over the past couple of weeks, and losing their Captain/Top defenseman will be devastating. Toronto looks like a discombobulated team overall at the moment, and facing the Kings will be no easier than their last task against Boston (which they lost 5-2), as both opponents play a similar brand of hockey.

The Kings are coming into game two of a back to back, but they had a relatively easy game last night in Montreal. LA defeated the Canadiens 6-0 on Tuesday night, and were hardly tested , but still stood their ground strong, and will be carrying the same foundation that has allowed the team to win four straight games and not give up a goal in over 120 minutes. The West > East effect might be displaying itself at the moment.

Essentially, this is the battle of Structure VS Non Structure, and there isn't any reason to believe that Toronto will have an edge in any department in this one.

EZWINNERS

New Mexico State +14.5

I like this spot for New Mexico State tonight as this is a "look ahead" spot for Arizona. The Wildcats are riding high with the programs first number on ranking since March of 2003. They over came a poor shooting game to knock off UNLV 63-58 on Saturday. Arizona has a huge test coming up on Saturday as they travel to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. New Mexico State comes into this game with a 7-4 record but have dropped three straight games including their last one at then #19 ranked Gonzaga 80-68. That being said this Aggies team is talented and was the pre-season pick by many to win the WAC. I like New Mexico State to keep this one within the number against an Arizona team that has a much bigger game on deck this weekend. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
PLAY: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +6

If there’s an obvious spot on the Wednesday night NBA slate, it has to be the Thunder-Grizzlies game, right? Playoff revenge for the powerful Thunder, and they’re facing a struggling Memphis squad that is shorthanded and also burning up its backers money on a pretty regular basis.

I won’t pretend that things look rosy for the Grizzlies right now. The absence of Marc Gasol is significant, and I’m sure the Thunder would like to deliver a little message to their tormentors from last spring. But it’s also a fact that the guys who set the numbers are well aware of all this, and they’ve adjusted the line accordingly.

In the playoffs last spring, Memphis was favored by 5 and 5.5 in its two home games against Oklahoma City. Tonight, the Grizzlies are a six-point underdog. True enough, the Thunder were without Russell Westbrook in those games and the Grizzlies are missing at least one key element and maybe more tonight.

Nevertheless, I see this line as being overadjusted and it needs to also be pointed out that the Thunder are 0-2 this season playing the second of back to backs. That’s a miniscule sample to be sure, and Oklahoma City was okay in this scenario last season.

My tendency is to try and find a reason to play the side nobody wants in these crystal clear situations. In this instance, it’s the number and the belief that the Grizzlies will go as hard as they can tonight in a game they’re going to want as well. I don’t think Memphis will just roll over, and I expect a close game. Mark me down for the Grizzlies plus the points tonight.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Clippers -6

Clippers head coach Doc Rivers will be making his first appearance as the opposing coach of the Celtics since he left Boston in the offseason. I believe this game means more to Rivers than it does the Celtics. Only six of the players who are currently suiting up for Boston played under Rivers last year. The Celtics didn't exactly step up their game last night in Brooklyn when they faced former teammates Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.

Three of the Celtics key players this year did play under Rivers last year in Avery Bradley, Jeff Green and Jordan Crawford. What I really like here is Rivers knows these players strengths and weaknesses and will have his new team ready to exploit those weaknesses.

Another key factor here is that we know the Clippers players are going to show up and lay it all on the line for their new head coach against his former team. When Los Angeles decides it's time to play they normally win and win convincingly against inferior teams. Los Angeles is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while the Celtics are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning percentage of 60% or better.

Jimmy Boyd

Minnesota Timberwolves -12

This should be a very lopsided game in Minnesota's favor. The Philadelphia 76ers come into this game having dropped eight consecutive road games, and it seems likely they will be without point guard Michael Carter-Williams tonight. The Timberwolves will be hungry for a win since this is their only home game out of their next four contests. The rest profiles also favor the Timberwolves. This is just their fourth game in the month of December, while Philadelphia will be playing their sixth game during that span.

The 76ers are 13-24 ATS when facing a non-conference opponent. They have lost seven consecutive games against the spread. Minnesota has performed well against Atlantic division teams posting a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against bad teams that are winning less than 40% of their games on the season. Minnesota's offense has been hard to stop at home scoring 106 points per game, and they should win this game in a blowout against a 76ers team allowing 111.7 points per game on the road.

Wunderdog

Buffalo vs. Canisius
Pick: Buffalo -3.5

This game creates somewhat of a regional rivalry as these upstate New York schools are not separated by a great distance. The Golden Griffins have a lot of work to do despite a cherry-picked 5-3 record, they lost by 14 to Metro State an inexcusable loss. The Bulls have started to play better after dropping a pair to start the season, and have taken each of their last four. Javon McCrea is an emerging star in Buffalo as he has averaged just shy of a double-double with 16 points per game and over 9 boards a contest. He will be the featured focal point here vs. Canisius who has shown weakness in the interior. The Bulls have rallied to the cause against a winning team where they stand at a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven when facing one. On the other hand, the Golden Griffins have failed to cover in any of their last four vs. a winning squad. Take Buffalo in this one.

Bryan Power

Dallas vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State

The Warriors lost Monday night in Charlotte, 115-111. But don't be surprised to see this team go on a little bit of a run now that five of their next six games played will be at home where they are 6-2 SU this season. It's shocking to me that if the playoffs were to start today that Golden State wouldn't be in them! That speaks to how strong the Western Conference is right now, but it also has a lot to do with the fact that 14 of the team's first 22 games have been played on the road. Here at home, they are averaging 106 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of nearly eight points/game.

Dallas lost Monday in Sacramento, 112-97, which is a bad loss as the Mavs continue to struggle away from home. They're just 4-7 SU on the road this season and while they previously had won in New Orleans and Portland, those victories came by a combined five points. This is now their fourth road game in seven days. Making the loss to Sacramento even more embarrassing is the fact the Kings were short-handed because of the Rudy Gay trade.

Brandon Shively

North Dakota St vs. Notre Dame
Play: Over 148½

I have been high on this North Dakota State since the beginning of the season. They return all 5 starters from last year's 24-10 team, and all 5 starters can score. They are shooting 50% from the floor as a team and a solid 76% from the foul line. Taylor Braun is a scorer that will lead the team in scoring almost every night. The guy is a solid 41% 3 point shooter and has almost a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. I like this North Dakota State team to be able to run with Notre Dame tonight and put up 77-82 points. They have a sharpshooter coming off the bench in Mike Felt who can stroke it from downtown and get some garbage 3's down the stretch if needed be. While I feel the Bisons will be competitive tonight, they still don't play defense as opponents are shooting 47% from the floor against them on the year, including 33% from behind the arch. That will fit in well with a Notre Dame that is shooting a lights-out, 41% from behind the arch. Point Guard Eric Atkins is senior who has a 5:1 assist to turnover ratio on the season. This guy can dish the rock and Notre Dame has a diaper dandy in Demetrius Jackson that is backing up Atkins. All 5 Notre Dame starters can score. What I like is their also is their 'big's' can rebound, but more importantly can shoot free throws. In a game that will have a fast pace and more than likely see a a lot of fouls down the stretch, free throw shooting is crucial. Don't be surprised if North Dakota State has a lead going into halftime in this game. I expect them to put up around 40 first half points. Notre Dame has too many shooters on the perimeter and they will more than likely pull away at the end. Look for a final score in the 91-82 range tonight. Play this game OVER the Total.

Trends:

OVER is 7-0 in North Dakota State's last 7 overall.
OVER is 6-0 in North Dakota State's last 6 road games.
OVER is 5-1 in North Dakota State's last 6 Wednesday games.
OVER is 7-1 in Notre Dame's last 8 games following a SU win.
OVER is 8-3 in Notre Dame's last 11 games overall.
Play on: North Dakota State/ Notre Dame OVER the TOTAL

Chicago vs New York
Play: Under 183½

The Bulls come into this game banged up. Of course Derrick Rose is gone for the season, but the loss of Jimmy Butler has been huge also. Deng has been asked to carry the load now and he did not play last night and is listed as questionable for this game, along with Noah. The perimeter shooting is lacking where they are only shooting 30% from the 3 point line on the road and the bench is practically non-existent chipping in with only 22 ppg. These two teams met earlier this year and we saw the Bulls come away with a 82-81 win as the 163 total points went UNDER the posted total of 188 easily. Rose and Butler accounted for 35% of those points. With them out tonight, I do not think that the Bulls will score over 84-86 points. For the Knicks, point guard Raymond Felton is expected to miss this game and with both teams playing on a back-to-back, I do not see either team pushing the pace tonight. Also consider that both teams are banged up and scoring will be hard to come by, especially in the 4th quarter in a tight game. Look for both defenses to step up the intensity and this game to finish in the 174-177 point range.

Trends:

UNDER is 9-1 in Knicks last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
UNDER is 14-6-1 in Knicks last 21 vs. NBA Central.
UNDER is 16-6 in Bulls last 22 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
UNDER is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

SPORTS WAGERS

Orlando +6 over CHARLOTTE

This is really a case of buying low and selling high. The Bobcats have won two in a row and they’re now just a game under .500. One of those two wins came against the Warriors but we can assure you that the Warriors pulled a no-show in the first half. They were brutal. We pointed out earlier this week the Bobcats have played the second easiest schedule in the Association. Despite that, this Charlotte team ranks last or near last in every offensive category. This is a poor shooting team spotting points with the worst points per possession ranking in the NBA. The ‘Cats are also without Michael-Kidd Gilchrist for 4-6 weeks because of a broken hand.

Orlando’s stock seemed to hit rock bottom when they were buried last week by 39 points by the New York Knicks. The Magic subsequently lost two more games after that and their losing streak has now hit six games. Orlando has lost 10 of its last 12 but had much more life in them in their last two against Houston and Memphis and this is a winnable game. The Magic conclude a six-game trip here and it wouldn’t feel so good returning home winless. The Magic figure to leave nothing on the table here in an attempt to avoid that. Remember, the Magic looked really good at the start of the season but a difficult schedule has contributed to their rough stretch. That said, Arron Afflalo is playing great. Afflalo dropped a career-high 43 points in a double-overtime loss to the Sixers and is averaging a career-best 22.1 points while shooting 44.3 percent from three-point range. He's also capable of defending shooting guards and small forwards. In Memphis on Sunday, the Magic were an 8½-point pooch. Because their stock is so low, they are now just 2½-points less in Charlotte and that allows us a great opportunity to buy an inflated number.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles -½ +122 over TORONTO

Regulation only. There are elite teams in this league like the Sharks, Blackhawks, Blues and to a lesser degree the Bruins and Penguins that all are extremely strong in certain areas but that all have some flaws as well. The Los Angeles Kings are also an elite team but unlike the others, you would be hard-pressed to find a single flaw on them. The Kings have elite talent up front with enough point producers and goal scorers to go all the way. Defensively, they are near impossible to play against and sustain pressure in their end for prolonged periods of time. They are also a relentless fore-checking group that seldom lets up. At home, the Kings are 10-4-2 and on the road they are 10-3-2. The Kings have also won four in a row while outscoring that group 15-4. The Kings are 11-1-4 in their most recent 16 games. They have outscored their foes 41-20 and have not allowed a single first-period goal in that span or more than two goals in any of those games. Prior to last night they had not won in Montreal since 1999. Last night the Kings looked like a herd of 5-year-olds had been let loose with felt markers and they buried the hottest team in the NHL, 6-0.

Since 2008, the Kings have played in Toronto one time, meaning many of their players have never played here and certainly not since they’ve been elite. Toronto is hockey’s hotbed and these players have been looking forward to this trip to Montreal and Toronto since the schedule was released. There is no chance of the Kings being flat tonight. Ben Scrivens was never given a chance in Toronto under Ron Wilson and it’s no coincidence that he sat out last night to play in this one. If the Kings feel a debt to Scrivens for the way he’s played since Quick was injured (Scrivens leads the NHL with a .945 save percentage), they will pay it off here because they know how badly Scrivens wants this one. The Los Angeles Kings are a powerhouse.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have more wins than half the teams in the East but come playoff time, check near the bottom because that’s where Toronto will be. Over their last four games, the Leafs have been outshot 180-109. The Leafs have won two of their past eight games and in those two victories they were outshot 100-55 by Dallas and Ottawa. Realistically, Toronto should be on an eight-game losing streak. Recently, the Leafs have lost twice to the Sabres and once to the Jackets by a score of 6-0. There are 411 players in the NHL that get regular ice time. From numbers 387 to 411, the Leafs have seven forwards ranked in that bottom range as having the most time spent in their own zone. In other words, 40% of the forwards, and that includes Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk, are huge defensive liabilities that spend most of their ice time in their own end. That doesn’t include Mason Raymond, who is ranked 371 on that list. Outside of goaltending, the Leafs are the NHL’s worst team and that’s not an opinion. This is equivalent to the Denver Broncos playing a game they want against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. It’s not fair.