Alex Smart
Dallas Stars vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Dallas Stars +150
The Vancouver Canucks are currently in a funk having lost 4 straight, while scoring only 7 goals during their skid . Meanwhile, the Colorado Avs have won 2 of their L/3 including a 4-1 win vs a pretty good Montreal Canadiens team.Dallas is also well rested and with fresh legs and wont be easy to face, as they are 12-4 in their last 16 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Both Vancouver and Colorado have been inconsistent propositions this season, but considering both sides current form, backing the underdog on a value line looks like a viable proposition. The Avs have won 5 straight in this series, and 5 straight vs Pacific division opposition and I'm betting on a 6th consecutive victory here tonight.
Ari Atari
Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Atlanta Hawks +6
I was waiting for the line to move to a +6 to accept the added generosity from the books. Buy a half point up to +6 for anything less than -125. This is not the same Hawks team that got blown out 127-94 a month ago in Cleveland. Jeff Teague with only 5 points, Horford at 12 and Korver with 0 tells a lot. A lot has changed on the defensive end as they now rank 8th overall in points allowed.
Atlanta has won 10 of 11 including a 93-86 win over the Bulls in their last game. Cleveland simply doesn't have the defensive consistency and half-court offense to be given a 6 point handicap over the Hawks. The Cavs are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
2 full days off after this game and only 2 games in 6 days gives the Hawks the green light to attack Cleveland with playoff intensity if needed. The Cavs are grinding after 3 games in 4 nights with day-on/day-off ball in their next 5 games.
Wunderdog
Brooklyn @ Toronto
Pick: Brooklyn +11
You need good defense to contend on the road and Brooklyn has it. They are #10 in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed, plus #11 in points allowed. The Nets are 4-0 ATS against the NBA Atlantic Division, plus they're on a 2-1 SU/ATS run overall. They head to first place Toronto - a team that isn't as strong defensively as you might think. Toronto is ranked #15 in points allowed and #23 in field goal shooting defense, allowing .458% shooting by opponents. And despite getting a lot of points per game on offense the Raptors are ranked #24 in rebounding. This is a good matchup for Brooklyn. The Raptors were eliminated in seven games by Brooklyn in the first round of the playoffs, blowing a 3-2 series lead and losing game seven 104-103 at the Air Canada Centre. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Brooklyn is 3-0-1 ATS here in Toronto. Take the points on Brooklyn.
Rob Veno
Milwaukee at Portland
Play: Portland -9.5
The loss of rookie Jabari Parker leaves a gaping hole in Milwaukee’s starting lineup that’s likely to show up in this contest. A frontcourt that is already minus PF Ersan Ilyasova and C John Henson is now down to just one legitimate paint player in starting C Larry Sanders. Fundamentally it could have been a worse matchup for the Bucks had Portland starting C Robin Lopez not broke his hand Monday night against San Antonio, but still the combination of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and veteran C Chris Kaman could overwhelm Milwaukee inside. Additionally, once Sanders goes to the bench it just might be a party at the rim for all Blazers who want to either penetrate the lane or post up since Milwaukee’s bench is full of finesse players. Portland’s FG% is only middle of the pack this season (45.2%) but that number goes significantly up in this situation. Bucks have been a solid offensive team for Jason Kidd thus far but losing Parker who was getting comfortable as one of the top two offensive options will cause a reshuffling of roles. Doubtful that perimeter based Milwaukee offense can keep pace with Portland and also doubtful that their lack of defensive presence can match up since Blazers FGA% ranks #5 in the league at 43.1%. Number is tall at -9.5 but Portland has been a solid 8-4 ATS at home this year and has enough advantages tonight to at least match that.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnat i/ San Diego State Under 110.5: Question here is, can either team hit 55 points. I will say no. Both of these teams play a very slow brand of ball as they Bearcats come in 289th in shots per game, while the Aztecs are 240th. Both of these teams play excellent defense as the Aztecs are 14th in points allowed, giving up just 55 ppg, while the Bearcats are 8th in points allowed, giving up just 52.8 ppg. on the offensive end of the floor the Bearcats have averaged just 61.2 ppg, while the Aztecs have put up just 62.3 ppg. Both teams are low possession teams and when they do have the ball they don't do a whole lot with it, especially since both teams are poor shooting teams overall, from long range and at the charity stripe. I just can see how there will be enough possessions for either team, against these defenses to put up 111 points. Im not even sure that 100 points will be scored in this one. The Under is 25-10 in San Diego State's last 35 games, while the Under is 44-11 in Cincinnati's last 55 overall and 41-12 in their last 53 non-conference games. 50-48 sounds about right for this one.
Illinois / Hampton Under 140: (Added) The Illini have averaged 92 ppg at home, but i Just can't see them getting near that number tonight vs a Hampton squad that has allowed just 67.6 ppg on the year and is 46th in the nation in defensive FG% (38.2%). Offensively the Pirates have been poor this year, averaging just 64.4 ppg, while shooting just 40.5% from the field, which is 282nd in the nation. On Defense the Illini have been solid, allowing just 65.2 ppg overall and just 63.2 ppg at home. The Under is 10-2 in the Pirate's last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, while the Under is 20-7 in the Fighting Illini's last 27 games following a ATS loss. Very hard to see this one hitting 140+.
BEST OF THE REST
NC State / Tennessee Under 132: (Added) Both teams play a rather slow brand of ball and the Wolfpack is an excellent defensive squad, so I will look to the Under in this one. NC State has averaged 73.9 pgg, but the Vols defense isn't all that bad, allowing just 66.9 ppg on the year. Tennessee is not a good offensive team as they put up just 65.9 ppg, while the Wolfpack have allowed just 59.2 ppg. Both teams are poor from the charity stripe and neither team is good from long range. I see this one staying in the 120s.
LT Profits
Orlando vs Boston
Pick: Orlando +4
The Boston Celtics have beaten the Orlando Magic seven straight times straight up here in Boston, but that’s streak may be in jeopardy in the first meeting between the teams this season. After going dreadful 4-37 on the road last season, the Magic have nearly doubled that entire win total already at 7-11 and they have become very balanced offensively with four players averaging at least 14.4 points. They have also improved defensively, especially on the road where they are allowing 97.7 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting. Conversely the Celtics have taken several steps backwards defensively, ranking 28th out of 30 NBA teams in points against at 105.6 per game, not doing much better at home allowing 105.2 points. They are also lacking depth in the backcourt tonight with guards Marcus Thornton and Marcus Smart likely out. The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
Larry Ness
Stars at Canucks
Pick: Over
Dallas and Vancouver are two teams that are mirror-images of each other as they are combining bad defense with terrible goaltending. The Canucks have lost four straight games after their 5-1 loss in New York to the Rangers on Saturday. Vancouver once again saw its opponent score multiple goals in short spurts as the Rangers opened the game with three goals in the first 6:46 of the game. That usually is an indication of a goaltender playing without much confidence and that certainly looks to be the case for Ryan Miller. The netminder has lost four of his last five games while owning an ugly 4.11 goals-against-average. His save percentage over his last four games is just .837. Facing the Stars will represent another challenge to his psyche has he has lost five straight to this team while allowing 4.35 goals-per-game in those starts. Vancouver has allowed 17 goals during its four losses. While they are are only scoring 2.0 goals-per-game over their last five contests, the Canucks are due for an offensive breakout at anytime with Henrik and Daniel Sedin anchoring their top-line. Despite the recent offensive slump, Vancouver still averages 3.0 goals-per-game. The over is 5-1-1 in the Canucks' last seven games coming off a loss by at least three goals.
Dallas is 11-13-5 this season despite being a good offensive team that scores 2.9 goals-per-game. The problem starts the blue-line which was considered a proverbial "work in progress" entering the season. So far this year, the Stars are allowing 3.6 goals-per-game. Dallas is allowing 3.8 goals-per-game over its last five contests. While the play of the defense has been poor, Kari Lehtonen has been a huge disappointment between the pipes so far this season. After posting a nice 2.41 goals-against-average, Lehtonen has been saddled with a 3.01 goals-against-average along with a .902 save percentage. Over his last four games, that save percentage drops to .886. Now this team starts a three-game road trip where the Stars have played four straight games over the number when away from home.
Bruce Marshall
Magic at Celtics
Pick: Under
Home team won and covered all three meetings last season. Orlando's slightly-improved recent form (3-3 SU, 5-1 vs. line last six thru Dec. 11) and chance that key frontliner Nikola Vucevic will have returned to active duty by tipoff are reasons to suggest that host-oriented series trend might not endure. But Boston offense has found another gear since Ok State rookie Marcus Smart returned from injury, giving Brad Stevens a full bench for the first time since early November, and Celtics did win their last three SU at TD Garden prior to Knicks' visit on Dec. 12, so we'll slightly shade the recent home trend between these sides. Note "unders" 11-3 last 14 Magic games; Celtics "under" 5 of last 6.
Dave Price
Toronto Raptors -11
Brooklyn will be feeling the effects of last night's 95-91 loss to Miami. The Nets haven't responded well following close defeats, going 8-20 ATS the last three seasons after a loss of six points or less. The Raptors will be the fresher side having had yesterday off. They'll also be the hungrier side as they seek revenge for losing a seven-game series to the Nets in last season's playoffs. Toronto has been outstanding at home where it is 12-3. It's seven home wins versus Eastern Conference foes have come by an average of 18.3 points.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing excellent value tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks. Rarely will you get the chance to back the Cavaliers as this small of home favorites all year, and I believe you should take advantage tonight.
Cleveland has certainly been rounding into form after a slow start. It is 9-2 in its last 11 games overall to improve to 14-9 on the season. It has won each of its last six home games by an average of 14.3 points per game.
Atlanta is a team that I have currently as overvalued due to its 17-7 start. It has won 10 of its last 11 games overall coming in, but it couldn't have come against a much softer schedule. Only one of those 10 wins came against a team that currently has a winning record, and the Hawks have only beaten two teams with winning records all season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late. The home team has won five of the last six meetings, and most of those were before Lebron James arrived in Cleveland. James led the Cavaliers to a 127-94 home win over the Hawks in their first meeting of the 2014-15 season back on November 15th. Another blowout in Cleveland's favor can be expected here.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Atlanta is 2-5 in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Trev Rogers
Tennessee-Martin vs. Illinois State
Play: Illinois State -10
Illinois State is a middle of the road team from the MVC, but they continue to improve each week of the CBB season. TN Martin has no where to go but up after multiple 20 loss seasons. Thus far they have been more competitive in 2014, but that looks to be coming to end Wednesday at Illinois State. This will be the 6th straight game away from home for TN Martin. As we see many times with college kids, their attention is focused on finally getting home, not the last game of a road trip. Illinois State will be with out their top play-maker Devaughn Akoon-Purcell for 4-6 weeks, but the 4 returning starters from last season, along with good bench depth, will get us the cover tonight.
Doug Upstone
Northeastern vs. Cal Poly
Play: Cal Poly +3½
Play Against a favorite like NORTHEASTERN in a non-conference game between two teams from mid-major division 1-A conferences, playing with seven or more days rest. What has happened in these instances the favorite plays flat with so much time between games. In this particular case you also add in the travel element for the road favorite. In all, teams like Northeastern are 11-34 ATS the past five seasons losing on average by one digit.
Jimmy Adams
Tennessee vs. NC State
Play: NC State -4½
This is a nice bounce back spot for North Carolina State as they’re coming off of a terrible loss to Wofford on Sunday. The Wolf Pack now have a record of 8-2, and no doubt will be looking to step up their play tonight as they welcome in the Volunteers. Trevor Lacey, Ralston Turner, and Anthony Barber all average double figures for NC State. They’re getting the job done on both ends of the floor. This team can put the ball in the basket, and plays solid defense, especially in the paint. The Wolf Pack are a great rebounding team and I expect this to be a shutdown defense in front of the home crowd tonight, especially with the way they’ve been playing.
As much as it’s a bounce back situation for NCST, this is also a letdown spot for Tennessee. The Volunteers are coming off of a huge home victory over 15th ranked Butler Sunday. The high from that win no doubt has regressed and they now must go into a somewhat hostile atmosphere and try and cover as a small underdog. Tenn does a good job protecting the ball. They often have a hard time scoring for long stretches and are unproven on the road.
Nick Parsons
Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat
Play: Utah Jazz +4
The Heat are a dismal 5-13 ATS against the Western Conference. And when these teams meet the underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Miami is a weak team at home, with a 4-7 record. The heat ranked 24th in the NBA in points scored and 30th in rebounding. Miami is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Both teams are in the second of a back to back spot. Miami is banged up with injuries, with Dwyane Wade (illness) and Chris Bosh both hurting. Josh McRoberts was diagnosed with a torn meniscus that has ended his season. Center Justin Hamilton, who's started the last three games, could also be held out with a quad injury.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Cavaliers -4½
While the Hawks are currently sitting with the 3rd best record in the Eastern Conference at 17-7, I don't think this team is as good as their record would indicate and has them getting too much respect on the road against the Cavaliers. Atlanta has just won just two games all season against a team with a winning record.
With this spread the books are saying that Cleveland would only be roughly a 2-point favorite on a neutral court and I'm just not buying it. Keep in mind the Hawks were a 7-point road underdog at Cleveland back on Nov. 15, a game they lost 94-127. Another big reason for the smaller spread is the Cavs are just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games.
Cleveland has won 6 straight at home and Atlanta is 5-5 on the road compared to 12-2 at at home. The Hawks are also in a tough scheduling spot, as this will be their 7th game in the last 11 days and they used a lot of energy in their 93-86 home win over Chicago on Monday.
The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%, while the Hawks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.