Tom Stryker
South Carolina @ Tennessee
PICK: Tennessee -12
Off three brutal SEC losses to Alabama, No. 18 Kentucky and No. 17 Florida, Tennessee will easily get back on the winning track tonight when it takes a step down in class against South Carolina. The Gamecocks are in a bit of a tailspin right now posting a dismal 6-9 SU and 4-10 ATS record in their last 15 games and they enter off an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS run compliments of the Commodores, Gators and Dawgs!
Historically speaking, this is a great spot for the Vols. UT has won seven straight in this series against the Cocks (5-2 ATS) and eight of their last 10 straight up under the direction of head coach Bruce Pearl. Equally impressive, as a conference host, the Vols sport a profitable 57-19 SU and 45-30-1 ATS mark in their last 76 games including a juicy 32-18-1 ATS in this role provided Tennessee does not enter off a blowout loss of 10 points or more.
One thing South Carolina has failed to do is play well on the road when battling an opponent that is struggling a bit. According to my college basketball database, the Gamecocks are a weak 8-23 SU and 10-19-1 ATS as a guest facing a foe that enters off two or more straight up losses including a dismal 4-20 SU and 6-17-1 ATS in this set matched up against an SEC opponent. Overall, USC is just 6-16 SU and 8-14 ATS in its last 22 on foreign courts including a feeble 2-8 SU and ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss.
The Vols have played the toughest schedule in the nation this season. Those difficult battles will make life on the court easier for UT especially when they take a step down in class like they are tonight. Watch Coach Pearl's kids post a comfortable win and cover here. Take Tennessee.
Tom Freese
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Miami Heat -9
Toronto is 15-40 straight up this year. The Raptors are 17-35-1 ATS their last 53 games as home underdogs. Toronto is 18-38-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games overall. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS their last 9 games as an underdog. Miami is 40-15 straight up this year. The Heat are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games overall and they are 17-5 ATS their last 22 road games vs. a team with home win percentage of less than 40%
Ray Monohan
Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -1
Tonight at the Fifth Third Arena, in Cincinnati, Ohio we get the Cardinals vs. Bearcats in Big East action. Looking to keep their March Madness dreams a reality the Bearcats NEED a W at home tonight in the worst way. Home has been good to the stingy Cinci D as well. The Bearcats only give up 58 PPG, that number includes 56.4 PPG at home. I have a feeling the Bearcats lack of turnovers will be the difference in this one. The Cardinals lead the big east in steals, but the Bearcats don't give the ball up (2nd in the big east). A losing trend I'm really looking at to continue for this game includes Louisville being 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. Louisville took the only regular season matchup in 09-10, 68-60, but the Bearcats got their revenge in the Big East Tourny, defeating Cards in the 2nd round, 69-66. The Bearcats have four games against RPI Top-50 teams remaining, starting with the Cardinals.
Tony George
Oklahoma St +15
Nothing comes easy this time of year and while Okie state is a different animal on the road than in Stillwater they have enough in the tank to cover this number. Big huge favorties are go against right now if you look at recent results of the top teams in the NCAA now laying big numbers this time of the season. Look for a 7-9 point win here by Texas, 15 too many.
Rob Vinciletti
Loyola Chicago vs. Illinois Chicago
Play: Loyola Chicago -3
Loyola is 8-2 vs losing teams and has won and covered every times the past 3 years as a road favorite of 3 or less. They have won 11 of 15 games vs teams who score 65 or less points per game and are taking on an Illinois Chicago team that is 2-11 vs winning teams and 3-8 straight up and ats after scoring 60 or less points. They have lost 10 of 12 with revenge and are 2-13 in conference good for last place. In the battle of 2 windy city team take Illinois Chicago.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -11
The All-Star break can't get here fast enough for this Kings team, which is dealing with tension between players and a foot injury to star guard Tyreke Evans. The Kings were crushed by 30 at Oklahoma City last night, and this one could get ugly as well. The Kings have played the Mavs tough in two prior meetings this season, losing by just two points in each. However, I expect the rested Mavs to flex their muscles this evening. The Mavericks have averaged 114.6 points on 51.7 percent shooting during a 13-game home winning streak over Sacramento that spans nearly 8 years. While many teams are motivated following such embarrassing defeats, the Kings haven't been one of them lately. In fact, they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Kings are just 4-13-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Dallas, and I expect their struggles in the Big "D" to continue. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Utah Jazz -4.5
Reasons why Utah will cover:
1) Utah is 28-14 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons, and are 17-6 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
2) Utah is also 25-14 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
3) Golden State is just 6-18 on the road this season, and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO -½ +101 over Toronto
Don’t look now but the Sabres are just two points out of a playoff spot and when they play Toronto they’re the Leafs daddy. Toronto never wins here and rarely do they beat the Sabres anywhere. The Leafs have lost the last seven trips to Buffalo and overall they’ve lost 13 of the last 14 contests vs this host. Buffalo is on a roll. They’ve picked up points in five straight (4 wins and 1 OT loss) and have now won eight of 11. They’ll play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but winning takes a far less toll in these situations than losing. The Leafs are coming off an unlikely win in Boston but they usually play the Bruins tough and rarely play well against the Sabres. Tonight the Leafs will play in front of J.S. Giguere and he’s just not that reliable. Giguere has a save percentage of just .898 and anytime we can play the Sabres to beat the Leafs in regulation without having to lay anything you can pencil us in, as this has been a hugely profitable situation. Play: Buffalo -½ +101 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +120 over NEW JERSEY
This could be the pivotal game in the Canes season and thus, they figure to come out with a lot of determination and intensity. The Canes are hearing loud footsteps, as they cling to that final playoff spot, just two points ahead of Buffalo and the Sabres have two games in hand. What we know for sure is that the Canes have a big edge in net with Cam Ward over Johan Hedberg. On paper, the Canes have lost three of their last four but in reality, they’ve picked up points in all of those games with the exception of a 2-1 loss to the Flyers. Fact is, the Canes could be on a five-game winning streak with a couple of OT wins instead of losses. New Jersey has been off since Friday and that’s not beneficial when a team is hot. The Devils are winning a lot of games these days but three of their last five have gone into OT and they’re scoring has tailed off badly. The Devils are coming off back-to-back 2-1 wins and with five days off, shaky goaltending and scoring down, they’re not to be trusted laying juice in this spot. Play: Carolina +120 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +164 over CHICAGO
Win or lose the Wild offer up a ton of value here and because of said value, this wager should not be missed. For one, the Wild are playing great hockey right now and better than they’ve played all year long. They’ve won six of their last eight with only losses over that span coming at Phoenix, 1-0 and 4-1 last night against the Canucks. Pay no attention to last night’s final score, as the Wild dominated that game for three periods and deserved a better fate. Now they’ll catch Chicago returning home from a grueling six-game trip that began in Columbus on Feb 1 and subsequently took them to Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Dallas and ended Saturday night in Phoenix. That is a tough trip and it sure doesn’t help that they’ve been off since Saturday. The Blackhawks have been fighting it all season long and could absolutely be caught very flat-footed here. Even if Chicago is sharp, which is highly unlikely, they’re still in tough. Big overlay. Play Minnesota +164 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Duquesne - over Massachusetts
Massachusetts beat Duquesne in overtime last season in Pittsburgh and this will be a key revenge game for the Dukes at a critical junction of the season coming off back-to-back losses. The Dukes started the Atlantic-10 season 8-0 but then slipped at St. Bonaventure and was blasted at home by conference leader Xavier on Sunday. This is a critical game to right the ship and while laying a lot of points on the road is not often advisable this situation sets up nicely. Massachusetts has lost three straight games against marginal competition and the Minutemen are in the midst of a tough season. Five times Massachusetts has lost at home this season and Duquesne is 6-3 on the road this year. The Dukes have been one of the better spread teams in the nation at 12-4-1 for the year and this is a team that can put big numbers with a per-game scoring average of nearly 79 points. Massachusetts is banged up with two key players questionable for this game and the road team has actually covered in seven of the last eight meetings.
EZWINNERS
New Jersey Nets +11.5
The Nets have been very profitable this season as a double digit underdog and they are facing a Celtics team that is ravaged with injures and is less than 100% right now. The Nets are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against Boston in which they have been a double digit underdog and they are 8-4 against the spread as a double digit underdog this season. Centers Semih Erden (personal), Shaquille O’Neal (achilles) and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) are all out for of the lineup for this game and Celtics Guard Marquis Daniels (neck) remains sidelined and guard Delonte West (wrist) tweaked his hand in practice and might not be avaliable as well. New Jersey might not get Boston's best effort tonight as they are coming off of a big win against the Heat and then head out for a Western road trip after this game and the Celtics are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite. Take the points.
Brad Diamond
Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -11
Tough road game for the Heat going on the road in mid-week up in Canada, but like our chances with the talented visitor. Former Raptors forward Chris Bosh has been coming on strong for the Heat, so he should flourish when returning to his former home court. The last time these two met Miami (-15) won, surviving 109-100, but the Heat were limited because of many injuries to their starting five. Overall, can’t trust Toronto in current state considering their 2-5 ATS record versus the Heat. Further, the Raptors are 2-8 ATS overall and 1-8 ATS as an UNDERDOG.
Jack Jones
Denver Nuggets +1.5
Off back-to-back losses, I expect the Denver Nuggets to bounce back Wednesday against an overmatched Milwaukee Bucks team. Denver is finally fully healthy and are actually a dangerous team in the Western Conference at full strength. Milwaukee has a long list of injuries, with six players listed on the injury report. Drew Gooden and Michael Redd remain out, while key contributers in Ersan Ilyasova, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette are all listed as questionable tonight with various ailments.
This play falls into a system that is 67-37 (64%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (DENVER) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games. The Nuggets are the highest-scoring team in the league at 107.8 PPG, whereas the Bucks are one of the lowest-scoring teams are 91.4 PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Denver is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central division foes, while the Bucks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against NBA Northwest division opponets. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.
Frank Jordan
Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -5
Utah has dropped three in a row but two are two Phoenix as they return home for a match up with Golden State. The Warriors are only 6-18 on the road while Utah is 17-12 at home. These two teams have played three times already this season with the home team winning each time. Look for that trend to continue as the Jazz snap their funk and bust out for a big game against Golden State. Play Utah
Ben Burns
Golden State @ Utah
PICK: Utah -5
This line has come down from its opener. I believe that provides us with solid value on the home team.
Both teams played last night. The fact that the Warriors won and the Jazz lost, may make the Jazz a little "hungrier" here. Note that the Warriors are an ugly 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off a double-digit victory.
These teams have faced each other three times this season. The home team won all three. Looking back further finds the Jazz at 27-3 SU the last 30 times that they hosted the Warriors. While Sloan isn't around anymore, they should continue that homecourt series domination here, covering the relatively small number along the way. Consider Utah.
Larry Ness
Louisville @ Cincinnati
PICK: Cincinnati -1.5
Louisville coach Rick Pitino won’t soon forget Louisville’s 69-66 loss to Cincinnati in Madison Square Garden during last year’s Big East Tourney. Pitino called it "the ugliest game" ever played at the arena. "They shot poorly and we gave up 28 offensive rebounds," Pitino said with a grimace. These schools have a rivalry that dates back to the Metro Conference and then C-USA before both wound up in the Big East. While Louisville may have revenge on its mind, it’s Cincy which needs this game WAY more. Both schools enter this game 19-6 overall but the Cardinals are 8-4 in Big East play and rank 16th in the latest polls while the Bearcats are just 4-6 since opening the season 15-0 and are just 6-6 in Big East play. Both teams own excellent backcourts, as Louisville has Knowles (15.1) back in the lineup along with Siva (10.5-5.3 APG), Kuric (10.0), Smith (9.6-4.5) and Marra (6.7). The Bearcats are led by Dixon (11.2), Kilpatrick (10.1), Wright (9.1-3.7 APG) and Davis (5.7) on the perimeter. The key to winning this game game may be determined inside. The 6-9 Gates (10.6-6.5) played just 13 minutes in Cincy’s 59-57 loss to St. John's on Sunday, including all of one minute in the second half. He's available against the Cardinals but head coach Cronin, who has already suspended Gates earlier this year for violating team rules, was not very specific regarding his playing status for tonight’s game. "I'm playing the guy that gives us the best chance to win," he said. "He really is struggling guarding their guys." The Bearcats are smaller at most positions on the floor, so Gates will be valuable. I’m betting Cronin, who has yet to lead the Bearcats to an NCAA tourney bid, will “get over it” and paly Gates. Cincinnati has kept its tournament hopes ‘alive’ by beating the teams in the bottom half of the Big East but could really use a win over the 16th-ranked Cardinals .Note that Louisville has lost at Villanova (by 14), lost at Providence (by five), won at UConn in two OTs by one, lost at Georgetown (by three) and lost at Notre Dame in OT by 10. The Bearcats opened this season 13-0 at home but enter this game off back-to-back home losses to West Va (66-55) and St John’s (59-57) and could really use a win here. Gates, the 6-6 Bishop (7.8-3.6) and the 6-11 Thomas (6.3-6.0) give Cincy an edge inside, where the 6-10 Jennings (9.6-5.5) is without the 6-10 Dieng (6.3-4.6) and the 6-8 Buckles (7.5-7.4) has just returned after a long absence and is nowhere near 100 percent. I’m sticking with the ‘desperate’ Bearcats.