Chris Jordan
Kentucky +1 vs. U Conn, at New York
All based on schedule strength, as the Huskies have run roughshod through the likes of William & Mary, Colgate, Hofstra, Louisiana State, Boston and Harvard. And before you say anything about LSU, make note the Tigers have lost to the two real competitive teams they've faced: the Huskies and ASU.
But the lone loss for U Conn - that would be against Duke, 68-59.
So what happens when Jim Calhoun throws is pups to these evergetic Wildcats who have also had their share of cupcakes, but come in after taking care of business against the other power from Tobacco Country - the Tar Heels of North Carolina?
John Calipari has everyone believing a title is coming back to Lexington for the first time since 1998, with this early 8-0 start to the season.
I like the way this offense is scoring points, but more importantly, Calipari has his troops playing a stifling style of defense to keep the points limited to 65.1 points per game. They're also crashing the boards and dominating the paint with their big men, ranking ninth in the nation with a rebound margin of 11.1 per game and fourth in the country with 8.3 blocked shots per contest.
Connecticut is always tough, I agree. But tonight Kentucky makes a statement with its second-straight big-time win.
5♦ KENTUCKY
Dominic Fazzini
Kentucky vs. Connecticut (pick) at New York
Took a loss with my complimentary selection Tuesday as the Nuggets fell apart in the fourth quarter at Charlotte. But I'm still 38-22 over the last 60 days, including a 21-9 run, and I will bounce back with a winner today!
Connecticut is no stranger to Madison Square Garden, having already played there twice this season. The Huskies beat LSU 81-55 and lost 68-59 to Duke at the world-famous arena last month, and coach Jim Calhoun has had good success in 74 games there in his career, going 44-30.
UConn's offense, except for the loss to Duke, has been solid this season, with the team averaging 77 points per game. And the Huskies are getting consistent scoring from Jerome Dyson (20.1 ppg), Stanley Robinson (15.4 ppg) and Kemba Walker (15.4 ppg).
Kentucky has gotten off to an 8-0 start in coach John Calipari's first year at the school, but the Wildcats seem ripe for a loss despite having defeated North Carolina 68-66 at home in their last game. In that game, Kentucky shot 57.1 percent in the first half and took a 15-point lead into halftime, but it took two free throws by freshman John Wall with 4.3 seconds left to put the Tar Heels away.
Wall is a star in the making, but the Wildcats start three freshmen and a sophomore, and I just don't see them getting the job done today against a UConn team that is quite familiar with playing big games.
The Huskies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral court, while Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and its last seven nonconference games. Take UConn to get the victory today.
3♦ CONNECTICUT
Jeff Benton
CS Fullerton at SAN DIEGO ST. -14
For Wednesday’s free play, I’ll head back to the college hardwood and lay the big points with San Diego State against Cal State Fullerton.
San Diego State is 6-2 on the season, with its two losses coming on the road. In fact, unlike most Division I schools, the Aztecs aren’t afraid to travel early in the season, as they’ve played five of their first eight contests away from San Diego. But in its three home games, SDSU has rolled by scores of 77-52, 86-53 and 89-48, easily cashing in its two lined home contests.
The Aztecs are loaded with talent and will be challenging UNLV (currently ranked 18th in the nation) for the Mountain West Conference title. On the other hand, Cal State Fullerton will be lucky to finish in the upper half of the below-average Big West. The Titans started the season with three straight victories, including a 68-65 overtime win at UCLA. But that victory doesn’t look all that impressive anymore now that we know the Bruins are really, really bad this year. Besides, since that 3-0 start, Fullerton has dropped consecutive games to non-Division I opposition (69-49 to Central Arkansas and 62-61 to Stephen F. Austin)!
The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against opponents with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five as an underdog of 13 points or more, while SDSU is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk and 6-2 when favored by 13 points or more. Lay the chalk.
5♦ SAN DIEGO ST.
Scott Delaney
Wisconsin at UW Green Bay
Not buying into the whole letdown theory.
The Badgers are always a physical team, and this year you can add athleticism to the mix.
I know it's very enticing to take the points with the home underdog here, but the Badgers have beaten the Phoenix in 10 consecutive years - including two games at Green Bay.
Wisconsin has won the last three games by an average of 18.3 points per contest.
I know the Phoenix have started the season red-hot, producing an 8-2 start through their first 10 games, and roll into this one on a four-game win streak, but they've yet to play a major-conference team yet.
Tonight their eyes are opened, as the Badgers apply intense pressure and roll to an easy win and cover.
5♦ WISCONSIN
Tony Weston
Georgetown comes through last night and delivers a solid Comp Play winner. I’m handing you another winner tonight as I’m taking the Cavaliers on the road at the Houston Rockets.
Despite last night’s fluke of a loss at the Grizzlies, the Cavaliers are still 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 games. In that stretch Cleveland is beating its opponents by 12 points per game (105.8-93.8).
Now the Cavs battle a Rockets team that’s only covered in 4 of 8 home games this year and has covered in just 3 of its last 8 games overall.
Houston will drop another one tonight as the Cavs beat up on the Rockets easily.
3♦ CAVALIERS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the team that WILL win the Horizon League... Wisconsin-Green Bay. Honestly, this play makes completely no sense... and that's why I like it so much. Last night's 25-dimer on Butler made all the sense in the world, yet it didn't pan out like it should have. You and I know things don't always work out how they appear on paper. We have a Big 10 powerhouse who just beat the mighty Duke Blue Devils last week in the Big 10/ACC challenge. In fact, their win put the Big 10 over the edge, winning the challenge for the first time ever. They play great defense, they shoot free throws well, and just don't let "lesser" teams beat them. They've never lost to the Phoenix in school history, so you can imagine how confident this Badgers team is going to be tonight. If you beat Duke, you simply don't lose to Wisconsin-Green Bay. All signs point to a Wisconsin win, and that's all the more reason I think the Phoenix pull the upset tonight. They do a really good job of switching between zone and man-to-man defense, and the newcomers have performed better than expected, offensively, to start the season. This team has a tremendous amount of talent and confidence, and playing at home might be just the thing that does the Badgers in tonight. I'm playing the Phoenix tonight as home underdogs.
3♦ WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
O.C. Dooley
Kentucky +1
It goes without saying that the Southeast Conference remains king on the football field, but the various teams from the SEC basketball draw are coming off a very rough campaign which makes tonight an opportunity for that league to make a statement versus an opponent from right now basketball’s best conference (Big East). Actually Kentucky made a statement for the league back on Saturday when they defeated North Carolina but that was just a home affair. For those of you who watched Kentucky’s two-point win against North Carolina Saturday on CBS-TV, you saw the Wildcats almost cough up a 19-point lead and they ultimately failed to cover the spread on a meaningless last second 3-point shot by the Tarheels. The main reason why Kentucky failed to cover the 3-point spread on Saturday was because superstar guard John Wall (18 points, 7’ assists per game) sat on the bench much of the second-half due to leg cramps. Kentucky (8-0) is off to their best start since way back in the 1993 campaign as new head coach John Calipari is already working his magic. What I like best about Calipari is that he refuses to let his players gloat about that North Carolina triumph during the weekend. According to public comments Calipari is expecting his Wildcats to quote get “punched in the mouth” tonight on the road because his troops at times play too casual. Tonight’s ESPN clash is a major event since Connecticut and Kentucky are meeting for just the SECOND time ever on the same floor with Jim Calhoun as one of the head coaches. Connecticut may be off to a solid 6-1 start but they have FAILED to cover the spread 5 times already in part due to a “soft” schedule. In the Huskies only big test of this new campaign they lost against Duke and tonight is another big test for a Connecticut team that has had very little bench production. A grand total of 3 Connecticut starters have been forced to log on average at least 34 minutes per contest which is excessive. In a game that Kentucky dominated this past Saturday but failed to cover in the waning seconds, I feel there will be ATS justice for the Wildcats tonight