Matt Fargo
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
PICK: Wake Forest +1.5
The two worst teams in the ACC hook up tonight in what has the makings of a bore fest. However there is money to be made as Wake Forest looks to leapfrog Georgia Tech and send the Yellow Jackets to the basement. The Demon Deacons are 2-9 in the conference and they have been non-competitive over their last six games, losing by double-digits in each and going down in those games by an average of 17 ppg. However, those came against some very stellar teams.
Like Wake Forest, the Yellow Jackets have put together a very poor runs with losses in seven of their last eight games with the lone win coming against Boston College. The schedule has been equally tough for them as well but after two straight home games, Georgia Tech hits the road where it is just 3-6 on the season and going back to 2008-09, it is just 3-26 in its last 29 ACC road games. Three of its four ACC road losses have been by double-digits.
Wake Forest certainly doesn't have much to play for in this disappointing season but getting some retribution is on the list. The Demon Deacons lost both meetings to Georgia Tech last season and they were not good losses as they went down by 26 and 35 points. The Demon Deacons are 7-6 at home this season which is far from strong but that gives them the edge here. Georgia Tech has struggled on the road as mentioned and it is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 road games against teams with a winning home record.
While the recent run for Wake Forest has been abysmal, the Demon Deacons fall into a solid situation as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 63 and 67 ppg, going up against teams averaging fewer than 63 ppg, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1997. Also, the Demon Deacons are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home.
David Banks
Philadelphia 76ers
The upstart Philadelphia 76ers (20-9, 18-10-1 ATS) will look to increase their win streak to three on Wednesday night when they invade Orlando to battle the recently surging Magic (18-11, 16-13 ATS); the Amway Center festivities are set to begin at 7:00 ET.
The Sixers took baby steps last season in getting the franchise back on track by posting a 41-41 SU record in the regular season before falling in the conference quarterfinals to the Miami Heat in five games. Head Coach Doug Collins and his staff have done such wonders with this squad in such a short time that the Sixers are now a viable threat out of the Eastern Conference. Though Philly has only registered three straight up wins against teams ranked in Sagarins Top 10, theyll look to close out this road trip a perfect 3-0 after going into both Cleveland and Charlotte and posting dubs. The triumphs improved the 76ers to 7-4 SU & 6-4-1 ATS away from the Wells ***** Center. The experience of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand has meshed superbly with up and comers Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks, and Louis Williams that Philadelphia ranks amongst the best in the league at both ends of the court.
The roller coaster season that the Magic seem to be on looks to be in another uptick with Head Coach Stan Van Gundys troops posting wins in six of their last nine games (5-3 ATS). Dwight Howard and his mates will take to the hardwood tonight off a solid home win and cover against Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves their last time out. The win was their second in a row which has Orlando in a position to rattle off its fourth 3+ win streak of the season with a victory this evening. Since giving up 103 points to the Wizards back on February 1st, the Magic have only conceded 100 or more points to an opponent once in their last seven games; it occurred in a 107-102 overtime defeat to the Clippers. With Orlandos defense allowing just under 92.0 PPG during that stretch, points should be hard to come by here with the Sixers allowing the second fewest points overall in the league (86.8 PPG). The Magic have won 10 of their 16 home games on the year but only covered seven of those games.
The first meeting between these teams saw the Sixers win an ugly 74-69 affair that saw them come up just short of covering the closing 7.5-point spread; the under cashed with ease and has now come in each of the L/5 times these teams faced one another regardless of venue. The win snapped the Sixers three-game losing streak to the Magic, and allowed the underdog to come out on top for the fourth time in the L/5 meetings. Philly has gone a dominating 15-6 ATS its L/21 against Eastern Conference foes, but Orlando has covered seven of its L/10 versus +.600 road teams.
WUNDERDOG
Richmond at St. Louis
Pick: Richmond +14
The Richmond Spiders made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament a year ago, but have suffered heavy losses entering this season. They have struggled to the .500 mark so far on the season, but have remained competitive with just three losses on the season, enough to keep them from covering the huge number placed against them here. St. Louis has had a remarkable year having already reached the 20 win plateau and will be NCAA Tournament bound. The Spiders have had a lot of bite in the role of a dog for quite some time entering this one at 45-22-2 ATS as a dog in their last 69 as well as 34-16-2 ATS as a dog vs. a team over .600. The Billikens have been a bit soft after a cover, at just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Play on Richmond.
Sharky Sports
Detroit -3
Detroit seems to finally be playing up to their potential as of late and they are at their peak. On a current three game winning streak, I think the trend will continue tonight and they will take care of business on the road against an offensively challenged Wright State team. Lead by senior Chase Simon and the coach’s son Ray McCallum, Detroit is a very versatile and athletic team that relies on getting up and down the court in a hurry. This style of play directly contrasts with Wright State, who really tends to drag possessions out and attempts to play low possession games really relying on their defense to keep them in games. The way Detroit’s offense has been surging recently, Wright State will have their hands full defensively. Furthermore, I think that once Wright State gets down early, they will not have nearly enough offensive firepower to fight back and keep it close, unless their three point shooting is really on and Detroit is really off. These two teams met earlier in the year at Detroit, and Detroit enjoyed a convincing 16 point win. In this game, Detroit forced Wright State’s poor offense into 18 turnovers and had relatively few problems on offense themselves as they shot 50% from the field and 45% from downtown (which indicates that I think they will execute efficiently on the offensive end again tonight). Furthermore, Detroit has demonstrated, especially as of late, that they are resilient. They are fresh off a great second-half comeback win against Green Bay where they were down as much as 12 points. I think this team’s ability to come back from large deficits and find a way to win is an added luxury. Lastly, Wright State is coming off its best game of the season from an offensive standpoint, shooting an extraordinary 70% from downtown and 57% overall from the field. This has a chance to be a prime let-down spot against an extremely tough opponent. Overall, I think Detroit takes care of business and wins this by at least 8.
Jack Jones
Golden State Warriors -5
The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Portland Trail Blazers are in a funk, and things just got a lot worse for them as they lost their best player to injury in a 109-124 home loss to the Washington Wizards last night.
Portland is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. LaMarcus Aldridge went out early with a sprained ankle in their loss to the Wizards. He is their leading scorer (22.6 points per game) and rebounder (8.3). There's no question he will be missed, and the Blazers are going to be lost without him.
Golden State has picked up three straight impressive victories over Denver, Houston and Phoenix, all by 6 points or more. The Warriors have had the Blazers' number in recent history. They have won four straight in this series all by 7 points or more, and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
The Warriors are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 meetings with Portland overall, and the home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Blazers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Golden State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Bet the Warriors Wednesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Sacramento Kings +6½
The Knicks were fortunate to win in Toronto last night. They're last 2 wins have come by 2 and 3 points respectively to Minnesota and Toronto, and I expect them to be tested again by Sacramento.
The Kings are quietly playing some very good basketball. They are 4-5 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. 3 of their losses during this stretch have come by 3 points or fewer. In addition, the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Also, the Kings are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New York. We'll take the points.
Black Widow
1* Hawks/Suns OVER 187
This total has been set far too low tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns. I'll side with the value and back the OVER in this contest tonight in a game I'm expecting roughly 200 combined points. After playing a very good defense in the Lakers last night, the Hawks will be more than happy to be going up against this soft Phoenix defense Wednesday. Points will be very easy to come by for the Hawks tonight. Atlanta and Phoenix have combined for 189 or more points in 14 of their last 15 meetings. That trend alone shows you that this number has been set way off the mark. Take the OVER 187 points here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit South Carolina -3½
Georgia can't be trusted following its upset win at Mississippi State. In fact, the Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS off a road win over the last 2 seasons and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 following a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more. The Dawgs are just 3-7 in all games away from home this season, losing them by an average of 8.2 points. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit Denver Nuggets +7
The Nuggets are showing some decent value at this price. We're talking about a team that is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 road games, 21-5 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the Nuggets are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 in this series and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas. Lastly, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.
Larry Ness
Temple -1.5
Temple's 85-72 win over Xavier gave the Owls eight victories in a row, upping their record to 19-5 overall (8-2 in the A-10). The Owls visit Olean, New York tonight to take on St. Bonaventure, which comes in 13-9 overall (6-4 in the A-10) but 9-1 at home. St Bonaventure was a modest 16-15 last year but lost the 6-10 Harper (17.9-6.7) and the 6-9 Geriot (9.5-3.9) up front plus guard Anderson (16.6). The fact that this team is 13-9 is not bad. Conger (12.9-5.5), Wright (7.4-3.0-2.9) and Kloof (5.2) start in the backcourt with the 6-9 Nicholson (15.6-7.8) and the 6-8 Cook (7.6-5.0) starting up front. Mosley (7.1) is an Austin Peay transfer and is the top reserve in the backcourt with 6-5 freshman Johnson (7.0) playing some small forward. The Owls are among the A-10's best in a number of offensive categories, averaging 75.4 PPG on a league-best 47.2 percent shooting. A trio of guards lead the way for Temple in Moore (18.7-4.0-3.2), Wyatt (16.7-3.3-3.3) and Fernandez (11.0-3.8 APG). The frontcourt has survived the loss of the 6-11 Eric (he missed two months), as he's back and has averaged 7.7 PPG and 7.8 RPG in his 11 games. The 6-6 Hollis-Jefferson (8.7-6.7) and the 6-9 Lee (5.6-6.3) did yeoman's work when Eric was out and now offer solid support. I noted the Bonnies are 9-1 at home but the fact remains that Temple 'owns' St Bonaventure, winning 14 in a row SU (11-3 ATS). Stick with 'history' in this one, especially at this price range.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Eastern Kentucky/ Tennessee Tech Under 135: Both of these teams prefer a slower paced game as Tenn Tech has averaged just 53.6 shots per game (222nd), while EKU averages just 52.1 spg (280th). Tennessee Tech home game have been somewhat high scoring (147.6 ppg) and they have put up 75 ppg at home, but not due to the pace as they have hoisted up just 53.2 shots per game. The do shoot very well, but may get as many shot attempts as EKU will really look to slow the game.Despite their overall shooting % of 45.7%, Tech comes in struggling non offense right now as they have scored just 55 ppg on 34.2% shooting in their last 2 games. The Colonels have been average on defense, allowing 67.1 ppg overall and 68.3 ppg on the road, but they should be able to hold down the struggling Golden Eagles in this one, by playing good defense and by limiting their possessions by working the shot clock on offense. EKU is not a great scoring or shooting team so they have to slow the game down in hopes of keeping it close vs teams that have much more firepower than them. EKU scores just 62.4 ppg on 41.8% shooting on the road, but even vs a bad defense I expect them to talk as much time off the clock as they can. Only chance they have at winning this one. Neither team likes to run and that should translate into a low scoring game in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Providence +10 over CINCINNATI: The Friars come in struggling as they have won just 1 of their last 7 games, but they have still played well, losing by DD in just 1 of their last 5 losses and that was by just 12 points at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati has come on to have a nice season so far, at 17-8 and they are 7-5 in the Big East, but just 3-2 in Big East home games, with 1 win coming by DD. The Bearcats are just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 home games and just 1-4 ATS in their Big East home games this year. Despite their 1-4 mark in their last 5 games the Friars have been out scored by just 0.8 ppg, while Cincinnati comes in at 2-3 in their last 5 and have been outscored by just 0.2 ppg. These teams have been involved in some close games this year, while the series shows that 6 of the 7 meetings between the two have been decided by 9 or less and the on that wasn't decided by 9 or less was a 12 point OT win by Cincinnati last February. Recent play and history shows that this one will be close and I agree. Bearcats by no more than 5 here.
St Peter's/ Fairfield Under 120.5: Just like the big one above, pace will play a huge role in this one. Fairfield checks in at 267th in shots per game at 52.6 spg overall, while in their last 3 they have shot the ball just 49.7 times per game. St Peters comes in averaging 53.8 spg overall (221st), while in their last 3 games they have put up just 48 spg. Fairfield has been playing some excellent defense of late as they have allowed just 56.6 ppg on 34.1 % shooting and that's pretty awesome considering that St Peters have has averaged just 53.9 ppg in their last 7 games and just 58 ppg within the MAAC on the year. Suffice it to say St Peter's is probably good for about 50 or 51 in this one. Fairfield has averaged 67.2 ppg in conference play and they have average 67.5 ppg at home. St Peter's did allow 85 points in their last game (Manhattan), but in their previous 4 games they allowed just 63.5 ppg,so this is a team that is improving on defense. Both teams will walk the ball up the court, which will eat a lot of clock, while we have just one team on the court that can score. Im say we see a game of no more than 115.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Missouri Under 143: Google News Play. In the first meeting the teams combined for 151 points, thanks mainly to the 79 points put up by a very average OSU squad. That has not sit well with the Tigers and you can bet they will bring the defensive intensity to this one. Since that loss to the Cowboys, the Tigers have gone 5-0 and have allowed just 62.4 ppg in the process. since that game Missouri games have averaged just 131.8 ppg, while OSU games have averaged just 137.4 ppg over the same stretch. Missouri home games overall have averaged 142.6 ppg, but their conference home games have averaged just 133.5 ppg. On the other side we see that OSU road games have averaged 138 ppg overall, while their Big 12 road games have averaged 140.7 ppg. This game will be all about defensive intensity and while I do expect about 75 from Missouri I can't see or expect more than 61 or 62 form the Cowboys in this one. That still gives us a little buffer, just in case Missouri hangs 80 on them here. I expect this one in the low 130's. KEY TRENDS--- OKLAHOMA ST is 21-10 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 3 seasons, while Frank Haith is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in all games he has coached since 1997.
Samford +17.5 over DAVIDSON: Davidson has been tough at home this year as they are 11-1 there and have outscored their opponents by 17.1 ppg in the process, while in the SoCon they have gone 7-1 at home and have win every game by 18+ points. So what would make me think that Samford can cover this one? Well a couple of things. Samford is just 10-15 overall, but 7-7 in the SoCon and they have dealt Davidson one of their two conference losses on the year. Next we note that Samford's biggest conference loss on the year was by 16 points, while their biggest conference road loss is by just 11 points, while they have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in SoCon road games. Next we see that the last 4 in this series has been decided by 13 points or less and finally we note that Davidson has a bracketbuster game with Wichita State on deck, so a look-a-head could be in order. No doubt in the world that Davidson is the better team here, but this is just too many points vs a conference opponent that has already beaten them on the year and has rarely been blown out this year. I look for about a 10 point Davidson win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Richmond +14.5 over ST LOUIS: Richmond has actually won the last 2 SU in this series, while 6 of the 7 in the series has been decided by 13 or less. St Louis is having a fine season, but coming off games vs Dayton, St Joes and LaSalle they may be a bit flat for this one. Look for the Spiders to keep it close. RICHMOND is 14-5 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, while SAINT LOUIS is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls since 1997.
New Mexico -1 over SAN DIEGO STATE: The Lobos have been on a tear of late as they have won 5 in a row and have held those opponents to just 47 ppg. the Aztecs have averaged 70.1 ppg on the year, but are struggling to score of late as they have averaged just 62.1 ppg in their last 6 games. SDSU has been awesome at home (15-1), but tonight the Lobo's, behind their defense should walk away with a huge road win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
UConn/ Depaul Under 147.5: Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival against opponent off a road loss. This play is 32-8 the last 5 seasons.
Iona -8.5 Over RIDER: IONA is 9-2 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons, while RIDER is 13-30 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON -9.5 over Detroit: Gonna come right back and go against the Pistons again. Detroit played last night and had a big 4th quarter to cover vs the Spurs, while Boston was sitting at home resting for 2 days. Detroit is a team that struggles mightily on the road, where they have gone just 2-12 and have been outscored by 12.3 ppg in those games. When this team losses on the road it has been bad as they have 9 road losses of 10 or more and have been outscored by 16.4 ppg in their road losses this year. Oh yeah 4 of their last 5 road losses have been by 20 points or more. On the road this is a bad team and it won't get much better tonight vs a Boston team that is playing better of late. Boston has won 7 of their last 10 games, which included a home win over the Bulls in their last game. The Celtics do have 3 DD home wins in their last 5 home wins. Boston allows just 82.7 ppg at home while Detroit has scored just 84.1 ppg on the road. Boston average 89.5 ppg at home, but has picked it up a bit more of late as they have averaged 94.1 ppg in their last 6 games, while Detroit comes in allowing 96.4 ppg on the road this year. The Celtics are healthy now, they have had two days off, while Detroit is a HORRIBLE road team and they played last night. I smell a rout here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
New Orleans/ Milwaukee Over 185.5: This Hornets team has been dealing with injuries all year and it has really hurt their offense, as they have averaged 87.1 ppg overall and 88.3 ppg on the road, but I feel their offense gets going a bit tonight vs a Milwaukee team that has struggled at the defensive end of the floor. The Bucks come in allowing 107.3 ppg in their last 6 games, while at home this year they have allowed 98.1 ppg, including allowing 108.3 ppg in their last 4 at home. On offense Milwaukee has been solid as they have averaged 95.5 ppg overall, 99.1 ppg at home and 102.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The Hornets haven't been bad on defense and they have allowed 92.9 ppg overall and 94.6 ppg on the road But I believe that Milwaukee can crack both those numbers with ease, especially with the way they have been scoring of late. Milwaukee home games have average 197.2 ppg, including an average of 199.1 ppg in their last 7 at home. Great offense from the Bucks, coupled with bad defense from them as well will have this game hitting 195+ points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points if the home team allowed 105 points or more in their last game and are playing against an opponent that scored 90 points or less 3 straight games. This play is 38-14 since 1996.
MINNESOTA -10.5 over Charlotte: (Added) What's the best way to stop a 4 game slide? That's easy, just take on the Charlotte Bobcats. What makes it even easier is the fact that the Bobcats are on the road for this one, where they have gone just 1-14 on the year and have been outscored by 16.8 ppg (I thought Detroit was bad on the road). Overall Charlotte seems to be getting worse as they have been outscored by 22.6 ppg in their last 7 games overall and they have been outscored by 21.1 ppg in their last 6 away from home. This just may be the worst team in the history of the league. Minnesota averages a solid 95.2 ppg and should have a field day vs a Bobcat team that allows 102.1 ppg on 48.3% shooting, while Minnesota's leaky defense should have no problems stooping a Bobcats attack that has averaged just 85.3 ppg on 41,4% shooting on the road, while in their last 5 games overall they have averaged 82.4 ppg on 39.6% shooting, plus we note that they have scored 75 points or less in 5 of their last 10 games. Minnesota needs a big easy win to get some confidence and get back on track and what better way to get it than vs the hapless Bobcats here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma City -3.5 over HOUSTON: Both teams played last night so no advantage there, but Houston is off a 6 game road trip and most times teams don't fare well in their first home game off a long trip. The Thunder are playing very well and have averaged 108.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while Houston has put up just 95.6 ppg over the same stretch. Just a bad spot for Houston here as the Thunder takes this one easily.
Denver/ Dallas Over 198: (Added) DENVER is 22-10 OVER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons, while DALLAS is 23-12 OVER after 4 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta/ Phoenix Over 186: Phoenix games have picked up the pace of late as 195.6 ppg have been scored in their last 5 games, while their home games have averaged 190.6 ppg on the year. With the Sun's scoring being up of late (96.4 ppg in their last 5) and they defense looking like that of old (99.1 ppg in their last 5), i expect both teams to crack at least 93 points in this one.