WUNDERDOG
Florida at Columbus
Pick: Columbus -160
This game will get one of these teams healthy as they both enter this one riding some bad streaks. The Panthers come into this one at just 1-4-4 in their last nine, while the Blue Jackets are just 1-5-3. Something has to give, and in cases like this it is always better to side with the home team. The Blue Jackets have been the better team so far this season and at home they should be able to turn back the struggling Panthers. Columbus still remains a good 7-4-3 as host, and in the only meeting last season between these clubs they took down the Panthers 3-1 in Florida. I'll go with Columbus to right the ship here vs. the struggling Panthers.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA –10½ over Chicago
10½ points may seem like a lot when in fact it’s not at all when you consider the Bulls recent woes. This invader is playing with nothing right now. They can’t defend, they can’t shoot, its confidence is shot and to top it all off, morale is way down after losing at home last night to the Nets. Now the Bulls will play its fifth game in a week and they’ll play against a Hawks team that is rested and that owns a 14-6 record. The Bulls have dropped eight of its last nine and that includes six double-digit losses. To break it down even more, they have a 19-point loss in Denver, a 24-point loss in Portland, a 19-point loss in Utah, a 32-point home loss to Toronto and yesterday’s loss at home to the Nets. The Hawks have not been as sharp recently but they play great defense always and they’re coming off an impressive road win in Dallas. They’ve won just three of its last seven games so it’s very likely that they’ll come in focused. We already know the Hawks are well rested and if the Bulls keep this one within this range it’ll be rather surprising. Looks like another Bulls implosion. Play: Atlanta –10½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
INDIANA/Portland under 193½
The Blazers are most definitely in a little trouble right now with a shortened bench and a slew of injured players. Of course the oddmakers know that and it’s one of the reasons you’ll rarely hear the mention of an injury in this space. What’s more significant is that the Blazers are struggling miserably to score points. In fact, they’ve been held to under 100 in five of its last six games and that includes games against the defenseless Grizzlies and Knicks. The Pacers have lots of problems too, as they’ve dropped nine of ten and they’re without Danny Granger, its best player by far. They, too, have been struggling to score and that’s because they just don’t have anyone that can consistently do so. In its last game when Granger was knocked out early, the Pacers scored 72 points at the Clip Joint. Both coaches are very unlikely to want an up-tempo game because both teams don’t have the capabilities right now of making a comeback. An up temp style will result in big runs that neither team wants nor can afford. Play: Indiana/Portland under 193½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Rocketman
Western Michigan @ Eastern Illinois
Play: Eastern Illinois +3
Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. My power ratings has Eastern Illinois winning this one by 1.04 points. We'll recommend a small play on Eastern Illinois tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets
The Cavs have struggled in H-Town since 1996, going 2-9 ATS. However, off the loss last night in Memphis, they should bounce back strong. They are 7-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. Even more impressive is that they are 17-2 ATS off a road loss the last two seasons. The Rockets are 20-37 ATS off an ATS win.
Play on: Cleveland
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Hornets/Wolves UNDER 194
The problem with the Hornets on the road this year is that they haven't been able to stop anyone, yet the Wolves are putting up only 90.7 ppg at home so I don't think that is going to be the same story here tonight. Minnesota has only scored or been scored on for more than 100 points once in their last four games, while the Hornets haven't scored more than 102 since back on November 19th. I think this one is low scoring tonight, so I'll go with the UNDER for a single unit.
Frank Jordan
Kentucky vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut -1
Kentucky may be number 4 in the country, 8-0 on the season, and coming off a win over the defending champs, but they are playing this game in New York which is a stone’s throw for Connecticut. Uconn is 6-1 and number 12 in the country and their only loss was to a good Duke team on a neutral site. Despite this technically being a neutral site at MSG Uconn fans travel well and with the crowd being pro Uconn look for the Huskies to feed of the crowd’s energy propelling them to the win. Play Connecticut
John Ryan
Golden State Warriors vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +2
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Jersey as they take on Golden State set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows an 72% probability that New Jersey will this game and earn back to back victories for the first time this season. I had them last night and also won a 10* Titan play OVER in that game as well. It is obvious that now that the losing streak is past, the team is far more relaxed and playing more up to their abilities and tem performance levels. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 51-20 ATS since 1996 for 72% winners. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a poor rebounding team that is out rebounded by opponents by 3+ per game and after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more. AiS shows an 88% probability that GS will shoot between 23 and 238 free throws in this game. Note that GS is just 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. NJ is a solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Take the Nets.
ALEX SMART
Kentucky @ Connecticut
PICK: Kentucky +1
Kentucky may have reached this point of the season by use of its explosive offense, but there's a reason that HC John Calipari came out this week and said that his team was "not as good as [its] record." The Cats haven't covered a spread in over two weeks, with the last one coming in the form of a 73-49 victory against Cleveland State on November 24th. Until they played North Carolina, they really hadn't come across a solid opponent this year, as Stanford was probably the next best test, and UK needed overtime to dismiss the Cardinal on a neutral court.
Still, Calipari's crew ranks 28th in the country in offensive output at 81.1 points per game, and ranks 13th in shooting percentage at 50.7%. Free throw shooting is a big, big problem though, as the Wildcats are only shooting 66.2% from the field as a team, and Calipari still has nightmares over his former school, Memphis, struggling from the line in a year that his team was talented enough to win all of the marbles.
However, if you thought that Kentucky's schedule has been weak so far this year, check out what UConn's looks like. Save a Preseason NIT loss to Duke, the Huskies haven't taken on one team that really has much of a chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament unless it wins its conference. Relatively tight home games against Harvard, Hofstra, Colgate, and William & Mary all resulted in ATS defeats and has to scare the heck out of HC Jim Calhoun. This is really Connecticut's last test before jumping into Big East play just before the New Year.
Opposing teams aren't having any luck shooting against the Huskies, as they're just connecting on 36.6% of their shots, but they're still scoring 65.1 points per game. The tempo of the game is forced by G Jerome Dyson and G Kemba Walker. The two have combined for 32 steals and 73 assists in just seven games, and when the offense is humming, they can force the tempo like no other team in the land.
Neither team has played their best basketball yet this season, which makes this a very tough game to handicap. The Cats are 11-3-1 ATS in their L/15 games against the Big East, and it feels like Calipari's squad is just a tad better than a youthful Connecticut team that is probably still trying to figure it out.
LARRY NESS
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
PICK: Los Angeles Lakers -10.5
One wonders if the schedule makers are ever going to make the Lakers leave Staples Center? The Lakers host the Jazz tonight, entering with the league's longest active winning streak (nine straight) and an overall 16-3 record on the season. They've played 15 of those 19 games at home whey are 13-2 but just 8-7 ATS. Should we all just give LA a 'pass' into The Finals? Kobe (28.9-5.5-3.9) looks as good as ever and LA was very smart regarding Gasol. They didn't rush him and he's returned looking healthy and sharp, averaging 17.8 PPG and 9.2 RPG in his first eight games. Bynum's looked outstanding (18.2-9.8) and if he stays healthy all season, LA will be better that last year's team come The Finals. I'd rather still have Ariza than Artest but it's not much of a difference. Fisher will be saved for the playoffs with Farmar and Brown getting plenty of minutes in the backcourt during the regular season. As for Odom (8.2-8.3-4.4), who WOULDN'T want this guy? Utah (12-8) has won eight of 10, after beating the Spurs 104-101 on Monday. Deron Williams (19.3-4.3-10.2) scored 17 points, including the go-ahead jumper with 22 seconds remaining. Carlos Boozer (22.5-10.9) had 27 points vs San Antonio and averaged 20.6-13.2 against the Lakers in Utah's five-game losing series last postseason. Los Angeles has won four of five and seven of the last nine meetings with the Jazz, who are winless in their last six visits to Staples Center. I'm laying the points with LA.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -3
Bottom Line: I'll take the Bucks at home where they are 7-3 this season laying a small number against a Raptors team that is just 4-9 on the road. This matchup has been one dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread with the home teams taking 5 of the last 7 against the number. Plus, the Bucks have been the much better team when playing without any rest, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Raptors are just 25-52-2 ATS in their last 79 games as an underdog and 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. We'll lay the points.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Over 205
Tough not to like the OVER tonight when Toronto heads to Milwaukee. The Raptors have scored 105 ppg on the road this year and given up 111.7 while the Bucks have scored 102.5 ppg at home while giving up 98.5.
Over the last five games Toronto has averaged 211 total ppg while the Bucks have given up 101 ppg. The last time these two teams met the Raptors won 115-106 and I see a similar type of score tonight in Milwaukee.
Karl Garrett
Duquesne +17 at WEST VIRGINIA
G-Man has hit 4 of my last 6 comp play releases.
Take the points tonight with Duquesne as they take on West Virginia in Morgantown.
These teams have met ever year since 1999, and while the Mountaineers are on a 6 game series winning streak, it is the Iron Dukes that have filled the wallet in 6 of the last 8 meetings against the spread.
West Virginia is playing their first game this month, as they last played on November 29th.
Duquesne has already gone toe-to-toe with Big East Pittsburgh, losing in double-overtime.
This is just too many points to lay.
G-Man on the Dukes plus the generous impost tonight.
4♦ DUQUESNE
Stephen Nover
Wisconsin -5 at UW GREEN BAY
Green Bay is going to be up for this game. Wisconsin hosts Marquette on Saturday in a far bigger in-state rivalry matchup.
But the line is still too short. Wisconsin is a much better team than Green Bay.
The Badgers are bigger, stronger and have a deeper backcourt. Normally I'd stay away from a road favorite with a key look-ahead game on deck.
But Bo Ryan, one of the best coaches in college basketball, won't let the Badgers look past Green Bay.
Wisconsin doesn't beat itself. That's a trademark of a Ryan-coached team. Guard Trevon Hughes is playing at a very high level right now for Wisconsin. He was just named the Big Ten Player of the Week.
The Phoenix is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) versus non-conference foes. The Badgers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times they've been road chalk.
3♦ WISCONSIN
Drew Gordon
Michigan at UTAH (pk)
18-9-1 roll over L28 Free Plays, incl. the Thunder Monday and BYU Tuesday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Michigan/Utah match up.
Once Michigan hit the beef of their early season schedule, we saw what this Wolverines team is really made of... 3 outright losses to Marquette, Alabama, and Boston College! So, then they go ahead and beat no-name Arkansas-Pine Bluff, shooting just under 43%, and this is the team you want to back versus a stifling Utes home defense tonight.
Did you see the Utes dominate Idaho State Saturday? They went up 40-15 by halftime, and limited the Bengals to 25% shooting for the half. Of course, nay-sayers will point to an ugly scond half of basketball, but that was just a young team taking their foot off the gas after dominating the first half of play. I believe we'll see a full-games worth of focus from the Utes this time around, and that' bad new for the Wolverines.
Other issue I see here is the size on this Utah team, that starts a 7-footer David Foster and 6-10 F Ken Tillie, both of which played excellent defensive game and contributed some on offense Saturday. That size will be critical in stopping the talented, but very inconsistent DeShawn Sims in this contest. We know Manny Harris will get his points, but if you can stop the foul prone Michigan frontcourt, then you can stop Michigan... Just ask Boston College!
Bottom line, granted these are two flawed teams, but if you're going to give me the Utes at home, at this price, vs. a road-weary Michigan squad (4-9-1 ATS L14 road games), I'll take it. Utah has the size and defense to win a close one here, and that's exactly what I expect will happen tonight.
Take Utah over Michigan in this college hoops match up.
2♦ UTAH
Michael Cannon
Kentucky +1 vs. Connecticut, at NEW YORK, NY
I am now 41-27-1 with my last 69 overall free plays after the Bobcats outright win last night!
Take Kentucky for the win over Connecticut in the SEC/Big East Invitational at Madison Square Garden.
I’m not buying into U-Conn’s ranking right now. They lost too much from last year’s team and they were completely outclassed in their loss to Duke back on Nov. 7. The Blue Devils are the only noteworthy team the Huskies have faced thus far and I feel that the Wildcats will expose them once again.
Kentucky held off a very talented North Carolina team on Saturday, 68-66. The fact the Wildcats were able to win despite committing 20 turnovers and shooting just 63 percent from the charity stripe speaks volumes about the potential this team has.
Connecticut may have the whining Jim Calhoun running the show still, but the Huskies don’t have the same stable of talent they had last year.
Take Kentucky as they grab the win.
3♦ KENTUCKY