Sean Murphy
Atlanta Thrashers @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche -175
I like the killer instinct the Avalanche have shown in their last few home games, reeling off three straight victories and outscoring their opponents by a combined 13-3 margin.
Tonight Colorado welcomes the Atlanta Thrashers to the Pepsi Center, and while they did post a win in their last game, don't count on them to make it two in a row on Wednesday.
Atlanta defeated Florida on Saturday, but that win isn't all that impressive when you consider how poorly the Panthers have played lately. They've lost four straight games, outscored 13-4 over that stretch. Florida has no offensive firepower to speak of, having scored only 13 goals over its last 11 games.
The Thrashers are just 12-18 on the road this season and have dropped 15 of their last 18 games played away from home. They did sweep last year's season series, but that was against a much weaker Avalanche squad.
Colorado owns a solid 18-10 record at home this season and brings excellent form to the table tonight having won nine of its last 13 games overall. The Avs offense has been heating up and they should have their way with a Thrashers team that allows 3.2 goals per game on over 34 shots per game on the road this season.
The fact that the Thrashers are coming off a win doesn't help their case tonight. They've lost seven of their last eight games following a victory. They also own a miserable 1-10 record in their last 11 games against winning opponents.
The Avalanche have been a solid play as a mid-range favorite, going 18-8 in their last 26 games when priced between -150 and -200.
Colorado will get another home game against Phoenix on Friday before closing out the pre-Olympic break action against the Kings in Los Angeles on Saturday. After dropping both matchups last year, look for them to earn some revenge against the Thrashers tonight. Take Colorado.
TEDDY COVERS
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors
PICK: Golden State Warriors +1.5
The Clippers haven’t just been bad on the road – they’ve been awful. LA is on a 2-14 SU run on the highway, dating back to before Christmas. The Clips haven’t just been bad on the second night of back-2-backs – they’ve been awful. LA is 0-5 SU in their last five tries on the second night of consecutive games here in 2010.
Mike Dunleavy is gone, but the Clippers aren’t any better with Kim Hughes at the helm. Most teams enjoy a temporary boost in energy and confidence when they get a new coach. The Clips are 0-2 SU and ATS under Hughes. In both games, LA showed little passion or desire during crunch time. Last night, after playing three quarters of solid basketball against Utah, the Clips laid down and got beat down in the fourth quarter, failing to win or cover once again.
So why is LA favored on the second night of back-2-backs on the road at Golden State tonight? Sure, Golden State has lost nine in a row, but eight of those nine came against playoff caliber squads – this is a step down in class for the Warriors here. And no team wants to go into the All Star break on a ten game skid – expect intensity and passion from Golden State here, something the Clips simply don’t have these days. 2* Take Golden State.
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Raptors -6
The only reason the Raptors aren't more heavily favored at home tonight is due to the fact that Philly has won 5 straight games. But with that winning streak also comes big expectations from the betting public. So the odds makers have set this number too low, and we'll capitalize with the favored Raptors as they roll at home tonight. First off, the 76ers are playing on no rest after winning in Minnesota last night, while the Raptors are playing on 2 days' rest since beating the Kings at home. Toronto is 7-1 S.U. in their last 8 games overall, so they are even hotter than the 76ers right now. The Raptors are 19-6 S.U. & 15-10 ATS at home this season, so they are also one of the best home teams in the game. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. Take the Raptors and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Blazers/Suns UNDER 210
Reasons why this game goes UNDER:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHOENIX) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games. This is a 37-9 UNDER System hitting 80.4% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 this season. No Brandon Roy for Portland, along with several other key injuries, has really hurt this team offensively.
2.) Portland is 9-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER 210 points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Magic/Bulls UNDER 196
After a poor performance against New Orleans, allowing 117 points, expect the Magic to clamp down on the defensive end tonight to keep this one Under the number. In fact, Orlando is 7-0 Under after allowing 105 points or more this season and we are only seeing 190.1 total points scored in these spots. Orlando is also 8-1 Under in road games after scoring 110 points or more this season and Chicago is 15-4 Under after one or more consecutive overs this season. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors +1.5
Look for the Warriors to end their 9-game losing streak at home tonight against a Clippers squad that just played last night. Over the last 3 seasons, the Warriors have won 6 of the 9 meetings between these two teams, including 4 of 5 at home. Plus, we certainly can't ignore the fact that plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against an opponent coming off a loss by 10 points or more, are 28-5 ATS since 1996. Lastly, Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Warriors.
King Creole
MIN / CHL Over 198
WITH BOTH TEAMS playing last night... we can look for a high-than-expected outcome on Wednesday in terms of the OVER / UNDER. We'll let this OU line continue to go down off the opening number of 210.... and then pounce on the 'OVER' when it bottoms out.
9-1-1 O/U last 12 months: All NBA Eastern Conference road favorites (CHARLOTTE) in a '0/0' REST situation (both teams played last night)....
6-0 O/U last 2 seasons: All NBA road favorites of 12 < points playing off a SU win BUT an ATS loss (BOBCATS)... versus any opponent off a SU loss of 20 or more points (T'WOLVES).
We definitely have a PLAY... when we see numbers like this:
CHARLOTTE is 4-0-1 O/U In a '0/0' REST situation against non-conference opponents...
MINNESOTA is 6-1 O/U in a '0/0' REST situation....
Dan Bebe
PHO -9 vs POR
This is a situation where a team, weakened by injuries and desperately looking forward to the All Star Break (where they'll hopefully get their superstar back) is running into a buzz saw!
The Trailblazers are clearly growing weaker, and as teams are starting to see how to pretty easily defend the Roy-less Blazers, Portland is getting spanked. They had one emotional late-game comeback over the Spurs, but San Antonio was on a back-to-back, and we all know how that team crumbles late in back-to-back situations.
Since that game, Portland has been manhandled, first by the Kobe-less Lakers, and then last night by the surging Thunder. So, what's to stop this team from mailing in this last game before the All Star Break, especially against a team on revenge, the Suns, and a team that has taken on a new, relentless attitude?
Phoenix has won, and covered, 5 straight games, which, unfortunately, has sucked a little bit of the value out of them, but I believe this line is attracting enough money on Portland where books aren't necessarily taking a position. We might not be getting the huge line value we could have gotten on the Suns if we jumped on the bandwagon a week ago, but Portland is capsizing, and when a team just isn't going to show up, it's not a bad idea to fade that team.
The Suns have really impressed me over the last 2 weeks. I know these numbers aren't that impressive, but Phoenix has actually held Denver to just 97 points, New Orleans to 100, Sacramento to just 102, and Dallas to just 106. The Suns allow over 107 ppg on the season, so to consistently hold opponents under that mark is a testament to how strong the Suns have been lately. They're scrappy on the defensive end, and a lot of that has been the insertion of Robin Lopez into the starting lineup. He dives for loose balls, pushes bodies around for rebounds, blocks shots, gets his hands into passing lanes, and while he's not as skilled as his brother, he is giving the Suns the energy they haven't seen since Shawn Marion's days.
This is going to be a game that sees the Suns get out to a lead, and the undermanned Blazers just aren't going to be able to keep up. Portland might hit a few threes to go on short 6-0 spurts, but over the course of the game, we'll see this lead open up, and I think the Suns may lead by 20 at some point in the game. With a big spread like 9, there is a back door open, but I think Phoenix's relentless style of play is going to keep them up big. They're playing with confidence, Amare Stoudemire has a renewed vigor, and just watching them handle Sacramento really showed how much they care about each possession, and how the team's goal right now is not just to squeak out wins but to impose their will.
Play the Suns for a half unit!