DAVE COKIN
MISSOURI STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA
PLAY: NORTHERN IOWA -12.5
I really cannot pinpoint the reason, other than the fact they weren’t playing good basketball. But whatever was ailing Northern Iowa for the better part of this season seems to have been remedied. The Panthers are in their best form of the campaign and I like their chances of extending the current win streak tonight.
Missouri State was an upset winner over UNI in the earlier meeting, and that was a pretty bad game for the Panthers. They seemed to have the proceedings pretty well in hand midway through the second half. But Northern Iowa went ice cold down the stretch and Missouri State got the surprising 59-58 victory.
I’ll be very surprised if there’s anything resembling that suspense this evening. Northern Iowa is unlikely to take the Bears for granted, as they might well have done in the prior hookup. That’s bad news for the Bears, who are a gritty bunch but simply are not very talented.
Missouri State cannot shoot the basketball. The numbers are disturbingly bad. The Bears get points for adhering to Paul Lusk’s system and working hard to get higher percentage shots. But they’re just not very good at actually getting the ball to go into the basket.
That’s likely to be a problem here as Northern Iowa is starting to find its rhythm, and if the Panthers are sharp again tonight, I don’t see that there’s much chance Missouri State is going to be able to hang in.
I know I’ve mentioned this before, but as it applies here, I’ll do so again. I’m an advocate of backing superior teams in same season revenge if they have positive momentum on their side. UNI qualifies on that count, as they’ve rolled to four straight wins and covers. I like the chances for the Panthers to extend that run tonight, and I’m willing to lay the points with Northern Iowa in the process.
Scott Spreitzer
Atlanta at Chicago
Play: Atlanta -2½
Ugly second half last time out for Atlanta, ending in their second loss to Orlando in as many games. The Hawks held an 11 point lead through three quarters, but got out-scored 45-27 in the fourth quarter and OT in the loss. The Hawks allowed the Magic to make nearly 50% of their shots, an anomaly, considering Atlanta ranks 8th in the NBA in FG percentage allowed. I expect the Hawks to play an intense brand of defense tonight and they're catching the Bulls at an opportune time. Not only is Chicago banged-up, but they're playing their first home game following a 7 game, 12 night road trip. This also marks their fourth game in six nights, and Chicago has been getting lit-up on the defensive end, allowing their last six opponents to average 110 ppg. The Bulls have dropped four straight ATS at home and they're 1-8 ATS in their last nine when playing on one day of rest. We'll back the Hawks.
Heath Mac
Atlanta at Chicago
Play: Atlanta -2½
We don’t love the Hawks on the road this season, but we do like the small lay here against a lost Bulls side. It has certainly been confirmed that Jimmy Butler is the Bull’s most important player as although they weren’t playing well prior to his injury, they have looked woeful since. Although all games have been on the road, the Bulls have lost to the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets in their last 3 – hardly a tough run. The Bulls are a poor 10-16 ATS at home this season, including 5-10 ATS against East conference opposition.
Although they have been inconsistent, the Hawks are still talented and will feature in the post season. They should be able to do enough to win and get the cover here.
The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Bulls are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 vs. NBA Southeast and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Jim Feist
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Under 209
The Boston Celtics have been very hot, anchored by a good defense, No. 10 in points allowed and No. 4 in field goal shooting defense. This is the second of a back to back spot and the under is 5-1 in the Celtics last six games playing on no days rest. The L.A. Clippers can do it all, No. 7 in the NBA in scoring, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 5 in field goal shooting defense. The under is 7-0 in the Clippers last seven road games and 8-2 under overall. The Under is also 7-1 when the Clippers face the Eastern Conference. And when these teams clash the under is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings.
Bob Harvey
Raptors vs. Wolves
Play: Raptors -6
The Toronto Raptors look to continue their dominance of the Minnesota Timberwolves when the two teams meet tonight. Toronto is going for its ninth consecutive time and 21st in the past 22 meetings dating back to January 29, 2011.
The Raptors (35-16, 29-22 ATS) have won nine of their last games and are heading into the All-Star with a boatload of momentum with victories in 14 of their past 15 outings. The All-Star backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry continues to lead the way. DeRozan had 17 in Monday's 103-89 victory over the Pistons while Lowry added 25 points and seven assists against Detroit.
The Timberwolves (16-37, 23-29 ATS) continue to get stellar play from Karl-Anthony Towns who leads all NBA rookies with 29 double-doubles. Towns has posted eight consecutive double-doubles and is averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds during the stretch. Andrew Wiggins has seven 30-point outings this season but tallied just 15 points in the loss to New Orleans after averaging 27.3 points over the previous three games.
Toronto is 16-10 SU and ATS on the road compared to Minnesota’s 8-19 SU home record (8-18-1 ATS). They've taken seven of eight on the road in their 14-1 span.
The Raptors are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Minnesota and 21-6 in the past 27 games.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings while Minnesota is 4-0 to the OVER in its past four games.
Ben Burns
Nebraska vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin
The coaching change a distant memory, Wisconsin is playing its best basketball these days. The Badgers check in off a double-digit win over Ohio State and with a 5-0 SU/ATS record over their past five games.
The Huskers are also off a big win. However, it was a costly one. Senior forward Shavon Shields suffered a concussion and won't be at tonight's game. He hasn't even been able to attend classes this week and its been emotional for the entire team. Shields is both a skilled scorer and an inspirational leader. He's started more than 100 consecutive games for this team; only five other players in school history can say that. I believe he's going to be missed.
With an O/U line in the mid-high 130s, the pace figures to favor the Badgers. Nebraska is 8-18-1 ATS (5-22 SU) the last 27 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is 18-8-1 ATS (25-2 SU) the last 27 times it played a home game with a total in the 135 to 139.5 range.
The Huskers won last season's meeting here by 15 points. Given the way they're playing right now and with Nebraska playing sans Shields, another double-digit win won't surprise. Consider laying the points.
David Banks
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Portland Trailblazers -4.5
The Rockets get a shot at redemption when they travel to Portland on Wednesday night. The Trail Blazers got 21 points and 10 assists from Damian Lillard in a 96-79 win over Houston just last week on Feb. 6. It was Portland’s sixth win in its past seven games.
Houston’s leading scorer James Harden had a season-high 10 turnovers in the loss. He did manage a game-high 33 points, but it wasn’t enough. Portland had six players in double figures and put the clamps on the rest of the Rockets’ lineup. If they do that again on Wednesday, the Rockets (27-26) will fall again. Houston needs to get back on the winning track as they are losing ground in the Western Conference race.
Harden is still one of the NBA’s elite players averaging 27.8 points and 7.0 assists per game. Houston is among the leaders in scoring (104.9 ppg) with Harden and Dwight Howard (14.2 ppg, 11.9 rpg) leading the way. The Rockets have not fared so well against the league’s better teams falling to San Antonio and Oklahoma City before the loss to Portland. Houston also faces the NBA’s best on Wednesday night when they travel to Golden State.
For Portland, Lillard is among the league’s best-kept secrets. He rivals Harden averaging 24 points and 7.3 assists per game. Guard C.J. McCollum is another gem. A second-year pro out of Lehigh, McCollum averages 20.8 points and 4.2 assists. Playing at home, the Trail Blazers will be tough to beat.
Chase Diamond
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Clippers +1
This game features the 35-17 Clippers and the 31-23 Celtics. Normally I would not play a team playing the last game on a long road trip but the Clippers come in off a day of rest and the Celtics played last night in Milwaukee losing to the Bucks. Clippers survived a scare in Philly almost losing to the Sixers. I think that was a wake up call and they will come in full force tonight. Clippers are 18-9 on the road and have won 3 games straight and if they win tonight they will have swept there east coast trip. I love the value here getting the Clippers around a PK. Clippers are 5-1 last 6 meetings of these two teams.
Will Rogers
Hornets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -4
The Indiana Pacers have won back-to-back games, and four of their last five at home. They host the Charlotte Hornets tonight, and Charlotte comes in as winners of four of it's last five overall. Three of those wins came at home, and wins on the road have been few and far between for the Hornets. My money is on Indiana.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Pacers have won eight of their last 10 versus Charlotte, and five straight at home versus the Hornets. The Pacers have been a great bet versus conference rivals, going 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 versus the Eastern Conference.
2. Home Cookin' - The Hornets are brutal on the road, with a record of 7-17. They have not been a great bet when playing good teams, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
3. X-Factor - Paul George has totaled 82 points over his last three games, and he should light up an inferior opponent tonight.
Power Sports
Baylor vs. Kansas St.
Pick: Baylor
Kansas State is coming off an upset of then #1 Oklahoma over the weekend, so an inevitable letdown is in play, plus there's the fact that Baylor will be looking to bounce back from a double digit loss at WVU. Last month in Waco, the Bears did beat the Wildcats by 7 points, not enough to cover but all we need here is a SU win.
Kansas State shot 52.9% on Saturday vs. Oklahoma and scored 80 points. That was their best offensive showing since a win over Oklahoma State back on January 23rd. Note that in the game that followed they were held to only 55 pts on 35.1% shooting in a double digit loss to West Virginia. The Wildcats are 0-2 ATS this season coming off a Big 12 win, having also lost here at home to Iowa State by a double digit margin.
Last month in Waco saw Baylor need double overtime to prevail over K State as they actually trailed by double digits in the first half. But let's take note that of this team's six losses this season, all have come against the Top 25, five vs. the Top 13 and four of those were on the road. Kansas State is simply not in that class. This is the first time all year that the Bears enter a game off consecutive losses. They will respond with a win.
Matt Fargo
South Carolina -3
First place in the SEC is up for grabs tonight as LSU heads to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. The Tigers are 8-2 in the conference and are a half-game ahead of Kentucky and a full game ahead of South Carolina so a win by the Gamecocks creates a three-way tie with Texas A&M having an opportunity to join that group with a win over Alabama tonight. The Gamecocks defeated the Aggies on the road Saturday which handed Texas A&M its first home loss of the season and now South Carolina will be out to protect its own home undefeated record where it is 13-0. LSU was projected to make a lot of noise this season but a 7-5 nonconference record had the Tigers needing a big SEC season which they have accomplished thus far. Their 8-2 record includes a 5-0 record at home and a 3-2 record on the road but of those three wins on the highway, a win over Vanderbilt is the only one considered even close to quality. This is the only regular season meeting between these teams so it can go a long way in deciding the conference and the home team has a solid edge here. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record.
Sleepyj
Bradley +8.5
I know Bradley isn't the greatest team in the world, but my numbers on this game ware way off...I have Bradley as a +3.5 point dog at home..Giving us +8.5 here is a play for me...That's 5 points off and that should be enough here IMO.
Vanderbilt / Missouri Under 139
I had this line at 135...I'll grab this one under the total tonight..4 points off and my handicap suggests this goes under the 135..Can;t pass up this kind of value when my numbers suggest this line is off by a full 4 points.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington vs. Utah
Play: Utah -9½
The Huskies re coming off two great performances beating Arizona State in overtime and then falling to Arizona after a fierce battle. Utah meanwhile was receiving their second straight loss at Oregon. Utah is 11-1 at home this season and 5-2 All-time against Washington in Salt Lake City. The Utes are looking forward to playing five of their final seven PAC-12 games at home. The Huskies have no one who can contain seven-footer Jakob Poeltl who had 29 points and 10 rebounds in the first meeting.
Marc Lawrence
Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +3½
Edges - Bulls: 9-3 ATS with revenge from a loss of 15 or more points in this series. Hawks: 3-6 ATS away versus foe with same season loss revenge this season. With the Bulls returning home off four previous home losses, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Jimmy Boyd
George Washington -2½
The fact that St Joseph's is 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS in their 11 road/neutral games this season, has the Colonials showing some tremendous value here as a small home favorite. George Washington has been equally impressive on their home floor, where they are 12-1 on the season.
The Colonials come into this game riding a huge wave of momentum. They have won 3 straight and the most recent being a 72-69 win at VCU as a 9-point dog. I don't see this being a letdown spot at all, as George Washington is a game back of the Hawks in the A-10 standings.
Something to keep in mind with the Hawks and their impressive 5-0 record on the road inside conference play. Those 5 wins have come against Richmond, George Mason, Lasalle, Rhode Island and Fordham. The only one of those with a winning record in league play is Rhode Island and they are just 1-game over .500 at 6-5.
Colonials are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a conference road win.