Alex Smart
Jazz at Pelicans
Play: Jazz +3
The Utah Jazz are currently playing some top tier tenacious basketball, and have won 7 straight games after ending a 10 game losing streak in Dallas last night, with a 121-119 OT win. Meanwhile, their hosts tonight New Orleans despite of winning vs lowly Minnesota last time out, have struggled quite consistently this season under new head coach Gentry , who just cant keep a consistent winning formula. It must also be noted that the Pelicans are 4-11 ATS L/15 after a SU win and 3-8 ATS in their L/11 games vs a side with a winning record on the season. The Jazz are 12-4 ATS in the second of back to back games and are 5-1 ATS last 6 games vs a team with a winning % of below .400. The Jazz are 4-0-1 ATS L/5 meetings in New Orleans and the underdog has only failed to cover 4 of the L/19 meetings in this series. The Jazz are 10-0 ATS L/10 covering by an average of 10.55 ppg after a win on the road when their DPS was at least plus 15 points, which was the case last night in Dallas.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +145 over DETROIT
OT included. The Red Wings are coming off back-to-back wins over Florida and the Islanders while outscoring that pair, 8-1. However, Detroit is just 5-5 over its past 10 games and had just 20 shots on net against the Islanders. Detroit is also without defensemen Niklas Kronwall and Mike Green and that leaves a very average group even more vulnerable. Over their last three games, the Red Wings have taken 14 minor penalties, which is tell-tale sign that they’re having difficulty moving the puck out of their own end. Wings netminder, Petr Mrazek is absolutely capable of stealing a game at anytime but so is Ottawa’s Craig Anderson. The difference is that Anderson and the Senators are not spotting the lumber here.
Assessing a trade the day after it happens is premature but it’s rather safe to say that the Maple Leafs pulled one over on the Senators. Toronto traded Dion Phaneuf to Ottawa without having to retain any of his salary, meaning Toronto will be free and clear of the burden of his deal. Lou Lamoriello also received something of value for Phaneuf, that being 20-year-old Swedish prospect Tobias Lindberg, along with a second-round draft pick in 2017. Ottawa also acquired depth players Matt Frattin, Cody Donaghey, Casey Bailey and Ryan Rupert in the trade, but none are expected to contribute at the NHL level.
For now, however, Phaneuf figures to help the Sens. He gets to play in the shadows of Erik Karlsson. No longer will he be logging the most minutes nor will he be asked to be the teams’ #1 defenseman. Phaneuf loses the “C” and can go back to playing his game or the game he played during his first few seasons in Calgary. Ottawa’s Achilles Heel all year has been the inability to move the puck out consistently. The Sens have spent far too much time in their own end but that could change in a hurry with the addition of Phaneuf and the greatly improved play of Cody Ceci. A healthy Marc Methot (just back from injury four games ago) also solidifies the back end.
Despite allowing the most amount of shots on net and the second most goals against in the entire league, Ottawa is just six points out of a playoff spot entering today. Furthermore, the Sens goal differential is higher than 10 other teams and they are within striking distance of four others because they score a bunch. It is obvious that up to this point Ottawa has been an offensive force with defensive breakdowns. Their goaltending is not a problem. The addition of Phaneuf along with Karlsson, Ceci and Methot instantly gives them a solid four behind the line. An improved Senators defense makes this team a very dangerous one. Ottawa has won two straight over Tampa and Toronto while outscoring that pair, 11-2. The Sens have allowed 22, 27 and 28 shots on net in three of their past five. This is a live puppy that got red-hot at this time last year but this time around they’re in much better shape. Ottawa has played some of their best hockey in this building, winning four off the past five here and another victory here is a distinct possibility.
Vancouver +111 over ARIZONA
OT included. The last time we saw the Coyotes back on Feb 5, they were 5-2 losers to the Ducks. Arizona has allowed five goals or more against in four straight games for a combined total of 21 goals against. What we have here is team off an extended rest trying to fix some defensive problems. Arizona has been bombarded with 41, 40, 37, 35 and 37 shots on net over its last five games respectively. There isn’t a defensive system in the world that can fix weak goaltending and right now both Coyotes goaltenders are fighting it. Anders Lindback is weak to begin with while then jury is still out on rookie Louis Domingue. What we know for sure is that Domingue’s confidence is much lower today than it was two weeks ago. Dude is struggling big time so it really does not matter which goalie Dave Tippett turns to. The ‘Yotes are labouring badly and are therefore a team to avoid right now.
In terms of value, any take-back against Arizona right now must be considered. Vancouver did play last night in Colorado but they have a winning record this year in the second game of back-to-backs and they also snapped a four-game losing streak. We mentioned yesterday that the Canucks were ready to pop and there is a good chance another victory follows last night’s win. Vancouver is just five points off the playoff pace in the Pacific Division, and until Anaheim and San Jose reeled off substantial recent winning streaks, the Canucks were even closer. This is team with 12 extra time losses and many more one-goal defeats. Despite losing four of its last five games, the Canucks are playing better now than they have been all year. Of those four recent losses, they didn’t really deserve to lose any of them, as they held a significant edge in shots on net in all four and had more scoring chances in all of them as well, which includes games against Nashville and the suddenly warm Penguins. Getting a weight off their shoulder with last night’s win, Vancouver is primed to have a decent stretch run providing they stay healthy. Of course the Canucks can win here.
Brian Hay
Nebraska vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -8
Nebraska has a overall record of 13-11 and a road record of 3-4. They are 12-7 against the spread. Nebraska averages 74.3 points per game this season. Their average scoring margin is 5.8 and their shooting percentage is 46% as a team. Wisconsin has an overall record of 14-9 and a home record of 10-5. They are 11-11 against the spread. Wisconsin averages 69.6 points per game this year. Their average scoring margin is 4.7 and their shooting percentage is 43% as a team. It took the Badgers time to gel as a unit but they have been playing their best basketball the last month. Nebraska will be without Shavon Shields tonight and that spells big trouble against Wisconsin. The Badgers are a much better team and will get a comfortable win tonight.
Nelly
Houston - over Memphis
Memphis enters this game coming off a huge home win over Cincinnati, snapping a slide that featured losses in four of the previous five games. Memphis has lost four of its five road games this season with only a win at Central Florida this season and on both sides of the ball the Tigers look like a rather mediocre team in the AAC despite being one of the higher profile programs in the conference. This Tigers team has really struggled on the offensive end with some of the conference's worst shooting numbers, a challenge with the Tigers playing at a very fast tempo and relying on a great volume of shots. Houston went 10-2 through a soft non-conference schedule and the Cougars appeared to be exposed losing four straight AAC games in January. The team has rallied however to win three of the last four with strong home wins over Tulsa and SMU before falling in a quick turnaround rematch at Tulsa on Sunday. This is the only meeting this season between these teams and there is a huge clash in the pace of play and the strengths of these squads. Houston has been one of the best offensive teams in the conference but the defense has been suspect at times albeit having already played seven games vs. the top five teams in the conference for perhaps the toughest path so far in AAC play. Even so the defensive numbers are pretty similar for these teams while Houston holds massive edges on the offensive end. Houston has lost twice at home this season but they also have home wins over LSU, Tulsa, and SMU, as the ceiling is high for a very effective shooting team that forces opponents into long tiring possessions. Three overtime wins boost the record for Houston but also proves an experienced team with a knack for closing out close games which this contest figures to be with the near-even spread. Robert Gray has missed the last two games and is a question mark but Houston won at home vs. SMU without him and depth is a strong point for the Cougars.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Minnesota
Pick: Toronto -6
Toronto has beaten Minnesota eight times in a row and 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Raptors are on a three-game winning streak with all the games being on the road, including a 103-89 win at Detroit on Monday. Kyle Lowry scored 25 points as his team shot 55.7 percent from the field and held the Pistons to just 8-of-28 from three-point range. The Raptors have won 14 of their last 15 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota has lost six of its last eight contests, including 116-102 to New Orleans on Monday when the Timberwolves came up short even though Karl Anthony-Towns led seven players in double figures with 19 points. Minnesota is allowing 103.9 points per game and 46.5 percent from the floor. Toronto is also 9-1 ATS its last 10 games in Minnesota and 21-6 ATS the last 27 meetings overall. The Wolves are 1-5 ATS after a 10-plus home loss. Lay the points and play the Raptors.
Don Anthony
Washington vs. Utah
Play: Utah -10.5
This line has moved 2.5 points already from it's opener of -8. Huge money is on the home team here as nearly 2 out of every 3 bets are being placed on the Huskies. Few of the sources have I have spoken to love the Utes tonight. Going to follow the money here as Utah is a fantastic home team with a 35-15-2 spread record in Salt Lake and have one of the best home field advantages. Washington is just 2-7 ATS their last 9 games against the Utes. For what it's worth, I also have a small lean on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home to upset the Iowa State Cyclones.
Dave Price
Providence -1.5
I fully expect a big effort from the Providence Friars tonight, and it will be enough to cover this slim 1.5-point spread at Marquette. The Friars will be motivated from back-to-back losses coming into this game with a 70-77 loss at DePaul and a 60-72 home defeat at the hands of Villanova. But this is still one of the best teams in the Big East at 18-6, and this has been their first 2-game losing streak of the season. They aren't about to drop 3 in a row. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that Providence lost 64-65 at home to Marquette in their first meeting of the season on January 5th. So, the Friars will be motivated for revenge in the rematch, too. The Friars have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS away from home. Marquette is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog. The Golden Eagles are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. The Friars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Hornets +3.5
The Hornets come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a big win on the road against the Pacers tonight. Indiana has won 5 of 7, but 4 of those wins have come against teams that are struggling in the Nuggets, Nets, Pistons and Lakers. Oddsmakers opened this line at 4.5 and despite the public being all over the Pacers, we have seen the line drop to 3.5, which is a good sign the sharp money is on the Hornets. Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Pacers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won less than 40% of their road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win.
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -3.5
I believe we are getting the Indiana Pacers at a discount tonight at home against the Charlotte Hornets as only 3.5-point favorites. We'll take advantage and back the Pacers in a game they should win going away.
For starters, the Pacers are 17-8 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game. Meanwhile, the Hornets are just 7-17 on the road, getting outscoring by 4.5 points per game. The Pacers are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to Cleveland (by 5) and at Atlanta (by 6).
Indiana is a perfect 12-0 in its last 12 home meetings with Charlotte. The Hornets are 10-39 all-time in Indianapolis. The Pacers have held the Hornets to an average of 87.4 points during this 12-game home winning streak, which includes a 93-74 victory in their most recent meeting in Indianapolis.
The Pacers are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Hornets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Golden St vs Phoenix
Play: Golden St -16
This is the Warriors last chance for a big statement before the All Star break and so I look for them to close out the first "half" of the season by putting an exclamation point on their dominance of the rest of the league thus far. Golden State won big again last night but just barely failed to cover. I expect the Suns to struggled to keep up tonight in what should be a high-scoring affair that is allowed to play out in wide-open style which is a big edge for the Warriors. The Suns are off of a non-covering loss against the Thunder. Phoenix failed to get the cash against Oklahoma City even though they had their best shooting night since January 2nd! That says a lot about how low the Suns have sunk this season and their shooting and overall "game" just can't keep up with the powerful Warriors. Golden State has shot lights out in recent meetings with Phoenix and there is no reason to expect that to change here. The Suns are on a putrid 12-29 ATS run and will be no match for a Warriors team that will "keep their foot on the gas" with the All Star break coming up. Even though this is a back to back spot, Golden State is 9-2 ATS in the 2nd game of back to backs this season. Also, the Warriors are 15-5 ATS on the road this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more.
Jesse Schule
Utah vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
I took a bit of a bad beat least night when the Jazz tied the game with a buzzer beater and went on to win in overtime in Dallas. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Utah Jazz come into Dallas riding a six game win streak, but five of those six wins came at home. The exception was a 98-89 win at Phoenix on Saturday. The Jazz are dominant on defense, ranking second in the NBA allowing just 95.9 points per game. They aren’t nearly as successful on the road though, where they have an 8-15 record. Even Saturday’s win over the Suns saw a total of 187 points, enough to go over the number here tonight. The Jazz are a woeful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they’ve allowed 99.7 points per game in their last seven on the road." The Pelicans on the other hand have played quite well at home lately, and this is a huge let down spot for the Jazz on back to back nights coming off an overtime win over the Mavs
Drew Martin
Washington at Utah
Play: Under 158.5
In a rematch of one of the most exciting games in the PAC-12 this year, the Washington Huskies travel to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes. In that game, Utah prevailed in overtime, 80-75. Since then the Huskies split with UCLA and USC and then both Arizona schools. Three of those four games went over the total and averaged over 80 possessions. Utah meanwhile swept both Bay Area schools but limp into this one after losing both games to the Oregon schools on the road. Washington has been playing ultra-fast all season but tonight is a unique environment as they face a slower paced team on the road at elevation. It’ll be a challenge for UW’s freshmen-heavy roster. And note that the first meeting was moderately paced by Washington standards. The two teams were tied 66-66 at the end of regulation and even with overtime, the entire game had only 77 possessions. Despite that, tonight’s total is the exact same at 158 even though it reasonable to think a team like Washington won’t have as easy a time controlling pace or scoring on the highway. And when push comes to shove, Utah is still a half court, defense-first squad under Larry Krystowiak. Even playing in the up-tempo PAC-12, the Utes’ league games still average only 65 possessions. Important game for both sides as venue and matchup indicate a play should be made on the under.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Hawks of St. Joe's over George Washington.
Huge A-10 battle from D.C. here on Wednesday as St. Joseph's seeks their 20th win of the season against only 4 losses, while George Washington stands at 18-5 after their weekend win over VCU, the Colonials 3rd win in a row in Atlantic 10 action.
After 3 straight series wins and covers by the Hawks, it is the Colonials that have won the last pair of meetings, splitting against the spread. So, a little "double-revenge" is on the minds of Phil Marteli's team, and with a 10-1 road spread mark for the season, it is clear that these Hawks know how to fly away from their home nest in Philadelphia.
The pointspread suggests this one will be close, and I feel the same way, only I feel that the small points they are offering may not be needed, as I see St. Joe's cooling off G-Dub on their home floor here on Wednesday.
Take the Hawks.
3* ST. JOSEPH'S
Scott Delaney
The whole "finish undefeated" pressure ended weeks ago, and SMU has been able to stay focused on the task at hand. Tonight my free play is on the 16th-ranked Mustangs, as they will undoubtedly build on their best American Athletic Conference victory, and will stay undefeated at home tonight against Tulsa.
Since losing two of three and shooting 40.4 percent in the previous two, shot 60.3 percent - second-highest this season - in Sunday's 92-58 road rout of South Florida.
The league-leading Mustangs should have no trouble winning consecutive games for the first time since opening the campaign 18-0. It'll be coach Larry Brown's high-powered offense that will keep things going, as SMU has hit more than half its attempts while averaging 79.1 points during a 15-game home winning streak - a run that includes last season's 67-62 victory over Tulsa, which lost its fourth straight in the series by allowing SMU to shoot 56.4 percent and go 10 of 15 from 3-point range in an 81-69 home loss Dec. 29. Tulsa has also lost 16 in a row on the road, when facing Top 25 teams.
Take SMU tonight.
5* SMU
Brad Wilton
My Wednesday comp play is the Magic as the home dog against the Spurs.
The Spurs were able to fight back last night in Miami for their 5th straight win, and they did eek-out the cover as the -6 1/2 point favorite as well.
With this being the Spurs last game before the All-Star break, I have a feeling Coach Pop may give some of the troops a little rest tonight against the Magic.
Orlando just swept a home-and-home off of Atlanta, and more importantly, the Magic is on a 5-1 spread run their last 6 games overall.
San Antonio is on a 9-game series win streak, but Orlando has covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings versus the Spurs, including the first this season in San Antone.
Grab the points and look for Orlando to keep it close.
1* ORLANDO