Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, February 16,2011

Marc Lawrence

South Carolina at Tennessee
Prediction: South Carolina

Its been said that elephants own the distinction of having some of the best memories in the animal kingdom but we think another species, a certain breed of barnyard fowl from central South Carolina, will exhibit their own powers of recall this evening. That’s because the Gamecocks were slapped around in both of last year’s games versus the Vols and those two defeats denied SC a winning season, something they’re sure to remember. Our database is in agreement, pointing to the Gamecocks’ 8-4 ATS effort as avenging dogs in this series and their 16-7 ATS mark if Tennessee’s win percentage is less than .722 – including 9-3 ATS as underdogs in that role. Thanks to the suspension of UT head coach Bruce Pearl and some wildly inconsistent play, the Vols have been money-burners at home this season, going 4-7 ATS at press time. They’ve had even less success against not-so-stellar competition at Thompson-Boling Arena, posting a putrid 2-7 ATS record versus foes with a win percentage of less than .800. Add the fact that Tennessee suits up here off a draining double-revenger against the Florida Gators and this one has ambush written all over it. We recommend a 1-unit play on South Carolina.

Terron Chapman

Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Washington Wizards +11

Fresh off their first road win of the season, another question still remains for the Washington Wizards…Can they make it two in a row on the road? The Washington Wizards will look to take the momentum gained from Sunday’s, 115-100 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers with them to Orlando as they wrap up their season series with the Orlando Magic at Amway Center.

As some of the Wizards players put it “Christmas” finally came as the Wizards won for the first time in 26 road contests this season. Washington shot 54% from the floor and scored 68 first half points in the much needed victory against the lowly Cavs. Nick Young led all scorers with 31 points on 14-of-21 from the field while John Wall recorded his 18th double-double of the season with 19 points and 14 assists.

More importantly, however, may have been the return of Josh Howard, who missed 19 games after he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Howard got the start and responded by scoring 16 points with five rebounds and two assists in just 25 minutes. He has played a total of 13 games for the Wizards (15-38) but they are 4-1 when he is in the starting lineup.

The Magic lead the season series, 3-0. Orlando has won 13 of the last 16 meetings with Washington. In their last meeting, Dwight Howard led six Magic players in double figures with 22 points and 15 rebounds, as Orlando routed Washington, 110-92, at Verizon Center Feb. 4.

History will suggest Wednesday’s match-up is a mismatch in more ways than one. The marketplace suggest the same with the Magic opening as an 11-point home favorite. However, current form gives us reason to believe the visitor will give the host all they can handle and then some Wednesday night. The Wizards will be motivated to avoid a season sweep at the hands of a division rival and we expect their confidence to be sky high after capturing a taste of victory on the highway. Look for that momentum to carry over as a young, inspired Wizards team makes a game of it. Play on the Washington Wizards (+) the points for 1 unit.

Jim Feist

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -11

Sacramento is not a good road team and this is a terrible situational spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Dallas is rested and no one has been hotter, on a 7-2 ATS run in their last 9 games overall. Dallas has had a commitment to defense this season and they allow 95.3 ppg, seventh best in the NBA, second best in the West. The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. the NBA Pacific and 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Dallas against Sacramento. Play the Mavericks!

Sam Martin

Wisconsin at Purdue
Prediction: Purdue

We would have used Purdue as a premium selection here if not for the big showdown with Ohio State looming this weekend for the Boilermakers. But Wisconsin is in a big play-against spot themselves as they have to deal with the letdown after handing previously unbeaten Ohio State their first loss of the season last weekend. And this Purdue team is underrated here at home, where they are a perfect 13-0 straight up. Not a big number for Purdue to cover here, and we think they pull away later for the win and cover.

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

Los Angeles (20-35) comes off a 102-78 loss at Milwaukee on Monday but they have covered 5 of their last 7 games coming off a double-digit loss. Minnesota (13-42) will likely still be without Michael Beasley and his 19.9 PPG who is nursing an ankle injury. The Timberwolves come off a 95-81 loss to Portland on Monday but they have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And Minnesota has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games at home. Take the Clippers on Wednesday.

Charlie Scott

Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Play: Louisville +1

Louisville comes into this game with revenge having lost to Cincinnati in the Big East Tournament last Season. Both teams play good defense and with the line basically at Pick'em, I have to feel Louisville's transition game will be the difference. Cincinnati has to work for every basket,every possession. While Louisville will get some easy baskets in the TRANSITION FAST BREAK. Louisville Scores more points & WINS !

BIG AL

New Mexico @ San Diego State
PICK: New Mexico +10.5

San Diego St. Earlier this season, Steve Fisher's Aztecs went into New Mexico and handed the Lobos an 87-77 defeat at "The Pit" as a 1-point road favorite. Now, for the re-match, San Diego St has been installed as a 10.5-point home favorite, and we'll grab the large number of points with Steve Alford's Lobos. For technical support, consider that, since 1991, double-digit road dogs, playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss earlier in the season, are 186-139 ATS when matched up against a conference foe off back to back wins, if our road team is off a loss. The Aztecs come into this game off 5 straight wins, while New Mexico lost 68-62 at Colorado State last Saturday. Take the points with the Lobos.

Brent Brooks

Youngstown St. +11

Since defeating Butler 62-60 at home on February 3rd, the Penguins have lost three straight to Horizon contenders (Valpo, Wright State, and Cleveland State) and have covered the 2 of 3 - narrowly missing the other. Because of their weak record, the Penguins are undervalued right now but are actually contending in games where they should be over matched on paper. That's the sort of value we are looking for.

Lithuanian senior Vytas Sulskis is winding down and unheralded by respectable career at YSU. 6'7 sophomore forward Damian Eargle has had some bright moments over the last few games for the Penguins as well including 22 points against the Vikings in their last outing.

As for Detroit, they are capable of putting up 75-80 points in this one but their defense isn't stellar. Over the course of the last few weeks, they have few dominating performances. Their home game against the Flames barely exceeded the points we are getting on the Penguins - other that, the Titans have seen mostly single digit victories or losses.

Yes, YSU was awful early in the year but this is the part of the season where we have to jump on teams playing well regardless of their record. Grab the Penguins and the points for a 1* Freebie.

Michigan +9.5

Winners of five of their last six straight up, Michigan has catapulted from also-ran to contender in the Big 10. They are approaching bubble status and can further their cause greatly with another win in this road game. If this game was earlier on the schedule, we might have seen a line in the 12-14 range. Here, oddsmakers are asking if this game will be a double digit win for Illinois.

Illinois relies on their shooting and Michigan has a way (at least of late) of frustrating the outside shooters. Here are some recent opponents performances from deep:

Michigan State: 5-19
Iowa: 5-13
Ohio State: 5-15
Penn State: 10-28
Northwestern: 11-25
Indiana 4-16

Overall, that's 40 for 116 (34.48%). Clearly not the greatest % in the country for 3P defense but respectable and good enough to for us to believe they can slow down McCamey and Paul just enough to keep this one from getting out of hand.

We have every reason to believe that Michigan will be much improved next year due to progress that Darius Morris has made this year. He's emerged as the goto guy and surrounded by players that take turns being the secondary scorer (Novak, Hardaway, Douglass, Morgan). Beilein has found a way to be competitive over the last few games with a traditional force on the block and in this game he'll be facing a team that lacks that as well.

Its shooters versus scrappers and with this much on the line for both teams, we take the points here and project a game much more to Michigan's liking in terms of tempo.

JR O'Donnell

Houston Rockets -4

We will fire a nice members winner here on Houston Rockets - the lead tonight vs the 26-29 Phila Sixers. These Rick Adelmen lead 26-30 Rockets are playing well @ home!! The #'s are strong here for the Rockets to hang up a W on the Doug Collins lead Sixers as the Sixers are 1-17 when they allow the opponent to hang up 100 or more!! Ouch........ The Rockets are humming on the Offensive end! How about 109 points the last 4 ballgames & 121 vs the Nuggets.

The Sixers have done well vs these Rockets , owners of a 5-1 the last 6 series mark. The power ratings here check in @ - 8.1 points on this ball game.The Rockets are 13-6 over all at home. We follow these home town Sixers super close and they WERE a cover machine earlier in the season. Believe me guys , they have holes. The Rockets check in @ 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Sixers will get some "PUBLIC" love here tonight... WE ARE NOT BUYING IT..... Rockets by 7 to 9..........

Matt Rivers

Toronto Raptors +9

Sure Toronto is one of the weaker teams in the entire NBA and sure Miami is light years the superior squad on the court today. But this is not a very good spot for the Heat and to ask them to play for a second straight day, travel up north of the border and then win going away by double digits just seems too extreme for me.

The 15-40 Raptors certainly can’t compete in an apples-to-apples type of a scenario. If things were equal than I understand this number as LeBron, Wade and Bosh are just way too good as the 39-15 or whatever record would indicate. But Erik Spoelstra’s boys just played in Indiana last night and are in a third game in four-day scenario which included a rough one in Boston over the weekend.

The Raptors have been off since the Sunday home win against the Clippers and should be perfectly rested. A team doesn’t want too many days off but a few is never bad and with Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, Demar Derozan and at least some talent, not a ton, but some, I will grab this home dog against a potentially dog tired Heat team and take my chances.

We saw the Lakers implode in a similarly difficult situation at Charlotte on Monday night and this may not be a carbon copy but it could be in that realm.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

Both teams played last night with the Warriors winning and the Jazz losing. However, Golden State is 2-11 ATS this season when off back to back ATS wins and playing without rest in Utah is a recipe for disaster. Utah is desperate to end the first half of the season with a win as they are 0-2 SU/ATS since Jerry Sloan resigned. Lay the points.

Play on: Utah

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +1

The Clippers are on a horrible run and this extended roadtrip is not helping matters. Los Angeles has lost three straight games and seven of its last eight and this game makes it eight straight games played on the road. Included in this skid have been losses to some very solid teams but also some weak opposition including Cleveland, which snapped the 26-game losing streak, and Toronto, which has the second worse record in the Eastern Conference. Minnesota lost to Portland for the 16th straight time on Monday and the Timberwolves could use a victory heading into the break. They are 4-17 over their last 21 games but the schedule has had a lot to do with that as of those 21 games, 14 have come against teams in a playoff spot or right on the cusp of one. In those seven games against non-playoff contenders, Minnesota is 3-4 so when playing on its own level, it has fared like it should and that is being competitive in those games. Two of those four losses came on the road while the two losses at home came by a combined seven points, with one of those coming in overtime. On the season, the Timberwolves are 9-18 at home which is certainly nothing to jump up and down about but considering the Clippers are just 4-21 on the road and they are favored, it gives us some excellent value. Minnesota will be without Michael Beasley again which no doubt hurts but the home team still has the overall edge. The Clippers have been road favorites three times this season and are 0-2-1 ATS and 1-2 straight up. The two losses have been on this trip while the push was in Sacramento back in December. Going back even further, Los Angeles is 0-5-1 ATAS in its last six games as a road favorite while going just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a losing home record. the home team has won four straight and six of the last seven in this series and a win here also means the cover. 3* Minnesota Timberwolves

Craig Trapp

Michigan vs. Illinois
Play: Michigan +9.5

Big Blue is playing great basketball as of late winning 5 of last 6 straight up and ATS. On the other side ILL have been struggling losing 3 of last 6 both straight up and ATS. McCamey was supposed to become 1st team all league type PG but his inconsistency has really cost this ILL team. MICH is a really shooting the ball well in last 6 shooting a tick over 50% which has allowed them to upset two road teams at PSU and at MSU. Tonight not sure they can pull upset but definitely will cover this number.

Scott Spreitzer

Michigan @ Illinois
Pick: Michigan +9.5

Bruce Weber has not exactly won the hearts of Illini fans, producing a disappointing run since his arrival in Champaign. This season may be the most disappointing of them all, and Weber very well could be on the proverbial hot seat. Illinois was looking for their best season under Weber heading into this season. The team returned all five starters and seven of their top eight scorers, and they began the season ranked 13th in the nation. Things were looking up after a 10-1 start with the only loss coming by just six points to an excellent Texas team. But the Illini are just 6-8 SU since the big start, including losses to Illinois-Chicago, Indiana, and Northwestern, three teams Weber's experienced and talented team should not lose to no matter where the games were played. They're 3-6 SU in their last nine games and Demetri McCamey's numbers have fallen off a cliff. I doubt very much that the struggling Illini are going to find what it takes to remain focused for an entire 40-minutes to cover the hefty number that the linesmaker has installed. Michigan has been taking care of business winning three straight and five of six. Six players average between 6 ppg and 15.4 ppg and right now, with the way McCamey is struggling, Michigan's Darius Morris is likely to be the best guard on the court. The Illini continue their disappointing season with another spread loss. I'm taking the points with Michigan.