Bill Obrien
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic 1st Half
This game will be a fast paced high scoring affair with Atlanat averaging over 45 percent from the field. I expect the Atlanta defense to be poor as well which will allow Orlando to keep up. Take Orlando in the first half for the easy winner
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North Carolina at DukeFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: North CarolinaFFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is always an intensely physically played game, and I expect nothing different tonight. These teams meet twice every year during the regular season. Regardless of who has the better team, the Tar Heels have almost always managed to stay in it. They have suffered just one loss of more than 11 points since the 2002-03 season. Under Roy Williams, North Carolina is 43-18 ATS when coming off a loss and 55-36 ATS vs. top-level teams (those at .800 or better). Cameron Indoor Stadium is a tough place to play, but the Heels have experienced this so many times, and have a great track record as they have gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven trips. Take North Carolina.
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Duke -11FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blue Devils love nothing more than pounding rival North Carolina at anytime, and this one here is going to be a full throttle thrashing for the hometown fans. The Tar Heels have ben buried by double digits on the road against good teams all year, and some not so good. Miami, Indiana and others have embarassed NC and Duke is vastly better than NC in all aspects. Forget the rivalry here, Duke will have a no sweat double digit lead throughout this game, lay the wood and do not scared of this line. NC off a 26 point beatdown at Miami and Duke has NOT FORGOTTEN the 18 point home beatdown the Tar Heels handed them on their home floor last year- Payback time- Coach K will drop the hammer.
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Arizona State -2 over UTAHFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah’s one-point OT loss at Arizona State in the first conference game of the year has the Utes grossly overvalued here. A lot has happened since then. At the start of conference play, every team has a shot so emotions and intensity are at high levels. With two wins in 11 conference games, the Utes no longer have that same shot as they did when these two met way back on January 2. The Utes are now playing out the string.
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The Sun Devils may just be the most improved team in college basketball. Freshman sensation Jahii Carson is a game changer for the Sun Devils. He makes everyone on the floor better, he anticipates plays like a senior and he has a second speed. Carrick Felix is a big wing who continues to knock down shots. The Sun Devils are rock-solid on the defensive end, with 7-footer Jordan Bachynski's ability to protect the rim. Bachynski averages 3.8 blocks a game. With a 7-4 conference mark (18-6 overall), ASU is a definite bubble team right now. They’re through the tough part of their conference schedule and now this talented group could run the table over its final seven games. The best news is that the Sun Devils are coming off a hurtful loss to Stanford. That should have them plenty focused to dispose of this vastly inferior host.
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Charlotte +11½ over BUTLERFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Butler Bulldogs have set themselves up very nicely for an at large bid if they don’t receive an automatic bid for winning the A-10 championship. They’re ranked #11 in the country, they’re 20-4 overall and they’re 7-2 in the conference. Nice résumé to be sure. However, with this game tonight followed by games against Fordham and Duquesne, who are a combined 2-16 in the conference, the Bulldogs could certainly get caught feeling a little complacent here. This is also the first meeting ever between the two schools so there are no “scores to settle”. It’s worth reiterating that when you wager on ranked teams against non-ranked opponents, you will pay a little extra.
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The 49ers are just 5-4 in the conference but they’re very competitive, having lost at Temple by one point and losing at home to VCU by seven. Charlotte is a strong rebounding and shooting club that racked up a 15-2 overall record at one point while playing the 112th toughest schedule in Division I basketball. The 49ers lost to #3 Miami earlier in the year and their other loss in their non-conference schedule occurred against Florida State by just three points. Trust us, Butler is not close to being the 11th best team in college basketball but they’re a prime example of a team that is falsely ranked in the polls because of its record. We’re not buying.
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Ottawa +179 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. The price being offered on the Senators is somewhat outrageous when you consider that very little separate these two in both the standings and on the ice. The Penguins are 8-5 and they’re coming off back-to-back 3-1 losses to the Devils this past weekend. Prior to that, Pittsburgh had won three straight, defeating the Capitals twice and the Islanders once. Not exactly the cream of the crop. Pittsburgh is just 2-3 at The Igloo and they have not fired more than 28 shots on net in five straight games. They’ll now face one of the hottest goaltenders in the league in Craig Anderson.
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Ottawa had been off since Saturday prior to last night’s 2-0 win over the Sabres. They haven’t been as offensively dangerous as we’d like over the past few games but that’s not a deterrent as the Penguins have just two goals over their last pair. The Sens can compete with anyone. They’re a strong skating team and they’re one of the toughest outs in the NHL. The Senators have defeated the Penguins in three of the past four contests by scores of 5-1, 6-4, and 8-4. The only loss Ottawa suffered over that span occurred in OT. It would appear that Senators Coach Paul Maclean has found some serious flaws in the way the Penguins defend and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit to see the Sens exploit that again. Big overlay.
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Dallas +120 over CALGARYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. The Flames are a hard-working bunch that are not nearly as bad as early projections suggested. However, they offer much more value as a dog than they do as chalk. Since returning home from a brief, three-game trip, Calgary has dropped two straight and they’ve scored just two goals over that span. Only two teams, the Predators and Avalanche have scored fewer goals than Calgary’s 26. They Flames are still without their #1 goaltender and they have just one win in six home games.
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Dallas has quietly reeled off four in a row and while holding the opposition to two goals or less in all four. It may also surprise you to learn that the Stars are among the league leaders in goals allowed and that bodes well here against this offensively challenged host. Dallas started slow with just two wins in seven games followed by this current slate that has seen them play three games on the West Coast, one in Columbus and one at home against Phoenix. Those are not marquee games but it’s allowed Dallas to fly under the radar for the time being. This team is sound with solid goaltending, a strong defense and plenty of offensive firepower. Better team taking money gets our full endorsement.
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NY Knicks -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a fun game this was to watch! Obviously, considering the final score, it's clear that this game was played Denver's way, with a 91.2 face factor! As much as Toronto's perimeter is now more explosive after the trade, the truth is that they were only able to be that on the offensive end yesterday, as they struggled on defense with the Nuggets doing everything they wanted off the dribble, especially Ty Lawson, who completely outplayed Kyle Lowry on this matchup by scoring 29 points with 9 treys made on a 12-20 shooting night! The Raptors's frontcourt were unable to rotate and offer some team help, so the result of that was Denver scoring 70 points in the paint! The Nuggets also owned the Raptors on the boards battle by grabbing 55% of the total boards and outrebounding Toronto by 18-15 on the offensive glass. So, as usual, when Denver gets the edge at the paint and on rebounding, they are competitive, no matter the opponent they are facing at the time.
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On the other side, Toronto took advantage of Denver's absences to have a big offensive game. DeMar DeRozan would have been very well defended by Andre Iguodala if he had played, but as Iguodala was out of yesterday's game, DeRozan had 22 points, 8-18 FG and 8 rebounds. Toronto shot a combined of 10-21 3pts and 13-23 FG on spot up shooting on a great outside shooting game for them. It's known that the Nuggets aren't a good defensive team in closing out the shooters and without their best perimeter defensive player on a poor physical spot for them, Denver naturally struggled on this department. This was especially visible during the fourth quarter. Do you want some proof of that? Well, these are the treys made by the Raptors during the fourth quarter:
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10:22 80-85 John Lucas makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)
9:45 82-88 John Lucas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gay assists)
9:10 83-91 John Lucas makes 26-foot three point jumper
7:03 89-94 Kyle Lowry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amir Johnson assists)
6:18 92-97 John Lucas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)
5:13 94-100 Alan Anderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (John Lucas assists)
2:15 102-105 Alan Anderson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amir Johnson assists)
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From the 10 FG made by Toronto in the last quarter of the game, seven of them were three pointers! Still, the Raptors had problems to keep up with Denver's game pace, something ironic considering it was the Nuggets who were on a bad spot and shorthanded for this game!
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For tonight's game, I really don't like Toronto's spot. They almost lost to Denver last night and they were completely out of gas at the end, especially their starters. The Raptors will play their fourth game in six days and this is also their last game before the All Star break. They won at Indiana on overtime, with Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan playing over 40 minutes, then they played at home against New Orleans, where Rudy Gay played 41 minutes, while yesterday nobody played 40 minutes against the Nuggets, but the game was so intense that it was clear that the Raptors's starters were fading away at the end.
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On the other side, we will have a Knicks team that hasn't played since early Sunday and where they got crushed by the Clippers on National Television, so they will be fired up today to face a tired Raptors team. Toronto won't be ready to play this game, as they simply didn't have time to prepare it and so, they will need to make the necessary adjustments during the game and there isn't a bigger contrast in the basketball styles of the Nuggets and the Knicks! We are talking about Toronto facing on a day a team with the most volume of shots at the rim in the league and then facing a team with the most volume of 3pts shots attempted in the league in the following day! Therefore, it will be very hard for the Raptors's defense to adjust.
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The Knicks had a tough game against the Clippers last Sunday, where their starters hung around the Clippers's starters, but the LA team's second unit made the difference in that game. The Knicks had an horrible spot up shooting game with 4-16 FG and 0.50 PPP, so I expect them to bounce back tonight on a very favorable spot for them. I believe the Knicks are going to blow out the Raptors tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
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Dallas -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In this play, the Kings enter the action on runs of 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS after they squeezed under the number last night at Memphis. But remember that previous to that this was a team on a 3-9 SU, 6-14 ATS run, they are also just 3-6 ATS away unrested. They are prone to being blown-out on the road where they are 2-5 ATS as double digit road dog. You might expect that from a team who allows 103 PPG. Roughly coinciding with the return to health of Dirk, the Mavs enter tonight on a 13-3 ATS run. That includes a loss on this floor to Atlanta Monday night. But they have been a solid 17-11 ATS / loss this season. In addition, they are 10-6 ATS as home chalk of 4+ points this year. From the history books, we find out that Dallas has won 13/14 recently against SAC, with the average margin of victory on this court to be 15 PPG. Finally, consider the fact that losing teams are 64-31 ATS versus sub .400 teams who play with double revenge. Such as the Kings have against the Mavs this season. The bearded ones continue their ascent toward the break even mark.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV -3 over AIR FORCE: I feel that Air Force has been the surprise of the MWC this year, but the Rebels are still the more talented team and have more to play for in this one. UNLV has lost their last 3 on the road, but they got some confidence in beating New Mexico last time out, while Air Force comes in having lost 2 straight. The Falcons are 10-1 at home this year, but the road team is 9-2 ATS the last 11 in this series and I feel that a fully motivated Rebels squad will walk out with a nice 7 to 8 point win in this one.
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Florida State/ Miami Over 126.5: The Canes have been playing at a higher tempo of late and it has resulted in them scoring 76.4 ppg on 48.3% shooting in their last 5 games. The Canes have also knocked down 40% of their shots from long range over that stretch and the should hit a bunch more as the Noles have allowed teams to shoot 43.8% from long range in their last 5 games. The Noles have averaged just 56.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but 3 of those were on the road and they did put up 60 and 73 points in their two home games over that stretch and they have averaged 69.5 ppg at home for the year, including 66.3 ppg in heir ACC home games. Miami has allowed 71 pg in their last 2 ACC road games, so I expect FSU to put up at the very least 63 in this one. Miami should also hit that mark at the very least as their hot offenses will face an FSU defense that has allowed 67.7 ppg at home and 69.2 ppg in their last 5 games. I really don't see how this one doesn't hit the 130's.
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Notre Dame/ Depaul Under 148: Earlier when these teams met there was 150 points scored in that game, but it needed OT to get there. Notre Dame nearly lost that game because they played an uptempo game with the Blue Demons and that is not ND's style of play as he Irish are 327th in the nation in tempo and I feel that at home they will get this game more to their liking. Irish home games have averaged 137.8 ppg on the year and they play excellent defense at home as well. They have allowed 63.1 ppg at home, but remember that number does include the 101 points they allowed in the 5 OT game vs Louisville. That game only put up 120 points in regulation and ND's last 5 home games (Regulation) have averaged just 122.6 ppg, with their defense allowing just 62.8 ppg in those games (Reg), while just 2 of their last 10 Big East games have put more than 138 points and those two were because of OT. The Irish do not like to play in the 140's at all and I just don't see it here, at home. 140 points were scored in regulation in the first meeting, but I expect this one to come in just under that number.
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Missouri -12 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Tigers are 0-5 in true road games this year, yet they are 12 point faves in this game. HMMM. I feel it is warranted though. The Tigers are the much more talented team and they showed how good they are in beating Ole Miss by 19 points the other night. scoring 98 points in the process. Sure they allowed 79 points in the game, but Ole Miss is a high octane offense and the Bulldogs are not as they average just 60.8 ppg at home and have put up just 59.4 pg in their last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs have played good defense at home, where they have allowed 58.2 ppg, but let's take a closer look at that. In their 5 SEC home games they have played slow down teams like LSU, South Carolina and Texas A&M and they allowed 59.3 ppg in those games, with one of them going to OT. In their other 2 SEC home games they took on Florida and Alabama. The Tide is not a great scoring team, but still put up 75 points on this defense, while Florida's high scoring offense put up 82 on them. Missouri should have their way with this defense that has allowed 76.4 ppg on 49.1% shooting in their last 5 games. The Tigers need this one in the worst way and they should get an easy win vs a Bulldog team that was crushed at home by both Bama and Florida. Tigers by 17+ here.
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Mississippi vs. Texas A&MFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas A&M has shown an ability to beat good teams at home they already lost on the road so this is a nice revenge game for them. A&M beat Missouri and took Kentucky to OT recently at home and Miss should struggle on the road where their 2 point defense has struggled allowing 53.2% in their last 3 and 49.5% on the road overall. A&M will take most of their shots from two point range so advantage Aggies. Other than that these two teams are pretty similar in conference play statistic wise and home court should give the Aggies an advantage.
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South Florida -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After being humiliated by Marquette and Villanova in its last two, look for South Florida to take its frustrations out all over a Providence squad it has defeated five times in the last six meetings. Providence checks in off back-to-back upset wins over Villanova and Cincinnati but the momentum gained from those victories has been lost as the Friars haven't played in a week. Plus, they have really struggled on the road where they have dropped 5 of 7. The Bulls are on a 6-0 ATS run in games following 2 straight losses of 15 points or more. They have won by an average of 6.8 points in this situation.
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Dallas Mavericks -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This will be the final game for Dallas before the All-Star break. It certainly wants to go into the break with a win while trying to gain some ground in the Western Conference playoff race. This win would give them some momentum as they chase the 8th and final playoff spot in the West.
I like their chances of a blowout home victory tonight considering how tired the Sacramento Kings will be coming in. Sacramento will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days. That's as tough of a situation as you will find in the NBA.
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The Kings are just 5-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 10.5 points/game. Dallas has won 13 of its last 14 meetings with Sacramento. The Mavericks have won each of their last four home meetings with the Kings all by 10 points or more. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Kings are 4-17-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Dallas.
Dallas is 8-0 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mavs are 24-9 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.
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The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games overall. The Mavericks are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 vs. NBA Pacific division foes. The Kings are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Southwest opponents. Sacramento is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
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Bucks -5.5 over SixersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are riding the Sixers horrible play as of late. Until this team can find the bucket there is no reason not to go against them. This team stinks on the road regardless. I am not thrilled with Milwaukee this year, but I think Philly is about to self destruct and if we can make money on it then why not? Take the Bucks.
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Rockets/Clippers Under 208FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockets will be without Harden tonight and coming off a game last night I expect them to come out flat. I like the Clippers to handle them with ease tonight, but I just can’t take them laying double digits. The value is in the total. I just don’t see Houston getting close to 100 points tonight. Look for an average scoring type game. Take the Under.
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Duke/UNC Under 151.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither team has impressed me this year, but I guess you could say the same thing with all of college basketball this year. For the first time in many years there is not a solid superstar on either team that can totally take control of the game. Both teams have had long scoring droughts this season. I expect this game to be boring and low scoring. Take the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO +125 over Atlanta
This is a talented Atlanta group but not a cohesive one. That’s one of the reasons they’ve won just seven of their past 19 games. You would be hard-pressed to find another team in the NBA that has pulled as many no-shows as this visitor has this season. It could very well happen again on this night. Atlanta is coming off a nice win over Dallas on Monday. At the end of this game, they’re off for a full week before returning to face the Heat after the All-Star break. With trade rumors swirling in Atlanta and much internal dissention, few teams are looking more forward to this time off.
Orlando just snapped a 12-game losing streak to lift a big weight off its shoulders. They play hard every night and you can expect a little extra out of them tonight in an attempt to shed another weight. The Magic have dropped six straight to this intruder. They have not defeated Atlanta since a playoff game back in April of 2011. Now J.J. Reddick is in his second game back after missing some time with a sore right shoulder and Jameer Nelson has contributed with 28 assists over the past two games. Magic outright is the prudent call here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +113 over DETROIT
The Wizards continue to move up in the power rankings. They’re currently on a 4-0 run with wins over the Clippers, Knicks, Nets and Bucks. If the season ended today, all four of those teams would qualify for the playoffs. Healthy and loaded with big bodies, outstanding rebounding, solid defense and momentum, the Wizards get a chance to extend their streak to five. Bradley Beal, playing his second game since missing five due to a sprained wrist, scored a season-high 28 points off the bench against Milwaukee while Nene posted his third consecutive double-double with 21 points and a season-best 13 rebounds. Said Beal, “We hate that the break is coming up”. That’s the mentality of the entire team right now as they’re anxious to suit up each night.
Detroit has had some decent wins over the past few games which include a 10-point win over San Antonio and a five-point win over Milwaukee. More telling is that the Pistons are 6-26 when scoring 100 points or fewer and chances are high that they won’t come close to breaking that plateau against a Wizards team in their current form.