Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 7

Marc Lawrence

Alabama at Dayton
Prediction: Dayton

The Flyers return home to take on SEC power Alabama in a non-conference clash at Dayton Arena looking to improve on a sterling 49-2 SU mark when hosting non-conference foes. With the Tide just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite versus a non-conference opponent off a loss, look for 'Bama to fall to 0-5 SU and ATS as single-digit chalk in road openers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dayton.

Scott Spreitzer

Wichita State at Tulsa
Prediction: Tulsa

The Golden Hurricane are 4-5 SU, but they're a grand total of just 19 points away from a 9-0 mark. Tulsa has lost 5 games by 5 points or less. And the one time they lost by more than 4 points came in OT at Missouri State. Tulsa takes on another Mo-Valley opponent tonight when Wichita State comes to town. We had Wichita on these pages on Sunday and they rewarded us with an easy blowout win over UNLV. I stated in that contest that the Rebels were likely to be challenged on the perimeter like no other time so far this season. The Shockers brought their "A-game" and UNLV was flat from the opening tip. But Tulsa is "nasty" on the defensive end and they're one of the toughest teams on the boards that WSU will face all season. Tulsa averages 39.7 rpg while holding their opponents to 26.4. They're also stingy on the defensive end allowing just 60.4 ppg on less than 39% shooting. Unlike UNLV, Tulsa will look to deny in the halfcourt on the defensive end. They'll force a deliberate tempo that I believe will frustrate the Shockers. Tulsa is a rather deep team with 8 players averaging between 15 minutes and 31 minutes played per contest and 3 of those players average in double-figures in scoring. Wichita State has covered just 7 of their last 22 outside of the Mo-Valley and I believe they're in trouble in this one. I'm grabbing the points with Tulsa on Wednesday.

Jim Feist

San Diego St vs. San Diego
Play: San Diego St -13

Rivalry battle for the pride of San Diego. San Diego State is a powerhouse team, off a pair of games against Top 25 teams, getting a split. Now they step down in competition facing a Toreros team that is 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss and 12-38-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They are also a money-burning 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games. Meanwhile SDSU has owned this series, at 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Play San Diego State!

Dave Cokin

San Diego State vs San Diego
Pick: San Diego State

San Diego State has been involved in a series of very close games, but here's their chance for a breather. The Aztecs are way better than San Diego and the hapless Toreros could be without their best player tonight, as he's a question mark with back issues. There's also no real home court edge, as there will be mostly Aztecs fans in the seats even though the Toreros are the hosts. Complacency on the part of the favorite is the only concern, as this is otherwise a blowout. I'll recommend laying the points with San Diego State.

EZWINNERS

Northern Iowa Panthers -8.5

It might be too early to have a whole lot of significance, but the Northern Iowa Panthers currently have an RPI of #4 on the nation. UNI is off to a strong 7-1 start with their only loss coming on the road against St. Mary’s who is currently ranked #11 in the Mid Major Top 25 poll. The Panthers are a very deep team that has about nine different players that could hurt you on any given night and the Northern Illinois defense has been excellent as they are allowing just 59 points per game which is tied for 41st in the nation. The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-3 on the season with their three losses coming against Clemson, Drake and the Campbell Fighting Camels (Big South Conference)! Iowa likes to sit back in a zone on defense most of the time and they allow their opponents to shoot 35.1% from three point land which is 228th in the nation out of 300 teams. That makes this a real bad match up against a UNI team that is shooting 38.3% from downtown which is 54th best in the nation. The home team has won six out of the last eight meetings between these two teams. The Panthers are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games against the Big Ten and the Hawkeyes are just 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen games against teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA +170 over Washington (3-way betting line)

The Capitals have won four games on the road in 12 attempts. Their last road game came on Nov. 11 in New Jersey in a game they were outshot 33-20. On Monday night against a Panther team returning home from a trip, the Caps trailed 5-1 at one point and eventually lost 5-4 to make the final look a lot more respectable than it was. The Panthers let up a bit. In that game, Dale Hunter elected to start Michael Neuvirth in net as opposed to Tomas Vokoun, who played for the Panthers for four years before signing with Washington. Vokoun’s family attended the game and he was hugely disappointed and now he’s likely going to be starting here. One has to wonder what his frame of mind will be. Hunter certainly did not endear himself to Vokoun or anyone else for that matter with that bonehead move in his first week on the job. The Caps are still a mess while the Senators keep winning and keep getting better. Ottawa is coming off a momentum building third period against Tampa Bay in a game they won 4-2. The Sens have picked up points in eight of their past 10 games and they’re on a pace to score 60 more goals than they did a year ago. This is a dangerous hockey team and one that is not only better than Washington but they’re in a much better frame of mind, they’re at home and they have more heart and desire. Play: Ottawa -½ +154 (Risking 2 units).

Philadelphia +150 over BUFFALO (3-way betting line)

The Sabres had lost five of six games before traveling to Nashville last Saturday and beating the Preds 3-2. In that game they looked like a Junior-A team playing an NHL team and were dominated by a team that usually doesn’t dominate anyone. Buffalo mustered a lousy 14 shots on net the entire game. Its previous win came against a Capitals team that was less interested then they were. Something is just not right with the Sabres. They have some key injuries but they’ve endured key injuries for years and always came out with a chip on their shoulder and played hard. This year the Sabres are soft. They’re not scoring and they’re not playing their typical physical game. The Flyers are the complete opposite. They have guys that give not 100% but 200% on every shift. Guys like Matt Read, Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell, Jakub Voracek and even Jaromir Jagr never take a second off and it rubs off on the whole team. The Flyers want to win and they want to win badly and that’s much more than we can say about the Sabres right now. Oh, yeah, they’re good too. Play: Philadelphia +150 (Risking 2 units).

SEAN MURPHY

Wichita State @ Tulsa
PICK: Under 131

These two teams hooked up in a high-scoring game last December, as Wichita State came up with an 82-79 win on its home floor.

I expect a different story to unfold this time around, at least as far as the total is concerned.

Wichita State is coming off a huge 89-70 win over UNLV. Everything fell for the Shockers on that night, as they shot 59.3% from the field, including 52.2% from beyond the arc.

Let's not get too carried away by that result. The Runnin' Rebels certainly don't mind getting involved in track meets. The Shockers opponent tonight might be the polar opposite.

Tulsa is averaging just 64.2 points per game on 42.9% shooting. Each and every time they've been in the underdog role this season, they've done their best to slow the pace, and while that's yet to translate into an outright underdog win, they have gone 2-1 ATS in those games.

While the Golden Hurricane rank a miserable 256th in the nation in scoring, they've been far better at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 60.4 ppg on 38.8% shooting, good for 54th and 60th in the nation in those two departments, respectively.

In the few games where Tulsa has managed to bust out offensively, its been due in large part to its three-point shooting. This is a tough matchup in that regard, as Wichita State ranks 13th in the nation defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot just 24.3%.

For the Shockers, this will mark their first true road game of the season. In three neutral site games, they've been held to 67, 60, and 64 points. Keep in mind, they've yet to be held under 68 points at home.

Both teams are fundamentally-sound at the defensive end of the floor, and both take care of the defensive glass, which should limit second-chance opportunities in this one. It's also worth noting that both are shooting under 65% from the free throw line, which never hurts when you're supporting the 'under'.

MATT FARGO

Xavier @ Butler
Pick: Butler +6½

This is a difficult spot for Xavier as it enters this game coming off comeback wins over Vanderbilt and Purdue, the latter coming at home over the weekend. While Butler is a 'name' program, the Musketeers may have one eye looking forward to this weekend when it takes on cross-city rival Cincinnati. This is just the second true road game for Xavier and while the first was a big win at Vanderbilt, it almost did not happen as the Musketeers rallied big for that victory.

Butler is definitely not the same team were are accustomed to following two straight trips to the championship game. However, the Bulldogs are still very good and sitting at 4-4 is no reason for distress as we only have to look back to last season as they started with the same 4-4 record. Another postseason run is unlikely but Butler is a couple missed free throws away from being 6-2 and those games resulted in two overtime setbacks. One of those early losses last season came at Xavier, setting up a solid revenge situation.

Surprisingly the Bulldogs are going for their first victory over a nationally ranked foe at Hinkle Fieldhouse since 2009 and we do not even need the outright win here. Butler is getting a great number and of course this is based upon the early season results. What isn't showing however is the fact that will be Butler's sixth opponent that is ranked in the top 40 so it has been another tough early season schedule. With upcoming games against Purdue, Gonzaga and Stanford, this has turned into a big one for the Bulldogs.

Xavier is just 1-0 on the road but Butler is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and it is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games against teams with an overall winning percentage of greater than .800. As underdogs, the Bulldogs are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 times in that role with the average scoring differential dead even in those games. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

SPORTS WAGERS

RHODE ISLAND +6½ over Virginia Tech

The Rhode Island Rams have one win this season. The Hokies have five and they’re also a well- known program. We’re always looking to play value in these situations and that’s precisely what we have here. Va Tech is simply a huge risk laying significant points on the road. They’re 0-2 on the road and the five teams they beat can all be considered lousy. This year’s edition of the Hokies is an offensively challenged one that does not warrant this weight. The Rams are 1-7 but they have two OT losses and a couple of very close one’s. They lost to George Mason in OT and they lost to Texas by 10. They have a nice win over Hofstra and they’re averaging a pretty sweet 70 points per game. The Rams have a decent shot of winning this one outright and more than a decent shot of covering the number. Play: #746 Rhode Island +6½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

We’re also playing the following games:

St Bonaventure +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2)

Weber St. +13 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2)

Davidson +113 (Risking 2 units)

WUNDERDOG

Western Kentucky at Southern Illinois
Pick: Western Kentucky +7

These programs both came into prominence with impressive NCAA Tournament runs, but they have also both struggled to regain the magic. The Salukis once dominant home court where they seldom lost, but have since become a non-factor as they are a dismal 1-7 here in their last eight. The Hilltoppers, after a pair of games with VCU, along with games vs. LSU, and Tulsa, have rebounded with two wins in their last three, losing only to unbeaten Murray State. This one looks like it is coming down to the wire and I like the points, especially on a Western Kentucky team that is 9-2 ATS vs. weak home teams that are under .400 on their own court. The Salukis once dominating home court has been reduced to 1-7 ATS in their last eight. Western Kentucky is the play in this one.

Bobby Conn

Illinois State vs. Morehead State
Play: Illinois State -3½

Morehead State comes into this game with a record of 4-5, but they have not beat anyone of note. Even though the last time out they put up 83 points, that was against Mid-Continent (KY) (Who?!). Illinois State might occasionally struggle offensively, but their defense shuts opponents down to the tune of just 56.4 ppg. I just can't see the Eagles scoring enough points to beat Illinois State since they are only shooting 40% on the year.

Rocketman

Lasalle @ Towson
Play: Lasalle -16½

Lasalle is 5-3 SU overall this year while Towson comes in with an 0-7 record overall this season. Lasalle is 5-1 ATS overall this year. Towson is 1-5 ATS this year in non-conference games. Towson is scoring only 51 points per game overall this year and 49.5 points per game at home this season. Towson is allowing 77.1 points per game overall this year. Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Explorers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Explorers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 13.0 or greater. We'll recommend a small play on Lasalle tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado St vs. Duke
Play: Duke -21½

The Blue Devils are off a blowout loss to Ohio.St in their last game and it appears Colorado St is in the wrong arena at the wrong time. Cameron Indoor will be crazy tonight and Colorado St may not be able to survive the Big Duke Runs they are likely to see tonight. Duke is an incredible 28-0 with 23 spread wins at home when the total is 145 to 150, including 8-0 straight up and ats the last 3 years in this role. in games after allowing 80 or more points which is not often they are 4-0 ats. They have covered 13 of the last 20 in Wednesday night games and catch a Colorado St team that has failed ats in 7 of the last 8 after allowing 80 or more. Look for Duke to cover tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit St. Bonaventure +10½

I believe this young Illinois team is in for a letdown following its big win over then-No. 19 Gonzaga. This experienced St. Bonaventure team has already played 4 true road games this season and showed well in each. It played Cleveland State to a 3-point game, VA Tech to a 9-point game, beat Siena and upset Buffalo. Cleveland State is 8-1 with several impressive wins. VA Tech and Buffalo also have winning records. The Bonnies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games as a road underdog. Plus, Illinois is just 20-35 ATS under coach Weber after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. This line is inflated because of Illinois' win over Gonzaga. We'll take the points.