Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 15,2010

Tom Stryker

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Houston Rockets +8½

Off back-to-back blowout home wins over Cleveland and Sacramento, the knee-jerk reaction might be to fade Houston here especially since the Rockets are taking a step up in class. I wouldn't do that if I were you.

Since 1990, NBA road teams that check in off back-to-back home favorite wins are a respectable 49-32 ATS provided they won both of those games straight up by double-digits and are matched up against a foe that arrives with momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. In this role battling an opponent that won by 10 points or more, this technical gem tightens up to a spectacular 30-15 ATS! Houston fits both pieces of this solid system.

Ironically, Oklahoma City has been at its worst when running the court against an opponent that carries a ton of momentum. In fact, at home facing a foe that slips in off two or more straight up wins of 10 points or more, the Thunder are a woeful 23-39-1 ATS. It should be noted that OKC is a shocking 0-15 SU and 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 in this role!

As a conference home favorite battling an opponent that enters off a double-digit straight up win, Oklahoma City has posted a dismal 27-54 ATS record including a stunning 6-23 ATS in this role provided its opponent is running in the second of a back-to-back.

The Rockets haven't been the best road team. That fact is noted. However, head coach Rick Adelman's troops are good enough to fall inside this inflated number. Take Houston.

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -7

Portland is 12-13 straight up this year. The Trailblazers are 3-8 ATS their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 0-5-1 ATS vs. NBA Southwest teams. Portland is 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 road games. Dallas 19-5 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS on Wednesday and they are 6-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Mavs are 20-8-2 ATS their last 30 Conference games. Dallas is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games overall Dallas is 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +8½

The Bucks are one of the top rebounding teams in the NBA and one of the best defensively, allowing 93.2 ppg. Milwaukee is on a 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS run, including a 103-99 win at Dallas the last game as a +7 dog. They have plenty of young legs to run with the Spurs, plus they are in the Top 10 at defending the three-pointer -- and that's San Antonio's game. An excellent spot for the big dog. Play the Bucks.

Gregg Price

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +3

I think I am like most people, I can't believe the Knicks are 16-9. They have only won over 30 games (32,33) twice in the last 5 years. D'Antoni is a good coach and it was only a matter of time before the Knicks started winning again. But I'm still not completely sold on the Knicks yet. They play no defense, and have only beaten 2 teams with a winning record on this streak. But if you look at this series, as bad as the Knicks have been in years, they have played the Celtics very close, including a 4 point game back in week 1.

Scott Spreitzer

UC-Santa Barbara @ UNLV
PICK: UNLV -16.5

I released the Rebels on these pages this past Saturday. UNLV, a 3 1/2 point dog at Louisville, actually led the Cardinals by nine points in the second half, but were caught and surpassed by the red-hot hand of Preston Knowles. UNLV made just 9 of 21 second half shots and turned it over 10 times over the final 20 minutes. That's unlike the Rebs as they went into the game connecting on 54% of their shots. Now, back home, I expect the Rebels to get back on track. UNLV has had three days to "recup" after logging a lot of travel miles. UNLV returns all five starters from a season ago. Just as important, the bench is the deepest Lon Kruger has ever had at UNLV and maybe in his entire college coaching career. That's saying a lot when you consider Kruger has taken two programs to the Final Four. The returning players were instrumental in holding the opposition to just 63 ppg last season. Let's not forget, the Rebels were 15th in the nation in assists per game and they were 37th best in fewest turnovers per game. UNLV went into the Louisville game, allowing just 60 ppg, yet they were scoring over 78 ppg, themselves. The Rebels were second in the nation in FG percentage, while holding their opponents to 36.9% shooting. I'm not going to let 16 minutes of sloppy basketball take away from 9 1/2 games of strong, top-20 play. Instead, we'll recommend a play on UNLV minus the points on Wednesday.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland @ Miami
Pick: Cleveland +17.5

he shoe will be on the other foot when Cleveland invades South Beach to take on the red-hot Heat in a rematch from two weeks ago when Miami murdered the Cavs in a 28-point blowout at the 'Q'. Despite the loss, Cleveland takes the court sporting an 11-6 SU and ATS mark in this series, including 6-1 ATS when Miami is off a win and cover in its last game. With the Cavs off a 28-point loss in its last game Sunday at Oklahoma City, look the red-faced Cavs to dig deep tonight and bring home the cash. We recommend a 1-unit play in Cleveland.

LT Profits

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +5

While we get that the Los Angeles Clippers are 0-10 straight up on the road this season, they are actually 6-4, 60.0 percent against the NBA betting odds in those games and they are now visiting a Philadelphia 76ers team that is not shooting the ball well lately.

The NBA latest line from Bodog for this contest is the Clippers +5, with the betting odds set at -110.

Yes, the 76ers have won four of their last five games straight up with the only loss coming by one point to the Boston Celtics on a last second shot, and Philadelphia has remarkably covered nine games in a row vs. the NBA odds. However, most of that success has come in an underdog role, and this line suggests that the sportsbooks are starting to catch up with them.

After all, the Sixers have scored just 82 and 88 points in their last two wins respectively while shooting just 63 of 151 from the field for only 41.7 percent. That kind of shooting makes it difficult to cover as favorites, and it may be time for their luck to run out here. Over the entire season, Philadelphia ranks 20th in the NBA in scoring at 97.3 points per game, just two spots ahead of the Clippers at 22nd with 95.8 points, suggesting a low scoring NBA matchup here.

Lower scoring games generally favor the underdog in NBA betting, and tonight should be no exception. Believe it or not, the 5-20 Clippers are a respectable 12-13 ATS, as they have had a habit of playing well for three quarters and then fading away late. Well, is they follow that pattern tonight, we love their chances of covering this spread because the 76ers appear to lack the firepower to pull away late from anybody right now.

The Clippers swept both head-to-head meetings last season including a 112-107 overtime win here in Philadelphia as 3½ point underdogs, and we look for them to at the very least cover the point spread again in this NBA matchup.

Craig Trapp

Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Chicago Bulls -5.5

Since Boozer has returned from injury this team has been rolling winning 6 in a row straight up and 4-2 ATS. Boozer is getting better game by game and think tonight has best game yet. Not sure how TOR can even keep this under 20 as CHI has an advantage at every position. Rose is questionable with wrist injury but my source says he will play tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +7

Off back-to-back poor performances against San Antonio and Memphis, I expect the Blazers to compete with Dallas tonight.

Portland has played the Mavs extremely tough, mainly because of how well it defends and rebounds. The Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and haven't lost by more than 6 in the last 6 meetings.

Dallas is a poor 4-19 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. It is only defeating these teams by 3.4 points on average. It is also just 9-21 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

Ray Monohan

San Jose Sharks vs. Nashville Predators
Play: San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks didn't have the start to the season they expected but they have been playing better of late. They enter Wednesday's game on a 4-2-1 stretch. The Nashville Predators are rolling right now as they have won six of seven, but at a closer glance, their opponents aren't exactly Stanley Cup contenders. They do have wins against Detroit and Phoenix in that stretch, but the rest have come Long Island, Florida, Columbus and Carolina. The Sharks have owned this series and that should continue. They are 9-3 against Nashville in the last 12 meetings and is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. The Predators have twice had three-game winning streaks this season and both times, they lost the fourth game. Look for the same pattern as the Sharks offer good value as a dog in this spot.

Hollywood Sports

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat
Prediction: Miami Heat

The drama of the Heat's visit to Cleveland to begin the month may have been the catalyst that brought this team together as they have now won nine games in a row (8-0 ATS). Miami's improvement has been predicated on strong play on the defensive end of the court as they have limited teams to just 85.4 PPG along with 39.9% shooting. This spells bad news for Byron Scott's team that is scoring only 88.8 PPG on 41.3% shooting over their last five games. The Cavs are not playing good defense either as they are allowing their opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field over their last five games. Cleveland has lost eight games in a row and they have failed to cover the spread in eight straight games on the road. The Heat are taking care of business against the weaker teams in the league as they have won and covered the spread five straight times against teams with a losing record. Lay the points with Miami.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA –4½ over L.A Clippers

The only logical explanation for this small number is that the 76ers will play their third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs. That’s not enough to deter us. The Clippers are a complete dumpster fire right now. They have just five wins in 25 tries and zero wins in 10 road starts. The Clippers owner, Donald Sterling, has publicly called out Baron Davis and has even heckled him on the floor. Some reports have suggested that Sterling doesn’t want to pay Davis but was told he has no choice. Team morale is at an all-time low and that says a lot for the most dysfunctional team this league has ever seen. The 76ers are just 9-15 but they’ve won seven of their past nine with only two losses over that stretch coming against East powers, Atlanta and Boston. Philly played in New Jersey last night but it’s a short trip back home and Doug Collins has this host playing exceptional defense. They’ve held their last two opponents to under 80 points. Both Andre Iguodala and Jodie Meeks had off nights yesterday, yet the Sixers still won and that’s a testament to how good they’re playing. Both players should get back on track tonight. The 76ers remain the most undervalued squad in the Association and it’s hard to envision the Clip Joint coming in here and keeping this one within this range. Play: Philadelphia –4½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Portland +7 over DALLAS

These two have a long history of close games. In past eight meetings, over three seasons, the Blazers have won or stayed within this price range in all but one. It’s a fact of NBA life that certain teams have trouble against a specific opponent and it applies here. The Blazers have been laboring most of year but showed signs of life with four straight wins in a row before falling to the Spurs and Grizz over past two. This is the final game of a four-game trip, which should result in a spirited effort from Portland in an attempt to return with a satisfying 2-2 record as opposed to a 1-3 mark. The Mavs were the hottest team in the NBA with 10 straight wins before losing to Milwaukee in their last game. That one loss often leads to two, as the intensity of keeping the streak going has been broken. Dallas has also been home for an extended period of time and that is seldom a positive thing, as players do their own thing at home and the cohesiveness of the unit breaks up. The Trail Blazers are still a dangerous team despite the losing record but they’re getting healthier and this enemy always brings out the best in them Play: Portland +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix +1.03 over NEW JERSEY

This once proud Devils team is reeling worse than one can remember. NJ put Brian Rolston on waivers yesterday and that hasn’t gone over well with his teammates. New Jersey has dropped five in a row and six of its last seven games. They can’t score, they can’t defend and Marty Brodeur has become a huge liability between the pipes. The Devils have a league-low 53 goals. Ilya Kovalchuk has been a bust, with just five goals thus far. Conversely, the Coyotes have won six of its last seven road games and own one of the best road records in the NHL. They also embark on a six–game trip starting with this one and that’s significant, as the first game of an extended trip often sets the tone for the excursion. The Coyotes have allowed just 12 goals over their last seven road games. They have a big edge in net, in momentum, in talent, in work ethic and most importantly, in the desire to win. Play: Phoenix +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +1.20 over MONTREAL

The reason for the regulation play is that it’s 12 cents higher than OT included and frankly, there’s no reason for that other than the Habs outstanding OT record over the years. The Flyers are hot with five wins in six games with their only loss over that stretch coming against the Sharkies in OT in a game they led 4-1 in the third. They ended the Penguins 12-game winning streak last night and a letdown here is not likely, as there is no love lost in this series. Habs won earlier contest in this building but the Flyers avenged that one with a 3-2 victory back in Philly and now would like nothing more than to stick it to the Habs in their own barn. Montreal is among the league leaders in points but should not be priced in same range as the Red Wings, Penguins, Caps or Sharks. The Habs are overvalued because of a strong start but they’ve overachieved due to the great goaltending of Carey Price. Talent wise, the Canadiens are middle of the pack at best and while Price can steal a game at anytime, the fact is that when you’re taking back 20 cents on the Flyers against the Habs, you’re going with the best of it. Play: Philadelphia +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

Steve Merril

Akron vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -14.5

Akron just got blown out at Temple by 35 points (82-47) and the Zips appear to be in for another long night in Minnesota. This will be their fourth consecutive road game, and it’s really a game that doesn’t mean all that much to them. Head coach Keith Dambrot knows that his team is in for a tough game, and he’s looking at this game as a teaching experience. 'One good thing this year is we have already hit some adversity,' Dambrot said. 'It helps you in the long run when you have to deal with adversity and overcome it. We have to use games like this [Temple and Minnesota] to get ready for our league.” Minnesota has too much size for Akron to be competitive here. Temple out-rebounded the Zips 44-27, and the Gophers are a much bigger team than Temple. That means Akron will be pounded even harder on the boards tonight: 'They are big and strong inside. They have Big Ten size,' Dambrot said. 'That's what concerns me the most. It's a huge challenge.” Minnesota will get a ton of easy buckets tonight allowing them to stretch-out to a big home win.