Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 17

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

San Diego State at Cincinnati
The Aztecs head to Cincinnati tonight to face a Bearcat team that is coming off a 56-55 loss at Nebraska and is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU defeat. San Diego State is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Aztecs favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego State.

Game 721-722: James Madison at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 48.336; Ball State 52.309
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 4
Vegas Line: Ball State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-2)

Game 723-724: Tennessee at NC State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 62.635; NC State 70.915
Dunkel Line: NC State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NC State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-5 1/2)

Game 725-726: Arkansas State at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 45.142; Mississippi State 59.507
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-11 1/2)

Game 727-728: Detroit at Central Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 53.629; Central Florida 52.090
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+4 1/2)

Game 729-730: Georgia State at Old Dominion (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 58.770; Old Dominion 64.536
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 6
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-3 1/2)

Game 731-732: Central Michigan at Northwestern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 52.418; Northwestern 62.939
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 6
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-6)

Game 733-734: Illinois-Chicago at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 47.692; SMU 65.363
Dunkel Line: SMU by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 21
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+21)

Game 735-736: Missouri State at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 51.602; Tulsa 65.723
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 14
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 8
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-8)

Game 737-738: San Diego State at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 67.027; Cincinnati 64.495
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State

Game 739-740: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 57.414; Michigan State 75.089
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-14 1/2)

Game 741-742: Loyola Marymount at Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 50.335; Stanford 63.201
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 13
Vegas Line: Stanford by 17
Dunkel Pick: Loyola Marymount (+17)

Game 743-744: Portland at UNLV (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 57.362; UNLV 60.168
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 3
Vegas Line: UNLV by 6
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6)

Game 745-746: Northeastern vs. Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 55.375; Cal Poly 53.972
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+3 1/2)

Game 747-748: CS-Northridge at Oregon (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 46.722; Oregon 70.858
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 24
Vegas Line: Oregon by 18
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-18)

Game 749-750: Manhattan at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 55.017; Pittsburgh 63.877
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+11)

Game 751-752: Tennessee-Martin at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 49.221; Illinois State 65.371
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 16
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-10 1/2)

Game 753-754: Morehead State at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 51.280; WI-Green Bay 64.630
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 11
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-11)

Game 755-756: Northern Colorado at NE-Omaha (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 48.807; NE-Omaha 50.386
Dunkel Line: NE-Omaha by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: NE-Omaha by 4
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+4)

Game 761-762: Hampton at Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 48.245; Illinois 66.311
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 20
Dunkel Pick: Hampton (+20)

Game 763-764: North Carolina A&T vs. Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 35.240; Ohio State 73.167
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 38
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 32 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-32 1/2)

Game 765-766: New Mexico State at Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 58.208; Baylor 75.313
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 17
Vegas Line: Baylor by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-13 1/2)

Game 767-768: Winthrop at Auburn (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 50.526; Auburn 62.682
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 12
Vegas Line: Auburn by 9
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-9)

Game 769-770: Grambling State at Washington (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Grambling State 27.900; Washington 70.308
Dunkel Line: Washington by 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 35
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-35)

DAVE COKIN

ARKANSAS STATE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
PLAY: MISSISSIPPI STATE -11.5

Is there such a thing as a good value spot on a double digit favorite? Not very often, but I think one can make a case that Mississippi State might be a bit of a bargain tonight as they host Arkansas State.

The visiting Red Wolves are struggling thus far. Aside from some decent offensive rebounding numbers, this team has been pretty mediocre at almost everything. That’s not a surprise, as Arkansas State returned zero starters from last year’s entry and head coach John Brady is still trying to put together the right combinations in advance of Sun Belt play.

Mississippi State is also having problems, and the Bulldogs are probably going to have a rough go of it in SEC play. But this looks to me to be a spot where there are some fairly compelling reasons to chance laying some lumber with the home team.

It’s the first home game for Mississippi State since November 24 and head coach Rick Ray made no bones about the fact his players are looking forward to finally playing in Starkville. We’re getting the Bulldogs off three straight losses, so I would think there’s very little chance they won’t be focused tonight.

Craig Sword is back in action for the Bulldogs following back surgery that had kept him sidelined for the first seven games. Sword admits that he’s still got a ways to go with his conditioning. But his mere presence on the floor makes Mississippi State a better team. He’s the best player on this roster and Sword’s ability to penetrate should definitely help the Bulldogs increase their offensive efficiency.

This amounts to a right opponent at the right time scenario for a Mississippi State team that really could use a win. It would appear to be a good physical matchup for the Bulldogs and when I think I’m going to get a concerted effort out of a home favorite, I don’t mind giving up some points. That’s the case here and I’m laying it tonight with Mississippi State.

Jesse Schule

Dallas Stars vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Over 5.5

The Canucks started the season as one of the NHL's hottest teams, but they've now lost four in a row. They've conceded 17 goals during that span, and their most recent loss came at home to the New York Rangers by a score of 5-1 on Saturday. Ryan Miller is just 1-4 with a 4.11 GAA in his last five starts, and backup Eddie Lack has been unimpressive all year long. Vancouver will host a Dallas Stars team tonight that has no troubles scoring, but ranks 30th overall allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game. The Stars defeated Vancouver in Dallas by a score of 6-3 in the only previous meeting this season. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, especially in Vancouver where they've seen the total go over in eight of nine. Given the shoddy defense we've seen from both these teams in recent games, we can expect to see a high scoring affair in Van City tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Kevin Thomas

Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Brooklyn Nets +11

Playing back to back the Nets (10-13), travel to Toronto to face the Atlantic division leaders. Toronto (19-6), have dominated the under .500 teams. Raptors were bounced out of the playoffs last year by the Nets. Nets may have something working for them in Plumlee, who replaced Lopez. In his last 3 games he is averaging 16.5 points and 10 rebounds. The Nets are 6-5 on the road. Look for this match-up to be closer then the generous points vegas is giving.

Rob Vinciletti

Orlando vs. Boston
Play: Over 200

This game fits a nice 82% totals system that plays for games to go over the total in the NBA when we have a home favorite of less than 5 like The Celtics with 1 day of rest and are off a road favorite win and cover while scoring 90 or more points, if they are taking on an opponent that lost and failed to cover the spread like Orlando in a game where they scored 90 or less points. The Magic have flown over in 3 of 4 after scoring 85 or less points, while Boston has played over in 11 of 13 off 3 or more games that played under the total and both times this year as a home favorite from -6.5 to -9. Look for the one to go over the total.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat
Pick: Miami Heat

Utah is playing hard for their coach, on a 2-1 spread run, even beating the defending champion Spurs straight up as a +9 dog, 100-96. Miami is a weak home team with a 4-7 record, ranked 24th in the NBA in points scored and 30th in rebounding. Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. It's the second of a back to back spot for both teams, with Miami at Brooklyn last night. Miami is banged up with injuries, with Dwyane Wade (illness) and Chris Bosh both hurting. The news got worse Monday, when Josh McRoberts was diagnosed with a torn meniscus that has ended his season. Second-year center Justin Hamilton, who's started the last three games, could also be held out with a quad injury. The Heat is 5-13 ATS against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

Ben Burns

Ottawa vs. New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey

Both teams should be hungry; both could badly use a victory.

I expect home ice to prove the difference and believe that getting the Devils at this price is providing us with fair value.

Ottawa continues to give up goals in bunches. The Sens have allowed 12 goals over the past three games.

A closer look reveals that the Sens have now allowed a minimum of two goals in 18 straight games.

While most of the wins came in the "Brodeur era," its still worth noting that the Devils are 56-34 (+15.4) their last 90, after losing three or more consecutive games. I like their chances of stopping the bleeding here. Consider New Jersey

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Bryan Power

Detroit vs. Central Florida
Pick: Central Florida

You may recall that I played Central Florida Saturday. They were at home, coming off B2B road losses (Florida St, IL-Chicago), taking on in-state rival Florida Atlantic. The Golden Knights lost, 54-41 as 2.5-point chalk, shooting a woeful 25.5 percent for the game (scored only 15 pts in the second half). The loss kept them winless against the spread for the year (0-5 ATS).

But tonight, they are not only CATCHING points at home, but also catching Detroit in a vulnerable spot. The visiting Titans are off a tough loss to #11 Wichita State on Saturday. That makes them susceptibile to a letdown in my book. They actually led the Shockers at halftime, and by as many as 10 points. But in the end, they lost by nine. Something to keep in mind here is that Detroit's lone "true" road win thus far came by only three points and for it they had to only make a short trip down to Toledo.

It's virtually impossible for UCF not to shoot better than they did in their last game and w/ Detroit being in such a vulnerable spot, my recommendation here would be to take the points.

Scott Spreitzer

Tennessee +5

The Vols started slowly, but have played against top-shelf opposition and just knocked off both Kansas State & Butler. Meanwhile, NC State started off well, but they enter off a couple of shaky performances, including a loss to Wofford in Raleigh. Tennessee plays a decent brand of defense for Donnie Tyndall, holding teams to 41.8% shooting, and catch a Wolfpack team struggling on the offensive end. NC State has been held to 54, 61, and 60 points in three of their last five games. Tennessee is battle tested, so while this is their first true road game of the season, I believe they'll be up to the task. The Vols have already faced VCU, Kansas, Kansas State, and Butler. NC State is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and I'm going against them tonight. I'm taking the points with Tennessee on Wednesday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Portland +5½ over UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels are 6-2 and they are one of the more recognizable mid-major teams in the country. UNLV has won 20 games or more every year since 2007 (including last year’s 20-13 mark) and they are usually one of the favorites to win the Mountain West. That said, this year’s edition of the Rebels is so overvalued, it’s sick and we’re going to attempt to take big advantage of their past pedigree and current misleading record. The Rebels have one pretty good win this year against Temple, 57-50 but the Owls could not make a shot all night. It was simply “one of those games” for the Owls and nothing more. The Rebels could play the Owls 20 more times in a row and wouldn’t hold them below 60, let alone 50. When UNLV played Stanford on November 21, they lost by 29 and against Arizona State on December 3, they lost by 22. The rest of the Rebels victories this season have come against pure cupcakes in Moreland State, Sam Houston State, Albany, South Dakota and Saint Katherine College. UNLV doesn’t return even a single starter from last year’s squad. Not only is there not a single starter coming back, there are no players who scored even as much as seven points per game on the roster. All of UNLV’s stats are extremely skewed due to their weak opponents so pay no attention to their stats. Lastly, the Rebels have #14 Utah and #3 Arizona on deck Saturday and Tuesday respectively so it’s quite possible they overlook this opponent. Even if they don’t, it should not matter.

By contrast, Pilots Coach Eric Reveno returns four of his five starters and seven of his top eight scorers from a year ago. Portland is strong in the backcourt, which is a huge key for upset-minded teams. Portland is four deep at the guard position with all four very capable of making shots. The Pilots two losses this year occurred against Oregon State (in OT) and Valparaiso. Last season, they went just 15-16 but had several very nice victories, including a 82-73 win over #22 Gonzaga. The Pilots are a gritty, competitive team that is projected to finish third or fourth in the tough West Coast Conference behind Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and/or BYU. The Rebels can’t be giving away significant points to a team that is much better than they are especially in an unfavorable situation with two huge games on deck. We’re calling the upset and so we’ll play 1 unit on the PILOTS at +205 and 1½ units on them taking back 5½ points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +113 over NEW JERSEY

OT included. In 16 games this season versus top-16 teams, the Devils have three wins and 13 losses. They have two victories over their past 12 games and one of those occurred against in the Hurricanes in which N.J. was outshot 40-16! Their other victory was against the Maple Leafs when they somehow scored a rare five times. The Devils goal differential of -20 is ahead of only four teams in the NHL (Edmonton, Arizona, Columbus and Buffalo) but the Jackets, who have endured key injuries all year will soon pass the Devils in that category too. The Devils also return home here from a three-game trip and have not played consecutive home games since November 1 & 4, which was 20 games ago. That’s actually incredible, meaning they have been traveling every single game for 20 games in a row. This will be the 21st game in succession that New Jersey has had to board a plane to meet their next opponent. Losing take its toll, traveling takes its toll, not scoring takes its toll and having no fans in the stands isn’t exactly a booster either. The Devils are without Patrick Elias again, not to mention Adam Larsson, who is out with the mumps. Mike Cammallari is a game-time decision.

The Devils are coming off a 5-4 shootout loss to the Sabres. That isn’t very encouraging but we’ll put no weight on it whatsoever because when you score four times on the Sabres you are going to win 19 out of 20 times. The Sens did not play poorly. In fact, they are playing well and have been for a while without the results. We pointed out yesterday that the Ducks have had plenty of “puck luck” with more one-goal wins than any team in the NHL and so regression was forthcoming. Well, the Senators are on the other end of that spectrum. 13 of their 18 losses this season have been by one goal so when their puck luck inevitably changes, ascension will follow. Ottawa’s stock is low with just two victories over their past eight games but they have recent wins over both Vancouver and Boston. Four of their last five losses have also been by one goal to the Pens, the Islanders (twice) and that aforementioned loss to the Sabres with Robin Lehner in net. The Senators will have Craig Anderson back between the pipes tonight and all he’s among the league leaders in save percentage. Ottawa’s chances of winning are greater than the Devils, making them a must play taking back anything.

VANCOUVER -½ +110 over Dallas

Regulation only. As soon as Eddie Lack was named the confirmed starter for the Canucks, our interest in them peaked tremendously. Ryan Miller has been cold as ice while Lack has been consistently solid, not just this year but for as long as he’s been playing at any level. Prior to the Canucks 4-game losing streak, they were one of only two teams in the entire league that had not lost two in a row all season. A grueling schedule and some poor goaltending contributed to Vancouver’s recent woes but they figure to get back on track here. The Canucks have lost five straight to the Stars but they have completely dominated just about every game, outshooting them by counts of 46-28, 33-22, 43-23, 28-26 and 38-30. You simply don’t dominate a team like that every time you play them and keep losing, as the law of averages will eventually catch up. What we know for sure is that the Canucks are hell to play against. Their relentless forecheck is second to none. In fact, they have been so aggressive in their pursuit of the puck that they have had to work on backing off just a bit because of all the odd man rushes it leads to against them. They are a hungry and focused team that is finally rested and raring to go. Vancouver has one of the leagues best records against top-10 teams and now take a big step down in class when facing this disorganized group.

In 19 games versus top-16 teams, Dallas is 5-14. The Stars 68 goals against in 5-on-5 play ranks only ahead of Edmonton and Buffalo. No matter what defensive stat or goaltender stat you look up, Dallas is in the bottom three in all of them. This team is a defensive mess that can’t get out its own way and they don’t have the goaltending to compensate for it. The Stars have allowed five goals against in five of their past seven games. It probably would have been six in seven games had they not played the offensively challenged Devils over that span. New Jersey just managed three goals against them. Dallas is a team that has scorers but so what. They are chasing the game far too often, they have no discipline whatsoever, their penalty killing has been putrid and they are just a unstructured bunch that is going nowhere. Vancouver gets back on track in this one.

Ray Monohan

CS Northridge vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -17.5

Oregon is simply to explosive and fast paced for Cal State Northridge to keep up with. With one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation, Oregon will have a field day with a very poor Cal State Northridge defense. The Ducks will dominate the offensive glass and give themselves many 2nd and 3rd chances in the paint. With bettors seeing Cal State Northridge’s result against Arizona earlier in the season, the line has been knocked down a few points here. We’ll thank them for that and see Oregon roll at home.

Will Rogers

Boston Bruins vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Boston Bruins +130

The Wild have been unable to string together wins lately, alternating wins and losses over their last 11 games. They'll host a Bruins team that has been down on its luck all season long, coming off three straight 3-2 losses, losing the last two in the NHL's post-game skills competition. The Wild's usually so airtight defense has crumbled in recent games, and I like the visitors chances of edging this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Goaltending - Tuukka Rask can not be blamed for the Bruins poor results as of late, stopping a total of 86 shots while allowing six goals during regulation over the last three games. With Rask starting yesterday there is a possibility that the visitors will turn to Johan Svedberg tonight, but the 25 year old Swede has good numbers as well showing a 2.28 GAA for the season and allowed only one goal on 34 shots against the Kings his last start. Darcy Kuemper is day-to-day and the Wild might have to go with their back-up Niklas Backstrom for a second straight day. He's not been fortunate lately, allowing 11 goals over his last three games, four of them in Chicago last night.

2. Post regulation - The Bruins recent misfortune post regulation might lead you to believe that they're at a disadvantage if the game goes to overtime, but I beg to differ. Boston's shootout loss at Nashville last night was their first post-regulation loss for the season away from home, winning three straight prior. The Wild lost to St. Louis their last home game that went beyond regulation.

3. X-Factor - Reilly Smith has four goals and two assists over his last five games. He scored in Nashville last night and is tied with Brad Marchand for the team-lead with eight goals.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -3½

This is a great price to back the Celtics at home, as Boston is a dominant 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with Orlando, including 7-0 in their last 7 at home. The Celtics come in off a dominant 105-87 win at Philadelphia on Monday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Those fresh legs should give them a big edge here against the Magic, who are playing their 2nd straight game on the road and 4th in the last 6 days overall. While the Celtics are just 5-8 at home, Orlando is a mere 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games vs a team with a losing home record.

System - Home teams off a road win against a division rival who are well rested (2nd game in 5 days) are 36-15 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.