LT Profits
Oklahoma City vs Memphis
Pick: Under 192
The Oklahoma City Thunder seek revenge facing the Memphis Grizzlies for the first time since losing to them in the NBA Playoffs while Russell Westbrook was out. The Thunder may get that revenge with Westbrook, but we expect a relatively low scoring game. The Grizzlies have only reached 100 points twice in the last nine games and they are ranked 25th in the NBA in scoring at 93.2 points per game but sixth in points against at 96.0. Part of the reason is the Memphis pace, as it ranks second to last in tempo rating. Look for the Grizzlies to slow the pace at every opportunity as they do not want to get in a track meet with Durant & Co. Also, even the Thunder have allowed less than 100 points in four of their last five games. The ‘under’ is 16-4-1 in the Thunder’s last 21 games vs. the Southwest Division.
Canisius vs Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -1.5
The Buffalo Bulls have won four straight games since an 0-2 start, keyed by a defense holding opponents to a 47.6 percent effective field goal percentage and very good offensive rebounding more than compensating for just a 46.2 eFG% on offense. The Bulls have an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.1 percent, well above the national average of 31.9 percent, and they should dominate in that department tonight. That is because the Canisius Golden Griffiths have done a terrible job of keep opponents off of the glass, ranking 341st out of 351 Division I teams in defensive rebounding percentage. Canisius comes off of two conference wins inside the weak MAAC, and the last time the Griffiths played out of conference they were embarrassed by 14 points 83-69 by a Division II school in Metro State on a neutral court! Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams with winning records.
River City Sharps
Ohio St -18.5
We think this is going to be a breakout game for Ohio State as they continue to struggle in putting 40 minutes together. Ohio State has been really good defensively, allowing an average of 54.5 ppg, which is third nationally. They are also holding opponents to 37.1% from the field and 22.0% from 3-point range. The Buckeyes are shooting 58.1% in the past three games while averaging 83 ppg, compared to 69.6 ppg in the first five games. Bryant won't be taken lightly by the Buckeyes and Matta has been heard saying that he needs his squad to give him a solid 40 minutes. That happens tonight!
Doug Upstone
Princeton vs. Rutgers
Play: Princeton -3
On Wednesday, Play Against home teams as an underdog or pick like Rutgers, off an upset loss as a home favorite, against opponent (Princeton) off a home win by 10 points or more. The thought process here is if a team fails to win as home favorite and is placed in the underdog role against a road favorite, they could be in trouble. In the past five years this college hoops systems is a rock solid 49-21.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -6
It's payback time for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They will be hungry for revenge against a Memphis Grizzlies team that knocked them out of the playoffs in five games this past spring, but the difference this time is that they will be the healthier team.
I like their chances at getting revenge with Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. Westbrook missed the entire Memphis series in May, but he's back and better than ever this season. He has helped lead the Thunder to 11 wins in their last 12 games overall with their only loss coming at Portland. That includes victories over the Clippers, Spurs, Warriors and Pacers along the way.
Memphis is the team that has been decimated by injuries this year. It remains without Marc Gasol (knee) and Quincy Pondexter (foot). Ed Davis (ankle) is questionable to play tonight, while defensive stopper Tony Allen (hip) is doubtful. Not having Allen would be huge because he would be the one to match up with Kevin Durant.
Oklahoma City is 39-21 ATS in its last 60 games after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games coming in. The Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last nine after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on 0 days rest. Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 home games. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
New Mexico State +15
Arizona is being overvalued because of its No. 1 ranking. Plus, this is a look-ahead spot for the Wildcats who have a tough game on deck at Michigan. Playing against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are undefeated are have won at least eight in a row has resulted in a 62-29 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Zona is also on a 2-10 ATS slide in home games after 9 or more consecutive wins, and the Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Bet New Mexico State.
Dave Price
Oklahoma City Thunder -6
Memphis is struggling, but it won't be shown any mercy by an Oklahoma City squad that it knocked out of last season's playoffs. The Thunder likely wouldn't have lost the series had Russell Westbrook not gone down with an injury, and they will be out to prove it tonight. Oklahoma City also catches a Memphis team that isn't near full strength. Marc Gasol is out with a sprained MCL and Quincy Pondexter is out with a stress fracture in his right foot. Tony Allen is doubtful with a hip injury and Ed Davis is questionable with an ankle injury. You want to fade home underdogs that led by 15 points or more at halftime of their last game if they are matched up against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games if they are matched up against a team that has covered the number in three of its last four games. Doing so has produced a 68-33 ATS mark the last five seasons. Lay the points.
Red Dog Sports
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Over 196½
Doc Rivers returns to face the Boston Celtics with his new team, the LA Clippers. Led by PG Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Clippers have a solid offense but are just average on defense. I look for the visitors to make a statement and put up over 100 points. The Celtics have been a surprise with Brad Stevens as their coach. They just played last night and could have tired legs on defense. Let's hope the home team can add to the total and help this one go over.
Tom Barton
Princeton vs Rutgers
Pick: Princeton -3
The Tigers are the better team and have started this year on fire while Rutgers has the benefit of a tough home court it won't be enough tonight. The Tigers come in at 6-1 with their sole loss being against Butler on the road and have won not only with their signature style of defense but this year their offense is doing well also. Princeton has put up 66 or more in every game while getting into the 70's in 4 of their 6 games. The Princeton D is always tough and has stepped it up in the last few games and now take on a Rutgers team that has been up and down all season. The Knights have lost 4 of their last 5 games and the competition is not exactly powerhouses. I'll take the better team and the small number here as I expect the Pricenton defense to frustrate this Rutgers squad while the Tigers new found offense should have a field day against a team that has allowed 70 + in each of their last 5 games, including 89 and 93.
John Ryan
San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
The simulator shows a high probability that the Bucks will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. I actually like making a 5* play on the first half line as well. Supporting this first half play is a proven system posting a 33-8 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1996. Play on home underdogs of 6 or more points using the first half line (MILWAUKEE) and is a struggling team winning <=25% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record, with this game taking place in the first half of the season. Take Milwaukee.
Bruce Marshall
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors
Payback time for Golden State bunch that lost by 4 in Big D on Nov. 27, when Warriors were at mostly full-strength with the exception of still-hurting Andre Iguodola (hamstring). Warriors got only 13 points from their bench that night, a familiar lament for Mark Jackson in many of the Golden State losses this season. But with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, Warriors can always shoot their way out of any trouble, and Golden State's NBA-best 44% beyond arc suggests they have resources that other teams don't own.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on Princeton laying the points at Rutgers, as the Tigers' defense looks awfully stringent this season, and should be able to contain the Scarlet Knights. Tonight will mark the 120th edition of this rivalry, and after what I see the Tigers did their last time out, I think they'll be riled up for this annual event.
Princeton comes in after its largest win of the season, as it was able to pull away from Fairleigh Dickinson late in the first half, building as much as a 26-point lead en route to a 77-55 victory. Spencer Weisz, who isn't even a regular starter for Princeton, registered his first-ever double-double (17 pts., 10 reb.) as a Tiger. Making his first start of the season Denton Koon led Princeton with 18 points. The honorable mention all-Ivy League preseason choice ranks second on the team with an average of 12.1 points per game, but is easily the culprit who can take any game over. To wit: off the bench, he led the team in scoring in each of the first two games.
While Koon is my X-factor in this one, let's talk about that defense, which held FDU to 29.6 percent shooting after intermission after the Knights shot 45.8 percent in the first half. The visiting team has won the last two in the series, so there should be a bit of confidence brewing from the carry overs on this team, who played here a couple years back.
Nonetheless, the rivalry alone is big enough to motivate the much-better Tigers, as Princeton and Rutgers are just 23 miles apart, from one's home floor to the other's. The Tigers are on a 5-1 ATS run in non-conference play, while Rutgers comes in having failed to cover four of its last five at home. The road team has covered six of the last seven meetings, while Princeton is on a 4-1 ATS run at Rutgers.
Lay the road chalk here.
4♦ PRINCETON
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Thunder in revenge over the Grizzlies.
Last season, Memphis made quick work of Oklahoma City in the Western Conference playoffs, dispatching the Westbrook-less Thunder in 5 games.
Time for a little payback, as it is clear this is NOT the same Memphis team as last season, and their 10-10 mark shows a team that is struggling to find an identity under their new head coach. The Grizzlies are also struggling without their big man Marc Gasol patrolling the middle.
Memphis has lost 6 of their last 8 games at home, and I don't see it getting better tonight against an OKC team that is fresh off a road win and cover at Atlanta last night, as the Thunder have now won 3 straight and 11 of their last 12 straight up, and they have also gone 7-2 against the spread their last 9 when installed as the favorite.
Revenge tonight, as Oklahoma City pounds the floundering Grizzlies in Memphis.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the OKC Thunder to keep rolling as they play on back-to-back nights, having played at Atlanta last night.
They travel from Atlanta to Memphis for a western conference showdown with the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.
But let's keep one thing in mind -- the Grizzlies aren't the same team as a year ago and I don't believe they have enough firepower (yet) to take down one of the best teams in the league.
Memphis is missing Marc Gasol from tonight's game and there are some other injuries along Memphis's front line. If you'll remember back with me... the Grizzlies beat the Thunder (with Westbrook) last season in five games of the second round because OKC simply couldn't check the Memphis big men inside.
Teams that are going to beat OKC are going to be teams with absolute studs in the paint. The Clippers. San Antonio. Houston. Portland. Memphis? Well, not if they don't have Gasol and Z-bo isn't 100%.
That's why the Thunder completely dominated Indiana the other night... and the Pacers never once had the lead in that game. It was the best overall game I've seen them play... EVER.
Even playing poorly last night, the Thunder were able to garner a much-needed 101-92 road win against a pretty good team.
Take Oklahoma City minus the small number as your free play of the day.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is in the NBA, where I think the Over in the Warriors/Mavericks game in Oakland is a value play. These two tend to have some wild ones, and tonight should be no different.
If you look back at some of the more recent matchups - including Nov. 27 - the last three meetings have stayed under. But in the last seven meetings, at least one team has scored triple figures in the game.
Dallas will be playing its fourth straight road game, spanning the past eight days. That's not as bad as it sounds since the Mavs have had time to rest during this trip. They should be fine for a run-and-gun tempo tonight against a Warriors team that is averaging 103 points per game on the year, and a bit more - 106 to be exact - in Oakland.
The over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings in Oaktown, and I'm betting on this one to go high as well.
5♦ Warriors/Mavericks Over
Brad Wilton
Homecoming for long-time Boston coach Doc Rivers, as he will patrol the parquet floor once again, this time from the visitors bench.
I expect the Clippers to give an added effort for their current coach tonight, and with Boston just a shell of the former team that Rivers coached, look for Los Angeles to roll to the road win and cover tonight.
Boston was blasted at Brooklyn last night, snapping a 3 game winning streak for the C's, while the Clippers had the night off before resuming their 7 game road swing that has seen them gain some wind in their sails, winning 2 of their last 3 on the road both straight up and against the spread.
True, Los Angeles has a date with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce in Brooklyn tomorrow night, but I do not think their will be a loss of focus on what should be a special night for Rivers when he steps on that hardwood tonight.
Clippers take care of business in this one.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS