Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +7
Boston has to be feeling a little bit fat and happy about last night dominant performance. Meanwhile, the Blazers couldn't be hungrier after losing a 4th straight game last night. Seeing Boston overvalued at home in nothing new. As a result, the Celtics are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. It also certainly can't be overlooked that Boston is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Blazers are one of the best teams in the league to back in back-to-backs. In fact, they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games playing on 0 days rest. Take Portland and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Bobcats/Hornets UNDER 187.5
New Orleans is 16-5 UNDER when valued as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is also 8-0 in the Hornets' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Bobcats' last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. In a battle of solid defensive teams, we'll side with the UNDER tonight.
Info Plays
3* FREE PICK: Purdue Boilermakers +1.5
Reason the Boilermakers cover:
1)Purdue is coming off an embarrassing loss to Richmond last Saturday, and I expect them to come out and really play hard. The Boilermakers shot just 30.2% from the field in the loss. Every other game this season Purdue has shot at least 43%, and I look for the shots to fall early and often tonight!
2)The Hokies are just 3-13 ATS in home games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% since 1997.
3)Boilermakers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
Craig Trapp
Purdue vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Purdue +105
This is a great underdog winner here. Usually favor ACC teams over Big Ten teams but not this year. The Big 10 is great this year and PUR is one of top 3 teams in the conference. Love Moore as he can score almost at will against even the best defenders. VT seems to have great talent but can't put consistent play together to be considered a good team. Will take the less talented but better team in Purdue in a straight up underdog win.
Teddy Covers
Butler @ Loyola-Chicago
Pick: Loyola-Chicago +3.5
Here’s what Western Michigan head coach Steve Hawkins said about Loyola-Chicago following the Broncos 18 point home loss to the Ramblers last week: “They’re in midseason form right now. They’re better than us, they’re just flat out better than us right now…. The nine juniors and seniors, they click. And if you get confused at all defensively, they knock down 3s. They don’t just make you pay for it with a layup.”
Last year, Butler went 18-0 in Horizon League play on their way to the national championship game. Arguably, their single toughest test of the entire conference season came right here in Chicago against the Ramblers, as they escaped with a 48-47 victory. Loyola is 7-0 right now, bursting with confidence and primed for a statement game against an opponent that has dominated the league in recent years.
Meanwhile, Butler is going through some growing pains after losing a rare first rounder to the NBA draft. They lost at home in SU fashion as 18 point chalk against Evansville over the weekend, primed for another SU loss in their conference opener here. 2* Take Loyola-Chicago
Ben Burns
Washington @ Toronto
PICK: Toronto -4.5
Both these teams could use a victory. The Raptors have lost two in a row. The Wizards have dropped three straight. The Raptors are playing at home though and they're also playing with 'revenge,' having lost earlier at Washington. That should provide them with an advantage.
The Raptors have been "respectable" at home, going 4-4. They've outscored teams by a modest 98 to 96.5 margin here. The Wizards are winless (0-8) on the road. They've lost those eight games by an average of 16 points each, an average score of 109.5 to 93.5.
With the Raptors at 6-4 ATS their last 10 in the 'revenge' role, consider laying the points.
Sam Martin
N.C. State at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin
We've got two teams here that have had their offensive struggles, but we'll lay the points with confidence as Wisconsin is a notoriously good home team. The Badgers have shot under 40% in three of their last four games - all on the road - while NC State has shot under 40% from the field in back-to-back games. And while we can justify the poor shooting in the loss against Georgetown, we don't like how the Wolfpack couldn't operate on offense in a home game against Farleigh Dickinson in their last outing. Wisconsin is a good defense squad, holding their last three opponents to under 40% shooting, and we think the Badgers can shut down the Wolfpack again here tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +2.00 over ATLANTA
Don’t be fooled by Atlanta’s three game win streak. Before beating the Wizards, Knicks and Raptors, the Hawks were in the middle of a 2-7 stretch that included losses to the Nets and the Bucks at home. New coach Larry Drew made a big deal about his “motion offense” when he was hired but management can’t be happy with the results thus far. Joe Johnson, the Hawks 119 million dollar man, has been horrendous over the first 18 games, averaging a measly 17 points while shooting 40% from the field and 25% from three. Atlanta ranks 16th in points per game and 20th in rebounding, numbers that are actually down from last years Mike Woodson coached team. The giant killers of the NBA are undoubtedly the Memphis Grizzlies. They just beat the Lakers at home, a mightily impressive win considering Los Angeles was on a two game losing streak and playing their absolute hardest to avoid losing three. The Grizzlies got a huge game from Mike Conley to win their biggest game since beating Miami on November 20th, a game that saw Rudy Gay hit a game winning shot at the buzzer. The Grizz started slow last year and did so again this year but are now 4-1 over their last five games. The emotional win over the Lakers should translate into another inspired effort tonight for a team that is really coming on. We have liked Memphis since the beginning of the season and their finally starting to play up to their capabilities. Grizzlies outright. Play: Memphis +2.00 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI –6½ (1H) over Detroit
You’d be flat broke if you’ve been betting the Heat against the spread this season. Miami is an awful 5-13 ATS this year and it’s no surprise why; combine ridiculous expectation with poor play and it spells disaster every time. The Heat looked to be cruising against the Wizards on Monday to finally reward their bettors but unbelievably a useless last second possession led to a basket and cover for the Wizards. We don’t trust anyone on the Heat roster except the Big 3 and that’s why we’re making a play on the first half only. It cuts out the free throws and bench from the game and if we learned anything about this Heat team it’s that it’s going as far as the Big 3 take them. We give the Pistons credit for turning what looked to be a horribly disastrous season into what will most likely be a run of the mill bad season but their still no match for the Heat. Lost in Miami’s struggles is the fact that the Heat still has an amazing point differential with James and Wade both playing at career low levels. This team will eventually come around and the numbers prove it - they rank fourth in the league in defensive efficiency and seventh in offensive efficiency. The Heat will win this game but we don’t want to be on the side of a gut wrenching cover by the Pistons 12th man, therefore we’ll bet the Heat can bury this opponent early. Play: Miami –6½ (1H) (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
DUQUESNE +10½ over Pittsburgh
That 3-1 record that Duquesne has actually means nothing because they’ve beaten up on three dregs but it’s the way in which they’ve won that means something. Duquesne not only won but they buried three teams by 30 points or more and barely broke a sweat in doing so. The Dukes are an outstanding shooting team. No matter whom you play the three-point shot is the same distance and right now the Dukes are hitting about 11 triples a game. What’s even more interesting is the fact that the Panthers rank a lowly 242nd in the nation in 3-point field goal defense. The Panthers don’t have many weaknesses but perimeter defense has been one and isn’t basketball all about matchups? We also have a high ranked team playing a nobody and when you wager on high ranked teams in situations like this, you’re almost always going to pay a premium to do so. Also note that the Panthers come in with an unblemished 7-0 mark and they beat the team (Robert Morris) by 19 points that the Dukes only loss came against. That fact also has this line inflated and it’s just not a good idea to pay extra to wager on specific teams in certain situations. This is one of those games. Play: #588 Duquesne +10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
LOYOLA CHICAGO +3½ over Butler
The Ramblers are not a recognizable school and certainly not mentioned in many conversations when talking college ball. On the other hand, the Butler Bulldogs are perhaps the most recognizable little school in college ball. In fact, you all might remember that Butler made it to the NCAA Championship game last year and lost by a bucket to the Dukies. The Bulldogs make the dance every year because they dominate the Horizon League every year. Having said that, what we have her is a classic case here of a reputable program being a small favorite on the road against an unfamiliar school. Last season the Bulldogs escaped the Gentile Center with a 48-47 decision and five of the last nine meetings have been decided by four or fewer points. That’s significant and so is the fact that the Ramblers are 7-0. Loyola returns seven experienced players from a last season's 14-16 team, including all five starters plus Walt Gibler, the Horizon League's sixth man of the year. The Ramblers have five players averaging in double figures and they're outscoring foes by 15.4 points per game. They haven’t played anyone significant yet but neither have the Bulldogs and it would appear they’re experiencing a severe hangover from last year’s incredible run. Butler comes in with just a 3-2 record with losses to Louisville and Evansville. The Bulldogs three wins have come against Marion College, Sienna and Ball St. Butler will be without starting point guard Ronald Nored, who suffered a head injury earlier this season and that hurts. This a huge game for the home team and they absolutely have a legit shot at beating this intruder for the first time in a long time. Play: #560 Loyola Chicago +3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Florida +1.36 over ANAHEIM
Great spot for the Panthers here for a number of reasons. First, they remain one of the NHL’s most undervalued squads because of a small following and very little recognition. Fact is, this Florida team is as tough as shoe leather and they play their hearts out almost every single shift. The Panthers had dropped three straight before beating the Lightning in its last game and that was really an important win heading into this three-game trip through the West Coast. What makes the Panthers most appealing however, is that the Ducks have played a whole bunch of sub par games this season and this is the exact type of situation for that to occur again. You see, Anaheim is coming off wins over Phoenix and Los Angeles, the latter being its biggest rival and they have the Red Wings and Coyotes on deck Friday and Sunday respectively. The Panthers have not played here in two years and this is a game the Ducks will not be as jacked up for. When they’re not 100% focused, the Ducks that is, they’re about as beatable a team as any because of a defense that coughs up the puck continuously and that’s even on a good night. The Ducks are in a vulnerable spot and they’re ripe to get beat tonight. Play Florida +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +2.27 over MONTREAL
Beware of a young and talented team that is gaining momentum and confidence. The Oilers have now played three strong games in succession and they’ve also won three of its last five games. They may have the least amount of wins in the league this year but there’s probably at least 10 GM’s in the NHL that would trade their whole team for the Oilers whole team in a heartbeat. Again, Edmonton is loaded with young talent and they truly have a great shot against any team that takes them lightly and a legit shot against any team that doesn’t. They’ll go into more funks this year but when they’re playing with confidence, as they are right now, they’re very dangerous. The Habs are 100% overvalued. They have one of the NHL’s best records but that’s mainly due to the outstanding goaltending of Carey Price. The Habs surely do not dominate games like the other upper echelon teams. The Canadiens know how to win, as they’re the most opportunistic team in the NHL but in no way do they warrant being this monster a favorite over the Oilers. Furthermore, three of the last five games these two have played have gone to OT with Montreal winning all three and the Oilers winning the other two. Oilers absolutely have a shot to win. Play: Edmonton +2.27 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.36 over PHILADELPHIA
Anytime you can take back a tag like this on the B’s, you’re getting value and this one is no exception. The Bruins are rock solid from top to bottom and the best news is that they play much stronger on the road. In fact, Boston has won eight of its 11 games away from home and with four losses in its last five overall you know for sure you’re going to get a strong effort out of them. The Flyers are an interesting squad. The own one of the NHL’s best records but they keep losing to teams above .500 and beating teams below. A close look reveals the Flyers losses have come against St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay (twice), Anaheim, Columbus, Washington, Montreal and most recently, Calgary and New Jersey in OT. Against teams .500 or better the Flyers are just 6-8 this season and thus, they may not be as good as advertised and neither is their rookie goaltender, Sergei Bobrovsky. Play: Boston +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +1.32 over MINNESOTA
The Coyotes have dropped two in a row after a seven game winning streak but losses don’t always tell the story. Phoenix outplayed both Anaheim on Saturday and Nashville last night but its usually reliable goaltending was anything but. The Coyotes outshout the Preds last night 35-23 yet still lost 3-0. Forget about that for now, as this one is more about taking back a tag against the NHL’s biggest imposters, the Minnesota Wild. The Wild are above .500 not because they deserve to be but because they had a genie following them around for the first six weeks of the season. They somehow managed to fluke out a bunch of wins by scoring some bizarre goals and getting incredible goaltending out of an average goaltender in Niklas Backstrom. Fact is, the Wild get dominated almost every single game in terms of scoring chances and time of possession inside the opposition’s blue line. However, its luck has ran out and they’ve now lost four of five with only win over that stretch coming against the Preds on Thanksgiving when they scored five times on 23 shots. The Coyotes will give Ilya Bryzgalov the night off in favor of Jason LaBarbera but the real value here is playing against the Wild as the chalk because this host does not deserve to be the chalk over anyone and that includes the Maple Leafs, Islanders, Oilers and certainly not these hard working Desert Dogs. Play: Phoenix +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Hollywood Sports
Pepperdine at Pacific
Prediction: Pacific
Pepperdine (2-5) returns all five starters and all of their players that played significant minutes last season. But unfortunately for them, that does not necessarily translate into the needed improvement from a team that was a 7-24 last year. Lets look a couple of deeper metrics regarding the Waves last season. Points-Per-Possession is an effective way to measure offensive and defensive efficiency that is superior than looking at just offensive and defensive scoring averages per game since it takes into account the wildly disparate tempos that various college basketball teams play. PPP neutralizes how pace can artificially increase or decrease per-game averages. Pepperdine averaged only 0.94 PPP on offense while allowing 1.13 PPG on defense in West Coast Conference play. Another helpful metric is "effective field goal percentage" (eFG: 3-pointers are given 50% more weight -- since these shots are 50% more valuable in producing 3-points versus 2-points -- to provide a more precise measurement of a defense's performance). Pepperdine managed only a 43% eFG on offense but allowed their opponents to enjoy a 55% eFG mark. In all, not good. Tellingly, Pepperdine is allowing their opponents to shoot 49% from the field this season. Now they face a Pacific team (4-2) that returns three starters from their 23-12 club last season. For comparison's sake, Pacific produced a 1.08 PPG on offense while holding teams to 0.95 PPP in Big West play last season. With point guard Demetrece Young and forward Sam Willard both back, the Tigers have a strong 1-2 inside-outside threat. And this will only be their second home game of the season this year. They have covered 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite and should take care of business tonight after losing their last game to Missouri State. Lay the points with Pacific.
John Ryan
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
3* graded play on Detroit as they take on Miami set to start at 7 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 1996. Play against home favorites of 10 or more points after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and is a marginal winning team posting a 51% to 60% win percentage and playing a bad team that has won just 25 to 40% of their games. Detroit is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Miami is an ordinary team and is having to deal with facing Cleveland tomorrow night. Take Detroit.
LT Profits
Western Michigan -1
The Western Michigan Broncos and the Towson Tigers have identical 1-3 records vs. the NCAAB betting odds this year. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that is where the similarities end in this NCAAB matchup.
The college basketball latest line from Bookmaker for this contest is Western Michigan -1, with the betting odds set at -110.
You see, Western Michigan has been butting heads with the likes of Illinois and Xavier, and they even covered the NCAAB odds vs. the Musketeers at Xavier, losing by just a 68-65 count as 15½ point underdogs. They also have an impressive 12-point road win at Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Towson’s only win was vs. a non-lined opponent in Coppin State, and they even lost a non-lined contest at home to Navy in their last game.
The most disturbing part about that Navy loss is that the Tigers allowed 89 points after allowing 87 points in a loss to the Buffalo Bulls in their previous contest. We know it is only four games, but Towson ranks 285th out of 345 Division I teams in defensive efficiency right now, allowing 1.07 points per possession in NCAAB betting. They also rank 224th in defensive effective field goal percentage against, at 50.4 percent.
Now the Broncos are not world-beaters by any means, and they are not a good outside shooting club. However, they are hitting on a very good 51.3 percent of their two-point attempts, so they should get plenty of opportunities to have success in the paint here, especially since Towson has not realty been turning teams over either, forcing turnovers on just 17.4 percent of opponents’ possessions, which ranks 308th in the country.
You will not see us recommending Western Michigan on the road often with a betting line close to even, but the Broncos are the logical play in this NCAAB matchup.
Larry Ness
Michigan State @ Duke
Pick: Michigan State +10
No. 1 Duke hosts No. 6 Michigan St as the 2010 ACC/Big 10 Challenge concludes tonight with five games. No game is bigger than this, as Coach K's team has opened 6-0, including a "statement game" against then third-ranked Kansas State back on Nov 23 in the CBE Classic final at KC. Duke won that game 82-68 and then traveled to Portland over the weekend, dismantling Oregon, 98-71. Tom Izzo's Spartans are 5-1, losing only to surprising UConn 70-67 in the Maui Invitational. Duke's loaded again. Smith (16.8) leads in scoring and has so much help in the backcourt, one could run out of space talking out it. Freshman Irving (14.5-5.8 APG) has been "as good as advertised," joined by sophomore Dawkins (11.7) plus transfer Curry (9.0). Up front, LY's MVP of the Final 4, Singler (16.2-5.7), leads the way joined by the 6-10 Plumlee brothers, Mason (11.0-8.5) who is really coming into his own and Miles (4.3-4.7). As talented and as deep as Duke is (not to mention Coach K), I still want all those points with Izzo and his Spartans. They'll come in with "plenty to prove" and expect the Spartans to battle the Dookies all the way. Returning guards Lucas (17.5), Summers (15.2) and Lucious (7.0) are joined by freshman Appling (6.5) to give MSU a backcourt which can stand up to Duke's group. Up front, the gifted 6-6 Green (14.0-9.5) is a real talent plus the 6-10 Sherman (6.7-3.8) and the 6-8 Roe (6.2-5.7) won't back down from the Plumlee brothers. Duke is 10-1 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, although that lone loss came last year at Wisconsin. Could the Big 10 make it two straight over Duke? Considering Duke has won 80 straight non-conference games at Cameron Indoor Stadium, that may be too much to ask. However, I want the points!
Steve Janus
Michigan State vs. Duke Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State +11.5
While the Blue Devils have started the season on a roll, I think they are in for quite a game tonight against the Spartans. Head coach Tom Izzo will have Michigan State ready to play, and while they might not come away with a win, I think they easily keep it within 10 points. The Spartans are 16-6 ATS in road games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of = 80%), as it's 23-4 (85%) over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic +2
Getting points with the Orlando Magic Wednesday is an absolute gift. They are clearly the better team and have had Chicago's number. The Bulls simply do not match up well with Orlando, as there are mismatches all over the floor in the Magic's favor. Orlando is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Chicago. In their last two meetings, the Magic won by 29 at home and by 20 on the road. In fact, they have won 4 of their last 6 meetings all by 19 points or more.
Orlando is off to a 13-4 start this season. They have owned Chicago's division as well, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central. Meanwhile, the Bulls are just 12-29 ATS in their last 41 vs. NBA Southeast division foes. Chicago also tends not to play well when returning home from a long road trip. The Bulls are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Orlando is 29-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are also an identical 29-14 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less since 1996. I'll side with the better team receiving points tonight. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +7
Boston has to be feeling a little bit fat and happy about last night dominant performance. Meanwhile, the Blazers couldn't be hungrier after losing a 4th straight game last night. Seeing Boston overvalued at home in nothing new. As a result, the Celtics are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. It also certainly can't be overlooked that Boston is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Blazers are one of the best teams in the league to back in back-to-backs. In fact, they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games playing on 0 days rest. Take Portland and the points.