Terron Chapman
Texas vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -2.5
Mizzou (18-7) hosts nationally-ranked Texas (20-5) in the Black Out Game, Wednesday night on ESPN2 . The game is officially a sellout and Tiger fans are encouraged to WEAR BLACK to the game as the Tigers go searching for their 34th home court win in the last 35 opportunities. The Longhorns had lost five of their last seven games prior to blasting Nebraska, 91-51 on Saturday. However, they’ll face an entirely different animal Wednesday night in Columbia.
Missouri has been very good against ranked foes at home under Mike Anderson and the Tigers have won three consecutive home games vs. Top 25 teams . In fact, Missouri is 4-2 vs. Top 25 teams at home dating back to a Jan. 12, 2008, win against #12 Texas (97-84). Missouri is looking for its third consecutive win against Texas for the first time since Norm Stewart was leading the Tigers. Missouri is #2 nationally in turnover margin at +7.1. With that great turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio (+1.2) the Tigers have taken 159 more shots then their opponents this year. With that great turnover percentage Missouri is forcing 20.4 turnovers a game and is averaging 24.0 points per game off of those turnovers. That statistic certainly helps to offset rebounding margin, an area the Longhorns have a significant advantage.
In a crazy stat that speaks to great ball-security, the Tigers already have 126 more steals this season than their opponents through 25 games. Mizzou will be eager to get back in the win column after a heartbreaking, 64-62 loss at Baylor. Missouri is one of the Big 12’s youngest teams this season and has 11-of-13 players in their first or second season playing for Mike Anderson. Missouri is getting more than half of its 79.8 points per game from the sophomore class. Youth always plays better at home and tonight should be no exception. Look for the young Tigers to feed off the home court while capturing their third straight against the Longhorns. Play on the Missouri Tigers for 1 unit.
Matt Fargo
Jacksonville State vs. Tennessee State
Play: Jacksonville State -1.5
This is a makeup game that was originally scheduled for February 2nd so both teams are playing this contest coming off games on Monday. Tennessee St. is coming off a huge win on Monday night against rival Tennessee Tech that went to double overtime. That revenge win not only serves as a letdown for the Tigers but they spent a lot of energy in that victory in coming from behind in the second half against the Golden Eagles. That was the second straight come-from-behind win for Tennessee St. who also rallied from a 15-point second half deficit against Austin Peay two days before on Saturday. The three straight wins all but assures the Tigers the eighth seed in the upcoming Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as a win against SE Missouri St. next Thursday will lock it up. The current three-game run is a season high and snapped a 1-11 conference streak to start the season and while playing with a lot of confidence, this is not a good spot for the Tigers. The Gamecocks are on a two-game losing streak and have lost four of five games heading into the stretch run. Jacksonville St. needs to win the final two games in conference play to even its record at 9-9 and try to get a hold of sixth place in the upcoming tournament. It has been an up and down season for the Gamecocks but one that has exceeded expectations as they were picked to finish last in the conference. Playing the top four teams in the OVC, the Gamecocks went 1-7 but against every other team, they have gone 6-2 and that included a 16-point home win over the Tigers in the first meeting this season. Yes that does set up a revenge situation for Tennessee St. but it has already won its last two games in avenging spots and I cannot see this below average squad making it three in a row. Jacksonville St. has significant advantages in some important categories, namely offensive efficiency, overall efficiency, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. On the season, the Gamecocks have a 1.15 ratio compared to 0.81 for the Tigers and the ratio margins are +0.06 and -0.09 respectively and while those variances are slim, they are important to us here. Jacksonville St. also has big situational edges. The Gamecocks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following two of more consecutive losses and they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 75 or more points in two or more straight games. As for a nationally tested situation, play on road teams that are averaging between 67 and 74 ppg going up against a team that is allowing between 74 and 78 ppg after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Jacksonville St. Gamecocks
Frank Jordan
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -11.5
Notre Dame is 17-9 this year but 6-7 in Big East play. Of late Notre Dame is struggling at the wrong time losing six of their last 9 games and are just 1-5 on the road. Louisville is coming off the big upset of Syracuse in Syracuse on Valentines day. That was a big win to set them in motion to get back into the tournament Louisville is 16-9 over all and 7-5 in the Big East as they look to finish strong and make some noise in the Big East Tournament. Look for Louisville who is at home to dominate and extend the home record to 14-3 on the year. Play Louisville
Tom Freese
Louisiana Tech at Utah St.
Prediction: Utah St.
Louisiana Tech is 20-5 overall and 8-3 in Conference Play. The Bulldogs are led in scoring by guard Kyle Gibson and his 21 points a game. Center Magnum Rolle scores 14.7 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. Jamel Guyton scores 11.8 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Deandre Brown scores 10.8 points a game. The Bulldogs score 78 points a game but they shoot just 69% from the foul line. The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 League games and they are 3-11 ATS on Wednesday. Utah St is 20-6 overall and 10-2 in Conference Play. Forward Tai Wesley scores 13.2 points and 6.5 rebounds a game. Guard Jared Quayle scores 12.1 points a game while shooting 43% from behind the arc. Forward Nate Bendall scores 10.6 points a game. Three other players score between 8.8 points and 7.2 points a game. The Aggies score 74 points a game. Utah St is 9-1 ATS their 10 league games and they are 5-0 ATS their 5 home games. PLAY ON UTAH ST -
Hollywood Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers (18-34) have been better executing on the offensive end of the court as of late as they are averaging 104.2 PPG with 48.3% shooting from the field over their last five games entering the All-Star break. The Pacers are 15-10 when they score at least 100 points this season. At home, they are almost playing .500 ball with their 12-14 record and they hold their opponents to under 44% shooting. Enter the San Antonio Spurs (30-21) who are a listless 11-11 away from home this season. This veteran club has certainly been known to phone-in some of their efforts. They finished the first half of the season with an impressive 111-92 win at Denver but the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games coming off a win. They have also failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against teams with a losing record. And returning from the long All-Star break does not bode well for the Spurs as they have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games coming off at least three days of rest. Tony Parker remains listed as questionable for this game as well given his injured hip. Expect an uninspired effort from San Antonio as the improving Pacers keep it close. Take Indiana.
LARRY NESS
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Dallas Mavericks -4
The Suns hosted the Mavs back on January 28 and won 112-106. They are 5-1 since with all five wins coming on the road (also 5-0 ATS in those road wins). Trade rumors are swirling that Stoudemire is headed for Cleveland but last night in Memphis he had 21 points and 10 rebounds while Steve Nash added 16 assists in a 109-95 win at Memphis. Stoudemire (21.2-8.6) and Nash (18.1-11.2 APG) lead the way for a very talented team which is somewhat of an enigma. Richardson (14.7-5.0), Hill (11.2-5.3), Frye (11.8-5.5) and Barbosa (10.6) all average in double figures but sixth-man Barbosa is out with a wrist injury and Frye has been replaced in the starting lineup by Lopez (7.5-4.2). Lopez was a flop as a rookie and did not play in any of the team's first 15 games. However, since January 18 he's averaged 12.8 PPG and 6.0 RPG as a starter. Dudley (8.4-3.6), Dragic (8.2) and Amundson (4.4-4.6) are a nice group of role players but this team still plays no defense, allowing 107.2 PPG (ranks 29th). I mentioned that Phoenix has won five straight on the road but one can't ignore the fact that just prior to that, the Suns had lost 12 of their previous 13 road games (opened the year 8-3 on the road!). While Phoenix is mulling trade offers, Dallas shipped Howard and Gooden (main guys in the deal) to Washington for Butler (16.9-6.7), Haywood (9.7-10.3) and Stevenson (non-factor). I believe this will be a good fit for the Mavs, although the team "let one slip away" last night at Oklahoma City. Butler joined Nowitzki (24.6-7.8), Marion (11.6-6.5), Kidd (9.3-5.1-9.2) and Dampier (7.1-8.5) in the staring lineup on Tuesday. Terry (17.0) remains the team's first player off the bench while Barea (8.4-3.3 APG) has proven to be a solid backup/complement to Kidd. Haywood has been healthy all season and I believe the Mavs have greatly improved themselves. Starting center Dampier dislocated the middle finger on his right hand late in the fourth quarter Tuesday and is expected to have surgery, leaving him out indefinitely. Haywood's addition now looms very large for the Mavs. Take the home team here, playing with some revenge from that late January loss at Phoenix (Suns won 4th quarter, 28-16).
Sam Martin
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks host Phoenix tonight, and the Suns players have to be wondering what?s going on with their roster as the trade deadline draws near. Amare Stoudemire has been the biggest name being thrown around, and there might even be a deal made prior to game time. Even if there isn?t, we still like the Mavericks to cover this small number tonight. Dallas got off to a hot start at the beginning of the year, but trailed off prior to the All-Star break. And they just made a trade of their own, which should rejuvenate this team. Look for a solid effort tonight out of the home side, and we look for a relatively easy Dallas victory. 5* Play on Dallas.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Heat/Nets UNDER 187.5
We have seen total scores of just 184 and 161 points the last two times these teams have faced off and I'm expecting another low-scoring game here tonight. The Under is 4-1 in the Nets' last 5 home games and 15-8-1 in all home games this season. Plus, the Nets are coming off a big win over Charlotte last night and they are 6-0 Under in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Under is 20-8-1 in the Heat's last 29 overall and 5-0-1 in their last 6 games when playing on 0 days rest. We'll take the Under for 1 Unit tonight.
Joseph D'Amico
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -6½
This is Toronto's first game back since All-Star break. The Raptor's are well-rested and healthy. They come into this game winning 8 of their L9 SU and going 6-2 ATS their L8. Toronto ranks at #4 in the NBA on offense, averaging 104.6 PPG and shooting 47.7% FG's. Forward Chris Bosh is a one man wrecking crew, lighting up foes for over 24.4 PPG. They face a Memphis squad that has lost 5 in a row both SU and ATS, including a 109-95 pelting last night against Phoenix. Memphis has failed to cover their L3 road games. The home team in this series is 4-0 ATS their L4 meetings. The Grizzlie's are 3-7 ATS their L10 games played on 0 days rest, 10-21 ATS their L31 as a road 'dog of 5-10.5 points, and 0-4 ATS their L4 following a ATS loss. The Raptor's are 6-0 ATS their L6 vs. the Western Conference, 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. the NBA South West, and 5-1 ATS their L6 at home. Toronto covers.
JR O'Donnell
West Virginia vs. Providence
Play: West Virginia -6½
Will be backing the Focused Mountaineers who have lost 2 straight and are in need of a statement win . Our camp has the boys from West Virginia to give an all out best effort tonight. The Mountaineers are going to feast on Providence who are playing some real bad hoop right now!!! How about losers of five straight. The Friars will have trouble beating this Big East team who is in a real nasty mood tonight . They got pounded by Cuse 85-68 !! Defense covers ats spreads as WVU allows 16 points per game less than Providence. Boys Huggins is steaming right now & here is a few Jr o Power stats for tonight's battle . Friars are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games & The Favorite a smooth 6-1 last 7 Ats
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Toronto Raptors -6.5
This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies traveling to Toronto to play a rested Raptors team tonight after just losing in Memphis last night. The Raptors are an outstanding 20-6 at home and they enter tonight's contest having won 8 of their last 9. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are struggling, entering tonight's game having lost 5 in a row SU & ATS and 7 of their last 8 SU & ATS. Memphis has won the only meeting this season so the Raptors should be motivated to avenge that loss. In fact, plays on favorites revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 35-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Utah –3 over NEW ORLEANS
Have to figure that these teams playing back-to-back after the break have a nice edge over those that have been off for 5-7 days. Case in point are these Jazz, who played in Houston last night and won by nine. It also doesn’t hurt that the Jazz were the hottest team going into the break with 14 wins in its past 16 games while the Hornets had lost four of six. New Orleans has been off for a full week and asking them to return to play the Jazz and stay within this range is a tall task and one that they’re unlikely to succeed at. Utah is hot as a firecracker and raring to go, as all teams are that are sizzling. Play: Utah –3 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Detroit +11½ over ORLANDO
In staying with the same theory that teams playing back-to-back have an edge over those that have been off for a week, the Pistons come in here off an easy win last night over the T-Wolves. Now, the T-Wolves aren’t much and the Pistons will take a giant step up in class, however, they always play these Magic tough no matter what the situation. In fact, you have to go way back to May of ‘08 to find the last time the Magic beat the Pistons by more than the points offered here. The Pistons have stayed within this margin eight straight games against the Magic, including three times already this year. The Pistons are completely healthy and could definitely make this one scary close. Play: Detroit+11½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Minnesota +4½/+1.64 over WASHINGTON
Let’s split this one up and play the T-Wolves straight up for a unit and take the points straight up for the other unit. Without sounding redundant, the Wolves played last night while the Wiz did not and this number is low enough to suggest the oddsmakers give these guests a helluva shot. The T-Wolves were coming on a bit with four straight wins right before they lost its final three before the break. This is a team that could absolutely do some damage against teams that aren’t ready or that take them too lightly, as they have a slew of good shooters and are very capable of nailing those open J’s. The Wizards offer up very little as the chalk, as they’re capable of losing to anyone and with very little depth and with a bunch of guys that usually go cold during the game for prolonged stretches, they’re extremely ripe to get beat on any night. This is one of those nights. Play Minnesota +1.64 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Minnesota +4½ (Risking 1.07 units to win 1).
Sac Lawson
Virginia pk vs Florida St.
This line is dropping more and more, and although that's a bit concerning in some cases, today I feel like it simply works to our advantage. Tony Bennett's teams have always had the reputation of being some of the better defensive teams in the nation, and this year's club is no exception. They play amazingly stout perimeter defense and control the paint efficiently as well. Virginia doesn't take many chances on defense, they sit back and force teams to run down the shot clock and take poor shots as time runs low. Obviously a team that doesn't take many chances doesn't turn people over at an amazing rate, but they still force turnovers better than most. Today they face a Florida State team that turns it over at a rate that is getting dangerously close to worst in the nation. You put Florida State on the road against an amazing defensive team and I have no doubt they'll be a bit turnover prone tonight.
The second key factor we have going for us is this.. I mention all the time that there are four frontcourt dominant teams in the ACC (FSU, UNC, GT, NCST). Virginia is 4-0 against that pool of teams this year with an average margin of victory well over 10 points. Virginia is not insanely tall themselves, but their discipline on defense is exceptional, and their physicality is unmatched in many cases. Virginia is not amazing on the boards, but they don't give up offensive rebounds, and that's something that is paramount in beating FSU.
Both these teams are fantastic defensively, but I'm very confident that the success Virginia has had against frontcourt dominant teams will show itself yet again this evening. And I'm also confident that FSU's turnover issues will be exceptionally exemplified this evening. Also, FSU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 games and 2-6 ATS on the road their last 8. This is a team that is a bit overvalued by Vegas, and we can use that to our advantage in backing the home team tonight. Let's take Virginia for 1 unit and expect them to grab a home win tonight.
GoodFella
TOR -7 vs MEM
This is the 2nd meeting between these two clubs this season--as the Grizzlies handled the Raptors at Memphis (115-107) as 2.5 pt dogs, way back on Oct. 30th--so the Raps will definitely be looking to avoid the season series sweep tonight. Memphis has lost 5 straight games, since a HOME win over the LA Lakers & this young team is in a back to back spot tonight as well. Memphis lost at HOME to the Suns last night, (109-95) & the Grizzlies have not faired well in back to back spots this season--as they are just (1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS). Memphis is also just (1-6 SU &3-4 ATS) their L/7 ROAD games coming into tonight. Toronto has been playing great ball, and this team has been very good at HOME all season--as their (20-6 SU) mark shows. Toronto is playing their 1st game since the All-Star break tonight--and they may start out slow in the start--but I believe over 4 quarters--they will handle this Grizzlies ballclub and cover the 7 pts. The Raptors are (8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS) their L/9 games overall coming into tonight & they are (8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS) their L/8 HOME games. Lay the 7 points with the Raptors tonight and look for a double digit win.
LT Profits
Appalachian State @ Charleston
The Appalachian State Mountaineers put up an amazing 111 points vs. Georgia Southern Saturday night, but that one outburst seems to have skewed this total, so we will gladly grab the extra points of value on the Under vs. the Charleston Cougars tonight.
Keep in mind that one-game aberration came vs. a terrible Georgia Southern defense that is allowing 79.4 points per game on an unbelievable 51.4 percent shooting from the floor, a defense that ranks 295 out of 347 teams in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy and a defense that plays even worse on the road.
We look for a much more normalized effort from the Mountaineers tonight. Sure, they are averaging a very respectable 73.9 points per game overall vs. Division I foes while allowing 70.9, but even that combined total of 144.8 points is about eight points less than this posted total. Furthermore, the Appalachian State offensive average drops to 68.6 points on the road, where their games average only 140.1 points.
Even College of Charleston games average only 146.8 points overall and 145.9 points at home this season, so this inflated total seems to be entirely due to that Appalachian explosion Saturday night vs. a poor defense. It should also be noted that the Cougars actually play good defense at home, where they are limiting their Division I opponents to just 40.6 shooting from the floor.
If not for that last game on Saturday, this posted total would probably not be higher than 150 points, and in any event, we do not see these teams getting out of the 140s tonight, so the Under is the play.
Pick: Appalachian State/Charleston Under 156.5