Rocketman
UL Lafayette vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -19
Louisiana Lafayette is 1-7 overall this year while Central Florida comes in with an 8-0 record this season. Louisiana Lafayette is 0-6 ATS last 3 years against Conference USA opponents. Central Florida is 10-2 ATS since 1997 in a home game where the total is 130 to 134 1/2. Central Florida is 21-8 ATS since 1997 and 14-4 ATS last 3 years after allowing 60 points or less. Central Florida is scoring 82.3 points per game at home this year and allowing 52.5 points per game at home this season. One set of my power ratings has Central Florida winning this game by 30.11 points. We'll recommend a small play on Central Florida tonight!
Info Plays
3* Hornets -10
Reasons why the Hornets will cover:
1) This is the perfect opportunity to jump back on the Hornets, as they take on a Kings team that is really struggling on the road. Sacramento is just 2-7 ATS away from home this season, and are being outscored by over 10 points a game. New Orleans is rock solid on their home court, starting the season 9-3, and have been a solid choice ATS at home against teams with a losing record.
2) The Kings are just 3-11 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season, and are 3-11 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.
3) New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Timberwolves/Suns OVER 223.5
The last time these teams met in Phoenix, we saw a total of 266 points scored. The time before that, we saw 232 total points scored. Minnesota and Phoenix are both among the worst defensive teams in the league, and I expect another high-scoring game in Phoenix tonight because of it. The fact that Minnesota just played last night helps our cause here as well. With tired legs from playing an uptempo game against the Warriors, the T-Wolves will be able to provide very little resistance on the defensive end tonight. The Over is 16-5 in the Timberwolves' last 21 games playing on 0 days rest and 8-2 in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. Bet the Over.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers -5
The Philadelphia 76ers got off to a slow start this season, but once they finally bought into new head coach Doug Collins' system they have been on fire. Philly is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games with their only losses to the Hawks by 5 and to the Celtics by a single points 101-102. The 76ers are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games and once again are undervalued as just a small home favorite against the lowly Clippers Wednesday.
The Clippers are 5-20 this season, getting outscored by 5.9 PPG. Los Angeles has been absolutely atrocious on the road this year where they have yet to earn a victory. The Clippers are 0-10 in road games, getting outscored by 10.9 PPG. The 76ers are 7-5 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 7.4 PPG. Philly is allowing 91.4 PPG on their home floor this year, while the Clippers yield a whopping 108.2 PPG on the road. Take the 76ers Wednesday.
BEN BURNS
Avalanche @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5.5
Some shops are currently offering this line at 6 -110. However, most still have it listed at or around 5.5o40, meaning one gets a solid underdog return with the 'under.' Personally, I'd probably prefer the first option, as it gives us a 'push' if the game lands on six. Those who bet under 5.5 regularly in hockey will tell you that a game can be 2-2 with a couple minutes left and still easily finish at 4-2. One team scores, the other pulls its goalie. You get the idea ... Either way, however, I believe both lines provide us with solid value.
*Note this likely would have been a "guaranteed" play if a line of six had been more widely available. For those that can get a six, note that that 'under' is a highly profitable 51-22-9 the last 82 times that that Hawks played a home game with an O/U line of six or greater. (That's 70%.)
These teams just played a very high-scoring game (7-5 Avs) against each other, at Colorado, a couple of nights ago. That doesn't mean we necessarily need to expect another high-scoring game. Often, in these "home and home" series, the opposite is true. If the first is high-scoring, the "rematch" is often lower-scoring. (And vice versa.)
In this case, we find the 'under' at 7-2 when the Hawks had allowed four or more goals in their previous game. With the 'under' also at 14-5-1 the last 20 times that the Avs had won three straight, don't be surprised if this one features far fewer goals than either of the previous meetings, (Avs also won 4-3 on 11/7) both of which were at Colorado. Consider the Under
LARRY NESS
L.A. Clippers @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -5
The Clippers visit Philly on Wednesday night searching for their first road win of the season. The Clippers are 0-10 on the road this season, joining the Wizards (0-12), as the only teams left in the NBA which have yet to away from home this year. Gordon (24.5-4.6 APG) and Griffin (20.3-11.9) give the Clippers a glimpse of what "may someday be" but as for now, the 2010-11 season is destined to be another in a long line of "lost seasons." As for Philly, the team got off to an awful start but post-Thanksgiving, has turned things around. The Sixers have won SIX of their last eight games, covering all EIGHT. The Celtics are the only team (in a 102-101 win at Philly) to reach triple digits against the Sixers in their recent eight-game ATS winning streak, as Philadephia has held its other seven opponents to just 84.0 PPG. Philly has surprising depth with Brand (15.5-8.2), Iquodala (13.7-6.6-5.7) and PG Holiday (13.5-6.7 APG) leading the way. Going back even further, Philly is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home, losing only that game to the Celtics, on a KG basket with just over one second remaining in the game. I've backed the 76ers a number of times lately and would be "all over" them here, if not for them having just won at New Jersey last night. With that in mind, let's make a small play on the Sixers.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 205
Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and it has played its best "D" on the road, where it is only allowing 89.4 ppg. With fresh legs, I expect Boston to really tighten the screws of the defensive end in this one. Plays Under on any team (Celtics in this case), well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%), are 62-28 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing 189.2 total points scored in this situation on average. Bet the Under.
Steve Janus
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play:Philadelphia 76ers -5
Philadelphia may not have the best overall record, but they are 16-7 ATS this season, and have covered in 9 of their 12 home games this season. This is a perfect matchup for the 76ers, as the Clippers have yet to win a game on the road this season!
The 76ers are are 16-9 ATS against the Clippers in their last 25 meetings, and are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. Philadelphia has been taking care of the basketball lately, and that usually means money in the bank. The 76ers are 13-4 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at New York
The Knicks look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. New York is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2)
Game 501-502: Chicago at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.754; Toronto 113.889
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: Boston at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.716; New York 124.346
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 4 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: LA Lakers at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.727; Indiana 123.465
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 197
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Over
Game 507-508: LA Clippers at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 113.060; Philadelphia 122.943
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 10; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5; 194
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5); Under
Game 509-510: Cleveland at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 108.062; Miami 123.332
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 15 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 17; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+17); Over
Game 511-512: Houston at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 114.319; Oklahoma City 123.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2); Under
Game 513-514: Sacramento at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 110.066; New Orleans 118.409
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 10; 186
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10); Over
Game 515-516: Charlotte at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 111.990; Memphis 121.933
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 10; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-8 1/2); Under
Game 517-518: Milwaukee at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 119.643; San Antonio 125.727
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 196
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+8 1/2); Over
Game 519-520: Minnesota at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.788; Phoenix 122.326
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 224
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9 1/2); Under
Game 521-522: Portland at Dallas (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 117.638; Dallas 127.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over
Joel Tyson
Boston (-3) at NEW YORK
A couple of scolding hot teams meet in the Big Apple tonight, Boston winning their last 10 games, while New York has been a winner their last 8 times on the hardwood, and 13 of 14 overall.
Who wins?
I like Boston, as I think the Celtics are the deeper team, and I think the C's will want to teach a lesson to their upstart division rivals.
Boston is 9-3 against the spread on the road this season, and they have also won 8 of the last 10 series meetings against New York.
No disrespect at all to New York, as I hope they continue on their road back to the penthouse, but the Knicks are still a little "untested" if you ask me, and tonight they are not getting enough points to make me interested in backing them.
Take the Celtics minus the road impost.
5♦ BOSTON
Michael Cannon
Cleveland at MIAMI (-16')
Take the Heat as the huge home chalk tonight over the Cavaliers.
I really don’t see a letdown tonight with Miami.
The Heat are clicking on all cylinders and the Cavs offer the perfect fodder for this run to continue.
Miami has won nine in a row, has cashed in eight straight and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 versus the Central Division.
The Cavs have lost seven of their last eight overall (1-7 ATS), are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games and are 1-8 ATS in their last nine versus the Southeast Divison.
Lay the wood with Miami for the home win and cover.
3♦ MIAMI
Karl Garrett,
Houston (+8) at OKLAHOMA CITY
As for your Wednesday night comp play, take the points with the Rockets as they look to stay hot in Oklahoma City tonight.
Sure the Thunder is on a 3 game winning streak, but the Rockets are also playing some hot ball. Houston win and covered last night at home to make it a 5-2 straight up run, and a 6-1 against the spread run in those 7 games.
The Rockets are also 8-2 straight up in this series the last 10 times they have faced the Thunder.
With Okie City just 5-7 against the spread at home this year, going to take the geneorus points as the Rockets keep this one close.
Houston the call from the G-Man.
2♦ HOUSTON
Chuck O'Brien
Houston at OKLAHOMA CITY (-8)
For tonight’s complimentary release in the NBA, take the Thunder at home over Houston.
The Rockets did me right last night, blasting the Kings 118-105 as a 9½-point home chalk to give me a 10 Dime winner. So why jump off Houston’s bandwagon so quickly tonight? Well, for starters, the caliber of opponent tonight is just a little bit better than crappy Sacramento (the Kings are 5-17 on the season; the Thunder are 17-8). And while the Rockets played at home last night (where they’re 7-4), they now hit the road (where they’re 3-10 SU and 6-7 ATS, including 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven).
On top of all that, Houston is in a back-to-back spot here, and it is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games when playing with no rest. Conversely, Oklahoma City has been off since Sunday’s 106-77 thrashing of the Cavaliers as a 13½-point home favorite. That was the Thunder’s third straight win and spread-cover, which followed a 2-6 ATS slump.
Going back a full calendar month, the Thunder are on a 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS run. Making that all the more impressive is the fact that Oklahoma City has played just six home games during this stretch, and only once have Thunder played consecutive games in the same building.
Admittedly, one of Oklahoma City’s four losses in its last 16 games came at the hands of the Rockets on Nov. 28 (Houston eked out a 99-98 victory as a 2½-point home underdog). But the home team has won and covered four straight in this rivalry and is 6-1 ATS in the last seven. And check out the results of the Rockets’ last two trips to Oklahoma City: 122-104 loss last March and 116-99 loss on Nov. 17.
Here comes another double-digit defeat for the Rockets in Oklahoma City, as Kevin Durant and the explosive Thunder (105.7 ppg last seven games) light up a Houston squad that’s giving up 108.2 ppg on the highway this year.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
Houston (+7') at OKLAHOMA CITY
Mark my words, this is going to be a tougher match up than anticipated for the Thunder, who've looked good in winning 3 straight... But let's not get carried away. I hear a lot of people touting the Thunder's defensive numbers over their current win streak, but in reality, those numbers are skewed downward thanks to them holding a terrible Cavaliers team to just 77 points Sunday. No doubt, they've been playing better, but so have the Rockets.
Houston, also has benefited from playing some of the lesser teams in the NBA in winning their last two (and now six in a row at home), but the questio is can they get it done on the road? I say yes, and the reason stems from their last meeting - a 99-98 outright win by the Rockets at home over the Thunder Nov. 28th.
In that game, Battier once again proved why he's one of the best on the ball defenders in the NBA, limiting Durant to 18 points on 7 of 18 shooting. Not to mention, Kevin Martin equalized Westbrook, both scoring 23 points. Scola had a tough game, but the Rockets bench proved its worth with strong efforts from Miller and Hill. Houston's bench played great against Sacramento yesterday, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Finally, for all the talk about the Thunder's offense, the Rockets are averaging 106 ppg over their L5 games. That stat is key, because they're going to need to score against this Thunder team on the road. A big part of that is their bench play, which will play a major factor in this contest once again. Both teams are getting after it on each end of the floor, and while I expect OKC to pull out the win, covering the number is a completely different story. Take Houston plus the points over Oklahoma City Wednesday.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Milwaukee at SAN ANTONIO (-8')
Tonight's free play is on the San Antonio Spurs over Milwaukee.
I don't think the question is whether or not the Spurs will win... the question is... "by how much?" And I'm saying BY A BUNCH.
Milwaukee definitely made a name for itself by shocking the Mavericks at home the other night, 103-99, ending the Mavs 12-game winning streak. They have to be on cloud 9 right now, and that's going to be their downfall.
When teams come into San Antonio with too much confidence, the disciplined Spurs usually have the last laugh. San Antonio has only lost twice at home, winning 12 of 14 games by an average of 11 points per game, including a run of four straight home wins by 15 or more.
The Spurs are doing a great job of keeping veterans Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan fully rested so if they're needed in the 4th quarter, they can come back in off the bench and play as if it were the 1st quarter.
Milwaukee has plenty of young talent, but they still struggle to win games on the road. Let's also not forget Andrew Bogut isn't 100% and might not play... and John Salmons is also questionable with a bad back.
Even if these two do play, I can't see them dominating a game like they are capable of.
The public will jump on the Bucks because of what they did in Dallas... but it's the wrong side and I'm not falling for it. Take the Spurs as your free play of the day.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee at SAN ANTONIO (-8')
For tonight's comp play, I'll take San Antonio to cover against Milwaukee.
I just backed the Bucks Monday as a comp play and watched them win outright as a road dog against Dallas. They're playing better ball, but are still worlds apart from San Antonio, which owns the best record in the NBA.
The Spurs aren't going to take the Bucks lightly. Not after Milwaukee ended Dallas' 12-game winning streak with a 103-99 road win on Monday. The Bucks, though, are just 3-8 away from Bradley Center, 1-5 in their past six road contests.
The Spurs have yet to lose in seven games against Eastern Conference foes. They should be especially strong at home having been idle and resting since Sunday.
Gregg Popovich is a master game-planner with extra time. Tim Duncan should be fresh, too, having not played more than three quarters during any of the last three games. That's because the Spurs have posted double-digit victories in their last four outings.
Duncan gives the Spurs an inside-out game with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Bucks have no perimeter game. They rank last in scoring at 91.9 points and are at the bottom in field goal percentage making just 41 percent of their shots from the field.
The Spurs shoot better (41.4 percent) from 3-point range than the Bucks do from the floor.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Bobby Maxwell
Milwaukee at SAN ANTONIO (-8')
For my comp selection, San Antonio has gone a perfect 5-0 on this current six-game homestand and the Spurs aren’t going to drop the finale today to the Bucks. I don’t see this one even being close and I’ll lay the points and play the Spurs.
The Spurs have held the opponents to less than 100 points in four straight games and held Portland to just 78 in a 95-78 win on Sunday, easily cashing as a 7 ½-point favorite. This team has been doing it with defense all season, giving up just 89.8 points per game at home, while averaging 106 points offensively.
Milwaukee comes in having won three straight, including a shocking 103-99 win in Dallas on Monday as 7 ½-point underdogs. But this team has trouble scoring the ball, averaging just 92 points a game and shooting just 41 percent from the floor.
San Antonio beat the Bucks both meetings last season, including 112-98 at home as an eight-point favorite. The Spurs are on ATS surges of 4-0 at home, 12-3-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2 after getting two days off and 5-0 against Central Division squads. Milwaukee is on ATS slides of 1-5 on the road, 3-9-2 overall, 1-4 as an underdog and 2-8-1 against Western Conference squads.
The Spurs are playing great and I’ll lay the points with them in this one.
5♦ SAN ANTONIO
Scott Delaney
Minnesota at PHOENIX (-9')
Time for Phoenix to end its home losing streak.
The Suns will take care of business against Minnesota with ease tonight, taking advantage of a team they've dominated in years past, while avoiding a four-game skid inside of US Airways Center.
That will all be history, as Phoenix has won five straight over the Timberwolves by a lofty average margin of 18 points. In addition, the Suns have won seven o eight meetings at home.
I do realize the Suns have the distinction of being the worst defensive team in the NBA, yielding 109.5 points per game, but Minnesota isn't much better.
The Timberwolves allow 109.1 points per game and are a dismal 1-13 on the road, and dating back to last season, and have lost 25 of their last 26 away from the Target Center.
Minnesota has lost eight in a row with a suitcase in hand, including last night's 108-99 drubbing in Oakland, where the Warriors erased an eight-point, first-quarter deficit to pull away for the win.
The Wolves are also mired in ATS slides of 8-21 against the Western Conference, 1-5 on the road and 1-4 overall. Meanwhile, the Suns are on a 22-9 run when laying points at home.
1♦ PHOENIX
Derek Mancini
Akron (+14') at MINNESOTA
I'll be honest with you, I'm keeping this play small, but there's no question this line is a little too convenient. We all know Akron got stomped on at Temple just three days ago, so laying this much seems like the right thing to do, but I'm wary.
Minnesota has failed to cover in 3 of their L4 home games, precisely because of double digit lines like this one. They lost to Virginia outright, and couldn't cover against Cornell or Eastern Kentucky... Not exactly the resume I want to see heading into this game. I've been reading about how good their defense supposedly is, but fact remains they're allowing almost 70 ppg over their L5 games! I know opponents are shooting just 38%, but 70 ppg is 70 ppg.
Getting their asses handed to them by Temple will serve this Akron team well, or at least well enough to keep this game within the number. Also, for all you out there touting Minnesota's size, the Zips may not be particularly big, but they have just enough to compete, incl. a 7 footer in Zeke Marshall and leading scorer 6'8 Cventinovic. It won't be easy, but I expect to see a hell of a lot more effort from coach Dambrot's troops tonight.
Long story short, keep this play small, but the right move here is fading the public. Just like I told you yesterday about Louisville, the Gophers are a bit overrated here, and laying this many when they've failed to cover at home in 3 of their L4 is a dangerous proposition. All things considered, a strong bounce back effort from the Zips will be enough to cover. Akron plus the points over Minnesota Wednesday.
1♦ AKRON
Chris Jordan
Akron at MINNESOTA (-14')
Ranked 21st in the nation, the Golden Gophers close out the "first half" of their season - the part of it before inal exams - tonight at Williams Arena. And asking them to blast a rather weak Akron squad isn't too much to ask.
Coach Tubby Smith has his troops playing well right now, as the Gophers are 9-1 and come into this hump-day clash on a three-game win streak since a loss in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.
After tonight the Gophers are off until Dec. 23, thus, getting their 10th win of the season will be at the top of their priority list. It shouldn't be too hard against the Zips, who are in after getting crushed at Temple on Sunday, 82-47.
And I'm guessing they stopped back in Akron after getting pummeled in Philadelphia, before coming to blizzard-worn Minneapolis; thus, the Zips are going to be tired for their second road game in four days - both on the road.
Expect the Goolden Gophers to work at both ends of the court, as they're a very balanced bunch that can shoot from the deflated Metrodome - nailing 35.6 percent from long-range - and is ferocious on the offensive boards to create second chances. The team is also allowing a modest 68.7 points per game, and ranks 45th in the country with 8.8 steals per contest.
The impressive part of the Gophers' presence is in the paint, where the Gophers rank 19th in the nation with 5.7 blocks per game and forward Trevor Mbakwe ranks first in the Big 10 and 21st in the nation with 10.2 rebounds per outing.
Akron, with an average frontcourt and average scoring threat, is no match for Minnesota in this venue.
Lay the points tonight, as Minnesota rolls to the easy win and cover.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Ross Benjamin
Minnesota @ Phoenix
Play: Under 223.5
Minnesota has gone under the total in 22 of their last 33 games when the total is 210.0 or more. The Timberwolves have gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 road games. The Suns have gone under the total in 3 of their last 4 at home.
Any NBA team with a total of 210.0 or more, they've failed to cover by a combined 24.0 points or more over the last 3 games, and they have a winning percentage of between .450-.550 has gone under the total 46 of 66 times (69.7%) since the start of the 1996-1997 season. Play on this game to go under the total as my free selection of the night.