Jack Jones
Boise State -15
The Boise State Broncos continue to fly under the radar early in the season. This is one of the better teams in the country that not too many folks know about quite yet. I like their chances of covering this 15-point spread at home against Portland Wednesday night.
The Broncos are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. They are outscoring opponents 84.0 to 59.6 on the year. At home, Boise State is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS, outscoring foes 87.1 to 57.9 on average. While they have played a fairly easy schedule, it's not like Portland is a juggernaut.
The Pilots are 3-5 on the season, getting outscored 66.6 to 76.1 on average. They are 2-4 on the road, losing by 13.0 points/game. This team is only shooting 41.1% from the floor on the year, and they have lost all four of their true road games by 14 points or more.
A math formula that I use calculates that Boise State would win this game by roughly 19 points on average. That gives us four full points of value to work with tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BOISE ST) - a top caliber team (>=+11 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<=-8 PPG differential), after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Bet Boise State Wednesday.
Steve Janus
Georgia -4
This is a great spot to load up on the home team as a small favorite. Georgia has won seven straight meetings against their in-state rivals, including a 73-72 win at Georgia Tech last December.
Georgia comes into the game having lost three straight, but are showing signs of breaking through with a win. They've lost their last two games by a combined 8-points.
The Bulldogs biggest strength is their defense, and I expect Georgia to bring their best defensive effort to the court tonight. They are allowing just 55.2 ppg on 37.4% shooting on their home floor. In the Yellow Jackets first true road game of the season, they scored just 52 points on 35% shooting.
When the oddsmakers back the Bulldogs it's usually a good sign to take them. In the two games they have been favored this year they won both easily. The Yellow Jackets have been overrated all season, failing to cover three games as a favorite and the only game where they were listed as an underdog.
Georgia is a remarkable 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
John Ryan
Delaware vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Delaware +3½
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Delaware will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. This will be a grind it out ‘Philadelphia’ style slugfest. The sim shows a slow paced game with Delaware attempting between 46 and 52 shots and will keep Penn to 31 to 37% 3-point shooting. In past games where Delaware has attained these levels of performance they are a solid 33-18 ATS in road games in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots since 1997; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Delaware.
Larry Ness
Tulsa +3
The Shockers set a school record with 29 wins last season, as the team's five wins in the NIT came by an average margin of 15.4 PPG, as different player led them in scoring in each win. This year's team misses the 6-8 JT Durley (11.2-4.9) plus two other front court contributors but the Shockers are a well-balanced group again this year, as six players are averaging between 9.1-to-13.3 PPG. The perimeter is in good hands with three starting senior guards, Murry (13.3-4.6-3.3), Kyles (9.9-4.6-3.3) and Ragland (11.9). Up front, there is the 7-0 Stutz (10.3-7.0), 6-8 JUCO transfer Hall (9.3-6.9) plus 6-5 swingman Smith (9.1-3.1). The Shockers (5-2) lost to then-No. 16 Alabama (the team they beat in the NIT championship game) and Temple in overtime in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off but have since won three in a row. That includes Sunday's HUGE win over UNLV, 89-79. As for Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane enter tonight's game at 4-5, having dropped three in a row. The most recent loss came at home this past Saturday, 67-64 to Arizona State. The loss of leading scorer Hurtt (20.0) from LY doesn't help but in the 6-11 Idlet (10.0-5.7), Tulsa has a player to match Stutz inside. Sophomore guard Clarkson (15.3-5.0) leads the team in scoring plus fellow guard Haralson (11.7) can score as well. A nice surprise has been the 6-11 Maduka, who contributed almost nothing as a freshman but has averaged 7.8 & 7.1 in the early going this year. All three of Tulsa's most recent losses have come by five or less points and Doug Wojcik's team can play defense. Tulsa allows 60.4 PPG on 38.8 percent shooting and catches Wichita St off its upset of UNLV and playing its first true road game of the season. Take the home dog.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
DENVER -1 over Iona: Both of these teams come into this game at 6-1 and while the Gaels clearly have the offensive edge, the Pioneers have a decided defensive edge to go along with one of the best mid-major home court advantages. Iona leads the nation is scoring at 92 ppg and they are 11th in shooting at 50.3%. But on the other end of the court they have allowed 77.7 ppg (329th) on 48.4% shooting (296th), plus 38.4% from long range (305th). Now I know that Denver is not a great offensive team, as they have averaged just 64.4 ppg, BUT this is a very efficient offense as they have hit 47.7% of their shots and they are 24th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.24). Defense is where the bread and butter of this Denver team lies as they have allowed just 58;.4 ppg on 42.7% shooting, plus they are 45th in the nation in blocks (5.1), while Iona is 324th (1.6). Iona is not a great 3-point team and they get alot of their points in transition and by driving the lane, but Denver has a solid interior defense and they get back very well on defense, so I don't expect a lot of easy hoops by the Gaels. Denver will force them to play a half court game and they are not very good in that style. Look for Denver to grab a solid home win here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Go against any road team off a 20+ point road win if this is a game involving two teams with a winning pct of 80+.
4 UNIT PLAY
BOISE STATE -13.5 over Portland: The Broncos are off to a fine start as they have gone 7-1 and have just been crushing their opponents, especially at home. The Broncos are scoring 85.8 ppg on 49.4% shooting on their way to crushing their opponents by 25.6 ppg at home this year. Now it's not like the played a full slate of cupcakes as their home wins have included a 21 point win over Utah, a 44 point destruction of Drake and a 9 point win over a pretty good Indiana State team. The Broncos have done it on both ends of the floor as they are 9th in scoring (84 ppg) and 43rd in points allowed (59.6 ppg). On the other side we have a struggling Portland team that just haven't got on track yet, after replacing 3 starters from last year. Portland has been just the opposite of Boise as they have been outscored by 12.6 ppg overall and a whopping 22 ppg on the road. Granted that St Louis, Kentucky and Washington has been apart of their road schedule, but they also did lose by 14 at UCSB and Boise is better than them. Portland has not done very well on the defensive end as they have allowed 76.1 ppg (313th) on 45.4% shooting (279th), and i really don't think they will be able to stop this Boise team tonight. Portland has played a killer road schedule, but the Pilots are no better than the talent level that Boise has played at home this year and you have seen what the broncos have done at home. I say Boise by at least 18 in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Depaul -4 over LOYOLA- CHICAGO: Road teams that are playing their 3rd game in a week, with a winning pct of 51% to 60% vs an opponent with a winning pct of 20 or less are 37-12 ATS since 1997. Plus we also note that Depaul is 5-0 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 or less, while Loyola is just 5-16-2 ATS as a dog of 6.5 or less. The Blue Demons have really been tested in the early going and that can only help this young team as the season goes on. Depaul has faced Ole Miss, ASU, Texas Tech and Minnesota thus far and they went 2-2 in that stretch, with their 2 losses coming by just 3 total points. This is a team that has gone just 2-52 the last 3 years in the big East. Depaul has dne a fine job on offense this year as they have averaged 77.7 ppg (10 ppg more than last year) on 46.6% shooting. The defense for Depaul has not been stellar as they have allowed 74.1 ppg on 48.6% shooting, but tonight they face a very weak Rambler offense that has put up just 53.4 ppg on 40.5% shooting, vs a pretty week schedule. Porter Moser has been brought in to resurrect this ramblers team, but this young team hasn't grasped his new schemes just yet and they have struggled. He will point them in the right direction, but tonight I look for a hungrier depaul team that is playing much better right now to pull a way late in this game for a solid win.
BUTLER +6 over Xavier: 2 Years ago Butler had a 9 point win over Xavier, but the last 2 years this games has been decided by a total of 3 points and I expect another close one here. In their last 3 games Xavier has played the likes of Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Purdue and 1 of those games (Vandy) they went to OT in and in the Purdue game they came from 19 down with 10 minutes to go to win by 3 and then they have a big revenge game vs instate rival Cincinnati on deck, so this could be a bit of a flat spot for them, especially since Butler isn't as strong as the last couple years. Butler still has the athletes to play with this team and as always they play good defense, especially at home where they have allowed just 60 ppg, despite 46% shooting. Xavier has scored 82 ppg on the road, but they have shot just 37.8% away from home. I expect the Butler defense that gets back very well on defense, to have similar success vs this weak shooting team. The Butler offense should have enough success vs a Xavier team that has allowed 70 ppg on the road, to keep this one close. I feel that this game is more important to Butler and that will keep them in the game vs a Xavier team that may be caught looking ahead to their game vs Cincinnati.
2 UNIT PLAY
DUKE -20.5 over Colorado State: Can't help but feel sorry for the Rams today. In their last game the Blue Devils were crushed by ohio State and this team is not happy and will be looking to take it out on the Rams tonight. CSU is 5-3 on the year, but they haven't played anybody yet and they do have a 21 point home loss to an average Southern Miss squad on the resume. other than Pesbyterian, Duke hasn't had that signature blowout win that they are capable of, but that ends tonight as they take out their frustrations pn a very average Rams squad tonight. KEY TREND--- Duke is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games with an OU line of 140 to 149.5.
David Banks
Xavier / Butler Under
The A10 squares off against the Horizon League on the college hardwood Wednesday night when the eighth ranked Xavier Musketeers invade Hinkle Fieldhouse to post-up the Butler Bulldogs; ESPN & ESPN3.com will cover the game live starting at 9:00 ET.
The Musketeers have stormed out to a perfect 6-0 SU record after battling back from a 19 point deficit to pull out the 66-63 win against the Purdue Boilermakers last Saturday. Though Xavier failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, it’s a win that will shine upon the team brightly come selection Sunday. Guard Tu Holloway was one of four double-digit scorers for the Muskie’s scoring a game-high 21 points which included three straight bombs from beyond the arc in the game’s closing moments. Xavier already has an overtime win at Vanderbilt under its belt to check in 1-0 SU & ATS in true road games to date. Head coach Chris Mack's squad is a very balanced unit scoring an average of 74.0 PPG (#84) while limiting the opposition to just 62.5 PPG (#90). They've been deadly from downtown converting at a 43.0 percent clip (#18), and have outrebounded their opponents by 7.5 RPG (#30). The Musketeers have covered each of their last six away from the Cintas Center.
Do not make the mistake of thinking the 2011-12 Butler Bulldogs are the same Cinderella team that went on to play in the championship game of the last two NCAA Tournaments. Gone are Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard and along with them is a bevy of experience that this year's squad has failed to exhibit. To date, the Bulldogs have split each of their eight games played and failed to cover their five lined games. Most recently, Butler fell at home to Valparaiso 77-71 in overtime. The loss was the second extra session loss incurred this season after they fell at Evansville 80-77 in their season opener. While the defense has limited the opposition to 63.5 PPG (#107), head coach Brad Stevens’ squad has been atrocious at the offensive end of the court where they’ve scored an average of just 67.5 PPG (#196) and converted at a 40.8 percent clip from the field (#258). Butler’s 3-1-1 ATS its L/5 against the Atlantic 10.
These teams have met in the regular season each of the last three years. Xavier squeaked out the 51-49 win last year ultimately pushing the closing pointspread (-2) to halt the Bulldogs two-game win streak in the recent series. Though the Musketeers are 6-2 ATS their L/8 following a pointspread defeat, they're just 3-10-1 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. Butler has compiled a tremendous 57-28-2 ATS tally in its last 87 non-conference clashes, but has failed to cover each of its last four against +.500 opposition.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Wisconsin -21
Off back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Marquette, expect the Badgers to take out their frustrations on an inferior opponent tonight. Wisconsin had won 23 in a row inside the Kohl Center before falling to Marquette and that can't be sitting well. It will be looking to start a new streak tonight in impressive fashion. Under coach Ryan, Wisconsin is a strong 22-10 ATS when checking into a game off an upset loss. Expect the Badgers to bounce back strong.
Dave Price
1 Unit Denver +1½
Iona's 36-point win over Niagara stacks the odds against it tonight as favorites (IONA) off a road blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%), are 6-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Pioneers are a reliable 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Take Denver.
Brandon Lee
Western Kentucky +7
Normally a play this strong would be a premium play only, but after a rare 10* loss on Tuesday, Mr. Lee has decided to give away one of his best selections.
Southern Illinois hasn't played since beating a bad Chicago State team back on Nov. 25. This will be their first game in 12 days. Too much rest is a bad thing, and I expect Southern Illinois to come out sluggish against a confident Western Kentucky team that has won two of their last three, including a 60-53 win over Bowling Green as a 4-point underdog!
Southern Illinois has played just four games all season. They lost their first three before beating Chicago St, including a bad loss at home to Ohio Dominican. Southern Illinois is shooting just 36.2% from the field, while allowing their opponents to cash in on nearly 47% of their attempts.
When you can't make shots, it makes it very hard to win a game, let a lone a 7-point spread. Western Kentucky is the clear play in this game, as I give them a very strong chance of winning this game outright.
Tom Freese
Portland vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -15
We're more accustomed to seeing the Broncos laying double digits on the football field, but tonight they wrap up a five-game home stand that has seen them go 4-0 SU to date, including 3-0 ATS L3. The Broncos only loss this year came to a good Long Beach State team that has already upset Pittsburgh. Portland, meanwhile, has lost five of six and the only win during that stretch came against Lewis & Clark, which really shouldn't count. Every loss has been by double digits, three of them by 20 or more.
Andrew Lange
Portland at Boise State
Play: Portland +8.5 1st Half
At some point, the betting markets are going to outpace Boise State. Tonight's game against Portland opened -12 but was bet up to a rich -15. The Broncos have dominated weaker foes at home like Utah, Northridge, and Idaho State but I think they'll get a stiffer test tonight against the Pilots. Portland defeated Boise 88-79 last year and though the Pilots lost a lot from that team, they should be familiar with what Boise is going to try to accomplish. Portland has played a very tough schedule including last time out at Saint Louis. They got buried early but didn't quit in the second half and will have a much easier time making baskets tonight. Boise has the ability to wear down teams with its press and up-tempo offense and I think we'll see Portland try to come out and force the Broncos to defend. With the inflated price, I'll call for the underdog to stick around early as we make a play on the first half.
OC Dooley
St. Bonaventure +10.5
It is rare that St. Bonaventure gets to appear in a nationally-televised tilt, and tonight marks the FIRST TIME EVER that they will oppose Illinois on the same court. It is easy to see why Illinois has been cast as a double-digit favorite as they currently have an undefeated record (8-0) and just cracked the Top-25 national poll following an 82-75 upset of Gonzaga where the offensive production was stellar. But the fact of the matter is that the Illini are MINUS four starters from last year’s contingent that made it all the way to the “sweet sixteen” round of the big dance. Visiting St. Bonaventure is a dangerous underdog that has the ability to hang around on the scoreboard courtesy of a solid DEFENSE that is permitting on average just 62 points per contest. Courtesy of ESPN2 the entire nation tonight gets to see St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson who after winning his conference’s “rookie of the year” award a year ago is a legitimate NBA prospect. All Nicholson did a year ago was set an all time single-season school shooting percentage record (.602) and his 81 BLOCKS on defense was the third-best figure in school history. Statistically it would seem that Illinois has a decided edge since they are on a current 24-1 roll at home against non-conference opposition. Meanwhile the Bonnies have lost twenty in a row straight-up against nationally-ranked opponents. But after failing to cover the spread twice in a three-game stretch, St. Bonaventure is an excellent 11-3 ATS on the ROAD