Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 14

David Chan

Phoenix Coyotes @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

The 15-11-3 Phoenix Coyotes wander into Anaheim to take on the 8-16-5 Ducks.

Mike Smith gets the start for the Coyotes in the first game of the back to back scenario for Phoenix (vs. Edmonton tomorrow night); he'll be opposed by Jonas Hiller between the pipes.

Phoenix has won four straight in this series; I expect that trend to end tonight.

The Coyotes have the worst power-play in the entire league at just 10.9%.

In fact the Coyotes are just 2 for 46 on the power-play over their last 16 outings.

And now to make matters worse for the "Desert Dogs", they've given up 8 goals on 18 chances with the man advantage during their 2-3-0 losing streak.

Anaheim on the other hand, has one of the better penalty-kill units in the league at 84.6%.

Phoenix is caught "looking ahead" to its game with the Oilers tomorrow night, and the Ducks take advantage of its struggling power-play and penalty-kill units; in my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value"!

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Boston @ Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa +1.5

I've had a good read on both of these teams lately, cashing a ticket against the Senators (with the Canucks) on Saturday, and then with the Bruins over the Kings last night.

On Wednesday, I'm expecting a tightly-contested game, and as a result, I'll step in with a rare chalky play on the Sens puck-line.

The Bruins skated away with a 3-0 win last night, turning in a stellar defensive effort in their first game without Zdeno Chara. He's expected to miss a week of action due to a lower body injury.

The road gets a little tougher tonight, as the B's hit the road to face a Senators team that gave them all they could handle back in early November. In that game, their lone previous meeting this season, the two teams were neck-and-neck until Boston scored a pair of unanswered third period goals. Keep in mind, that game was played in Beantown.

Ottawa has collected at least a point in four of its last six games, and is coming off an overtime victory in Buffalo last night. This is a key spot for the Sens, as it's the start of a four-game homestand, that will feature four Eastern Conference opponents.

It's not as if Boston has been dominating its foes lately. The Bruins had lost back-to-back games before righting the ship in Columbus on Saturday. It's worth noting that they fell behind 2-0 early in that game before rallying for a 5-3 win. Last night's win came against a reeling Kings squad that is really struggling to find the back of the net.

When you're backing a team +1.5 goals, you're always going to pay a steep price. However, in this particular case, I believe this line could actually be a little higher. I'm not bold enough to call for the outright upset, but I do expect the Sens to keep things close until the final whistle.

Jim Feist

UTEP vs UNLV
Pick: UNLV

The UTEP Miners (2-4) face their toughest test to date when they take on the UNLV Rebels (9-2) at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. The Miners are 0-2 on the road with losses to New Mexico State (89-73) on Nov. 19 and Oregon (64-59) on Nov. 29. The Miners are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Mountain West. UNLV brings a perfect 6-0 home mark at the Thomas & Mack Center into the game. The Rebels are 8-0 in their home city this season, including a 90-80 upset of top-ranked North Carolina at Orleans Arena on Nov. 26. The Rebels have won seven of their eight games in Las Vegas by double digit points, the exception being a 71-67 victory over Nevada on Nov. 14. The Runnin' Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Conference USA. Play UNLV!

MATT RIVERS

Wednesday night's comp play winner is the go with the sizzling Rebels of Ole Miss on their home court against UL-Lafayette.

The poor-traveling Ragin' Cajuns have lost all four of their true road games, and that includes a non-lined double-digit loss at Lamar the last time they hit the road. Hard to imagine the Cajuns being able to keep things close in Oxford if they couldn't stay close at Lamar!

Ole Miss is on a five-game winning streak, including a pair of confidence-boosting quality road wins at DePaul and Penn State. The Rebels are a perfect 5-0 straight up at home this season, and 2-0-1 against the spread in their lined home dates.

Dating back to last season, the Rebels are on a 6-1-1 home spread roll, and they are also a money-turning 6-1-1 against the spread their last eight played against Sun Belt competition.

Only a matter of time before this double-digit spot evaporates for the Cajuns.

Lay it with the streaking home team.

3♦ OLE MISS

JEFF BENTON

Your Wednesday freebie is the College of Charleston at home as the small favorite over Tennessee.

These schools are meeting for the third straight season, and last year the Cougars went into Knoxville on New Year's Eve as the 11-point underdog and shellacked the Vols, 91-78!

This season new Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin has his hands full in what is a major rebuilding process after Bruce Pearl left the programs in shambles.

Martin's team is just 3-5, and riding a three-game losing streak that has seen them fail all three against the spread.

The College of Charleston meanwhile is a riding a four-game winning streak that has their current season mark to 7-1. The Cougars have covered two of three lined home games this season, and with a "big-name"program coming into their cozy gym, expect a rowdy crowd to make life difficult on the rebuilding Volunteers.

This one could be a double-digit home win for Charleston.

2♦ COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON

DAVID BANKS

Tennessee / Charleston Under

The mighty SEC will match wits with the Southern Conference when the Tennessee Volunteers (3-5, 5-3 ATS) battle the Charleston Cougars (7-1, 4-3 ATS) on Wednesday night, tip-off from TD Bank Arena is scheduled to go live on ESPN2 & ESPN3.com starting at 9:00 ET.

Since covering its first five games of the season and posting a 3-2 SU mark which included competitive losses to both Duke and Memphis, things have spiraled out of control for head coach Cuonzo Martin’s Volunteers who have gone on to lose both straight up and against spread in each of their last three hardwood clashes. With both Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris no longer members of the team, the Vols have suffered tremendously at the defensive end of the court giving up an average of 73.1 PPG (#291) while allowing the opposition to shoot 45% from the field (#266). Thankfully, Tennessee has done a solid job cleaning the glass outrebounding opponents by 4.3 rebounds per game, which has led to excelled play at the offensive end of the court where guard Trae Golden’s 15.1 PPG average has led his team to a 79.2 PPG average (#31). Tennessee enters this spot 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS away from Knoxville on the year.

Charleston currently sits atop the South Division of the Southern Conference entering its fourth neutral court game of the season; the Cougars went 2-1 SU throughout its run in the Battle for Atlantis Tournament right before Thanksgiving. After arriving back home, the Cougars went on to pound The Citadel 83-64 (-16.5) in their SoCon opener before squeaking one out in overtime against Chattanooga their last time out. Head coach Bobby Cremins’ squad possesses four double digit scorers with Antwaine Wiggins’ 17.4 PPG leading the way. Big man Trent Wiedeman has really taken his game to the next level registering a near double-double every night with 13.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Scoring hasn’t been a problem (#59 at 76 PPG), but preventing the opposition from doing so as well has been with the Cougars surrendering a 41% conversion rate from the field (#210) and a 31.3% shooting percentage from beyond the arc (#119).

These teams have split their last two meetings in each of the last two seasons with Tennessee pasting Charleston 86-69 in 2009 and the Cougars returning the favor last season winning 91-78 as hefty 11 point underdogs; the ‘over’ cashed in both contests. The Volunteers have failed to cover each of their last seven following a pointspread defeat and possess a terrible 1-8 ATS mark against the L/9 .500 opponents they’ve faced. Charleston has covered each of its last four against the SEC, and carries an impressive 55-25 ATS tally in its L/80 nonconference matchups.

SPORTS WAGERS

South Florida +115 over AUBURN

Lots of reasons to lay off the Tigers here and we’ll start with the fact that they’ve been off since December 2 when they were drilled by Seton Hall 81-59. That was the only quality team that Auburn faced this season and they’ve only played five games in total. The other four games were against McNeese St., Kennesaw, Nicholls State and Arkansas Pine Bluff. Meanwhile, South Florida will play its 12th game of the season tonight. The Bulls have already played the likes of Kansas, Old Dominion, VCU and Penn State. They lost by four to the Nittany Lions and they took a very good ODU to OT. The real deal here is that the Auburn Tigers are nothing this season. They scheduled a ton of games against cupcakes and that’s not going to prepare them for when they have to play SEC teams. The Bulls are not a threat to do anything in the Big East but at least they scheduled some games they had no chance of winning. That counts and it makes them more battle tested than the Tigers by a wide margin. Auburn is unlikely to beat any quality team this year. Play South Florida +115 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NHL

Rob Vinciletti

Denver vs. Northern Colorado
Play: Northern Colorado +3½

Denver is an improved team with a 6-2 record which is better than that of under .500 North Colorado team. However Denver plays much better on their home court. As good as Denver is at home, they are just as bad when they take to the road. In fact, Denver is an awful 1-17 straight up and ats on the road when the total is 120 to 129.5 and has failed to cover in 15 of the last 22 vs reams under .500. North Colorado has won the last 2 times spanning 3 years as a home dog of 3 or less and have won 27 of 31 on this court. They are 6-1 on Wednesday and 10-5 after scoring 80 or more last out.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Northern Colorado +4

Denver won last year's matchup at home by just 3 points, and I believe the books are asking too much of the Pioneers to win this year's on the road by 5 points. Denver has lost its last three at Northern Colorado by 15, 18 and 13 points respectively. The road has not treated Denver well. In fact, it is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 lined road games, losing these contests by an average of 9.9 points. It is only 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games when coming off at least one loss, losing these contests by an average of 9.7 points. The fact Northern Colorado shoots the ball well at a 47.4% clip also stacks the odds against the Pioneers, who are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games when matched up against a good shooting team that makes 45% or more of its shots. The Pioneers have lost these games by an average of 11.4 points. We'll take the Bears.

Jack Jones

Auburn -1½

The Auburn Tigers are off to an impressive 4-1 start this season. I'll back them as a small home favorite over 6-4 South Florida tonight. Auburn has not played since December 2nd, which has given them nearly two full weeks of rest. USF last played on Sunday, December 11th.

Auburn is 4-0 at home this season. While they have played a soft home schedule, the Tigers are still outscoring opponents 75.5 to 58.2 at home, or by an average of 17.3 points/game.

South Florida is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season. The Bulls are getting outscored 50.7 to 65.0 away from home, or by an average of 14.3 points/game. In their two true road games, USF lost to Kansas and VCU by 28 and 23 points, respectively.

The Tigers are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. The Bulls are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. South Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Bet Auburn Wednesday.

Rocketman

Denver @ Northern Colorado
Play: Northern Colorado +4

Denver is 4-22 SU and 4-22 ATS on the road the past 3 years in lined games. Northern Colorado is 27-4 SU at home the past 3 years. Denver is scoring only 63.7 points per game on the road this year. Northern Colorado is scoring 77.7 points per game at home this season. Pioneers are 26-55 ATS in their last 81 road games. Pioneers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Sky. Pioneers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win. Pioneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Pioneers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bears are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Northern Colorado tonight!

Steve Janus

Mississippi -13

After losing my SEC Non-Conference GOTY on Tuesday, I have decided to give away one of my highest rated plays for Wednesday as a free pick. I took Mississippi State -14 last night, not knowing that they were going to be missing the services of junior forward Arnett Moultrie, who averages 17.1 points and 11.3 rebounds a game.

I will not only stick to the SEC on Wednesday, but the state of Mississippi, as I have placed a big bet on the Ole Miss Rebels -13. The Rebels come into this game with an 8-1 overall record, and should have no trouble blowing out a depleted Ragin' Cajuns team that is just 5-6 on the season.

Louisiana-Lafayette is expected to be without 6'9 junior Kadeem Coleby and 6'5 sophomore J.J. Thomas. Not only are Coleby(11.4ppg) and Thomas(10.1 ppg) the Ragin' Cajuns two best scoring threats, they are the only players on the team averaging over 10-points a game. Not only are they losing their two best offensive weapons but key contributors in rebounding and defense.

Another big reason I am backing the Rebels tonight, is the new addition to the rotation for Mississippi. Freshman guard Ladarius White made his season debut(academically ineligible first 8 games) in the Rebels most recent 80-56 win over Mississippi Valley State. White came off the bench to score 16 points in just 26 minutes. White is added to a rotation that already had five players averaging in double-figures.

The Ragin'Cajuns injuries and the Rebels depth should allow Mississippi to jump out to an early lead and never look back.

Mississippi is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Sun Belt, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Fairway Jay

UNLV -10 1st Half

UNLV (9-2) is a legitimate top-25 team with veterans and talented additions that play well together. First-year coach Dave Rice put the Rebels through a pair of spirited practices this week following their sluggish 62-51 loss at Wisconsin last Saturday. He acknowledged that the team’s energy and execution was poor and the slow start was not acceptable. The Runnin’ Rebels prefer to push the pace and will likely be able to dictate tempo and come out with fire tonight. UTEP (2-4) head coach Tim Floyd stated that his team is “…completely rebuilding” following last year’s 25-win performance. The Miners have seven freshmen that play at least 10 minutes per game with six having started – Floyd still experimenting with different lineups and rotations. UTEP has shown some improvement the last two games with the return of senior swingman Gabriel McCulley following a foot fracture. But UTEP’s leading scorer (10 ppg) is a freshman forward and they have shown little offensive execution or rhythm in games against weaker opponents. UTEP was a 17-point underdog at Oregon against a less skilled and talented Ducks team, and the Miners hung around in a 64-59 defeat. Floyd may try to slow the game down, but don’t expect them to be too competitive in Las Vegas with limited scoring options. UTEP has played up-tempo New Mexico State two times this season, pulling the upset last time out, 73-69, but getting whipped in Las Cruces, 89-73, in mid-November. New Mexico State is not a good shooting team and not nearly as solid defensively as UNLV. The Rebels have scored at least 90 points against five opponents this season, and their adjusted offensive efficiency is top-20 nationally. I expect UNLV to run early and score, and build a lead that should only increase.