Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke vs. North CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DukeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a free play on Duke over North Carolina Wednesday night as College Basketball's biggest rivalry is renewed. Both teams come in hot as the 8th ranked Blue Devils are 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight games with the loss coming in overtime at Syracuse. The underdog Tar Heels have won and covered five straight.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Stepping Up - Save for a 12-point loss at the Carrier Dome against Syracuse, UNC has yet to really step up and play any of the big boys in the ACC. Also remember that prior to this five-game win streak, they had gone 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS their previous five games. They are still only 6-4 in conference play. They lost both meetings last year against the Blue Devils.
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2. Too Much Offense - Duke leads the nation in offensive efficiency as they average 128.7 points per 100 possesions. They shot 56% at Boston College Saturday, winning by 21 pts.
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3. X-Factor - Laying points hasn't been a problem for Coach K's charges as they are 14-7 ATS as favorites this season.
Freddy Wills
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -3
Illinois is not a good road team and that's an under statement. They are 2-5 on the road and are coming off a road win against Penn State, but they have not won back to back road games in 5 years. In road games this year they are shooting 35.3% from the field including 27.5% from 3. They only get to the FT line 12.9 times and are being out rebounded as well. I really do not see how Illinois can win this game unless Nebraska chokes.
Nebraska is not a great team by any means, but they have been a special team at home this year going 10-1. Their lone loss was against Michigan by 1 point. They recently beat Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio State. They shoot 47.2% from the field, 37.3% from three while enjoying nearly 7 more FTA, courtesy of the refs/home crowd influence and they +2.6 in turnovers and +1.9 in rebound margin. They play good enough defense to get the job done especially against an Illinois team that has struggled big time on the road to score points.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sweden/Czech Republic Over 4½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There are two games today to open the tournament. Latvia plays Switzerland and there’s this game that goes off at the same time. Lavtia has two NHL players on its roster while Switzerland has seven, including goaltender Jonas Hiller of the Ducks. We mention that because the total for the Latvia/Switzerland game is the same total as the Sweden/Czech Republic game. That’s ridiculous.
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Sweden and Czech Republic are both loaded with all-star caliber NHL talent up front. These teams are not put together like an NHL squad in that there are no checking lines or “fourth lines” to disrupt the opposition in any way. What we have here is four lines on both teams that feature scorers and point producers. The Czechs’ defense is a weak area that the Swedes figure to exploit. In terms of goaltending, that’s another weak area for the Czechs’ with Ondrej Pavelec getting the start. Pavelec has one of the NHL’s worst save percentages. For the Swedes, it’ll be Henrik Lundqvist and he’s having an average season because like every other goaltender on the planet, age and miles are beginning to catch up to him. The game is too fast for slowing down goaltenders and while that may be a little premature to suggest, Lundqvist looks nothing like he has the past few years and was showing signs of slowing down last season. In any event, Sweden and Czech Republic can’t be the same total as Latvia/Switzerland. That would be like an NFL game between Denver and Indy having the same total as a game between Seattle and San Francisco. Again, ridiculous. Play it over.
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Sweden -111 over Czech RepublicFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Three-way betting. The Czechs have some great parts. They are loaded with some of the hardest working, grittiest and most difficult players to play against the NHL. Vladimir Sobotka is a constant pest that is relentlessly preventing the best lines in the NHL from scoring. Devils forwards Patrick Elias and Jaromir Jagr are both ageless. Elias is one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and Jagr, well, he may be slow but he’s incredible at protecting the puck and finding the open man. They should make a video of Jagr throughout his career and show it to every kid that wants to play hockey and instruct that kid to, “work as hard as that guy and emulate your game after him”. The Czechs may be short on flash up front but they have a solid core of players throughout the lineup.
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Unfortunately for the Czechs, they are not close to having the same talent as the Swedes, Russians, Canadians or Americans. Defensively, the Czechs top six are Marek Zidlicky, Tomas Kaberle Michal Rosival, Radko Gudas, Milan Michalek and Ladislav Smid. From a puck moving standpoint, an impressive group this is not. Ladislav Smid over Jan Hejda? Seriously? Smid is having a brutal year in Calgary while Hejda is having an all-star season in Colorado. These are mostly stay at home defensemen with the Czechs defensive depth rounded out by two European leaguers, unfamilar to North Americans. In net, the heavy workload will go to Winnipeg’s Ondrej Pavelec. If he’s not great, the Czechs will not defeat any of the other aforementioned powers in this tournament. Save percentage wise, Pavelec is one of the worst starters in the NHL. The Czechs backups are Alexander Salak, who could not crack either Florida or Chicago's lineup and is now a starter for St. Petersburg and Jakub Kovar who plays for Yekaterinburg Autombolist. As all the other contenders down to Switzerland can start a potentially world class goaltender, this must be seen as a major weak point for the Czechs. Finally, the big European ice surface is one that is not going to benefit the Czech’s style. They have put together a team that is better suited for North American rinks. That’s not to say they are going to be an easy out. The Czechs have the potential to be a big-time spoiler and could even grab a medal with the talent they have but weak goaltending and poor puck possession defensemen are huge obstacles to overcome when facing elite talent like they’ll see here.
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Sweden is wickedly talented at every position. They have puck-dazzling skills up front, a mobile group of d-men with outstanding puck possession skills and a proven Olympic and NHL goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist is really our only concern, despite many people insisting he’s still great. Still, given a choice between Lundqvist and Pavelec, we’d pick Lundqvist 100% of the time. Up front and led by the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Gabriel Landeskog, Henrik Zetterberg, Alexander Steen and Gustav Nyquist, this group will cause chaos among opposing defenses. There are no glaring weaknesses on Team Sweden's roster besides perhaps a lack of physicality, which means if all goes to plan they should definitely threaten for gold. Sweden is the complete package (although the loss of Henrik Sedin is a blow) that includes a wealth of experience and pure hockey talent and we’ll step in on this group right away to win their opener.
EZWINNERS
Syracuse +1
Pittsburgh let one get away the first time these two teams met in Syracuse, so I'm sure a lot of people like the Panthers to knock off the number one team in the nation, but I'm not one of them. I like Syracuse to keep the undefeated season alive in another close one. Play on Syracuse
DAVE COKIN
AIR FORCE AT SAN JOSE STATE
PLAY: AIR FORCE -1.5
There’s not much on the line tonight as Air Force takes on San Jose State. Both the Falcons and Spartans are mired in nasty losing streaks. But there’s at least an opportunity for a rare win for either side tonight, so this actually could end up being a pretty good basketball game.
Air Force has dropped six in a row since defeating, you guessed it, San Jose State. The Falcons have also notched conference wins over Utah State and they stunned UNLV on the road, so they at least know what it’s like to win.
San Jose State was at 6-6 heading into the new year. Since the calendar flipped to 2014, the Spartans are 0-11, and nearly all the losses have been decisive. The only close calls were against Colorado State and a very lazy on that day New Mexico entry. All the others have been double digits, so this team isn’t even getting close right now.
I’m pretty sure we’ll get the ultimate effort from the home team tonight. The Spartans have to know this is their best chance to get a league win, and it logically follows that they’ll be treating this as a really big game. But the truth is they appear to be so far behind the rest of the league that going winless in the MWC looks like a reality.
San Jose has one other thing going for them here. This team lives and dies with the three-ball. That’s their offense. The Spartans love to launch, and Air Force is a team that can be very vulnerable to the long range missiles.
Unfortunately for San Jose, they have been very much off target with those threes in league play. The Spartans are also basically unable to stop anything, and even in the midst of a bad run, Air Force is still doing a good job of setting up high percentage looks.
In matchups such as these, I’ll usually side with what is at least the more reliable fundamental team. If San Jose enjoys a breakout night on the treys, this probably goes down the drain. But I don’t see that as a likelihood, so I’m willing to buy the better basic basketball side, and I’ll back Air Force to get away with the win and cover.
Larry Ness
Illinois at Nebraska
Play: Nebraska
Illinois opened the current season 13-2, losing only a three-point decision at Ga Tech and by seven points to Oregon (in Portland), a team which opened 13-0. However, the Fighting Illini then lost EIGHT straight games from Jan 8 through Feb 4 (1-7 ATS), with their lone cover coming as an 11-point underdog in a seven-point loss at Ohio St. Illinois snapped its eight-game losing skid with a 60-55 mild upset at Penn State on Sunday but that's hardly a "buy signal."
The Illini are a poor shooting team, ranking 315th (of 351 schools) in FG percentage at 41.2% and 312th in three-point percentage at 31.0%. Illinois is led by a three-guard lineup including Drake transfer Rice (16.5-6.0), Abrams (11.5-3.2 APG) and Bertrand (10.6-4.9). This not very deep team owns just two frontcourt players of note in the 6-7 Ekey (7.9-5.4) and the 6-11 Egwu (6.9-5.3).
Now Nebraska is not exactly an NCAA tourney team either (12-10 overall, including 4-6 in Big Ten play) but Tim Miles is starting to make a "visit to Lincoln" an unpleasant one for all opponents. Texas Tech transfer Petteway (17.4-5.3) is easily the Cornhuskers' best player (he's a 6-6 forward). He's get help up front from the 6-10 Pitchford (8.7-4.4) and the 6-8 Smith (6.7-5.5). Three guards contribute in Shields (11.0-5.3), Gallegos 97.9) and Webster (5.1).
Nebraska may be just 12-10 overall but here at home the 'Huskers are 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (lone loss was 71-70 to Michigan). While on the season Nebraska barely outscores its opponents (67.1-to-66.9 PPG), the 'Huskers are outscoring opponents at Pinnacle Bank Arena on average, 71.2-to-60.1 PPG. Yes, the Illini finally won a game but they can't expect another 19-point effort from 6-3 true freshman Kendrick Nunn (4.6 PPG on the season), like at Penn St.
SIX of the Cornhuskers 10 losses have come against opponents ranked in the USA Today Coaches? Poll, but SIX of their remaining eight foes have losing conference records. ?We?ve been through the most brutal part of our schedule and, at the end of the day, we?re still probably going to have a top-20 schedule in the country, coach Tim Miles told the Lincoln Journal Star.
Nebraska has eight regular season games left (plus at least one in the Big Ten tourney), then should play in one of the three "lesser" postseason tourneys. I think Nebraska is headed for a 17-win season (or more). For that to happen, a home win over Illinois is a MUST!
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia/Utah Under 204
The Utah Jazz have home court advantage, and I think that will play a key role in this game staying under the total. With the Jazz playing at home they should be able to control the pace of this game. Utah is averaging a mere 94.1 points per game this season, and that has come against opponents with a defensive scoring average over 100 points per game. The 76ers defense is bad, but I don't think the Jazz are a good enough team to take advantage of that poor defensive play.
Both of these teams are trending towards the under recently. Utah has gone under the total in six consecutive games, while the under is 4-1-1 in Philadelphia's last six games. The Jazz defense is very underrated for a team with an 18-33 record. They have held opponents to 99.4 points per game against at home, against opponents with an offensive scoring average just shy of 102 points per game. They will catch a break in this matchup with Philadelphia since the 76ers are averaging a mere 99.2 points per game on the road this season. All signs point to this game finishing with a very low score.
Matt Fargo
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Miami Heat +1
Miami comes into this game after playing in Phoenix on Tuesday and while playing back-to-back games are never easy, the Heat have done a solid job of it this season. They are 7-2 when playing with no rest which includes a 3-1 record both straight up and against the number when it is the second of consecutive road games. Miami has had its fair share of issues on the road this season and we saw that just recently in the second game of this roadtrip when it went to Utah and lost to the Jazz outright while putting up just 89 points. Even with that, the Heats have had great success against the Western Conference this season as they are 14-4 after the win last night. One of those four losses came at home against Golden St. in their first game of 2014 as they allowed a season high of 123 points with the Warriors shooting over 56 percent from the floor including 51.7 percent from long range. It's pretty safe to say Miami has not forgotten that one. We played on Miami when it was revenging a same season loss against the Knicks and it rolled and that improved the Heat to 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games revenging a same season loss. Golden St. continues to be pretty inconsistent as it is just 7-8 in its last 15 games following a 10-game winning streak. The Warriors, which were off on Tuesday, are now 1-6 straight up and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win while winning just one of eight games as an underdog. The road team has won the last three meetings in this series and I expect that domination to continue on Wednesday.
Doug Upstone
Dallas vs. Indiana
Play: Over 197
On Hump Day, Play OVER on teams like Indiana when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, who score 98-102 points a game, against a mediocre defensive team like Dallas (102 or more PPG allowed), after allowing 80 points or less in their previous outing. The rationale for this free play is teams like the Pacers will get their points against a defense like the Mavs, but are unlikely to have anywhere close to such a defensive effort like the last time. In the past 18 years, this rare occasion is 24-5, 82.8%.
Tony Stoffo
Hawks vs. Raptors
Play: Over 202
Early morning line movement making for this total play here as the Hawks and Raptors march-up in Toronto this evening. The money is slightly towards the over for this game - however the Sharps must have come in heavy on the over as the odds makers have had to already make numerous adjustments to this total upwards trying to get some under action trying to balance their books. This odd early movement sure makes for a solid release on the over in this spot here. Over this posted total the play here.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. CLIPPERS -8 over Portland
Indeed the Trail Blazers look appealing taking back eight points. In fact, this is the most points that the Blazers have been offered the entire season. Even when they played at Indiana just five days ago, Portland was a 6-point dog and lost in OT by five. Why the Trail Blazers are being offered so many points is a question that must be asked because we can assure the oddsmakers did not put up a “bad number”. The oddsmakers are betting that the Blazers home loss to Oklahoma City last night will have a rippling effect. Portland had everything going for them in that game to emerge victorious but a poor third quarter followed by a horrible shooting fourth quarter did them in. The Blazers had the ball down one with 13 seconds remaining but could not make the key shot to win it. A demoralizing loss it was and the Blazers walked off the court with their heads down. The Blazers will now hit the road for their final game before the break. It will be their fifth road game in their past six starts and sixth straight game of traveling. This line suggests that mentally, Portland may already be on their All-Star break.
The Clippers have Chris Paul back. They’ve been home for three consecutive games, going 2-1 over that span with victories by 45 and 13 points over Philadelphia and Toronto respectively. Prior to those two wins, the Clippers lost by four to the Heat and by one-point at Denver. This is L.A.’s last game before the break also and Doc Rivers’ crew is focused on ending it with a focused and strong performance. The point-spread is the real tell-tale sign here for us to endorse spotting the points. If you were thinking of taking the points, we urge you to be cautious because the line is telling us that the Clip Joint will hand it to the Blazers in this very favorable spot.
Sacramento +5½ over NEW YORK
The Kings have dropped three in a row and they’re coming off a 10-point loss at Cleveland last night. The Kings will also play their third game in four days while the Knicks have been off since Sunday. When you consider all that, the Kings don’t have much going for them here but this isn’t about wagering on the Kings as much as it is about fading the Knicks.
Carmelo Anthony is the Knicks leader. Carmelo Anthony is going to the All-Star game and couldn’t care less about the inconvenience of having to play one more game when the spotlight is waiting for him in New Orleans. When your leader doesn’t give a hoot, it affects the rest of the guys and that’s been the Knicks problem this entire year. Anthony is a great player when the light is shining on him but on most nights he can be found laughing and joking around with the opposition after a 20-point loss. The Knicks are 2-4 in February and owner James Dolan might be getting ideas after seeing Maurice Cheeks and Cavaliers general manager Chris Grant lose their jobs last week. Mike Woodson will undoubtedly be the fall guy in New York, but that's only because Dolan can't fire his players. When the going gets tough, the Knicks usually throw in the towel and if the Kings show up tonight, they’ll not only cover but they’ll win outright. The Knicks are not a team you want to be spotting points with the game before the break.
SPORTS WAGERS
DELAWARE -8 over James Madison
James Madison will play its third road game in its last four starts over the past 12 days. That’s a tough slate for strong programs but for a weak program like JMU, it’s a death sentence. The Dukes of James Madison have four wins in 14 road games. They have played every cream puff in the country and have lost most of them while getting smoked numerous times, especially when traveling. JMU has an 18-point loss at Drake, a nine-point loss at Towson and when they played the team in second place in the Colonial, William & Mary, they lost by 22. The Dukes rank 294th in FG %, 348th in assists per game and 281st in rebounding and that’s after playing one of the easiest schedules in Division I basketball.
Delaware is 10-0 in the Colonial. They are 9-1 at home and many of those have been blowouts. Delaware has a five-point loss at Notre Dame, a four-point loss at #6 Villanova and a 12-point loss at #22 Ohio State. The Bulldogs came into conference play locked and loaded and has imposed their will on just about every team they have played. Delaware is likely going to win the Colonial Conference and receive an automatic bid to the dance and they are precisely the type of team that can break up brackets. Delaware ranks 25th in the country in points per game and they have five players averaging double digits. The Bulldogs have been off for a full week and the reports are that they can’t wait to get back on the floor. The reason this line isn’t -15 is because Delaware has two key players suspended for violating policies. Jarvis Threatt and Marvin King-Davis will sit out until March but we’re suggesting that the team will dig down even deeper in support. James Madison gave Delaware a scare when they played at JMU on January 11 in a four-point Delaware victory. In no way will this one resemble that one.
Andrew Lange
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
Play: Under 125
I don't think there is any debate that tonight's Syracuse-Pitt game is going to be slow. In ACC play, the Orange are averaging an incredibly low 55 possessions per game while Pitt isn't exactly pushing the tempo either at just over 61. In the first meeting, even with both squads scoring a point per possession and attempting 41 free throws, the game produced only 113 points. Typically when you get one "extreme" in the first meeting (slow pace, low scoring) teams make adjustments and the opposite takes place in the rematch. I'm not sure we see that tonight as both teams indicated it was likely to be another bloodbath. Obviously with a total this low crazy things can happen late to bust a play on the under. But I don't project more than 60 possessions and in this type of atmosphere, buckets will be at an absolute premium.
Teddy Covers
Miami vs. Golden State
Pick: Miami
A focused Heat team is more than capable of winning on any floor against any foe. And I’m expecting another strong effort from Miami this evening, just as they had last night in Phoenix.
Miami’s focus heading into the All Star break cannot be questioned – they’ve gone 2-0 SU in their last two games before the break in every season since LeBron took his talents to South Beach; winning each and every one of those games by seven points or more. The fact that Dwayne Wade is expected to suit up after missing last night’s game tells us all we need to know about Miami not mailing it in their last game before the break.
And Miami in revenge mode is not a minor factor to consider either. They’ve gone 5-1 SU in ‘revenge mode’ this year; cashing winning bets consistently when facing a team that beat the Heat outright in the last meeting between the two teams.
The Heat certainly haven’t forgotten what Steph Curry and the Warriors did to them last month in Miami. Golden State hit 56 percent from the floor and 15-29 from three point range while hanging 123 on the Heat in a wire-2-wire win, the most points Miami has allowed this season.
Golden State is a banged up team heading into the All Star break, expected to be without their two best low post defenders tonight (Andrew Bogut and Jermaine O’Neal). They’re a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ coming off a 43 point blowout against Philly on Monday.
It’s surely worth noting that the Warriors are 2-10 ATS at home coming off a win, unable to string quality performances together. And it’s also worth noting that the Warriors are laying points here in a game where they are not the better of the two teams, especially considering that their championship caliber foe is playing with meaningful revenge.
Tom Stryker
Loyola-Chicago vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Northern Iowa -10
Off three consecutive straight up losses to Indiana State, Illinois State and Wichita State, Northern Iowa will look to get healthy against this soft Loyola Chicago bunch. Ramblers head coach Porter Moser has his troops resting at 9-15 SU (4-8 SU in the MVC) and they enter this contest off a small upset home win over Illinois State.
The fact that this game is being played inside the McLeod Center is huge for UNI. In their own backyard coming off the comforts of a home game, the Panthers are a proud 54-14 SU and 34-22 ATS including a profitable 22-3 SU and 19-6 ATS in this set matched up against an opponent that enters off a SU and ATS win. With those two parameters live and Northern Iowa running with four or more days of rest, this situation zooms to an eye-popping 10-0 SU and ATS.
Back on January 25th, Loyola Chicago (+5') upset UNI in overtime on its homecourt 93-87. The Ramblers won't be as fortunate this time around. Dating back to last season, Loyola has lost 15 straight on true foreign courts including its last six by an average of 9.5 points per game. Also, when coming off a straight up underdog victory, the Ramblers have been rocked hard notching a dismal 12-23-1 ATS in their last 36 battles including a stiff 4-11-1 ATS if its opponent hits the court off a straight up loss.
Statistically speaking, the Panthers are ripping the nets for an average of 74.0 points per game and should do plenty of damage matched up against a Ramblers defense that has allowed opponent to connect on .478 of their shots from the field. Revenge will be sweet for head coach Ben Jacobson's kids tonight. Take Northern Iowa.