Steve Janus
Indiana State -5.5
The Drake Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset on Saturday by knocking off Wichita State 93-86 in triple overtime. To give you an idea of how big a win that was, the Bulldogs were 9-point underdogs on their home floor. I think it will be extremely hard for Drake to bounce back with another big effort on the road against Indiana State, who comes into this game off a couple of nice upset wins of their own against Northern Iowa at home and at Evansville.
A lot of people will look at Drake's 79-64 win at home over Indiana State earlier this season, and quickly take the 5.5-points, but the Bulldogs are not the same team on the road. They are just 3-7 away from home this season. Another thing to take into consideration is the Bulldogs win over the Sycamores was their first in the last five meetings between these two schools. The last two times they visited Indiana State they were beat by double-digits, and that's exactly what I expect to happen tonight.
Indiana State is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 23-10 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997. Drake on the other hand is just 3-11 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Craig Trapp
Davidson vs. Furman
Play: Davidson -5½
Favorite has owned this series ATS going 8-1 L9 head to head. Even better DAV pounded this same Furman team about 5 weeks ago winning by 20+. Davidson is one of our NCAA upseters to watch as they have a very good solid team. Davidson is coming off tough loss so expect them to really come out and blowout Furman.
MTi Sports
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Miami Heat
Miami's trend number two from the 2011 NBA Handicapping Bible reveals, MIA002: The Heat are 12-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since March 21, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. Milwaukee's trend number six from the 2011 NBA Handicapping Bible reveals MIL006:,The Bucks are 0-12 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since February 15, 2006 with at most one day of rest off a win in which they never trailed. Consider the Heat.
Nelly
San Diego State - over Boise State
Early in the year it looked like Boise State might be able to compete well in the Mountain West, opening the season the season 10-4 but the Broncos have since evened their record at 10-10 with six straight losses, the last five of which came in conference play. Boise State normally has been a strong performer at home but they have now dropped three in a row at home and the road results continue to be ugly, now 1-7 S/U and ATS in road and neutral games. San Diego State is 18-3 and should be a lock for the NCAA tournament but while the first two losses were impressive, falling in tight games with Baylor and Creighton, last weekend’s 17-point loss at Colorado State will not be viewed as kindly. There are some nice wins, beating California and UNLV, as well as road wins at Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming but there is still some work to do. This is also a team that now has lost its margin for error in the conference race, voiding the earlier upset over the Rebels. This is certainly a critical game as the Aztecs need to get right back on track with a convincing win. San Diego State is 13-1 at home and the have won by double-digits on average at home. This will be Boise State’s first trip to face San Diego State and it will be a tough place for the Broncos to turn things around.
Rob Veno
Memphis at Southern Miss
Play: Under 133.5
With the conference lead at stake combined with Southern Mississippi’s determination for revenge against Memphis, have to believe this will be a tightly contested affair. Recent history, including this season’s 60-58 Tigers win, has shown these teams to play hard fought, defensive battles as three of the last four have stayed under the total. Additional technical trends also point in that direction as Memphis has gone under in this price range five of its last six C-USA road games and Southern Miss is 64% under the total at home (16 of 25) the last three years. Fundamentally, each team is strong defensively permitting only 58.9 (Memphis) and 63.6 (Southern Mississippi) points per game in league play. Rebounding is a solid asset for each team so can’t expect a lot of second chances here. Expect a moderate tempo contest with contested shots for the entire 40 minutes as these teams keep this one under the total.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ Milwaukee Over 194: The Bucks don't look like they have missed Andrew Bogut as they have hit 100+ points in their last 4 games, including hitting 100 points on the road vs a very good Chicago defense. Tonight this improving offensive team gets a crack at a Miami team that has not has not been that great on defense this year. Miami comes in allowing 96.2 ppg on the year, while on the road they have allowed 101.2 ppg, which includes allowing 98 points to a pathetic Detroit offense in their last game. Milwaukee has done a good job at the defensive end this year, allowing just 94.2 ppg overall and 93.1 ppg at home, and they did hold the Heat to just 82 points in the last meeting, but that was without Wade and with Wade back in this one they will not be held that low in points here. The Heat come in ranked second in the league in scoring at 104 ppg, 1st in FG% (48.6%) and 6th in 3pt shooting (38.2%) and with a healthy Wade here they should be able to hit at least the century mark here, while the Bucks hit at least 95 points of their own. I look for this game to be played in the 200's.
More later
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -3 over Indiana
Since Jan, 18th, the Pacers have played eight games. This will be their ninth game and ninth straight time that they've had to board a plane and head to their next destination. That's nine plane rides in 14 days. Playing an undermanned Nets team last night (New Jersey had 10 players dressed), the Pacers were forced to the limit, eventually winning by seven in a game they led by three with 50 seconds remaining. By the time it ended, the Pacers were gassed. Under these conditions, Indiana is now being asked again to travel to another time zone and play the relentless Timberwolves. Minnesota has won three of four with only loss over that span coming against the Lakers in a game they trailed by 18 and took a 2-point lead with about four minutes to go before losing. The T-Wolves’ tenacity makes them difficult to play against when you're tired. They've been at home two of the past three games, they were off last night and they figure to be the more prepared team. Indiana also plays the world champion Mavericks on Friday night and in terms of favorable situations, they don't get much better than this one. Play: Minnesota -3 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Rocketman
George Mason @ Delaware
Play: George Mason -5.5
George Mason comes in with an 18-5 SU record on the season while Delaware is 9-12 overall on the year. George Mason is 5-1 SU and ATS last 3 years as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Delaware is 1-22 SU and 6-16 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. George Mason is allowing only 63.3 points per game overall this year and 62.4 points per game on the road this season. George Mason is 5-0 SU overall vs Delaware the past 3 years. Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Blue Hens are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Blue Hens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Blue Hens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. We'll recommend a small play on George Mason tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit San Antonio Spurs -5.5
Last month San Antonio posted a 6-point home win over Houston, and I believe it will win by at least as many tonight. The Spurs are an impressive 10-1 at home where they are winning by an average of 12.5 points. The Rockets, meanwhile, are 3-6 away from home where they are losing by an average of 5.8 points.
This isn't a good spot for Houston either. Consider that plays against underdogs off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, provided they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and are playing a team with a winning record, are 28-8 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 4.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 8.8 points.
It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.
The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Spurs.
NHL Predictions
Blue Jackets / Kings Under 5
Like mentioned the Blue Jackets were shut out last night, and they have now scored 2 or fewer goals in 5 straight games. Over that span the Blue Jackets are averaging just 1 goal per game. Columbus is averaging less than 2.2 goals per game on the road and 2.24 goals per game overall. Clearly that is last in the NHL right? Wrong, the Los Angeles Kings are averaging just 2.14 goals per game which is good for last in the league. The Kings still have a decent 24-16-10 record as they are holding opponents to just 2.10 goals per game (3rd in the league in goals against). Tonight Columbus will go with Curtis Sanford who has been a much better goalie for the Jackets, going -11-4 with a 2.57 GAA and .912 SV% this year. Jonathan Quick is 21-12-9 on the year with a 1.88 GAA and .934 SV% and is expected to get right back between the pipes coming off the All Star weekend. Take note the UNDER is 16-6-5 in the Kings last 27 home games, and 12-3-1 in their last 16 vs a team with a winning % less than .400. These two teams have met twice this season - one was a 1-0 Columbus victory and the other was a 2-1 Los Angeles win. I don't see much changing here with the two lowest scoring teams in the league. Take the UNDER at a generous price.
Bob Balfe
Bulls -2 over Sixers
The Sixers played the Magic the other day in a complete slopfest. If you let a team cover when they only score 69 points it means you are not that good. If Philly can beat Chicago then I will start to believe in this young team. The Sixers have played nobody this year and this is a very favorable line for the Bulls. Take Chicago
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Joseph's +138 over RICHMOND
St. Joe's has dropped four of five but they have the exact same record as the Spiders in the conference. That allows us to take back a nice price on the stronger squad. The Hawks simply have the better shooters and they're much more battle tested than Richmond. The Hawks have played the 23rd toughest schedule while Richmond's strength of schedule is ranked 108th. When we look at recent games, we see the Hawks played three of the top four teams in the conference (Xavier, UMass and Temple) while the Spiders are coming off games against Fordham and St. Bonnies. St. Joe's has wins over Creighton, Villanova and Penn State, not to mention a close loss to Seton Hall. With four losses in their last five, the Hawks will take nothing for granted here in an important conference matchup. Play: #731 St. Joseph's +138 (Risking 2 units).
We're also playing the following game:
TEXAS A&M +7 over Baylor
Play: Texas A&M +7 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
David Banks
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas Jayhawks (17-4, 10-10 ATS) will look to get back to their winning ways in the Big 12 on Wednesday night when the Oklahoma Sooners (13-7, 7-9 ATS) come a calling to Lawrence; tip-off from Phog Allen Fieldhouse is scheduled to go live on ESPNU at 9:00 ET.
Though the conference slate hasn’t treated OU as nicely as the non-conference slate did, Coach Lon Kruger’s squad looks to be on the up and up and destined to represent in one of the lesser post season tournaments. The Sooners enter tonight’s tough road challenge a win away from matching last season’s 14 win campaign, but face a steep uphill climb over their next three against KU, Iowa State, and Mizzou. However, they’ll look to sweep their Sunflower State rivals on the road after scoring the outright 63-60 win at K-State over the weekend. The true road win was the Sooners first of the season after falling to Cincinnati, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M in their previous four road tussles (1-3 ATS). For Oklahoma to have any shot in this one, Steven Pledger – the team’s leading scorer – will have to put forth an effort reminiscent to the one he posted last Saturday when he went off for 30 points on 11-of-17 shooting.
For the first time this season, Kansas will take to the conference hardwood a loser after coming up short in Ames over the weekend. Iowa State gave them one of their toughest tests at home in the team’s first meeting of the season back in mid January, so it came as no surprise to see them fall woefully short of covering the seven-point spread in the 72-64 outright defeat. Because of falling at Hilton Coliseum for the first time in seven years, the Jayhawks lead atop the Big 12 standings has been trimmed to one-game over both Missouri and Baylor. Expect a solid effort by Kansas in this spot since the Sooners beat them over the course of the first 20 minutes (34-33) of their first meeting back on January 7th before blowing their doors off in the second half en route to the 72-61 road win and cover. KU checks in an unblemished 11-0 SU & 6-4 ATS in their 10 lined true home games to date.
To say that Kansas has dominated Oklahoma on the hardwood much like the Sooners own the Jayhawks on the gridiron would be putting it lightly. In fact, Oklahoma possesses just one outright win (2005) in the team’s L/10 overall meetings, but they’ve split versus the ATS proceedings comfortably covering both match-ups last season as double-digit underdogs. The first go round snapped a string of four straight ‘overs’ dating back to the 2008 season. OU’s covered just four of their L/13 road games and only two of their L/9 versus the Big 12, while Kansas has put forth a 9-2-1 ATS tally following its L/12 SU losses.
Matt Rivers
Towson +13.5
Yes I know it's a little crazy to back what is the worst team in division one on the road like this but Hofstra is just not worthy of being such a favorite and after finally getting a victory maybe, just maybe, the Tigers' confidence will be a little higher in this game. If you view it as glass half empty then 1-22 is still as pathetic as it comes and today's visitors have as low of a downside as possible. So yes the Tigers can get blown out by anybody, I get that, but Hofstra has now lost three straight and 9 of their last 10 ballgames. Plus they have been scoring routinely in the 40's and 50's and are a team that lost by a bunch against Wagner and Boston University earlier in the season so the glory days of the former Flying Dutchmen is just that, the glory days.
I'm not expecting Towson to get a second straight victory at all but I am expecting at least 45 points and that means the Pride will need to get in the 60's in order to cover and that truly may not happen. The Pride have averaged literally 50 points in their past three games and are a flat out bad team right now. They no longer have that solid home-court advantage and a great record when sleeping in their own beds when Tom Pecora was around.
Marcus Damas and the Tigers are pretty terrible and I'm not trying to sugarcoat things one bit. They scored 27 points against Drexel and 38 at Old Dominion but they also only lost 57-50 against what's shaping up to be a pretty darn solid Virginia squad so it's not all gloom and doom. Plus the Dragons and Monarchs are far superior to the Pride and after just getting that elusive first victory I don't see this thing getting too out of hand in the end.
Bill Tanner
Oklahoma +16.5
Out of the Big 12 – the Oklahoma Sooners will take on the Kansas Jayhawks. Lon Kruger’s Sooners are 13-7 overall and 3-5 in conference play. Oklahoma is in 7th; which is tied with Texas A+M. The Jayhawks are 17-4 overall and 7-1 in the league, which places them a game ahead of Missouri and Baylor.
The Kansas Jayhawks come into the game after licking their wounds on the road at Iowa State. The loss was the first Big 12 loss of the season. Kansas also does not want to look ahead, but they are at Missouri this weekend. The Jayhawks are led by Thomas Robinson, with 17.5 points per game.
For Oklahoma, they need a signature win, and this would be it, on the road. The SOoners did pick up a huge road win at Kansas State, to get things back in the right direction. Oklahoma before that, fell to Texas A+M and Baylor. The Sooners are led in scoring by Steven Pledger with 17.8 points per game.
The Oklahoma Sooners have a tall task playing at Phog Allen Fieldhouse already. Oklahoma is 1-4 away from home, while the Jayhawks have an 11-1 record at home this season. The Sooners are 7-9 against the spread, while Kansas is an even 10 out of 20. The Jayhawks are a 16.5 point favorite in this game.