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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 2,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Illinois (4-2, 1-4 ATS) at (18) Clemson (6-1, 2-3 ATS)

Having dropped out of the Top 25 following back-to-back losses, the Illini look to get back on track when they invade Littlejohn Coliseum for an ACC/Big Ten challenge matchup with Clemson.

Illinois sprinted out to a 4-0 start, all of them double-digit home wins over inferior competition. But the Illini finally stepped up in class at the Las Vegas Invitational over the weekend and lost on consecutive days to Utah (60-58 as a 7½-point favorite) and Bradley (72-68 as an eight-point chalk). Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined outings dating to last season, including 0-3 ATS in the last three.

The Tigers entered last week’s 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif., with a 4-0 record, then suffered their first loss of the season – 69-60 to Texas A&M as a six-point chalk on Thursday – before rebounding with wins over Long Beach State (87-79 on Friday) and 12th-ranked Butler (70-69 on Sunday). However, Clemson – which made two free throws with 3.3 seconds left to beat Butler – failed to cover as a favorite in all three of those tournament contests, dropping to 2-6 ATS in its last eight lined outings.

These teams met last year in Illinois, and the Tigers stole a 76-74 win as a one-point road underdog. Including two upset wins by the Illini in 1997 and 1998, the ‘dog has won outright in three straight meetings between these schools.

Aside from a solid 28-13-2 run in Wednesday contests, Illinois is in the midst of ATS droughts of 1-6 overall, 1-6 in non-conference play, 2-5 on the road, 1-4 against the ACC and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Clemson has cashed in five of seven against the Big Ten, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 2-6 overall (all non-conference games), 1-4 at home, 0-4 after a non-cover and 0-7 versus winning opponents.

The under is on stretches of 5-2 for the Illini versus the ACC, 8-2 for the Illini on Wednesday, 11-3 for Clemson at home and 5-1 for Clemson in non-conference action. Conversely, Illinois has topped the total in four straight games overall, while the over is 6-2 in the Tigers’ last eight against the Big Ten and their last eight on Wednesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON

Minnesota (4-2, 2-3 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (7-0, 2-1 ATS)

The Hurricanes face by far their toughest challenge this season when they entertain Minnesota at the BankUnited Center in South Beach in another ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest.

The Gophers are coming off consecutive upset losses to Portland (61-56 as an 8½-point favorite) and Texas A&M (66-65 as a 5½-point choice) in last weekend’s 76 Classic in Anaheim, Calif. After netting 81.8 ppg in its first four games (all victories), Minnesota averaged just 60.5 ppg in the two losses in Anaheim while shooting just 35.9 percent from the field. The Gophers continue to play strong defense, though, giving up just 57.2 ppg (35.8 percent shooting)

Miami has taken full advantage of a cupcake schedule, ripping off seven straight wins to begin the season, with six coming by 15 points or more. In their most recent lined outing – and against their only tough opponent so far – the Hurricanes clobbered South Carolina 85-70 as a 2½-point underdog in a neutral-site contest. Miami has scored at last 70 points in six of its seven games, and only the Gamecocks managed to score more than 60 points against the ‘Canes, who are yielding just 56 ppg (38.4 percent).

This is the first meeting between these schools.

Minnesota is riding a slew of negative ATS streaks, including 6-15 overall in lined action, 1-9 on the road, 2-7 versus the ACC and 4-10 after a SU loss. The ‘Canes are on positive pointspread upticks of 4-2 at home and 18-5 in non-league games, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight against Big Ten opponents.

The under is on runs of 4-1 for Miami overall, 4-1 for Miami at home, 4-1 for Minnesota against the ACC, 5-1 for Minnesota on Wednesday and 12-5 for Minnesota after a SU defeat.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI (FLA.) and UNDER

(6) Duke (6-0, 4-1 ATS) at Wisconsin (4-1, 2-2 ATS)

Fresh off a dominating victory over UConn in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game in New York, Duke now looks to improve to 11-0 all-time in the ACC/Big Ten challenge when it makes its first ever trip to the Kohl Center in Wisconsin.

The Blue Devils rode their defense to another Preseason NIT championship last weekend, manhandling Arizona State (64-53 as a 10-point favorite) and UConn (68-59 as a 3½-point chalk). In the title-game win, Duke was putrid from the field, shooting 29.2 percent, but it held the Huskies to 36.1 percent shooting. For the season, the Blue Devils are yielding just 58.2 ppg on 35.7 percent shooting, with four of their last five opponents failing to crack the 60-point mark.

Wisconsin is back in action for the first time since wrapping up play in the Maui Invitational eight days ago. The Badgers went 2-1 (1-2 ATS) in the tournament for a third-place finish, sandwiching victories over Arizona (65-61 as a 5½-point favorite) and Maryland (78-69 as a two-point underdog) around a loss to eventual tournament-champion Gonzaga (74-61 as a two-point chalk).

Last year in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Duke crushed then-No. 9 Purdue 76-60 as a two-point road underdog. Not only are the Blue Devils a perfect 10-0 in the made-for-TV event – including 3-0 on the road – but they’ve held their last three Big Ten foes to 60 points or less. That includes an 82-58 dismantling of Wisconsin in 2007 as a 9½-point home chalk, the only recent meeting between these schools. Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six against the Big Ten.

The Badgers are just 4-6 SU in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge (3-1 at home), though they upended of Virginia Tech 74-72 as a three-point underdog last December, improving to 8-1 ATS in their last nine against ACC competition (the lone non-cover coming at Duke two years ago). Wisconsin has also covered in 11 of its lat 14 on Wednesday, but is otherwise in ATS downturns of 0-6 after a SU win, 0-4 after a non-cover and 2-8 against winning teams.

For Duke, the under is on runs of 7-2 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win, 17-5 after an ATS triumph and 35-17 on Wednesday, while Wisconsin has stayed low in nine of 12 overall, seven of eight after a SU win and 22 of 28 after a spread-cover. However, the over is 6-1 in the Badgers’ last seven against the ACC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER

(21) Florida State (6-1, 2-2 ATS) at (15) Ohio State (5-1, 4-2 ATS)

Two ranked teams riding three-game win streaks duke it out at Value City Arena in Columbus, where the Buckeyes host Florida State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

The Seminoles captured the Old Spice Classic championship in Orlando with Sunday’s 57-56 victory over Marquette as a one-point underdog, rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit. They won all three games in the tournament – also knocking off Iona and Alabama – despite scoring just 54, 60 and 57 points, but the defense stepped up, yielding just 52 ppg. Since opening the season by tallying 87, 80 and 89 points, Florida State has averaged a paltry 55.8 ppg in its last four games.

Ohio State followed up its only loss of the season (77-73 to North Carolina in the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden) with three straight wins. First, the Buckeyes topped Cal 76-70 as a 3½-point favorite in the 2K Sports Classic consolation game, then came home and destroyed Lipscomb (84-64, coming up short as a 28-point chalk) and St. Francis-Pennsylvania (110-47, covering as a 35½-point favorite). Thad Matta’s squad has alternated spread-covers in its last five games.

The schools last met in 2000, with Ohio State rolling to a 90-65 victory as a seven-point favorite.

Going back to last year, the Seminoles are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 road games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday affairs, while Ohio State is on pointspread surges of 7-3 overall, 16-6 in non-conference play and 5-2 after a SU win, but the Buckeyes are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine versus ACC competition.

Florida State carries “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 4-1 after a SU win, but the over has cashed in five of its last seven against the Big Ten and five straight on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the under is 7-3 in Ohio State’s last 10 after a SU victory, but the total has alternated in the Buckeyes’ last 12 games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

NBA

Phoenix (14-4, 11-7 ATS) at Cleveland (12-5, 8-9 ATS)

The Suns will attempt to bounce back from last night’s ugly loss in New York as they conclude a four-game road trip with a visit to Quicken Loans Arena, where they will battle LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Phoenix took a four-game SU and ATS winning streak into Madison Square Garden on Tuesday and left with a 126-99 loss as a 7½-point road favorite. It was the first time all season and the first time in their last 21 games that the Suns failed to score at least 100 points. Phoenix, which had won its previous four games over Detroit, Memphis, Minnesota and Toronto by margins of 19, 25, 15 and 25 points, still leads the NBA in scoring at 111.3 ppg. It has also still reached the century mark in 52 of the last 59 contests, tallying 109 or more 38 times.

Cleveland followed up Friday’s 94-87 loss at Charlotte with Saturday’s 111-95 rout of the Mavericks, covering as a 9½-point home chalk. Since dropping its first two games of the season the Cavaliers have won 12 of their last 15, reaching triple digits nine times during this stretch. Cleveland has been playing solid defense of late, too, allowing an average of 92.6 ppg in the last five after a four-game stretch in which it yielded 105.8 ppg.

The Cavaliers swept the season series from Phoenix last year, winning 109-92 as a nine-point home favorite and 119-111 as a 4½-point road chalk, and those two victories ended Phoenix’s 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry. The favorite has cashed in nine straight head-to-head clashes, the home team is on a 7-3 ATS run and the SU winner has covered the spread in 11 consecutive meetings.

Despite Tuesday’s upset defeat in New York, the Suns are on ATS hot streaks of 10-5 overall (4-1 last five), 6-3 on the road and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference, but they’re just 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Cavs have covered just three times in their last eight games – all as a favorite – alternating spread-covers in their last five, and they’re also in ATS funks of 1-4 at home and 3-7 against Pacific Division foes. On the positive side, Cleveland is on ATS upticks of 6-0 against winning teams, 10-3 when coming off three or more days’ rest and 5-2 versus the Western Conference.

Phoenix is on “under” runs of 5-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 on the road and 4-1-1 against Eastern Conference opponents, but the over is 35-16-1 in their last 52 versus the Central Division and 24-8 in their last 32 on Wednesday. Cleveland carries “over” streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 4-1 against Pacific Division opponents, 5-1 on Wednesday and 4-0 after three or more days of rest. Finally, eight of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry have topped the total, including the last five in a row at Quicken Loans Arena.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Houston (9-8, 10-7 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (8-10, 7-11 ATS)

The Clippers try for their first three-game winning streak of the season when they welcome the Rockets to Staples Center for a Western Conference clash.

Houston has been struggling with consistency since a 3-1 start to the season, going 6-7 SU in its last 13 games. However, the Rockets snapped their first two-game SU slide and three-game ATS slump of the year with Sunday’s 100-91 upset victory over the Thunder as a three-point road underdog. Rick Adelman’s squad has won five of eight on the road, going 6-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in the last four.

Los Angeles has rebounded from a 4-9 start to the campaign by winning four of its last five, including consecutive wins and covers in its last two – Friday’s 104-96 victory in Detroit as a 3½-point road underdog and Sunday’s 98-88 rout of Memphis as a 3½-point home favorite. The Clippers have held five straight opponents under 100 points (91.2 ppg average, 43.2 percent field-goal defense), and during their current 4-1 SU surge they’ve won three in a row at home (2-1 ATS).

Houston took three of four from the Clippers last season and has won eight of the last nine meetings while going 6-2 ATS (all as a favorite). L.A.’s one victory over the Rockets last year came at home (95-82 as a four-point underdog), ending Houston’s 4-0 SU and ATS run at the Staples Center. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the visitor has gotten the money in 19 of the last 26.

Along with their 4-0 ATS run on the highway, the Rockets have cashed in four of five on Wednesday and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 when going on two days of rest and 6-2 ATS in their last eight versus losing teams. Los Angeles is mired in ATS slumps of 19-39 overall, 21-44 at home, 9-25 against Western Conference opponents, 7-21 against teams from the Southwest Division, 13-38 after a SU win and 1-5 on Wednesday.

The over is 7-1 in Houston’s last eight games after a SU victory and 8-1 in its last nine after a spread-cover, but the Clippers sport “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 4-0 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 when coming off two days’ rest. Finally, the under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these teams in Hollywood.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:28 am
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Frank Jordan
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New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -13.5
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The Knicks out ran the Phoenix Suns Tuesday night which is hard to believe anyone could, but not so surprising when it is Mike D'Antoni who was coaching the Knicks formally of the Suns. The Knicks scored 29 or more points in each of the first three quarters including 39 in the first to set the tone. With the win the Knicks go to 4-19, however they also go to first place Orlando tonight. Orlando as mentioned is in first place with a 14-4 record are 6-2 at home and have won each of their last three games. When you have to play two 14 win and just 4 loss teams back to back it doesn't seem fair so it was wise to use up most of the energy to get the first game at home. However that doesn't leave much for the road game, but a split is all one could really ask. Look for the Magic to dominate a tired worn down Knick team by feeding Dwight Howard all night. Play Orlando

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:50 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Utah U vs. Weber State
Play: Utah U -1.5

Utah has controlled the series the last few years winning 10 of the 12 games. The Utes are a solid 13-3 vs losing teams and 35-10 when installed as a favorite over the past few years. They have better shhoting numbers than Weber.St on both offense and defense. Weber.St is 1-4 in their last 5 non conference games and have not fared well when taking on Mountain West Conference teams they have a lousy 4-21 record including 0-7 the last few years. Lets lay the small number here with Utah tonight.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:50 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
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The Bucks battle the Wizards in the nation's capitol Wednesday night knowing they are 9-3 ATS on this floor. They are also 4-0 SU and ATS the last four games in this series. With Washington just 1-7 SU and ATS as a favorite in games off a SU underdog win, we'll grab the points with Milwaukee here tonight.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:51 am
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BIG AL
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New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
Prediction: New York Knicks
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These two teams are mirror opposites of each other. Orlando has a 14-4 record, and has won 11 of its last 14 games. In contrast, the Knicks are 4-14, and have dropped 11 of their last 14 games. But New York did blow out the Phoenix Suns 126-99 last night (and that was a big winner for us, as we had a 3* play on the Knicks). Off that win, we'll play on the Knicks to follow thru with a 2nd consecutive strong game, as road dogs of more than 9 points are a solid 68-45 ATS off a win of 20+ points, including 22-5 ATS when playing without rest vs. a foe off a win. Take the points.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:52 am
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JIM FEIST

INDIANA PACERS / SACRAMENTO KINGS
TAKE: SACRAMENTO KINGS

Second game of a 4-game trip for the Pacers out West, a long way from home. They are struggling mightily on a 1-6 SU/ATS run. Defense is the main problem, allowing 102 ppg, 21st overall. Sacramento has excellent long range ability, shooting 38% from beyond the arc (5th best in the NBA), and Indiana is one of the weakest at defending the trey. The Kings average 104.6 ppg overall (5th best) and have been hot, on a 3-0 SU/ATS run against defenseless teams. They get another one here. Play the Kings!

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:53 am
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EZWINNERS
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Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -2
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The Sacramento Kings continue to get very little respect from the odds makers in Vegas. This is a very short line considering how well Sacramento is playing on their home court. I don't think anyone would have expected the Kings to win seven of their first nine home games, but that is exactly what they have done. Indiana on the other hand is a work in progress and they have only won two games on the road this season. The Pacers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and that defense only gets worse on the road. Lay the points with a Kings team that is flying under the radar.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 8:54 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Texas Christian -1 at SOUTHERN METHODIST

I gave Michigan State too much credit Tuesday against North Carolina, and paid the price for it. But I'm still 17-6 over my last 23 complimentary selections, and I'm returning to college hoops to get back on track today!

Texas Christian has been a bettor's dream in its last 11 games vs. Southern Methodist, going 10-1 ATS, including 4-1 in their last five games at SMU.

The Mustangs have yet to cover the spread this season, but have played only two lined games. They were defeated by South Florida and Texas A&M, failing to cover in either game, before beating Florida Gulf Coast and Huston Tillotson.

I really don't know anything about Huston Tillotson, other than it is an NAIA school, but I do know that a Division I team such as SMU should beat it by more than four points. And the Mustangs also were tied at the half against Florida Gulf Coast of the lowly Atlantic Sun Conference before winning by 17.

TCU has played against much stronger opponents, such as Arizona State and Nebraska, and should be the better for it. It also has a better offense than SMU does, averaging 75.7 points per game and plays tougher defense.

The Horned Frogs have a solid inside-outside offensive attack, led by guards Ronnie Moss (19.1 points per game) and Edvinas Ruzgas (14.1 ppg), and forward Zvonko Buljan (13.1 ppg, 10.7 rebounds per game).

SMU is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Take TCU to cover the points tonight in gaining a road victory.

3♦ TCU

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 9:25 am
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Bobby Maxwell

San Diego State +1' at USD

I'm 18-9 with my last 27 FREE plays and tonight I'm delivering a winner on the college hardwood as I go with San Diego State taking on city rival USD.

This city rivalry seems to always go San Diego State’s way lately. So I’m going with the big brother Aztecs to get the best of the Toreros tonight.

San Diego State has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and six of the last seven in this series and gotten progressively better the last three years. The Aztecs won by three in 2006, five in 2007 and by 11 last year. The impressive win was in 2007 when they went into the Jenny Craig Pavilion on the USD campus and beat the Toreros by five as a 3 ½-point favorite. And that USD team went on to be the darlings of the Big Dance.

The Aztecs’ Malcolm Thomas is the real deal. He put up 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in their last game out – a win over Northern Arizona – and he’ll tear up USD as well. In their two home games, San Diego State has crushed Santa Clara 86-53 as an 11-point favorite and destroyed Northern Arizona 89-48 as a 16-point chalk. Throw in a road win in Fresno and this team has the ability to win some big games this season.

San Diego State is 8-3 ATS after a spread-cover while the Toreros are just 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite. Play the Aztecs in this one.

3♦ SAN DIEGO STATE

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 9:26 am
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Joseph D'Amico

California vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -3½

The Lobo's are a perfect 6-0 both SU and ATS this year. They have covered such big numbers of 15, 21, 12, and 13 1/2. All 5 starters are good enough to put up DD"s on offense. The Golden Bear's are 4-2. Their 2 losses were both to quality teams. Cal lost 95-73 to Syracuse and 76-70 to Ohio State. each time they play a strong team, they fold. The squad is very banged-up with 4 players listed as questionable for tonights matchup. The Lobo's are 5-0 ATS their L5 at home, 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. the Pac 10, and 20-8 ATS their L28 overall. The Golden Bear's are 1-5 ATS their L6 as a road 'dog, 0-4 ATS their L4 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600, and 3-9 ATS their L12 overall. New Mexico covers.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 10:03 am
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SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +1.70 over BOSTON

In a year in which parity has never been higher it only makes sense to take back a tag like this on the Lightning or even against the Bruins. In fact, the Bolts have one less loss this season than the Bruins and even though Boston is currently on a 5-1 run, they could just as easily be on a 1-5 run. You see, five of the Bruins’ last six games have gone to overtime and seven of its past nine games have gone to OT as well. What that tells us is that they’re not putting away anyone and just about every game they’re in is a toss-up. Thus, as stated earlier and with that in mind, taking back +1.70 only makes sense. The Bolts are not an easy team to beat and the league’s elite hasn’t exactly pushed Boston to OT. Both Minnesota and Florida took the B’s to extra time, as did Buffalo, Atlanta and Ottawa among others. Overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +1.70 (Risking 2 units).

Vancouver +1.09 over NEW JERSEY

It’s really incredible that the Devils own a 17-6 record when you consider how tough every team is to beat these days. On paper, the Devils should not be this good and when you consider the injuries they’ve sustained, especially to key defensemen, it makes that record even more impressive. With that impressive record and a current three-game winning streak, the Devils stock is a little too high right now. Prior to its three game winning streak the Devils had dropped three in a row so it’s not like they’re on fire. They beat the Islanders, Ottawa and Boston but lost to Dallas, Nashville and Philly and these Canucks are definitely not an easy out. Vancouver will embark on a four-game road trip starting here after being at home since November 20. That has to be good for them and it’s also worth noting that Steve Yzerman and the Team Canada selection committee will attend this one, thus, you can expect a high-intensity game, specifically from both goaltenders and when Roberto Luongo is at his best, he is the best. Play: Vancouver +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 10:12 am
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JACK JONES

Ohio State -6

With all 5 starters back this season, head coach Thad Matta has perhaps the best team he has had since taking over at Ohio State. The numbers the Buckeyes are putting up are staggering as Ohio State is scoring 85.8 points/game and allowing 60.3 points/game for an average win of 25.5 points/game. Their lone loss came on a neutral court to North Carolina, 73-77, but that showing proves that the Buckeyes aren't far from being one of the best team in the nation this year. Florida State has a solid team this year, but the Seminoles have really only had one true test, and that came at Florida where they lost 52-68. This will actually be a tougher challenge for FSU tonight. Ohio State is 11-2 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. The Buckeyes are shooting a ridiculous 52.2% from the floor and allowing their opponents to shoot 37.3% this season. Take Ohio State.

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 3:36 pm
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Rocketman

Utah @ Weber State
Play: Utah -1.5

Utah is 3-3 overall this year while Weber State is 1-4 overall on the season. Utah is 35-10 SU as a favorite the past 3 years. Utah is 10-2 SU overall vs Weber State since 1997 including 5-1 SU at Weber State since 1997. Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. Utes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 4:38 pm
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Karl Garrett

Pittsburgh at DUQUESNE +6

Battle for the Steel City bragging rights tonight, as Pittsburgh takes on a dangerous Duquesne team.

The Iron Dukes bring back 4 starters from last year's 21-13 team, and they certainly appear to be ready to give the Panthers a game for the full 40 minutes tonight at the Mellon Arena.

Pittsburgh has won 8 straight in this city-series, covering in 5 of the 8, but the Panthers have definitely been a money-burner recently, going 1-9-1 against the spread their last 11 games on line.

Duquesne is off to a 5-1 start, and while the outright may not come to fruition this evening, the G-Man fully expects the Iron Dukes to be there ALL the way against the Panthers.

Take the points!

5♦ DUQUESNE

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 4:39 pm
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Jeff Benton

Saint Louis +2' at GEORGIA

Hope you took advantage of Tuesday's free-play college basketball winner on Virginia Tech -- my fourth freebie winner in the last five days! For Wednesday’s free play, I’ll head back to college basketball and take the points with Saint Louis against Georgia.

Saint Louis is coming off consecutive double-digit losses to Iowa State (65-54) and Notre Dame (64-52) in the Chicago Invitational Challenge, but Iowa State and Notre Dame are quality teams. Georgia is not. The Bulldogs are in year two of a rebuilding process, and that process is moving along at a snail’s pace. Already this season, Georgia has lost to Wofford at home (60-57), got destroyed at UAB (72-56) and barely beat Jacksonville State (67-64) in its most recent game at home Friday.

The Bulldogs didn’t cover as an 11-point favorite against Jacksonville State and is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games (0-3 ATS as a favorite), 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 1-5 ATS in its last six as a favorite of up to 6½ points. Conversely, the Billikens are on ATS runs of 7-3 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-0 ATS as an underdog of less than seven points.

Also, contrary to Georgia, Saint Louis is starting to see tangible results under quality coach Rick Majarus. The Billikens closed last season by winning seven of their last 12 games (10-3 ATS in their last 13) and prior to last weekend’s Chicago Invitational, they had begun this season with four straight wins, including a 14-point rout of Nebraska as a two-point home underdog.

Bottom line: Don’t be confused by the names on the front of the jerseys in this one – Saint Louis right now is a better basketball program than Georgia, and to be getting points in this spot is a steal.

4♦ SAINT LOUIS

 
Posted : December 2, 2009 4:39 pm
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