WUNDERDOG
Houston at San Antonio
Pick: Over 196
There will be plenty of offense in this game tonight. This shaky Houston defense faces a San Antonio offense that is sixth in the league in points scored (97.9 ppg) and second in assists, as they run right at opponents with Tony Parker and their great depth. The OVER is 4-1 in the Rockets last five against the Western Conference, as well as 21-10 OVER the total in their last 31 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 15-7 in the Spurs last 22 games playing on one days rest. When these teams meet they love to run the floor: The OVER is 7-3 in their last ten meetings. Play the Rockets/Spurs OVER the total.
Dave Price
1 Unit Miami Heat -6.5
Back on Jan. 22, Milwaukee came down to Miami and beat the Heat by 9 points. Expect the Heat to have their revenge here. Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent, as long as that foe is coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, has produced a 17-3 ATS record the last 5 seasons. We'll take Miami.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Iowa Hawkeyes +1
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, expect Iowa to rebound at home against a team it has already defeated on the road this season. Sunday's double-digit loss at Indiana actually serves us well considering the Hawks are 8-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more under coach Fran McCaffery. Iowa has won by an average score of 73.8 to 66.1 in this situation. The Hawkeyes are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Iowa.
Kyle Hunter
Towson vs. Hofstra
Play: Under 119½
Towson finally got a win in their last outing, ending the nation's longest losing streak. Don't think for a minute that means that Towson is going to turn things around in a big way. The Tigers can't score and I expect them to go right back into the losing column tonight. Only two of Towson's last 12 games have gone above this total. Hofstra isn't efficient offensively, and I fully expect a very sloppy low scoring game here. Take the under.
Red Dog Sports
VCU at William and Mary
Play: Over 125
These two played earlier in the year and VCU won in overtime as the Tribe missed a late shot and some free throws that kept them from winning. W&M should be motivated after the close loss and being at home. Home games for W&M have seen scores reach 147, 153, 148, 127, 139, 134 and a recent 112 vs. defesnive minded Drexel. The Tribe get points from McDowell, Rusthoven, Rum, Boatner, Thornton and Britt. While Reddic, Burgess and Theus can score for VCU. VCU likes to press and it should allow them some steals for layups. I think we see a score that gets to 130 and an over.
King Creole
Houston +5.5
Two nights ago, Speedee and the gang played AGAINST Houston.... as the 3* Dog play on the TIMBERWOLVES brought home the bacon (outright DD underdog win). But on Wednesday, we'll be playing 'ON' the Rockets... thanks to some interesting patterns that have hit pretty consistently in the 2001/2012 season. Sharp players already know that in the NBA we want to fade any team that's returning home and laying points of a 3-game or more road trip (like the Spurs). And we want to play on any road dog that's coming in off multiple home games (like Houston).
24-10 ATS this season: All COnference underdogs playing off a SU loss (HOU) vs any opponent off a DD SU win (San Ant). These teams have gone 10-1 ATS when they are a dog of +7 or LESS points (HOU).
Houston was a home fav on Monday and lost outright to Minnesota.
9-2 ATS this year: All DIVISION teams playing off a SU non-div home fav loss (HOU).
As mentioned above, the Spurs return home off multiple road games...
1-8 ATS last 3 years: All home favs playing 3 or more road games and off BB ATS wins (Spurs covered vs Memphis and Dallas in last two)... vs any opp off a SU favorite loss (HOU).
Individually, we note that SAN ANTONIO is 1-9 ATs in the last 3 years as home favs of -5 > points off 3 or more road games...
So we have an ideal situation. A home teams off a DOG win (Spurs) vs an opp off a FAV loss (HOU).
2-12 ATS this season: All teams off a SU dog win (San Ant) vs any opp of a SU fav loss (HOU).
As mentioned above, Houston takes to the road off 4 straight home games...
14-4 ATS last 3 years: All division road teams off 4+ home games (HOU) and a SU loss. These teams have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS vs any opp off a SU win (San Anto).
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Milwaukee Over 194: The Bucks don't look like they have missed Andrew Bogut as they have hit 100+ points in their last 4 games, including hitting 100 points on the road vs a very good Chicago defense. Tonight this improving offensive team gets a crack at a Miami team that has not has not been that great on defense this year. Miami comes in allowing 96.2 ppg on the year, while on the road they have allowed 101.2 ppg, which includes allowing 98 points to a pathetic Detroit offense in their last game. Milwaukee has done a good job at the defensive end this year, allowing just 94.2 ppg overall and 93.1 ppg at home, and they did hold the Heat to just 82 points in the last meeting, but that was without Wade and with Wade back in this one they will not be held that low in points here. The Heat come in ranked second in the league in scoring at 104 ppg, 1st in FG% (48.6%) and 6th in 3pt shooting (38.2%) and with a healthy Wade here they should be able to hit at least the century mark here, while the Bucks hit at least 95 points of their own. I look for this game to be played in the 200's.
New Jersey/ Detroit Under 183: Really hate to do this because i do not believe that are smarter than me or anyone of us here at pregame, but I have to agree with the Sharps on this one. The piston have been pathetic on offense this year as they have averaged just 85.7 ppg overall and that includes 81.8 ppg on the road. This team just can't scored and it has been even worse in their last 3 games as they have averaged just 80.7 ppg over that stretch. Also hurting this team in this one is the fact that this is their 5 game in 6 nights, so tired shooting legs should come into play. The Nets have started to score mor of late, but they are still a team this is averaging 91.9 ppg overall and just 88.2 ppg on 38.6% shooting at home. That's really sad. Even with a couple of bad defenses, I just don't see either team hitting 90 points in this one. HEY TRENDS--- NEW JERSEY is 19-8 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
Portland/ Charlotte Under 183.5:Just like the play above we have a truly horrible offensive team in the Bobcats in this one tonight as they come in averaging 89.1 ppg overall, 86.6 ppg on the road and a very pathetic 79.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Ok so now they get to face a Portland team that has allowed just 90.6 ppg at home and 87.6 ppg in their last 5 games overall. Not sure we can expect too much out of the Bobcats in this one. Portland can score at home as they have averaged 104 ppg there, but will they? How much energy on offense will they use here knowing that they really don't need a ton of points to win this one.? I expect the Blazers to tone it down some on offense tonight, while the Bobcats should be held to right around 80 points. This game should be played in the mid-170s at best.
1 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA +1.5 over Chicago: My Sixers are off to a fine start this year, but all they keep hearing is how they haven't beaten anyone yet. Well that ends tonight as they take a big game for probably the best team in the league.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Bradley/ Evansville Under 146: Evansville has been solid at the offensive end this year as they have averaged 74 ppg overall and 73.5 ppg on the road. The Purple Aces have also averaged 82.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall but two of those games did go to OT and tonight they will be facing a Bradley team that has been respectable at home, holding teams to 70.2 ppg for the year. Evansville has not been a great defensive team this year as they have allowed 74.8 ppg overall and 79.9 ppg on the road, but they will be taking on a Bradley team that is struggling on offense as they have averaged just 55.7 ppg in their last 3 games and in the first meeting they were able to score just 67 points on this bad Evansville defensive team. Bradley should really look to slow this game and even if they are able to hit 65 points in this one I don't see the Purple Aces hitting 82 points to make this one go Over. I expect this one to stay in the 130's and not even hit the 140 mark. Evansville will get their points, but Bradley just can't score enough right now for this one to go Over. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in all games where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points if a team (EVANSVILLE) allowed 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival vs an opponent off a road loss. This play is 32-7 the last 5 seasons.
4 UNIT PLAY
Toledo +14.5 over AKRON: On the surface it would look like this game should be a walk in the park for the Zips, as they have taken 4 of the last 5 in this series by DD and they are 8-1 at home this year, while outscoring those opponents by 16.1 ppg, but I feel that Toledo has more than enough to keep this one close. The Rockets have actually played better on the road (4-4) than at home (5-7) and they have been outscored by just 1.9 ppg on the road. The Rockets were blowout in their first 2 MAC rad games, but their last 2 have been decided by 3 points or less and they even won outright at Miami as 8.5 dogs.Akron has put up 81.6 ppg at home, but this rocket team has been playing very good defense of late as they have allowed just 55.0 ppg in their last 4 games. Despit a couple of blowouts they have suffered, the Rockets have been outscored by just 3.7 ppg in MAC, while the Zips have outscored their MAC foes by just 4.2 ppg, despite the 6-1 conference record. Rockets should keep this one close.
3 UNIT PLAYS
VCU/ William & Mary Over 123.5: Neither of these teams are a run and gun team, but I still believe this game has a chance to hit at least 130. The Tribe has had some problems scoring on the road this year as they are off 2 road games in which they scored just 91 total points, but at home this team has been a bit better. The Tribe has averaged 63.4 ppg on their home floor, including 61.5 ppg in their last 4 at home. They will be taking on a VCU squad that has allowed 60.2 ppg on the road this year and that's ALL I will need out of the Tribe here. VCU is not an explosive offense, but they do average a solid 67.3 ppg overall and 69.5 ppg on the road. 69 points would be very nice here cause even if W&M would be held to 55 points we would still get the over. I don't think the Rams will be held below 70 points in this one as they take on a Tribe team that has allowed 69.6 ppg overall, including 74 ppg at home. As I stated at the top I expect 130+ in this one, giving us an easy play on the Over. KEY TRENDS--- VA COMMONWEALTH is 15-3 OVER after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 18-5 OVER after 6 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
Georgia State -5 over NC WILMINGTON: Boy did I miss the boat on this one as I should have played it at 3.5 or even 4. Still I have Georgia State winning by at least 8, so the 5 spot doesn't frighten me. The Panthers are 6-5 in the conference and have won the last 3 in this series by at least 5 points in each game. GSU may be just 4-5 on the road this year, but that's ok as the Seahawks are just 4-5 at home. Overall the offenses are pretty even, but the Seahawks do come in struggling as they have averaged just 59.8 ppg in their last 5 games. While the offenses are mainly even, there is a big edge that goes to the Panthers at the defensive end as they have allowed just 58.6 ppg on 37.7% shooting on the year, while the Seahawks have allowed 70.1 ppg overall and 69 ppg at home. The Seahawks have lost 3 in a row, which includes allowing a Townson to break a 41 game losing streak, and they have also lost their last 3 at home. Georgia State is playing better, they are better and Wilmington just doesn't have the defense to keep this one close.
Missouri State/ Wichita State Over 132: Using my little formula of averaging out each teams last 5 games, their conference games and their home/ away games I come up with 139.3 points for this one. Wichita State likes to push tempo and they come in averaging 78.2 ppg overall and 77 ppg in the MVC. In their last 3 games they have hit the 80 point mark in all 3 games and they have shot a solid 48.4% in their last 5 games overall. The Bears have been a decent defensive team this year, but they have allowed 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The Bears on offense have been very solid at home as they have put up 67.7 ppg overall and 69.9 ppg at home. They push tempo some, but they also shoot pretty well (44.4% ) and they hit their FT's 73.1%. I just don't see how both of these teams can't hit at least 66 points in this one. This game should hit at least 140. KEY TRENDS--- MISSOURI ST is 25-13 OVER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons and 16-5 OVER when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Georgetown/ UConn Over 126.5: Google Play. Have struggled in these plays of late, but here goes. Gonna look to the Over in this one. Both teams are really desperate for a win and I expect them to open the game up. Both teams will run if given the chance and in their last game the Huskies were not given the chance and they were able to muster just 48 points vs the Irish. Georgetown has averaged 70.6 ppg overall and 71.4 ppg at home and would love to push the ball in this one, so they don't have to play UConn n in their half court defense. With Boatright back and having a game under his belt the Huskies should be a bit better on offense and will look to push the ball as well, so they don't get caught playing that Georgetown half court defense that has allowed just 53.7 ppg at home. Both teams really need to open up the offense a bit and tat has me expecting a running game. This is also a very important game for both so it should be tight as well, giving us the chance for late FT's or OT.
Ball State +5.5 over BUFFALO: BALL ST is 22-8 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 3 seasons, while BUFFALO is 4-13 ATS after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. Buffalo may be 8-1 at home, but Ball State has played well on the road in the MAC, going 3-1, with their lone loss being by just 4 at Ohio. I feel they can keep it close here as well.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Colorado State +14 over UNLV: Had CSU not just made a huge upset this game would be rated higher, but I will take them right here. I feel that CSU has enough offense in this one to keep it close. UNLV by no more than 10. COLORADO ST is 18-5 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons, while UNLV is 8-20 ATS in home games on Wednesday games since 1997.
Baylor/ Texas A&M Under 129: TEXAS A&M is 16-5 UNDER in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game since 1997, while BAYLOR is 11-3 UNDER wh