Jordan Runco
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Dallas Mavericks
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Dallas (8-9 SU, 7-10 ATS) is coming off a 92-77 win over Detroit on Dec. 1, while the LA Clippers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) is coming off a 105-104 win over Utah on the road laying 2 on Dec. 3. The Mavs visit the Staples Center on Wednesday at 10:30pm to play the Clippers.
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ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed the Clippers as a 8.5-point favorite over the Mavericks. The total is 198.5 in most books.
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LINE MOVEMENT: The Clippers opened as a 9-point favorite and moved to 8.5 in most books. The total started at 199 and moved to 198.5 in most books.
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NBA FREE PICK: Take Dallas According to latest NBA Trends, Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles, 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. L.A. Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
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Dallas may not have Dirk Nowitzki (knee), but they do feature a pair of former Clippers big men in Elton Brand and Chris Kaman. This will be Kaman's first road game against the team he spent his first eight seasons with before being traded to New Orleans in the blockbuster deal that brought Chris Paul to the Clippers before last season. O.J. Mayo has really taken over for Nowitzki, averaging 20.2 points. Expect the Mavs to keep this one close as the Clippers have been an erratic team. They won three straight games going into the Mavs matchup, but that's after losing four straight.
DAVID BANKS
Dallas Mavericks +8
The Los Angeles Clippers (11-6, 9-8 ATS) are a perfect 3-0 straight up since Chauncey Billups returned to make his seasonal debut, and they look to make it four straight vs. the Dallas Mavericks (8-9, 7-10 ATS) at the Staples Center Wednesday at 10:30 ET on ESPN. The Mavericks are reeling without their injured superstar Dirk Nowitzki, who is not recuperating as quickly as they had hoped following arthroscopic knee surgery before the season began.
The Clippers began this season playing like the best team in basketball, at one point ranking in the top three in the NBA in both field goal percentage and field goal percentage allowed. That was until a 117-111 loss in what was supposed to be a statement game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder sent the Clippers spiraling on a four game losing streak. That streak was halted in Billups' first game appearance on November 28th vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves since tearing his Achilles early last season, and Los Angeles has not lost since. Granted Billups has not done much yet, averaging 7.3 points and just 2.3 assists through three games, but his veteran leadership has brought a calming influence to an otherwise young team, and it will only be a matter of time until he contributes on the stat sheet. Until then, the Clippers will just have to continue to win ugly, which they are quite capable of doing with a defense that is still allowing only 95.2 points per game.
The Mavericks have been very erratic without Nowitzki's scoring in the lineup, although they did snap a three-game losing streak with a 92-77 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. That game was at home though and Dallas is just 2-6 on the road where it is averaging a lowly 93.2 points per game. The Mavs do not grade out disgustingly bad overall offensively, ranking 10th in the NBA in scoring at 98.8 points per game and 12th in field goal percentage at 44.5 percent, but this is a team that has had severe home vs. away splits, with that field goal percentage plummeting all the way down to 41.7 percent away from home. Lately it has not mattered where the Mavericks have played, as they have now gone four consecutive games without reaching 100 points with those game split evenly with two games each home and away, and Dallas is averaging a measly 89.3 points over this period with the 'under' going 3-1.
Speaking of the 'under', it is 12-4 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these teams here in Los Angeles, as well as a perfect 8-0 in the last eight Dallas games vs. teams with winning overall straight up records. Now the Clippers did win 103-102 in their last game at Utah, but the 'under' is 6-2 in the Clippers' last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Ian Cameron
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Boise State at Utah
Play: Boise State
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Boise State has been an ATS machine in recent games. The Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS and all those old problems of not being able to win games and cover pointspreads on the highway may just be a thing of the past. Boise State took Michigan State down to the wire in East Lansing in a 74-70 loss, easily covering as 15-point road underdogs. In an early season shocker, Boise State took down Creighton in Omaha by 13 points as 13-point road dogs. And in their last game, there was no letdown for the Broncos who demolished Seattle on the road 87-64 as 9-point road chalk.
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Boise State is led by the backcourt duo of Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks who have combined for 34.6 ppg this season on a Broncos team that can flat out score at will. Boise State has scored no less than 70 points in all but one of those games including topping the 80-point mark four times including in that whopping upset at Creighton. Utah's defensive numbers look good at 34% FG defense but look at the schedule which has been littered with nothing but patsies and weak offensive squads: Willamette, Sacramento State, Idaho State, Central Michigan, Wright State, SMU and Texas State. That is a laundry list of teams that struggle to score and this will be a major step up in class for the Utes to hold down this potent Boise State scoring machine.
Teddy Covers
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Tennessee vs. Virginia
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Tennessee does not play well at a slowdown pace. The Vols just lost to Georgetown in a game where they held the Hoyas to 37 points on 36% shooting. Their other loss this year came against another ‘slow-it-down’ defensive minded team, Oklahoma State; a game where the Vols were held to 46 points on 26% shooting.
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Tony Bennett’s Virginia team won 22 games last year by virtue of their defensive mindset, but their potential was cut short by three key injuries and a pair of defections from the program, leading to a Big Dance exit in their first tourney game. This year’s Cavaliers squad has been dominant through the first month of play, reeling off five consecutive wins and covers since a pair of tight losses in the first week of the season.
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Virginia is deeper than Tennessee. They play defense better than Tennessee does. The Cavs hit their free throws; the Vols don’t. And the Cavs have held every opponent to 64 points or less, while Tennessee hasn’t won a game yet this year where they didn’t get to 75. Virginia isn’t likely to win pretty, but they should win this one by enough of a margin to cash our bets! Take Virginia.
Andre Gomes
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Warriors / Pistons Over 192
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Golden State has been very competitive lately, as their guards has been playing very well. The Warriors have been very good on pick and roll ball handler plays, as they have just 0.82 PPP on these plays for the season, but the numbers go up to 0.98 PPP over the last six games! Their recent numbers on spot ups (0.99 season vs 1.05 L6), pick and roll roll man plays (0.90 season vs 1.03 L6), 16-23 feet shooting (0.43 eFG% season vs 0.45 eFG% L6) and 3pts shooting (0.52 eFG% season vs 0.60 eFG% L6).also show their recent offensive improvement. At the same time, both David Lee and Carl Landry keep playing very well, so Golden State is right now a good offensive team.
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They will face a Pistons defense that is #19 on pick and roll ball handler plays, #30 on post ups and #3 on spot ups defense. Their perimeter defense is looking very well on paper and they have allowed just 77, 90, 92 and 79 points over their last four games, however this was achieved mostly due to the poor spots of their opponents in these games. Phoenix were dead tired after going to overtime at Cleveland, on a back to back spot for them plus it was their third game in four games. Memphis played without Mike Conley and they lack a good outside shooting. Dallas is on a major funk right now, while Cleveland was coming from a double overtime game against Portland. Even though Detroit has been defending well, I believe Golden State's good offense won't have a lot of troubles in putting a decent number of points on the Pistons tonight.
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Detroit's offense is completely based on their rim shooting, as 41% of their shots are at the rim. They have a high turnover rate (16.5% TO rate, just like Golden State), however both teams also don't put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler, as Golden State is #28 in opposing TO rate with 14.0% and Detroit is #24 with 14.6%. So, both teams won't struggle with turnovers tonight, therefore this is a good offensive spot for both teams. Golden State doesn't have a good rim defense (#19 with 65% FG allowed), while the Pistons are also quite good on their cuts, with Tayshaun Prince and Kyle Singler penetrating well into the basket. The Warriors are #24 in cuts defense with 1.24 PPP allowed, so I believe Detroit will have success on their cuts tonight.
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I expect both teams to have good offensive games tonight, as Golden State is playing very well on offense, while Detroit with this new starting lineup that replaced Rodney Stuckey with Kyle Singler is also much better on offense. I believe this will be a high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Steve Janus
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Atlanta Hawks -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta is showing some incredible value as a small home favorite tonight. While the Hawks were recently upset at home by the Cavaliers 111-113, they are a respectable 5-3 on their home floor this season. The Nuggets are a completely different team when playing on the road. Denver is 5-1 at home this season, but just 4-8 on the road.
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The Hawks won't have any trouble matching the Nuggets up tempo attack tonight, as they will be playing for the first time in five days. This Atlanta team had won six straight prior to that loss to the Cavs and will be extremely motivated to get back to their winning ways.
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Atlanta is a solid 39-22 ATS (64%) in home games after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home since 1996. They are also a respectable 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs the Western Conference.
Jimmy Boyd
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Milwaukee Bucks +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs are being overvalued here against a hungry Milwaukee team that typically plays them tough.
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We can count on the Bucks leaving it all on the floor this evening following an ugly 102-81 loss at New Orleans in their last game. We can also count on them taking the floor with plenty of confidence considering how tough they've played the Spurs in recent years.
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Milwaukee won the most recent meeting and has won or lost by fewer than nine points in 10 of the last 13 meetings. The Bucks are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio. We'll bet the Bucks.
Mike Lineback
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Los Angeles LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans only two wins verses struggling Milwaukee & LA Clips their L11 games. Normally, would leave this game alone, given Lakers coming off two disappointing losses to Orlando & Houston. In addition, LA playing b2b & 3 games in 4 nights. However, IMO, this puts the visitors in a desperate/must-win type situation, which leads me to believe LA will come with their best effort tonight. If anything, they should get off to a fast start. Los Angeles have won 6 straight in this series.
Timothy Black
GONZAGA vs. WASHINGTON STATE
PLAY: WASHINGTON STATE
Gonzaga is just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and they're only 1-5 ATS in the last 6 visits to Washington State. Besides dominating the Zags at home, the Cougars are currently on a win streak of 6 straight ATS in their last 6 home games and they're 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Look for a low scoring game, where it will be difficult for either team to see a double digit margin, especially Washington State on their home court where they are 5-0 on the year.
Charlie Sports
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Portland Trailblazers at Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana PacersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The (8-10) Portland Trailblazers of the NBA Western Conference Northwest division will take on the (9-9) Indiana Pacers of the Eastern Conference Central division in 2012 NBA action. The Pacers have covered the last 3 vs. Portland and the under has came in the last 4 times the teams have played. Portland have won their last 2 straight up and Against The Spread on the road. The Pacers have won 3 of their last 4 straight up and ATS. Indiana gets the home cover.
Scott Delaney
Tonight my free play is on the San Jose Spartans catching points at UC Davis, as they look to go over .500 after an 82-74 win at Montana State last Saturday. Now 3-3 on the season, the Spartans should be able to pull off the outright win over the Aggies, even with this one being inside The Pavilion in Davis, Calif.
What this ultimately comes down to is a showdown between two of the top-20 scorers in the nation with the Spartans’ James Kinney at 22.8 per game and the Aggies’ Corey Hawkins at 21.4 per game. And personally I like the looks of San Jose with Kinney and his supporting staff rather than all the Aggies, who are 1-4 on the season.
UC Davis comes in after losing at Idaho, 73-66, this past Saturday night, and as of now the Aggies' only win of the season came at Sacramento State, 87-76, on November 20. That's not impressive enough for me to believe they should be favored over San Jose State.
I'm taking a shot here with much better Spartans in this one.
2♦ SAN JOSE STATE
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner tonight is going to be on the Colorado State Rams, catching points in Boulder against intra-state rival Colorado. The Buffaloes may be laying the points in this game, but I think Colorado State is in better shape to win this one, despite having to make a 47-mile drive to Colorado's Coors Events Center for this annual rivalry showdown.
Colorado State comes in after defeating Evansville, 79-72, at home in their most recent outing, while the Buffs are in after a 76-69 road loss to Wyoming. And what Colorado may not realize about this Rams team this year, is with an experienced roster with seven letterwinners back from the 2011-12 season, they also are under the direction of new head coach Larry Eustachy, in his 22nd season as a head coach at the NCAA Division I level.
I'd have to say the blend of the Rams' experience and Eustachy's leadership is working nicely and this team is going to be your shocker in the Mountain West Conference.
Colorado State, which is receiving votes in both the AP and ESPN/USA Today Top-25 rankings, ranks as one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, leading the NCAA in rebounding margin with an average differential of 17.3 boards per game. That'll help against the Buffs, with them being the home team, as I would think the second-chance opportunities will be plentiful.
So forget the fact the Buffs are off to their best start since the 1982-83 season, when they started 7-0, I'm more intrigued by the Rams' impressive start. Take the undefeated Rams in their road clash against Colorado.
2♦ COLORADO STATE
Craig Davis
5-2 the last 7 days with my comp play selections.
Wednesday's comp play is the Los Angeles Clippers as the home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavs ended a four-game skid by beating hapless Detroit in their last outing despite trailing by as many as 11 in the early portions of the 3rd quarter.
Some of you might be pointing to history as a factor in this game... don't. History is out the window in my opinion. The Clippers have been bad for years while the Mavs have been a winning franchise the last 8. It's comparing apples to oranges. You can't do it and handicap this game accurately.
Dallas has won 17 of the last 20 vs. the Clippers so there is plenty of reason for L.A. to lay a healthy beatdown on the Nowitzki-less Mavs tonight.
The Mavericks are being led offensively by guard O.J. Mayo, who is averaging over 20 points per game this season, while forward Shawn Marion averaged 10.7 points and 6.7 rebounds in three meetings with the Clippers last year.
So what? Can they stop Blake Griffin? Can they stop Chris Paul?
I love the Mavs, but they just don't have the defense to compete with the Clippers for four quarters. Los Angeles just recently took the Thunder to overtime in Oklahoma City and showed me they are a true force to be reckoned with in the Western Conference this year... if they can stay healthy.
Los Angeles has won three games in a row since suffering through a four-game losing streak, coming away with a 105-104 victory over the Utah Jazz as two-point road favorites on Monday night.
The Clippers had lost their previous 95 games when allowing an opponent to shoot 56 percent or better from the field until beating the Jazz... but when you limit your turnovers while forcing some on the other end, you can overlook some of these stats.
Simply put, the Mavs are in for a long night tonight.
Take the Clippers as your free play of the day.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Jeff Benton
45-31 run with my freebies.
Wednesday's freebie is the Minnesota Timberwolves plus the points at Boston.
Since Minny wasn't tested last night in their 105-88 romp at Philadelphia, willing to go with the Wolves in this back-to-back situation, especially since this Boston team has not looked particularly sharp through the first month of the season.
The C's are only 9-8 straight up this year, and they continue to be a money-burner on their home hardwood where they are just 3-5-1 against the spread this season.
Minnesota has covered six of their nine road games this year, and they have held the upper-hand against the spread in this series, as the T-Wolves have covered six of the last nine series meetings versus the Celtics.
Minny comes in having won their last pair of games straight up and three of their last four overall, while covering in all four of those contests.
Until Boston shows a little more consistency on the court, I will go against them in the role of favorite.
Take Minnesota plus the points to make a game of it.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
Temple (-3) at VILLANOVA
My free winner tonight comes out of the Big 5 up in Philly, and I'm taking the road chalk with the Temple Owls on the road at Villanova against Jay Wright's pesky Wildcats. Temple is laying -3 for a reason, and I won't fall for the trap of taking a Big East home underdog here when the right side is favored.
The Owls are unbeaten, and off to their best start since 1987-88 with their 5-0 start to the campaign. And now they come into this Philadelphia showdown having two of the last three meetings. Last season the Owls won 78-67, as Ramone Moore torched 'Nova for 32 points, while turnovers ultimately killed Villanova. The Wildcats gave it up 17 times, while Temple scored 20 points off those turnovers.
The game was played at a high intensity level, featuring 11 lead changes and eight ties.
And while it's easy to say 'that was last year,' I think Temple has a good chance of carrying over whatever it was it did last season, to this year's meeting with a senior-laden starting lineup.
Temple’s five wins have come by an average margin of 11.2 points. Seniors Scootie Randall (15.8 ppg., 7.2 rpg.) and Khalif Wyatt (15.6 ppg., 5.0 apg.) have paced the Owls' attack. Wyatt was part of last year's win, as was Anthony Lee, who is averaging 10.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
Wyatt is the reigning Big 5 Player of the Week, and sits just a single point behind Randall in the scoring column (15.6 ppg.) while leading the Owls in assists (5.0 apg.).
The Owls roll into this on a 6-1 ATS streak against the Big East, and 6-2 at the road window, while 'Nova is mired in ATS slides of 6-20 at home and 1-10 against Atlantic 10 teams.
3♦ TEMPLE
North Dakota State (-2') at MOREHEAD STATE
Not sure what it is about these smaller schools, but I tend to know best when it comes to playing teams like this. There really is nobody better, with a more accurate finger on the pulse, when it comes to games involving these small schools. Last year I made so much money riding South Dakota State. I haven't pinpointed my small school to follow this season, but tonight I'm taking a shot here with the North Dakota State Bison.
Morehead State continues its non-conference schedule tonight inside Johnson Arena, and is in after suffering a 66-57 setback at Wright State this past Saturday afternoon. North Dakota State, meanwhile, improved to 6-2 on the season after rolling to a 95-61 victory over Omaha last Thursday night.
Though they're in separate conferences, these two will face each other twice over the next 17 days, as they'll square off at Bison Sports Arena in Fargo on Dec. 21.
Leading the charge for the Bison is guard Taylor Braun, who was named Summit League Player of the Week, after averaging 11.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists over four games and was named MVP of the Progressive Legends Classic Pittsburgh Subregional.
Braun scored 12 points and pulled down six rebounds in an 83-80 overtime win against Youngstown State and had 11 points with a career-high six assists in a 14-point win over Duquesne. He finished the tournament with 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists in a 66-44 win over James Madison.
Those, to me, are impressive wins over the MAC, Atlantic 10 and Colonial Athletic. I don't think scoring a win over the Ohio Valley tonight should be any trouble.
1♦ NORTH DAKOTA STATE