Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +9½
The Dallas Mavericks (31-22) are clinging on to the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. They certainly want to go into the All-Star Break with some nice momentum with a good showing at Indiana tonight.
That's especially the case after an ugly 89-114 loss at Charlotte last night. The Mavericks were playing well prior to that performance having won five straight, so I'm chalking this one up to an aberration. The Bobcats couldn't miss, shooting 54.9% from the floor.
Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off a 119-80 home win over a Denver Nuggets team that was playing its JV squad. The Nuggets have a huge laundry list of injuries, which has resulted in very poor play of late. The Pacers simply took advantage.
Due to Dallas being blown out last game, and Indiana winning in blowout fashion last time out, this line has been inflated. Asking the Pacers to beat a very good Mavericks' team by double-digits is simply asking too much tonight.
Dallas is 8-0 ATS in road games after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Mavericks are 15-3 ATS off a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last two years. Dallas is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 road games overall. The Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
Ray Monohan
Washington Wizards +9
The Wizards are not elite but they are a fantastic road against the number at 17-8 ATS after a close loss at Memphis. I like the way they can match up with Houston because they have size and their guards are among the most productive in the league. Houston beat the Wizards easily in Washington so I think this one might be a little inflated. Still it might even go up a point or two the more people look at last night’s Wizards game and the fact that Houston is well rested.
Alex Smart
Buffalo vs Miami Ohio
Play: Buffalo
The Buffalo Bulls have won two games in a row and 4 of their L/5 and are in a good position to make it 3 in a row here in Miami Ohio this Wednesday evening. Meanwhile Miami is operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum and have lost 2 in a row and 3 of their L/4. Considering the momentum of each team, and data that suggests that the wrong side is favored ....makes the Bulls look very much like a solid bet. Im wagering Bulls star Javon McCrea (18 ppg) /10.2 rpg leads a well balanced group along with a deep bench to a road win vs downtrodden foes.
Final notes & Key Trends:Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Red Hawks are 9-24-2 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Red Hawks are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Michael Alexander
Georgia vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State +3
The Georgia Bulldogs are just 1-5 on the road this season, with the lone victory a 70-64 overtime upset of Missouri on Jan. 8. Sophomore guard Charles Mann leads the team in scoring (13.5) and assists (2.9). Guard Kenny Gaines (11.8 points) and reserve forward Nemanja Djurisic (10.2) also are averaging in double figures. Mississippi State holds a 53-52 series edge thanks to a 72-61 road win in the only meeting between the schools last season.
AC Dinero
Akron vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -1.5
Both teams on a little bit of a roll. Akron has won its past 2 games and WMU its past 3. WMU has the edge statistically, and are at home, so we'll go with them. Akron is a poor FT shooting team. The one concern I have about WMU is their defense has been a bit iffy in recent games.
LT Profits
New Orleans vs Milwaukee
Pick: Over 194.5
The New Orleans Pelicans have hung in well without the injured Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson thanks to former number one draft pick Anthony Davis developing into an All-Star by averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds overall. He has gotten some good scoring support form Eric Gordon while the two starters mentioned have been out, and now Tyreke Evans, who himself has missed time with injuries, is back and scored 23 points off the bench in a loss at Toronto Monday. The combined average of all New Orleans games is 200.9 points, well above this posted total. The Milwaukee Bucks have the worst record in the NBA at 9-42 and they have scored the fewest points in the NBA at 92.2 per game, yet the ‘over’ is still 26-25 in all their games thanks to playing to deflated totals. The ‘over’ is 7-0 in the Pelicans’ last seven road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400.
David Glisan
Texas A&M +3.5
Maybe the better bet to handicap would be an O/U on how many college hoop games will be postponed or canceled due to the winter storm in the Southeast. Ice and snow shouldn't be a problem in Texas, however, and I'll lean to the tough home court of the Texas A&M Aggies. TAMU 12-2 SU on their home court. LSU has some legit frontline talent but not a lot of depth--and they've got even less depth now that Malik Morgan is out. LSU has better size but Aggies are smaller, quicker and arguably better coached.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on George Washington, plus the points over VCU.
This line is a little long for a pair of teams who both have 19 wins this season, and with both hungry to notch No. 20. It's not hard to see why the oddsmakers like Virginia Commonwealth, of course it's not their fault they don't read the newspapers or know enough to research what's been going on with the Rams before making the spread.
While coach Shaka Smart has always been a motivator, and reeks of positivity, several have noted he's been none too pleased with the conditioning of his team, and has rapidly been discouraged in their lack of effort late in games, as they've looked lackadaisical.
Like this past weekend, when St. Joe's looked like the better team late, and pulled away with the victory thanks to Langston Galloway having his way and scoring 24 points in the 69-62. The Hawks had a big lead, let VCU close the gap, but the Rams just didn't have the stamina to get it done.
George Washington, which won the first meeting, 76-66 back in January, comes in having covered seven of eight, and impressively among Atlantic 10 leaders across the board. The Colonials rank in the top five in the league in key categories, including scoring offense (3rd, 74.4 ppg), scoring defense (2nd, 65.3 ppg), field goal percentage (3rd, 47.5 percent) and field goal defense (2nd, 40.3 percent).
Yes, the Rams are a perfect 12-0 at home this season and have won 17 straight at the Siegel Center - the ninth-longest active home win streak in NCAA Division I. But that doesn't mean they should be laying a touchdown by any means. This one stays close, and if the stamina factor comes into play once again, and Smart loses his cool, don't be surprised to see G-Dub win outright.
1♦ GEORGE WASHINGTON
My second free play is going to be out of the NBA, as I take the Los Angeles Clippers over the visiting Trail Blazers, in what is a tough break for Portland. I mean, last night it has all the build up for a huge rivalry game against Oklahoma City, and Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant storm through town and win the game outright. Making matters worse, they both came to Los Angeles.
The Thunder play the lowly Lakers tomorrow night.
But tonight, Staples Center is dressed up in Clippers colors, and the Blazers have to play a well-rested team that will be playing its fourth-straight home game. Since opening the current homestand with that riveting 116-112 loss to the Heat last Wednesday, the Clippers have teed off on Toronto, 118-105, and the 76ers, 123-78, the latter in which was the largest margin of win in franchise history.
Now Doc Rivers' boys - a rejuvenated bunch, I might add, with CP3 back in the lineup - have a chance to close the first half with a solid win and cover. Oh yes, this is Los Angeles' final game before the All-Star break, so a big-time win is all the Clippers are thinking out.
Get home and lick our wounds is all the Blazers are thinking about, after last night's loss. In fact, Portland has now lost five of eight - including three of five on the road. The home team has generally dominated this series, while the Clippers have covered five of the last seven they've hosted in this Western Conference battle.
The favorite is on a 13-6 run when these two meet, and with a double-digit win looming for Los Angeles, you'll be able to make that 14 of 20 after tonight. Lay the points.
2♦ LOS ANGELES
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Memphis Tigers to blast the Central Florida Knights.
UCF has lost their last 8 games straight up, and the points have been of no use either, as the Knights have "rewarded" their backers with just one cover in their last 10 games overall!
Memphis has won 8 of their past 10 games, and have covered in 5 of their last 6 games. The Tigers are also on a 5 game series winning streak over the Knights, and Memphis has also won 9 of the last 10 series meetings against UCF. If you are thinking "maybe this is too many points" for the Tigers to cover? Think again, Memphis is 7-0-1 against the spread in this series, covering double-digits all 3 times they have been asked to.
Blowout of the night goes on Memphis.
4♦ MEMPHIS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Cal Golden Bears in a road appearance up in Pullman, Washington over the hapless Washington State Cougars.
Listen, I'm fully aware that the Bears just aren't very good on the road and if Washington State has any chance of winning a basketball game it's going to be at home, but I've already seen these guys a few times (both home and away) and they just aren't a very good basketball team.
They struggle shooting the ball from deep, they struggle to win the rebound battle, they struggle to defend, their free throw percentages fluctuate way too much.
Granted, I'm not saying Cal is a world beater by any stretch as they haven't played their best basketball over the past few weeks, but this is the type of game that could catapult the Bears back towards the top of the Pac 12 standings.
The bottom line here is... unless the Cougars play out of their minds, chances are they are going to have circles run around them by a very athletic Cal team.
Wazzu has averaged losing by double digits since starting the Pac 12 season and I don't see it getting much better tonight. Take Cal as your free play of the day.
1♦ CALIFORNIA
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the New York Knicks, laying points to the visiting Sacramento Kings.
This is a horrible situation for the Kings, who could get blown out for 20 points. I mean seriously, how bad can Sacramento get, as it's becomes its own worst enemy. The Kings have looked out of sorts during their current four-game junket, and the lack of focus will be trouble against an explosive Knicks team that could throw a 120-spot up without blinking.
Dig it, over their last three games, Sacramento is averaging a mere 90.3 points per contest behind 38.7 percent shooting from the field. Now it gets a team that averages nearly 100 per game, but more importantly, the Kings allow 105.4 ppg on the road. They come in after giving up 109 in a 10-point loss to the Cavaliers last night. This will be Sacramento's fourth road game in six days, and it's yet to win one of them.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are trying to get right themselves, having lost four of five. But they are in after a 112-100 loss at Oklahoma City - a very tough game to play. They've had two days off and should be rested for this one tonight. Lay the points, as the Knicks roll to the huge win and cover.
2♦ NEW YORK
Brad Wilton
The Huskies of Connecticut bounced-back very nicely with their Sunday romp of Central Florida in Orlando on Sunday, now Kevin Ollie's team is back home having won 7 of their last 9 straight up and more importantly having covered 8 of those 9 games.
I will back UConn as the double-digit home favorite on Wednesday as your free play winner over a South Florida side that hits Storrs with losses in 6 of their last 8 games. True, the Bulls have actually covered in 3 of their last 4 games, but this is also a "payback" game for Connecticut, as South Florida handed them a 65-51 gut-punch last March in Tampa Bay.
Yes, this is a big impost to cover, but keep in mind that the Huskies have made good in 7 of their 11 lined home games this season. Going to look for UConn to stretch the closing margin and get the cover on Wednesday night as the big home favorite.
2♦ CONNECTICUT
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for today is on the Los Angeles Clippers, laying points at home against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Two of the Western Conference's top teams meet in Staples Center tonight, as the L.A. Clippers (36-18 SU, 31-23 ATS) host the Portland Trail Blazers (36-16, 28-24) in a key showdown. This is the second meeting of the season, as Portland won the first, at home, 116-112 in overtime back in December. The home team has won four straight meetings.
Why the L.A. Clippers can cover this number - Since Chris Paul has returned to the lineup, the Clippers are looking awfully dangerous, and playing with plenty of confidence heading into the All-Star break. They've won four straight at home against the Blazers, who have lost six of nine overall. Los Angeles is in a very good spot tonight, after having the past two nights off.
Why the Portland Trail Blazers comes in sluggish for this game - The team is taking this trip at the wrong time, there's no doubt about that. The Blazers hosted the conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder last night, lost on their own floor and now have to play a rested Clippers team that has won two straight behind an explosive offensive game, in Los Angeles. Yeah - no shot!
In conclusion, why Los Angeles is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - What's impressed me about the Clippers most of all is their resiliency all season Even without Chris Paul, the Pacific Division leaders went on 12-6 run while he was dealing with a separated shoulder. Now, with him back in the mix, they've looked dominant every step of the way, and despite last week's loss to the Heat, I think they've emerged as the No. 1 contender to the Western Conference-leading Thunder.
The Clippers have been off since Sunday, when they set a franchise record for biggest margin of victory in a 123-78 rout over the Philadelphia 76ers. Blake Griffin had 26 points and 11 rebounds, DeAndre Jordan added a double-doublee of his own with 10 points and 20 rebounds, and Paul contributed with seven points and eight assists. Trust me guys, coach Doc Rivers has his troops ready to close the first half strong. Lay the points tonight, as Portland struggles.
5♦ LOS ANGELES
Wunderdog
Game: St. Peter's at Iona
Pick: St. Peter's +13
The Iona Gaels have built a two-game cushion atop the Metro Atlantic Conference where they are 12-2 on the season. But this could be a place for them to be disinterested against a weak St. Peter's team, that they already beat this season. Iona has won seven straight games, and went over the 100-point mark in their last game for the second time this season. This game is very likely to be played at a much slower pace, as St. Peter's held the Gaels to 71 points in the last meeting, which was the lowest output by Iona in their last 20 games overall. That will make the big number here tough to take down, and Iona has shown a penchant for not bringing the "A" game vs. lesser opponents as they are just 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 vs. a team below .400. Take the points on St. Peter's.
Joe Gavazzi
Toronto Raptors -6
Atlanta is limping into the All-Star break on a 4 game losing streak in which they have averaged just 87 PPG, including a 100-85 loss at Chicago last night in which they never mounted a serious 2nd half threat. Far prefer the upwardly mobile hometown Raptors, who since divesting themselves of Rudy Gay, have gone 20-11 SU and 22-9 ATS, behind a far improved defense. A double digit home court victory is the most probable outcome.