Freddy Wills
Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat
This is the 5th road game in 8 days for the Warriors and they have won all of them and scored over 100 points in each, but now it's time for them to come down to earth. The Heat have no look aheads and seem to be focused right now especially defensively. The Warriors beat bad teams with a combined record of 28-54 and now the public is liking them too to the tune of 60+% and I still see this line climbing. Heat on 1 day of rest will blow them out.
Teddy Covers
Memphis vs. Phoenix
Pick: Memphis
The Suns have lost seven straight games. At 6-15-1 ATS, they rank dead last in the NBA in profitability; overvalued from Day 1 by the betting markets. Veteran wing Jared Dudley: "We just have to find our identity."
Suns head coach Alvin Gentry: "We play good for two minutes then we're bad for seven, then we're good for five and we're bad for three. ... You just can't win any basketball games in this league when you play that way."
This pointspread stat is very telling. The Suns are 2-10 ATS facing an opponent that is coming off a loss, like the Grizzlies are tonight. What does that mean? Simple -- when the opposing team is focused, the Suns can't hang, struggling to compete. Against a team like Memphis that enjoys a major matchup edge in the low post, those problems become magnified.
Memphis was flat and tired after a grueling scheduling stretch when they lost at home by double digits to Atlanta last weekend. They've had three full days off; a chance to rest, recuperate and re-focus. And the Grizzlies have won five of their seven previous road games by seven points or more. The only two road games they didn't win by margin? At the Clippers and at the Spurs; two teams that are one heck of alot better than the Suns this year. Take Memphis.
Larry Ness
New Orleans vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 17-4, just a half-game back of the Spurs for the NBA’s best record. The dynamic duo of Durant (27.0-8.5-4.3) and Westbrook (21.5-4.8-8.5) is now joined off the bench by Martin, who has seamlessly stepped into Harden’s role, averaging 15.8 PPG on 47.1 percent shooting (47.9 percent on threes). No team can get up and down the floor any better, as the Thunder lead the NBA in scoring at 106.0 PPG, on 49.1 percent shooting (2nd), 41.8 percent on threes (2nd) plus own the league’s best free throw percentage (83.1). OKC owns the league’s longest active winning streak at eight in a row, averaging 111.4 PPG since their last defeat. What’s more, the Thunder have topped 100 points in 12 straight games, also averaging 111.4 PPG in that stretch and at home this season, are 11-2 while averaging 108.5 PPG. The Thunder have been controlling the flow of all their games as of late and just why would the Hornets be able to do anything to stop that here? Anthony Davis did return to the court last night, playing 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 13 points with eight rebounds, after missing 11 straight games. He’s the real deal when he plays (15.6-8.3) and he’ll see more time tonight. The Hornets were pathetic last night, losing at home to the Wizards, 77-70 while shooting 32.5% (4-16 on threes). Note that the Hornets are allowing 103.9 PPG on the road, certainly bad news when facing OKC. The Thunder are winning by an average of 16.3 PPG during their eight-game streak (three wins by 21 or more points) and have defeated the Hornets six straight times, including wins by 15 (110-95) and 21 points (100-79) this season. Nothing changes here with margin of victory.
King Creole
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS plus the pts vs Indiana Pacers
DENVER NUGGETS plus the pts vs Minnesota Timberwolves
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES minus the pts vs Phoenix Suns / #723 / 9:05pm ET
RIDING a couple of UNRESTED road teams tonight? You betcha! We'll grab the points with two road doggies who just won last night (in Cleveland and Denver). They'll be taking on respective division opponents in Indiana and Minnesota. And we will be playing on a situation that's hit at a 89% percentage this season.
NBA division road underdogs (CAVS / NUGGETS) have goNE 13-3 ATS so far this season when playing with NO REST. And these teams have gone 8-1 ATS if they won their game that was played the previous night. In Cleveland's case, they shocked the LA Lakers last night, winning by 6 points as 6-point home doggies. And in Denver's case, they won on the road last night, beating the putrid Detroit Pistons 101 to 94.
We also queried Cleveland's non-conference shocker over the Lakers.
Since the 2004 season, NBA underdogs of > 3 and pts in a game in which they were a DOG of +6 > pts.
CLEVELAND has gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in the last 3 seasons as road dogs with NO REST off playing off a SU underdogs win. Meanwhile, the PACERS (on a 2-game losing streak) are 3-12 ATS as home vs UNRESTED opponents... including 0-6 ATS if that opponent is off a SU win.
In the Minnesota / Denver game, the T'Wolves SEEM to have a definite REST advantage of FOUR days to NONE (for Denver). But according to the database, the advantage is for the unrested team.
2-13 ATS since 2005: All DIVISION home teams (T'Wolves) playing with FOUR days of rest. These teams have gone 1-7 ATS as favs of < 7 pts when playing an UNRESTED opponent (DENVER).
So far this season, WEDNESDAY division home favorites (Min / Indy) have gone 1-7 ATS...
The NUGGETS are already 5-1 ATS this season on the road with no rest. Also 7-0 ATS in the last 3 years as short dogs of 5 pts.
In the late game, the GRIZZ look to continue their dominance of the Suns... with SU wins of 10 and 11 points in the last two games of this series. After their most recent shocking home loss to Atlanta, Memphis is looking for a whippin' boy... and they get it tonight.
So the road fav is off a SU loss while the home dog is off a TON of losses in a row (Phoenix is 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7).
16-5 ATS since 2005: All Western Conference road favs of > 4 pts (GRIZZ) vs any fellow Conference opponent off 3 or more SU losses in a row (Phoe). In the last 2 seasons, these teams are 7-1 ATS when favored by MORE than 5 pts (GRIZZ).
Let's extend that 'losing streak query'...
NBA home teams playing off 7 > SU losses in a row (Phoe) have gone 10-24 ATS in the last 4 seasons vs fellow conference opponents... including 2-11 ATS when playing with 2 or less day rest (Phoe).
The Grizzlies play this one with 3 days of rest while the host Suns off 2 days of rest.
Already this season, NBA road teams with 3+ days rest (GRIZZ) are a PERFECT 5-0 ATs vs any opponent odd 2 days of rest (Phoe).
Andre Gomes
Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5
Projected Line: Minnesota by 7 points
Denver is coming from a win at Detroit yesterday, where they started the game terribly and so, they were quickly down by 17 points. Fortunately for the Nuggets, Detroit was on a bad spot and with a poor bench, Denver was able to turn around the game. Detroit showed once again that they struggled in defending the opposing guards, so Ty Lawson had 9-17 FG and 7 assists. With that, the Nuggets had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and cuts. Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari struggled on their outside shooting, but Corey Brewer compensated that with 6-11 FG and 3-5 3pts. Detroit won the boards battle and Brandon Knight had a nice game, but Greg Monroe struggled badly with 1-9 FG and 5 turnovers. Detroit struggled in attacking Denver's bad transition defense, a sign of lack of energy and with a lot of turnovers and with Greg Monroe struggling, they had no chances.
For today, the Nuggets have a very tough spot that normally results in no-shows: three games in four days, with this game being also a back to back, with all three games being played on the road. This is also a final game of a road trip and they will face the Grizzlies at home next Friday. Denver has been rebounding terribly on this road trip and the truth is that they grabbed just 44.31%, 49.13%, 44.52% and 42.05% of the rebounds on their last four games.
On the other hand, Minnesota had three days of rest for this contest, so they have an excellent spot for today. On the previous game between these two teams, Denver won with a comeback win on the 2nd half, on the first game that Kevin Love played this season. He crushed Denver on the first half, but then had no legs to repeat the same feat on the second half. Minnesota with Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko should be able to take advantage of Denver's rebounding problems, besides the fact that the Wolves have a great rim defense and they will be able to limit Denver's offense that likes to attack the rim and with them struggling at the rim and being forced to try jump shots on a poor spot, this won't go well for them tonight.
Minnesota is also #3 on transition defense, therefore the Wolves have the spot and the matchup to have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Phoenix/ Memphis Under 195: These are not your normal Phoenix Suns that continuously have averaged well over 100 ppg. No this teams is having some really scoring problems this year, especially lately. The Suns come in averaging 97.8 ppg overall, but in their last 8 games they have put up just 93.1 ppg. That stretch has included 2 home games in which they put up just 188 total points. That scoring doesn't look to get any better tonight vs a Memphis team that has allowed just 91.2 ppg on the year. The Suns defense is weak as always, but they are not going up against a team that scores a ton or pushes tempo. Overall Memphis averages 98.2 ppg and 99.4 ppg on the road, but they have struggled at that end of the floor of late, averaging just 91.3 ppg (Regulation Only) in their last 7 games. These teams met a few games ago and 206 points were scored, but just 192 in regulation and their 3 games last year averaged just 185.3 ppg. Two struggling offense and one team that is exceptional on defense should keep this game in the 180's at best.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Golden State/ Miami Over 204.5: This game has the feeling of a shootout. Miami is not the same team as last year, but they still know how to score at home, putting up 108.6 ppg on their home floor. Overall offense has not been a problem for the Heat this year, but their defense has been real inconsistent. Miami has allowed 99.6 ppg overall, including 100.3 ppg in their last 8 games, plus they have allowed 99.3 pg at home. Not very Miami like defensive numbers and they don't appear to get much better tonight vs a GS squad that has scored 100+ points in 6 of their last 7 games, averaging 103 ppg over that stretch. The Warriors do average 99.9 pg on the road, and vs this Miami defense they should be good for another 100+ performance in this one. The Warriors defense is not all that good, especially on the road where they have allowed 100.3 ppg. Should be a fast paced game with at least 201 points being scored.
Atlanta -4.5 over ORLANDO: Tough scheduling spot for the Magic as they are off a long west coast road trip and team in a first game back situation don't really perform that well. What makes matters worse is that they will play an angry Hawks team that suffered a big loss at Miami 2 nights ago. The Hawks have played well on the road as thyey are 5-3 away from home and that includes a 10 point win at Memphis 4 days ago. Orlando has not been all that great at home, going just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS on their home floor. The Orlando offense has struggled this year and Atlanta allows just 91.8 ppg on the road. Atlanta's offense comes in hot, having averaged 101.6 ppg in their last 5 games and should be able to put plenty of points on the board vs an Orlando team that allows 99 ppg at home. I just don't expect a fully focused Orlando team in this one off their long trip, while Atlanta wants to get back after that tough Miami loss. Hawks by at least 9 in this one.
AMAZING TREND OF THE DAY--- The Sixers are 16-0 to the Under since 2000 after beating the Pistons at home. Even more amazing is the fact that this play has gone under by an average of 19.1 ppg.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Green Bay/ Wisconsin Under 128: Last year just 112 points were put up in this game and i have a feeling we will see the same kind of output in this one. The Phoenix come is scoring 68 ppg, but they are not a great shooting team ranking 267th in shooting (40.7%) and 305th in 3pt shooting (28.2%). The are 30th in FT shooting, but Wisconsin doesn't foul all that much as they have committed just 14.5 fouls per game (19th in nation). Year in an year out the Badgers are more known for their defense and this year is no exception. The Badgers rank 26th in defense scoring (57.4 ppg) and 131st in defensive FG% (40.7%). At home is where they really ratchet up the defense. They still allow 57.4 ppg at home, but on a mere 35.3% shooting overall and 27.3% from long range. Not good numbers for a Phoenix team that can't shoot. The Green Bay defense is soft and yes the Badgers average 70+ ppg, but Wisconsin is also a slow down team and would prefer scoring in the 60's at best. Even if the Badgers score 70 points in this one it shouldn't hurt us because I don't expect to get out of the 40's just like last year.
OHIO STATE -23 over Savannah State: Well at 5-4 its obvious that the Tigers BBall team is much better than their football team, but a closer look shows that they haven't played really played anyone year. They did play Florida and lost by just 18, but still this will be their first lined game of the year. There are 347 teams in division 1 basketball and the Tigers rank 343rd in scoring 54.1 pg and 285th in shooting 40.1%, plus 311th from long range (27.6%). Now as I have stated they haven't played a tough schedule, so to put up those weak offensive numbers vs a weak schedule is not good at all. On defense they have allowed just 53 ppg (7th) but again it was vs a weak schedule. The Buckeyes have obviously played the much tougher schedule and they rank in the top 34 in the nation in both scoring (78 ppg) and points allowed (57.1 ppg). At home the Buckeyes have been downright dominant and have no problems running it up vs weak competition. OSU has gone 4-0 at home and have outscored their opponents by 32.2 ppg. Now above I stated how bad a shooting team the Tigers have been, well get this the OSU defense holds teams to a mere 29.5 ppg on their home floor. I just don't see the Tigers putting up nearly enough points to get the cover here as the Buckeyes win this one by 30+.
SPORTS WAGERS
Raps/Nets Under 187
The Raptors not only return home from a horrific five-game West Coast trip but now must play this one without Emir Johnson, who was suspended for his run-in with a ref on Monday in Portland. Teams’ are often lethargic returning home from a trip and even more so when said trip is in a different time zone. Also consider the Raptors recent string of games against offensively minded clubs such as Utah, Sacramento, Denver, Phoenix Houston, San Antonio and Detroit. The pace slows way down here.
The Nets play sound defense and methodical offense. They work the clock and play for a quality shot each time down the floor. Their sixth in the NBA in points allowed while ranking 19th in points scored. They’ve also lost four straight and NBA teams are well aware that snapping out of any funk starts at the defensive end. Toronto’s recent string of high scoring games has this total inflated and one we should be able to capitalize on.
DePaul +5½ over ARIZONA ST.
The Sun Devils are an impressive 8-1 to start the year but one must consider the extremely weak opponents they’ve played before putting too much weight on that record. ASU has not played a true road game all season. They’ve played one quality team, the Creighton Blue Jays and lost by 14. They have not beaten a quality club all year and most recently struggled at home to beat both Hartford and Cal State Northbridge. The Sun Devils weaknesses were exposed by Creighton and will likely be exposed here too.
DePaul is 6-3 and has not had a difficult schedule either. However, they’re coming off back-to-back road wins and a 34-point home win over Milwaukee for its fourth straight victory. DePaul’s overall talent is better than ASU’s and so is its depth. The Blue Demons are gaining steam and they’re moving towards the type of play necessary to win games in the Big East. This is a winnable game for them and one they’re sure to treat as such. Upset possibility.
Jimmy Boyd
Golden State Warriors +8.5
The Heat are getting a little too much respect tonight against a Golden State squad that has been playing exceptional basketball.
The Warriors have won 4 in row, 7 of 8 and 11 of 14. They have gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as they continue to be undervalued by the books.
The defending NBA champs have been overvalued all season as you might expect. They have covered the number in their last 2 but are still only 3-5 ATS in their last 8.
Since Mark Jackson showed up and started preaching defense, the Warriors have been an outstanding investment on the road. In fact, they are 29-15 ATS on the road under Jackson. They have lost these games on average but only by 3.5 points.
The Warriors have played the Heat tough. They won the most recent matchup at home and played Miami to a 7-point game in their last visit. I'll take the red-hot Warriors.
Bruce Marshall
Cavaliers at Pacers
Pick: Under
Interesting dynamics here, with Cleveland emboldened by return of Kyrie Irving to active duty and win over Lakers last night at The Q. But not sure Cavs aren't due for a little letdown tonight at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana has made successful adjustment to absence of Danny Granger (still sidelined with knee problems), mostly due to sticky defense (91.1 ppg and 40.6% FGs allowed both among league leaders). This game is probably played in the mid 80s-to low 90s tonight. Play Cavs-Pacers "Under"
Scott Delaney
I am looking at a game on the West Coast to carry out this free pick run that is now at 51-30-2, as I like the underdog in the Fresno State-Colorado clash in Fresno, California. Call me naive, but the Bulldogs look too tempting against the Colorado in hosting the game.
I know Colorado is off to an impressive 7-2 start to the season, and the Bulldogs are just 5-4, but this would be a milestone win for the Dawgs, as they look to record their 100th win inside the Save Mart Center, an arena they've occupied for 10 years now.
Fresno is 99-49 in its home, and have already scored wins in two of its first three home games this season, including an 84-49 blowout of San Diego Christian last week. They come in after a tough 59-50 road loss to Washington State last Sunday, and can avenge that loss with a win a different Pac 12 foe.
While Colorado has won three games on a neutral floor, the Buffs remain winless in true road dates. They come in after being humiliated by the Kansas Jayhawks in a game Colorado never led and trailed by as many as 42 points. The Buffs shot a meager 37.0 percent from the floor, 2-of-13 beyond the arc and 12-of-21 at the free-throw line as they were trounced, 90-54.
Yes, I know Fresno's offense has been questionable. And I know it's live-by-the-3, die-by-the-three mentality has been suspect. But this is a big night, and this could make for a huge win.
I'm taking the home underdog.
2♦ FRESNO STATE
Chuck O'Brien
With my free pick run at 143-113-3 after hitting the Los Angeles Clippers last night in Chicago, I am playing the Oregon State Beavers on the road against Portland State in college action.
This is the first time in five years that Oregon State (5-2) will play in the Rose City, and I think the Vikings (1-4) are in big trouble. After all, Oregon State has held five of its opponents below 40 percent shooting from the field and is a perfect 5-0 in those games. Oregon State leads the Pac-12 in rebounding with 42.7 per game, which ranks 17th nationally.
Keep an eye on Eric Moreland, who leads the Pac-12 and ranks fifth in the nation with 11.6 rebounds per game. He already has three double-doubles to equal his total from last season. And for head coach Craig Robinson - first lady Michelle Obama's brother - his next win will be the 100th of his head coaching career. He's had 30 at Brown and 69 thus far at Oregon State.
I don't see him having a problem in getting No. 100 tonight, after seeing what his Beavers did to the Vikings last season, in a 101-68 rout. Oregon State hit a season-high 13 three-point field goals, including seven in the second half, and turned a close game into the 33-point thrashing in what was the final non-conference game of the season at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis, Oregon. Just cause this one is in the Vikings' arena, it doesn't scare me one bit.
Lay the road chalk, and look for a 80-63 win.
2♦ OREGON STATE
Jeff Benton
47-35 freebie run.
Tonight's freebie is the Golden State Warriors as they continue their road swing with a stop in South Beach for a date with the Heat.
Mark Jackson's team is rolling a perfect 4-for-4 straight up on this road trek, and while they may see the straight up streak come to a halt, they are definitely getting enough points for an underdog cover versus a Miami team that has gone just 3-5 versus the spread at home this season.
Golden State snapped a six game series losing streak with a win last January at home against Miami, and the Warriors have been the play versus the number in this series of late, toting in a 5-2-1 spread mark the last eight times the teams have clashed.
The Warriors are also 3-0-1 against the line their last four stops in Miami.
Heat generally lay a few points too many on their home floor, and tonight is another one of those nights.
Take the points with the streaking visitor.
3♦ GOLDEN STATE
Matt Rivers
Comp play winners the past two nights on Golden State Monday night, and the Clippers last night.
Tonight's free play is the Atlanta Hawks as the road chalk over the Orlando Magic.
Orlando just concluded a successful five game road trip that saw them win three of the five outright, but it was also a five game swing over eight nights, and I have a strong feeling the Magic will be drained when they take to the hardwood tonight.
Atlanta just lost in Miami on Monday, but the Hawks have still won nine of their last eleven straight up, and they have gone a dominant 7-1 straight up with five straight wins over the Magic. Atlanta is also 12-2 against the spread the past 14 series meetings, covering six of the last seven in Florida.
Orlando has failed their last five when listed as the home underdog, and they are just 3-6 against the spread in their home games this year.
Hawks to dominate the Magic one more time tonight.
5♦ ATLANTA