Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 8,2010

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Miami Heat

The Heat invades Utah when they take on the Jazz at the Engery Solutions Center in Salt Lake City Wednesday night with revenge on their minds from a 116-114 loss they suffered to the hosts a month ago back home on South Beach. Not that they need the incentive but it appears Miami is finally on track as they enter tonight's fray on a four game wins-and-cover streak. They are also 9--2-1 ATS the last 12 games in this series, including 6-1 ATS when the Heat of off a win. Look for the King and his court to even the score here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

Tom Freese

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz

Miami is 14-8 straight up this year. The Heat are 4-9 ATS their last 13 home games and they are 4-10 ATS their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 2-6 ATS their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Utah is 16-6 straight up this year. The Jazz are 24-10 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 25-9-2 ATS their 36 games as home favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Utah is 5-2 ATS their last 7 home games. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

BEN BURNS

Toronto @ New York
PICK: Over 220.5

These teams just faced each other at Toronto, a few days ago. The Knicks won that 12/5 game by a score of 115-99. The 214 points was "a lot," but still not enough to finish above the high O/U number. I expect tonight's rematch to be even higher-scoring.

While the Raptors score roughly as many points, whether at home or on the road, they tend to give up a lot more, when playing away from Toronto. In fact, they allow a somewhat respectable 99.6 points per game at home but an ugly 108.2 when playing on the road. Facing a NY team which scores more points than any other team in the Eastern Conference, that number could easily go up, after tonight.

The Knicks don't exactly play great defense themselves. They allow 106.1 per game and the 104.8 per game, that they're allowing at home, is the worst in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors are in a couple of their best 'over' spots here. Not only have they seen the 'over' go 14-5 the last 19 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range but they've also seen the 'over' go 28-14-1 the past 2+ seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Consider the OVER

Scott Spreitzer

San Diego State @ California
PICK: San Diego State -3.5

I had the Aztecs on November 16 on these pages and we cashed the ticket as they knocked-off Gonzaga on the road. Although they have made their way into the top-20, I still believe Steve Fisher's squad is underrated by the public, and therefore, the linesmaker has yet to make too much of an adjustment. SDSU has a chance to go extremely deep in this season's Big Dance. Steve Fisher believes he has his best team since his Michigan days. All five starters are back for the Aztecs, who suffered just one, semi-key loss in the off-season. Virtually everyone is back. SDSU, unlike most MWC entries, owns a dominant frontcourt. While SDSU can take it to the rack with their frontcourt, they also own a talented and experienced backcourt that should be too much for California to handle. California returned just one starter from last year's squad and they have been incredibly inconsistent. The Golden Bears scored 89 points in a 25 point win over New Mexico, but scored just 44 points and 46 points in back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Boston College. And against this Aztec lineup, I expect a tough night for the Bears. SDSU is on a profitable, 22-11 ATS run in non-conference over the last three seasons and I'll lay the points with them again. SDSU, minus the points on Wednesday.

MATT FARGO

Detroit @ Western Michigan
PICK: Detroit +1.5

This is a real good spot for Detroit and it comes at a great price as well. After starting the season 1-3, the Titans have gone 4-1 over their last five games to move to a game over .500. We are getting an excellent price here because Detroit has played its last five games at home and it is 0-3 on the season in true road games. However, those road games came at New Mexico, Syracuse and Mississippi St. and the Titans covered all three of those games. The price is smaller tonight but for good reason.

Western Michigan is off to a 2-4 start to the season and the record could be better as two of those losses came by two and three points. However, the Broncos are in for a long year after losing three starters and their two home games against D-I opponents resulted in blowout losses in each. The absence of guard Davis Kool is being felt as he was their go to guy for years and his absence is being felt offensively and defensively. Down low is where Western Michigan has had success but the matchups are not good here.

Detroit has a dominant big man in Eli Holman who leads the Horizon League in both offensive (4.2 rpg) and defensive (7.3 rpg) rebounds per game in the early going. He is also second in field goal percentage, connecting on 64.2 percent of his shots (and is sixth in blocks with 1.3 bpg and eighth in scoring at 15.0 ppg. Complimenting him is freshman point guard Ray McCallum who is averaging 12.3 ppg and 4.0 apg. They are two of four Titans players averaging double-digits in scoring.

Western Michigan is coming off a non-Division I blowout win and that is not necessarily a good thing as the Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit win. Detroit meanwhile is riding a 12-4 ATS run in the road and head coach Ray McCallum is 40-17 ATS in his 57 games with a line between +3 and -3 so he has what it takes to get the job done. The Titans are the better team coming into this game and they get into the win column on the road with their easiest test of the young season. 3* Detroit Titans

Jim Feist

Wizards vs. Kings
Olay: Over 199

Washington is a long way from home and in a terrible situational handicapping spot, the second of a back to back road spot playing at the Lakers last night. The defense has been awful on a recent 7-1 run over the total. They are 105.6 ppg, 6th most in the NBA. At least they face an equally inept defense, one allowing 101.5 ppg and .476% shooting by opponents, fifth worst in the league. And guess who's second worst? Washington, allowing .482% shooting. Look for both teams to focus on offense, as they are going nowhere, trying to put on a show for the fans, not giving a lick about defense. Play the Wizards/Kings Over the total.

James Patrick Sports

Heat vs. Jazz

Some believe Utah's wild comeback win at Miami back on Nov. 9 (Jazz trailed 51-32 at half) was the beginning point of Heat's slide that eventually reached (12) non-covers in 13-game stretch up to Nov. 30. Miami sure can turn up the Heat and can gain payback here in Salt Lake City. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Wednesday action is on Miami Heat.

Rocketman

Rhode Island vs. Northeastern
Play: Rhode Island -1

Rhode Island comes in with a 5-3 overall record this year while Northeastern has a 2-4 overall record on the season. Rhode Island is 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS since 1997 as a road favorite of 3 points or less or a pick. Rhode Island is 15-2 SU last 3 years after allowing 80 points or more. Rhode Island is 6-0 SU overall vs Northeastern since 1997. Huskies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Huskies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Huskies are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 Wednesday games. Huskies are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Huskies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll recommend a small play on Rhode Island tonight!

Tom Stryker

Detroit vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -2

Back on November 15th, 2009, Western Michigan traveled to Detroit and left the Motor City with a frustrating 86-80 loss in its pocket. Rest assured, in this revenge battle, the Broncos will take care of business.

Don't be fooled by WMU's 2-4 SU record. Head coach Steve Hawkins and the boys have played some pretty good teams. Western's four blemishes have come at Xavier, at home to Loyola Chicago and Illinois and at Towson. The fact that this game is being played inside University Arena is huge for the Broncos.

With Hawkins on the bench, WMU has posted a jaw-dropping 74-20 SU record in Kalamazoo including 24-9 SU against non-conference opponents. Also, as a home favorite (or pick), the Broncos have played very well provided they check in with momentum off a straight up home win notching a stellar 25-15 ATS mark including a stunning 14-3 ATS in this role facing a team that enters off a straight up victory as well.

Knocking off Detroit won't be an easy task. The Titans have faced the likes of New Mexico, Syracuse and Mississippi State early in the season and they are battled tested. Fortunately, Detroit is locked into one of its worst team roles. As a single digit road underdog (or pick) coming off a straight up win, the Titans are a pathetic 17-32-1 ATS.

Detroit faced the Lobos, Orangemen and Bulldogs on the road this year and dropped all three averaging only 61.7 points in the process. The Broncos enter off an impressive 109-50 home win over Alma College and they'll be up for this revenge challenge. Take Western Michigan.

Ray Monohan

Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Play: Chicago Blackhawks

We get nice value vs. Dallas tonight. As I really like this price compared to games vs. Dallas in Chicago last year.

Chicago is one of the toughest NHL arena's for a visiting team to come into and steal a win. Add in the fact that CHICAGO are 56-27 in their last 83 home games, and you see why. I also like the fact Chicago has climbed back into second place with seven wins in its last 10 games and are starting to hit their championship stride.

The Stars come into this matchup off a loss to Columbus, while the Blackhawks come in off of their win over Calgary. Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games, they're also 6-2 SU in the last 8 games when playing Dallas. The last meeting between these two clubs saw Chicago prevail 5-2 in Dallas last April.

In net for Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford has won his last six starts while putting together a 1.97 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage. Kari Lehtonen and his 2.59 GAA will be in the pipes for Dallas. Good enough for me, I'm on Chicago straight up tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Western Kentucky –6½ over BOWLING GREEN

The Bowling Green Falcons may not win another game this year. In fact, they’d be better off bowling. This group of players is about as bad as it gets. They have no scorers, they have no size, they can’t get a rebound if their life depended on it, they have no bench and they’re going to lose games by 30 to 50 points. The Falcons shoot a miserable .350 from the field and they shoot .243 on three-pointers and that’s the positive stats for them. The Hilltoppers are not the cream of the crop but they’re big and they rank 40th in the nation in rebounding. Don’t expect the Falcons 5’6” and 5’7” guards to grab too many boards. Furthermore, W. Kentucky has dropped four in a row so they’re not going to be in a sympathetic mood. Thing is, its last three losses has come against South Carolina, Vandy and Memphis and after playing that trio, this game will be in slow motion for them. Some of the Hilltoppers other opponents were St. Joes and Minnesota and they beat the Hawks by 28. The Hilltoppers are actually a very decent squad with four solid seniors getting a lot of minutes and so they should be. Fact is, the Hilltoppers should and likely will wallop this putrid host and they likely won’t break a sweat in naming the score. Play: Western Kentucky –6½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Toronto +2.12 over PITTSBURGH

The Penguins have shot right to the top of the NHL power rankings and Sidney Crosby was named the league’s #1 star of the week. What that has caused is a spike in the Pens stock and now they’re way overvalued and probably will be for a while. Pittsburgh has reeled off 10 wins in a row and 10 straight wins is not an easy thing to do under any circumstances. However, a close look reveals that they played just three of those 10 games against teams above .500 and two of them, the Rangers and Jackets, are laboring right now, especially the Jackets. The other team above .500 the Pens beat were the Canucks in the first game of the streak. Prior to that, Pittsburgh was a game over .500. They still have goaltending issues and they’re still without Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Stall, meaning they have one line that is scoring. The Maple Leafs are coming off back-to-back wins over Boston and Washington. Over its last six games, the Leafs have played very well in five of them. In that 3-1 loss to Buffalo they dominated play but a stupid penalty by Colton Orr early in the first period had the Leafs shorthanded for four minutes and the Sabres scored twice. The Leafs outshot them the rest of the way 31-12. Toronto has come from behind in two straight games and that last comeback over Washington could really snowball into something good for them. The Leafs are playing with some confidence finally and they really have a good chance to go into Pittsburgh and complete the trifecta (Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh) because the Pens are good but they’re not as good as advertised, especially without Malkin and Staal. Play: Toronto +2.12 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose +1.27 over PHILADELPHIA

If this game loses it loses but it’s most definitely a risk worth taking. You really can’t try and predict the outcome of games; that does not work. The better approach is to look for value or find games where one or both teams are overvalued or undervalued and play accordingly and that’s the case here. The Sharkies have been a regular season juggernaut for years and while its record does not show it yet, this is the best team the Sharks have had in years. They’re a juggernaut of a team and yet they’re in last place in its division so buy now before the price soars. San Jose’s only real flaw is its goaltending, which is hit and miss with Niemi and Nittymaki but let’s not forget that the Blackhawks won it all last year with Niemi. The Sharks are coming off a 5-2 win in Detroit and remarkably enough they have not won back-to-back games in three weeks covering 11 games. Frankly, that’s rather incredible for a team as talented as this and it’s only a matter of time before they start stringing together wins. The Flyers are certainly a quality opponent but its record is a bit deceiving when you consider that they’re beating teams below .500 and losing to teams above. In fact, the Flyers have played 14 games against teams above .500 and have just six wins. Only one of its last six games has come against a team above .500, the Bruins, and they didn’t score a goal in a 3-0 loss. After that they won two straight over the Islanders and Devils (very big deal). Rookie goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is getting lots of praise but he’s really just an average goaltender and no matter how you break this one down the Sharkies offer up nothing but serious value as a pup. Play: San Jose +1.27 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Leonard

LA Lakers at LA Clippers
Play: LA Lakers

The Clippers are considered the home team in this match-up yet both teams actually call the Staples Center home. So anytime you break down games involving these two squads you have to understand that there really is no home advantage for the Clippers. The Lakers have been a dominant team in the early going all season with regular big leads at the end of the first quarter and the half. The same thing occurred last night as they led the Wizards at the break by 13 points. But Washington continued to fight in the second half and really gave the host a scare. We expect the coaching staff to use that as a motivational tool tonight when they take on the Clippers.

Blake Griffin is a hell of a player but the truth is that the Clippers are still a bad basketball team. They own just five wins on the season and they have been very inconsistent. Scoring has been a problem as of late as they have failed to reach the century mark in 4 of the last 5 games. That's especially a concern when all five games were against teams from the run and gun western conference.

This is a statement game for the Clippers while the Lakers want to get a satisfying win before heading out east for a road-trip. The motivation is there for the Clips but the Lakers own all the talent match-ups. Off a poor second half last night we look for the Lakers to keep up the pressure the entire game.

EZWINNERS

North Carolina Tar Heels -9

The Evansville Purple Aces are only 3-3 this season but they do have a big road win over the Butler Bulldogs which should get the attention of Roy Williams and the North Carolina Tar Heels. Evansville matched up pretty well with Butler in that game and scored a lot of points in the paint which is something that I don't see them doing here against the Heels. North Carolina is a very bad match up for Evansville. The Heels are much more athletic and have an enormous size advantage that will take away the inside the paint scoring of the Purple Aces. Zeller and Henson should both have huge games as I expect UNC to pound the ball inside all night long. There is not a whole lot of home court advantage for Evansville who is only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as a home underdog. Lay the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -2

The Bucks have endured a rough stretch since mid-November, but I like their chances at home tonight against a team they have owned. Milwaukee has won 5 in a row over Indiana with all 5 of those wins coming by at least 2 points. The Over/Under line is very significant in this matchup. It opened at 190. This tells us odds makers are expecting a lower scoring game and that favors the Bucks. Indiana has 10 wins this season, and they have not faced a total this low in any of them. This makes perfect sense considering the Pacers normally top the century mark in victories. In other words, I believe the books are tipping their hand here. Getting there against Milwaukee will be quite the task. The Bucks just held Orlando and Miami to 85 and 88 points respectively in their last two games. Plus, they have held Indiana to 94 or fewer points in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Bucks are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bucks.