Karl Garrett
Northwestern -3 at IOWA
Tuesday comp winner on George Mason to make it 3 straight comp play winners.
For Wednesday, I have to believe that if the Wildcats of Northwestern want to be seriously considered for a spot in the Big Dance this year, they had better win road games against the likes of the 8-16 Iowa Hawkeyes who come into this one saddled with losses in their last 4 games.
The points haven't been much of a help for the Hawkeyes on their home floor, as Iowa is just 4-10 against the spread their last 14 at Carver Hawkeye Arena.
Northwestern brings a 7-1 spread mark on the road into this one, and they did snap a 4 game series losing streak with the win and cover over Iowa last February at home.
Like I said, at 16-7 the Wildcats merit some consideration for the field of 65 in March, but only if they win games like this one.
Tonight they do.
Take Northwestern minus the points.
3♦ NORTHWESTERN
Stephen Nover
Charlotte +9' at DAYTON
Getting excellent scoring from newcomers Shamari Spears, Derrio Green and Chris Braswell, Charlotte has surprised this season. The 49ers are leading the Atlantic 10 after being picked for seventh in the preseason poll.
But Charlotte hasn't earned enough respect from the oddsmaker in this matchup.
Maybe it's because Dayton buried an overrated Xavier squad by 25 in its last game, but this line is inflated too high. The Flyers were sky-high for that matchup against Xavier after Rhode Island ended their 30-game home win streak in their previous home game.
Charlotte is playing too well to lose this game by double-digits. The 49ers have won seven in a row. They also have covered in six of their last seven games versus Dayton.
1♦ UNC CHARLOTTE
Duke at NORTH CAROLINA +6
This is North Carolina's Super Bowl. The Tar Heels need to beat their arch-rivals to boost their confidence, gain some pride for a terribly disappointing season and keep alive their NCAA tournament chances.
This has long been an underdog series, which makes sense in this most intense of college basketball rivalries. The underdog has covered in 14 of the past 17 meetings.
Duke has yet to prove itself on the road. The Blue Devils are 2-4 away from home with a 1-5 spread mark. Already the Blue Devils have lost three ACC away games.
Duke is averaging 68.8 points on the road, nearly 13 points below its season average. Opponents are shooting nearly 49 percent from the field at home when playing Duke.
North Carolina's guards have struggled with turnovers. But the Tar Heels can control the paint and they will be as sky high for a game as they have been all season.
1♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Chris Jordan
Charlotte -2' at MINNESOTA
The Bobcats won three road games before losing the final two in a recent Western Conference tour, and they'd like nothing more than to head into the All-Star Break on a winning note.
Sitting at 25-25 on the year, it's also motivation for the Bobcats to finish above .500.
I don't see that being too much to ask for against a sub-.500 Timberwolves team that is a dismal 13-39 on the year and continues to struggle with mistakes.
Minnesota is 2-13 when it gives the ball away 19 times or more, and its 16.2 turnovers per game are the most in the NBA.
Looking inside the betting numbers, the Bobcats have covered six straight on Wednesdays and when laying a number in this range, while they've cashed in four of their last five on the road. Conversely, the T'Wolves are on ATS slides of 10-26 against Southeast Division foes, 1-4 versus the East and 1-4 when playing on the second of back-to-back nights.
1♦ BOBCATS
Wyoming at SAN DIEGO STATE -17'
The Cowboys had no business beating San Diego State back on Jan. 9.
Tonight the Aztecs get revenge.
Veteran leader Billy White was sidelined with a bum ankle for that game, but will be on the court helping his teammates exact revenge tonight.
And believe me, it wasn't necessarily the absence of White - this is a good basketball team. In fact, the Aztecs coughed up a 14-point lead with less than five minutes remaining in Laramie, Wyo., and should have won that game anyway.
Tonight, with their team leader back in uniform, there should be nothing stopping the Aztecs from pummeling a Wyoming team that is 0-7 on the road this season.
And make note, the Cowboys have lost their best player - Afam Muojeke - while their second-leading scorer - Adam Waddell - is playing with a sore knee and bad ankle.
Wyoming wasn't that successful on the road and fully healthy, what makes you think this team will be anything worthwhile on the highway and all dinged up?
2♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Drew Gordon
Charlotte at MINNESOTA +2
54-38-3 roll L/95 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Bobcats/Timberwolves match up.
Its interesting how quickly bettors have jumped off the 'Wolves bandwagon after their nice 4-game winning streak SUATS. Of course, they lost at the 76ers last night (in a rout), and now everyone swears Minny is going to get pasted once again tonight. Sorry Bobcats-backers, but I'm much more inclined to believe the 'Wolves regroup and bounce back strong tonight, and here's why:
First of all, you want to trust the Bobcats on the road? The same team that's 6-19 SU away! Yes, I know they're 15-10 ATS away also, but a lot of those wins came as heavy dogs. Now, all of a sudden, because Minnesota loses at the 76ers, there's "value" laying points with Charlotte in this spot? I think not, at least not in this situation!
Second, if there's one thing we saw from Minnesota during their win streak that gives them a tremendous advantage here is their improved offensive play. The Timberwolves averaged 112 ppg during their run, and while Charlotte's defense is solid, they're FAR more vulnerable on the road, allowing 97 ppg on 47% shooting. My point is the 'Wolves offense can and will get back in order in their return home, especially with the temendous balance they've shown from top-to-bottom of late.
Bottom line, there's no denying the 'Wolves have been pathetic this season, but that doesn't mean this young team can't or won't hit their stride from time to time. Right now, the 'Wolves are balling, and I expect we'll see their "A" game reappear tonight. Charlotte is below average on the road, and Minny can take full advantage of that tonight.
Take Minnesota plus the points over Charlotte in this NBA match up.
3♦ MINNESOTA
New Mexico +5' at UNLV
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Lobos/Runnin' Rebels match up.
I can understand why the public is liking the Runnin' Rebels tonight, namely because of their last meeting - a 74-62 UNLV win in Albuquerque January 9th. That game was thoroughly dominated by UNLV, forcing New Mexico into just 36% shooting on their own home floor, while getting big contributions from their backcourt (Willis had 20 points, Stanback 14, and Wallace 21). Based on that, you'd expect the game to be even more lopsided in Nevada, but no so fast!
A couple things need to be considered, especially since the Lobos have reeled off 7 straight wins since that loss to UNLV... Obviously, the loss had a positive effect on New Mexico, as they put more emphasis on defense and taking care of the basketball, and it paid off (for them and their backers, 5-2 ATS over 7-game winning streak). Long story short, the Lobos are not only playing much more focused basketball right now, but they've been chomping at the bit (for a month) to get some payback against this Rebels squad.
Finally, how do they do it? Well, fact is while UNLV has been a good bet this season, they've been far more profitable on the road. This suggests they're overpriced at home, and I expect that's true once again here tonight. Runnin' Rebels are a very good team, but this is a much different situational spot. The last time they face the Lobos, they were coming off a loss and needed the win. This time around, they're no longer the "hunter," they're the "hunted," as New Mexico seeks revenge, rewarding their backers along the way.
Take New Mexico plus the points over UNLV in this college hoops match up.
2♦ NEW MEXICO
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando -4 at CHICAGO
Tonight I'll continue my amazing 47-17-1 FREE pick run with an NBA winner on the Magic as they travel to Chicago to take on the Bulls.
The Magic have been red-hot lately and now they get to face a Bulls team playing its second game of a back-to-back. Orlando has won six of its last seven games overall while Chicago has dropped three of its last five.
Orlando just beat the Celtics and Hornets in back-to-back games Sunday and Monday, including the impressive road win in Boston on Sunday, winning 96-89 as a three-point road ‘dog. They’ve won three of four on the road, covering in all three wins. Over the Magic’s last five games, they held the opposition to 93.2 points a game and 42.5 percent shooting.
In the only matchup this season, Chicago scored a 101-93 home win, but that was in the middle of a slump for the Magic. They’ve since righted the ship and have it rolling right now. They are on ATS runs of 3-1-1 on the road, 4-1 in Eastern Conference games and 4-1 in games after a day off.
Chicago is on ATS slides of 4-9 on the second night of a back-to-back and 9-22 against Southeast Division teams.
The Magic got 48 points from Vince Carter in their win over the Hornets on Monday and if this guy wakes up and finds his All-Star form this team is going to be very dangerous in the second half of the season. Lay the chalk with Orlando tonight in Chicago.
5♦ ORLANDO
New Mexico at UNLV (-5)
I'm 47-17-1 with my last 65 FREE selections and tonight I've got a comp winner on UNLV as the Rebels host New Mexico.
The two hottest teams in the Mountain West Conference square off tonight in Vegas as UNLV welcomes New Mexico.
The Rebels have won five straight, including a Saturday home win over BYU, winning 88-74 as a two-point favorite. New Mexico has won seven straight and edged San Diego State on Saturday 88-86 in OT, falling short as a seven-point home favorite.
But in this series, UNLV has dominated, winning seven of the last 10 and cashing in the last two. The Rebels have won five straight as the home team, including last year’s 60-58 home win. A month ago, UNLV went to New Mexico and slapped the Lobos 74-62 as a five-point road ‘dog.
The Rebels are a deep roster that can throw waves of talent at New Mexico. They get after it defensively and will be able to stop New Mexico and pull this one out with a big second half. UNLV is on ATS runs of 7-0 on Wednesdays, 4-1 in MWC action, 7-3 after a straight-up win and 8-1 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
They had a huge win with a big crowd on Saturday and expect the same tonight when the Rebels pull away late and beat the Lobos by 10. Play UNLV.
3♦ UNLV
Michael Cannon
Orlando at CHICAGO +4'
Take the Bulls as the home dog over the Magic.
Bad situational spot for Orlando. This marks the Magic’s third game in four days and they play at Cleveland tomorrow night on national TV.
The Bulls really started playing well about a month ago and I expect them to stay within this number tonight.
Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Orlando is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against the NBA Central.
Take the points with the Bulls as they stay within the number.
4♦ CHICAGO
Georgia Tech at MIAMI-FLA -1
I am now 75-64-3 with my last 142 free plays.
Take Miami (Fla) as the small home chalk over Georgia Tech.
The Hurricanes are struggling. There’s no question about that. They have lost six of their last seven overall, but five of those losses were on the road.
I like Miami to get back on track in the familiar confines of the BankUnited Center.
Georgia Tech beat Miami last year as a three-point home dog, which ended a 4-0 SUATS run by the Hurricanes.
Look for Miami to get back on track at home as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ MIAMI
Brett Atkins
Scored the free winner on Tuesday with Georgetown as the Hoyas went to Providence and got the win and cover. Tonight I'm back on the college hardwood with a winner on North Carolina as I grab the points with the Tar Heels against Duke.
North Carolina has been terrible lately, losing six of seven overall, but I am going to grab the points with them against their fierce rivals. In this series, it doesn't matter how good or bad you've been, it's going to be a fight to the buzzer.
Carolina is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with Duke and the underdog has cashed in 13 of 17 games in this rivalry.
Duke has won four of five overall, but they’ve failed to cash in two of the last three, including Saturday at Boston College, edging the Eagles 66-63 as an eight-point favorite.
North Carolina is getting healthy and starting to get its players back in the lineup. They are 30-10-1 ATS after a straight-up loss and the Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five roadies. And there is no place tougher for Duke than the Dean Smith Center.
Grab the points and play North Carolina against the rivals from Duke.
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Jay McNeil
Can I keep this up? You better believe it!
I improved to 11-2 with my free plays over the last 13 days as Georgetown buckled down late and got the job done Tuesday against Providence. And I've got another college winner for you today with Texas Christian against slumping Utah.
The Horned Frogs lost by 20 points at Utah on Jan. 9, but they play much better at home and the Utes are just 2-5 on the road this season and have lost three straight games overall.
TCU, which is 8-5 in Fort Worth, has guards in Ronnie Moss, Edvinas Ruzgas and Greg Hill that can shoot the ball and should be able to handle the Utes' backcourt of Carlon Brown, Marshall Henderson and Luka Drca.
Horned Frogs forward Zvonko Buljan was 2-for-11 in the first meeting between the teams this year, and he's a much better player than that. Look for him to have a strong game after having some recent struggles.
The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams. I think both of teams are pretty evenly matched, but I'm giving the nod to TCU here playing at home.
2♦ TCU
Charley Sutton
Man, Kentucky should have destroyed Alabama, but instead only wins by 11 and fails to cover in a game the Wildcats should have won by 20.
I’m not making a mistake like that tonight as I’m delivering you a winner with Baylor on the road at Nebraska in some Big XII action.
Despite being 13-10 SU this season Nebraska has covered in just 5 of its 15 lined games this season and has covered in just 2 of its last 9 lined games.
Over the Cornhuskers’ last 8 games the team has gone just 1-7 SU, including a 1-3 SU mark at home, where they’ve only covered once in that stretch.
Now the Huskers face a Baylor team that’s 7-3 ATS on the road this season and has covered in 5 of its last 7 games overall.
Keep in mind, too, in this series Baylor has owned Nebraska recently, going 3-1 SU and ATS their last 4 meetings. Also, in this series the favorite has covered in 7 of their last 10 meetings. Tonight, the favored Bears will cash in again.
3 ♦ BAYLOR
Joel Tyson
Flyers now 11-1 at home this year after pasting Xavier over the weekend, but tonight they are laying too many points, as the 49ers of Charlotte come in on a serious roll.
Bobby Lutz' team is riding a 7 game winning streak, and they have also held their own in this Atlantic 10 rivalry, as the Niners are 4-3 straight up the last 7 series meetings, and they are also 6-1 against the spread in those 7 meetings.
Just too many points to give this Charlotte team that is now 18-5 for the year.
Take the points.
2♦ CHARLOTTE 49ERS
Pete Angelo
Orlando at Chicago
The Magic are looking more and more like the Eastern Conference champs these days, and I'm going to lay a value line with this one, as they're going to be out for revenge for a Jan. 2 loss at Chicago. The Southeast Division-leading Magic are second in the Eastern Conference, 6 1/2 games back of Cleveland, and have covered four of their last six overall.
Lay the road chalk here.
1♦ ORLANDO MAGIC
Chuck O'Brien
Now up to six straight complimentary winners after the Thunder blew out the Blazers last night. For #7 in a row, go against Portland once again as it travels to Phoenix.
This is a perfect situation to play the Suns, who are riding a five-game winning streak (SU and ATS), including a perfect four-game road trip that ended with Friday’s 114-102 rout of Sacramento as a 2½-point road favorite. So while Phoenix comes into this contest extremely well rested (four full days off), the banged-up Trail Blazers are playing their third game since Saturday, and this one in a back-to-back spot with travel involved.
If that’s not bad enough, Portland (already playing without the injured Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw, Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla) saw star forward Martell Webster crash hard to the floor early in the second half of last night’s loss to Oklahoma City. Webster limped off the court and didn’t return, and the depleted Blazers ran out of gas down the stretch, getting out scored 30-16 in the fourth quarter.
While the Blazers have won the last three meetings against the Suns, all three were played in Portland. In fact, the home team has won six in a row in this series, going 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, prior to winning the last three meetings, Portland had lost 11 in a row to the Suns (2-8-1 ATS) and gone 8-23-1 ATS in the previous 32 meetings. On top of that, The Blazers come into tonight having dropped seven in a row in Phoenix, and they’re 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to the desert.
5♦ PHOENIX SUNS
Jeff Benton
Did you like that 6♦ free-play winner on Georgetown last night? That’s now five straight freebie winners and eight of the last nine! Let’s keep that run going Wednesday as I head back to the college hardwood and lay the points with Clemson against Florida State.
The Tigers are obviously a completely different team at home (10-2, including 3-1 when hosting ACC foes) than away from it (6-5, including 1-4 in ACC road games). Tonight, they return to Littlejohn Coliseum, where their three conference victories have come in blowout fashion: 72-56 over Boston College; 83-64 over North Carolina; 62-53 over Maryland.
In this one, Clemson hosts the Seminoles, who have played just three of their last 11 games on the road. And while the last one resulted in a four-point win at Boston College, I’m not all that impressed, because the Eagles are below-average this year. Instead, look at what Florida State did in its two previous roadies: 14-point loss at Duke and a nine-point setback at Maryland.
While Clemson (1-5 ATS last six games) has struggled lately at the betting window, the Seminoles have one of the worst pointspread records in the country (5-13 ATS, including 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, all in conference). Besides, what’s most important here is the fact that Clemson has cashed in seven of its last eight home games, eight of 10 as a favorite and seven straight as a home chalk (while Florida State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog).
Finally, this is a triple-revenge spot for the Tigers, who have lost three straight to Florida State, including getting swept in last year’s home-and home series. But the Seminoles are still just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Clemson; the home team is still 10-4 SU and ATS in the last 14 battles in this rivalry; and the winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 15 meetings going back to 2003!
6♦ CLEMSON
John Ryan
Samford vs. Tennessee Chat
Play: Samford +2.5
3* graded play on Samford as they take on UT-Chattanooga set to start at Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Samford will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 78-41 ATS for 66% winners since 2004. Play against a home team in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams attempting >=20/game and are average ball handling teams committing 14.5-17.5 TOPG versus a poor pressure defense allowing <=14.5 TOPG after 15+ games. Samford HC Tillette is a sound motivator as evidenced by a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a road loss by 20 points. Samford had a tough game last outing losing to Charleston by 19 points as 8.5 point dogs. Take Stamford.
Rocketman
Northern Iowa vs. Drake
Play: Northern Iowa -5
Northern Iowa is the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. Northern Iowa is 21-2 SU overall while Drake is now 11-14 overall on the season. Northern Iowa is 7-1 ATS on the road this season. Northern Iowa allows only 55 points per game overall and 56.7 points per game on the road this season. Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Northern Iowa tonight!