Steve Merril
Connecticut vs. Syracuse
Play: Connecticut +10.5
Connecticut has not had a good season; the Huskies are just 14-9 on the year. They’ve lost three of their last four games and six of their last nine. And a major reason for their mid-season collapse came a few weeks ago. Head coach Jim Calhoun has missed the last six games; he had to take a leave of absence because he’s dealing with some medical issues. His absence has been quite noticeable as the Huskies have not been able to overcome their leader not being on the bench. The Huskies lost a couple of close back-to-back games and their bubble burst when they had to travel on just one day of rest and play at a desperate Louisville team. UConn lost that game by 13 points, but that wasn’t really much of a surprise considering how fragile they were going into that ballgame. But they bounced back in their last game, an unimpressive 64-57 win over hapless DePaul. However, a win is a win right now for the Huskies no matter how big the margin and no matter who the opponent. They just needed a win, and that win may get this team on a little roll to close out the season. Syracuse has been a pleasant surprise this season. They are currently 23-1 on the year and on a 10-game winning streak. Their first and only loss came in their second conference game; an 82-72 home loss to Pittsburgh. But the Orange may be in a dogfight in this game because they are facing a strong defensive team in UConn. The Huskies allow just 67 points per game on 38.3% shooting which is a major step-up for a Syracuse offense that has faced the weakest defensive teams in the conference in recent games. When facing the other two strong defensive teams in the Big East, Syracuse lost to Pittsburgh and only beat West Virginia by a single point. There are a couple of reasons why Connecticut is not a Best Bet tonight. It’s kind of hard to play-against Syracuse right now even though they are taking on a strong defensive team for the first time in awhile. The Orange are 15-5 ATS this season, and with UConn losing two of their last three road games by 15 and 13 points, we just don’t trust them enough at this point to make a stronger play on them.
LT Profits
Nevada @ Idaho
The Nevada Wolf Pack and Idaho Vandals snuck Under the total when they met in Reno last month, and we look for a repeat performance in this rematch at Idaho.
This game is a contrast in styles, as Nevada road games are averaging 151.4 points this season while Idaho home games are only averaging 132.8, and whoever wins the Tempo War here will have a leg up on this contest. These teams combined for 144 points last month, which is already less than this posted total, and we look for even fewer points per be scored here.
This is because the Vandals do an excellent job of controlling the pace at home, as their combined home average already suggests, and that is the main reason why the Under is 6-1 in all Idaho home games that have had a posted total. In fact, the lone Over saw exactly 148 points scored while the six Under were all significantly less, meaning that not a single lined Idaho home game has gone Over this posted total yet this year.
Even Nevada has now gone Under in two straight games, and Utah State was able to successfully slow the Pack offense down on their last road game, where Nevada scored only 65 points. Granted, the Wolf Pack rank 26 in the country in offensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, but that is offset here by the fact that they like to run, and nobody has had success running the court in Idaho this season vs. a very deliberate Vandals team.
We think these teams will be hard-pressed to reach the 144 points they scored in the January 16 meeting tonight, so look for a safe Under this evening.
Pick: Nevada/Idaho Under 148
Matt Fargo
Old Dominion at James Madison
Prediction: James Madison
The first thought for this game by many is to take Old Dominion as it is coming off a loss on Saturday and will be ready to get some back against a weak opponent. The monarchs are no doubt the better team here but I do not like this situation for them at all, coming off a loss or not. They are playing their second straight game on the road and they are not a great team away from home. Old Dominion had its eight-game winning streak snapped three games back at Northeastern as it fell by 10 points to the Huskies. The Monarchs did bounce back at home against William & Mary last Wednesday as it won by 19 points in a game was closer than the final score indicates. Playing on the road has been a roller coaster this season for Old Dominion who comes in with a 6-5 record in road games. Included in that record was a huge win at Georgetown and that is looking more and more of simply a bad game for the Hoyas than a good game for the Monarchs. The other five road victories came against William & Mary, who is having a solid season, but the other four came against teams ranked 278th, 264th, 186th and 230th. It will be argued that James Madison can be lumped into that category and at 10-14 overall and 3-10 in the conference, there may not be many rebuttals. However, I will rebut that. The Dukes have had some brutal losses this season as of their 10 conference losses, half of those have come by five points or less including four games that were decided by just one possession. Making that even stronger is the fact that those four games all came on the road. One of those losses came by only two points at Old Dominion so James Madison certainly is capable of putting solid games together. This is easily the most points it has gotten on its home floor this season and we will take advantage of this overaggressive line. This is a pretty big rivalry and despite the James Madison campus being closed today due to the bad weather, the game will go on and that will only make the student section even more energetic. The Monarchs have a game against George Mason, who is just a half-game behind them, up next on Saturday so this can be considered a rather big sandwich game as well. James Madison also falls into a solid situation. Play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite and now playing their second game in three days. This situation is 83-35 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1997 with the simple logic that a team that was favored just two games back is getting excellent value now by receiving double-digits. 3* James Madison Dukes
Tom Freese
Southern Miss at Tulsa
Play: Southern Miss
Tulsa is 18-5 overall and 7-2 in Conference Play. Guard Ben Uzoh scores 15.4 points a game while getting 4.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists a game. Center Jerome Jordan scores 15 points a game and grabs 8.2 rebounds a game. Guard Justin Hurtt scores 14 points a game while shooting just under 42% from behind the arc. Three other players score between 7.9 and 5.3 points a game. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS their last 5 Conference games and they are 0-4 ATS off an ATS loss. Tulsa is 1-5 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%.
Southern Mississippi is 14-8 overall and they 4-4 in league play. The score 66 points a game and they allow 60 points a game. They are led in scoring with forward Gary Flowers and his 14.5 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. Guard Maurice Bolden scores 10 points a game while dishing out 6.1 assists a game. Four other players score between 9.5 and 6.6 points a game. The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 8-3 ATS off a straight up win. Southern Mississippi 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games and they are 9-2 ATS their last road games vs. a team with a winning home record. PLAY ON SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI +
JR O'Donnell
Old Dominion vs. James Madison
Play: James Madison +498
We find a James Madison U squad with a rare dog spot @ home!!! They are 7-3 straight up but on the ats side they 1-6-1 @ home, They are a 10pt home dog AND IN OUR CAMPS OPINION a very UNDER RATED dangerous home team. Jmu has not relished the big favorite role as in over half of their home games they have been favored by 7 or more . ODU Monarchs and their 6-5su away from home record and their horrible 4-8ats away from home record coming into James Madison laying a 10 spot ? No way we see this Jmu team that bad tonight. The Monarchs are fading fast on the offensive side of the ball the last 5. scoring only in the 50's and low 60's their last 4 & only averaging 59.4ppg in their last 5 outings. JR O with a Strong play on the Dukes at home tonight .. A couple of key bombs here = JMU 67% Ft percentage at home vs a ODU squad shooting 61% from the stripe away. JMU keeps it close & WINS OUTRIGHT
Craig Trapp
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7
Two teams headed in opposite directions as the Hawks have proven to be a top team in the East and Miami has proven they need a ton of help. The Hawks and Heat have split this year both winning by double digits on their home floor. Since the defeat by the Heat in early January the Heat have only gone 8-12 straight up. Wade has been good but looks worn down and to add to that its a back to back with road travel. Spells trouble for an overmatched Heat team. Hawks cover the double digit spread and add to their stellar 18-8 ATS home record. Joe Johnson and company will be resting late as the Hawks cruise here to an easy ATS winner.
Sam Martin
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Handicapping NBA games prior to the All-Star break is a little bit different than normal, as we have a huge motivational factor for some teams just waiting for their week vacation, especially on the road. Miami was on the right end of that situation last night against Houston, as they held the Rockets to just 66 points in their 33-point win. Tonight, Miami will be on the wrong end of that spot in Atlanta.
The Hawks have won three straight and have a chance to be sitting in second place in the East with a win tonight (depending on how Orlando does tonight and tomorrow). Miami had lost five in a row prior to yesterday, and Dwyane Wade has to be worn out from carrying his team on his back since Day One. We'll lay the points with a motivated Hawks team here tonight. Play on Atlanta.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Heat/Hawks UNDER 191.5
First off, plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, if that team is coming off a home win by 10 points or more, are 30-10 the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42 or more games, after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better, are 28-9 since 1996. In addition, this figures to be a letdown spot for the Heat as they are 7-0 Under after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season and we are only seeing 183.6 total points scored in these spots. Atlanta is also 26-8 Under when revenging a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing a total of 185.3 points scored in these spots. We'll play by the numbers for 1 unit here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +1.60 over COLORADO
Since the trade of Kovalchuk to the Devils the Thrashers stock has crashed and they’ve been undervalued since. They’ve split its two games since the trade, losing in Washington and then winning in Florida. Against Washington they lost 5-2 but that is a misleading score, as they played a strong game, outshot the Caps 45-32 and ran into a hot goaltender. They were solid in that game and they were solid in the next one too. They actually did real well in that deal, picking up two very decent NHL players, a great prospect and a draft pick and the team looks no worse and probably better. The Thrashers look good folks and win, lose or draw here, they offer up some tremendous value in this one. The Av’s have won two straight but they beat the Oilers and Blues. Prior to that they had lost four of five and while they remain determined they also remain beatable and in no way should they be this big a favorite over the Thrashers. Definite overlay. Play: Atlanta +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
Washington -1½ +1.66 over MONTREAL
The fact that the Canadiens are still in the playoff hunt is a bigger mystery than Justin Bieber’s popularity. The Habs have been living off their goaltending, shootouts and the power-play and that’s how they’ve won games this season. However, with Cammalleri and Bergeron on the rack that power-play has suffered and will likely continue to do so. The Habs only shot here is once again a goaltender standing on his head and even that might not help. Aside from the reeling Oilers, this is the biggest mismatch the NHL has to offer and that’s all there is to it. The Canadiens continue to get badly outplayed on a nightly basis, usually giving up about a 3-1 ratio in scoring chances and somehow hanging in there. If this team makes the playoffs, which is highly unlikely, Jaroslav Halak should be the league’s MVP because without him, Montreal might have less wins than the Oilers. Against the Capitals, not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Play: Washington –1½ +1.66 (Risking 2 units).
PITTSBURGH –1½ +1.12 over NY Islanders
Can’t imagine the Penguins being flat tonight after a no show in Montreal on Saturday and after blowing a 4-1 lead in Washington on Sunday. The Pens will have had almost three full days to digest that and with three home games remaining until the break it’s safe to say that they want these last three games and this invader will likely give them the least trouble. The Islanders played their hearts out last night and won in OT against the Predators. They’ll get right back at it tonight and it looks like it’ll be Rick DiPietro in net after the team showcased Marty Biron last night. The Penguins are about as healthy as they’ve been all year and it’s also worth noting that Chris Kunitz has been back for two games now. They have everyone back and should take care of this intruder in rather easy fashion. The Islanders have not been the same since DiPietro showed up, as they have lost seven of its last eight. Play: Pittsburgh –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
Buffalo -6.5 vs E. Mich
EMU head coach Ramsey is in his fifth season and at 12-11, has a chance for his first winning season since coming to Ypsilanti (career mark at the school is a rather sad 54-92, .370). PG Medlock was lost for the entire season last year to a broken foot but has returned to play well in his final season this year (15.7-3.1-3.5), joining two solid frontcourt players in the 6-6 Bowdry (16.0-10.0) and the 6-8 Dobbins (12.1-5.4). Depth is a concern for the Eagles and that could be a problem here vs Buffalo. The Bulls made it all the way to the MAC title game last seasons (lost to Akron) and the team's 21 wins were the second-most in school history. Nine players see 13 MPG of action or more, led by three, 30 minute-plus seniors., guards Pierce (18.7-3.7-3.3) and Boyer (7.3-4.5-5.3) plus 6-3 swingman Betts (11.2-7.2). Buffalo made it to the CBI last year (lost first game) but will be lucky to be playing in the postseason again this year. However, the 12-9 Bulls are the better team in this matchup and should have little trouble with the Eagles, who are 3-7 SU and ATS in true road games this season. Lay the reasonable number with Buffalo.
Spartan
PHI +6 vs TOR
Something has to give as the suddenly feisty Philadelphia 76ers come to Toronto to meet the resurgent Raptors. I had a nice winner with the Sixers in the road dog role this past weekend in Houston and I am ready to jump right back on tonight. The Raptors have now prevailed in 13 of the last 14 at home and actually we were on them as well last time out against the Kings. The Sixers have now won an impressive 8 of 11 away from home. Who would have thought a month ago that this game would be as compelling as it is. I like the fact that the Sixers are 8-1 against the number on the road playing back to back. I predict a competitive and entertaining game from tip to finish and although the Raptors might well prevail again at home, I see Philly keeping this thing within the number guys. Take the 76ers plus the generous six points.
Scott Delaney
Duke at North Carolina
I'm going to take my chances here and lay the chalk with the road team laying a value price.
North Carolina is experiencing an extremely down season, and has had some terrible losses. This could be the icing on the cake, while Duke could very well be in position to make a statement by going into Chapel Hill and dominating an outmatched Tar Heels team.
I am sure this North Carolina team is far more talented than it has played, but I don't believe it has the wherewithal to hang with a Blue Devils team that is looking to seize control of this rivalry and stay atop the ACC standings.
All Blue Devils tonight.
1♦ DUKE
Tony Weston
How easy did the Hawks make that look last night? I delivered another Comp Play winner and I’m doing it again today as I’m taking Florida on the road at South Carolina.
No, the Gators aren’t the best team in the country like they were earlier last decade. But, Florida is still pretty good and has been taking advantage of some favorable lines.
The Gators come into this one installed as about a 1 1/2 point underdog and will cash in and flirt with the outright victory.
Florida has gone 6-1 SU and ATS its last 7 games and has covered in 4 straight games.
Now the Gators battle a South Carolina team that’s won just 2 of its last 6 games SU and has covered in just 2 of its last 7 games. Also, despite the Gamecocks being 5-4 ATS at home this season, Carolina has covered in just 1 of its last 5 home games.
Also, in this series, despite South Carolina going 5-2-1 ATS their last 8 meetings, Florida has gone 7-1 SU in that stretch. Also, in this series the road team has gone 10-1-1 ATS the last 12 meetings between these two.
Tonight, take whatever points you can get and take Florida on the road.
3♦ FLORIDA
Karl Garrett
Miami +7' at ATLANTA
Tuesday night comp play winner on George Mason to make it 3 straight comp play winners.
For Wednesday, G-Man is going to grab the points with Miami as they visit Atlanta with both teams wrapping it up before the All-Star break.
Miami finally woke up in a much-needed home blowout of Houston on Tuesday, while Atlanta was doing battle in Memphis on Tuesday night.
I can't give you many negative numbers against the Hawks to bolster my Miami selection, but I can tell you that it appears the Wade-Spoelstra summit meeting has given the Heat a bit of a spark, and this is a Miami team that did lose to the Hawks in last year's playoffs, so you can assume a supreme effort is in store before heading to the long weekend break.
Going to grab Miami plus the points in this one.
1♦ MIAMI HEAT
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Lakers at UTAH
I failed to come through for the second straight day, taking Oklahoma to cover at home Tuesday against Texas Tech. But despite the setback, I'm still on a 70-48-4 run, and I will rebound with an easy winner today!
I thought about making Utah my top play of today, and love the Jazz in this spot here. Utah has won nine straight games and is 22-6 at home this season.
The Jazz also have won 13 of their last 14 games overall, and they are averaging 110.6 ppg while shooting 52.6 percent during that stretch.
The home team is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings between these teams, and the Lakers might be without both Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum tonight because of injuries. Bynum missed Los Angeles' last game with a bruised right hip, and Bryant has a sore ankle, though it wouldn't surprise me if he played.
Even if he does, however, Utah is just playing too well, and it will take advantage of Bynum's absence in the paint.
The Jazz are on ATS runs of 17-6-3 overall and 15-4-2 at home, and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the teams' last 10 meetings. Take Utah to roll over the Lakers in Salt Lake City tonight.
4♦ UTAH