Teddy Covers
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Clippers
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -6
The Clippers haven’t just been bad under interim head coach Kim Hughes – they’ve been awful. Most teams enjoy a temporary boost in energy and confidence when they get a new coach. The Clips are 0-4 SU and ATS since Hughes took over for Mike Dunleavy. In all four games, LA showed little passion or desire during crunch time. They lost by double digit margins each time, including twice on their home floor.
LA hasn’t just been bad on the second night of back-2-backs – they’ve been awful. They are 0-6 SU in their last six tries in this role, losing those six games by a combined 77 points. They just traded away key contributor Marcus Camby – their best interior defender and rebounder, by far – in a nonsensical salary dump that didn’t actually save them much money or bring them any needed pieces. Then they cut Ricky Davis, who actually had a legitimate role as a veteran leader on this team. This team is a chemistry nightmare once again. Their lack of effort is very real in this setting.
Atlanta brings a very different level of emotion into this contest. The Hawks were humiliated at home in their last game before the break, blown out by 18 points in a non-competitive defeat. Head coach Mike Woodson was not amused, requiring the entire team to meet in LA on Monday for a pair of vigorous practice sessions over the past two days. With a healthy roster once again – both Jamal Crawford and Zaza Pachulia are expected back in the lineup tonight -- expect the Hawks to take care of business against an opponent that simply doesn’t care. 2* Take Atlanta.
Sean Higgs
Louisiana Tech vs. Utah State
Play: Louisiana Tech +11
Going with the Bulldogs tonight as my FREE PLAY. LaTech already rolled this Aggies bunch by 22 at home. Now we get them catching double digits. I am not saying they are winning here, as Utah State has a nice home court edge, and are in a primo revenge spot. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS as road dogs. Utah State has covered 5 straight at home. I am looking for Louisiana Tech to control the tempo and the glass and score a cover.
Black Widow
1* on Ohio State -3
We'll lay the points with the Buckeyes at home tonight giving up just a field goal to Purdue. Ohio State is finally at full strength, and with Evan Turner back in the lineup, they are the hottest team in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes have won 9 of their last 10 games overall, incuding six straight victories. The Buckeyes even beat Purdue on the road, 70-66, during this hot streak. Ohio State is 17-6 S.U. & 18-4 ATS in their last 23 meetings with Purdue, including 9-1 S.U. & 7-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings. It's safe to say this has been a one-sided series over the years and with what's at stake tonight with the Big Ten title possibly on the line, the Buckeyes won't be falling at home. Ohio State is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1997. Purdue is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1997. Ohio State is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Finally, the Buckeyes are 15-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 24.9 points/game. There is some serious line value with the Buckeyes laying a small number at home here. Take Ohio State and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Rockets +5.5
Reasons why the Rockets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs (HOUSTON) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This is a 25-5 ATS System hitting 83.3% since 1996. After a rough stretch with 3 consecutive losses, the Houston Rockets are finally starting to show solid value again after overachieving during the first half of the season. Bet Houston on the road.
Hunter Price
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -4
Both of these teams are on the back end of a back to back but the Mavs are the ones returning home and should finally prove to be a nice advantage for this squad. Much has been made over the last couple of days during the All-Star break regarding the Troubles the Mavs have endured at home against any and all teams. The Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest as well as 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. In much the way that the last time these 2 teams met in that the Suns had gone 0-18 when playing a national tv game on TNT. The Mavs now have their own little streak of 18 games they have failed to cover at home when favored. Well the trend flips tonight as the Mavs win going away. Lay the four and take the Mavs.
Jack Jones
Louisiana Tech vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -11
Utah State is 13-1 at home this year where they have beaten opponents by a score of 80.3 to 58.8. They have also dominated in conference play, going 10-2 with a margin of victory of 13 ppg.
LA Tech has been over-rated all year long, not winning at the pay window since January 11th, a span of seven straight games. Utah State hasn't lost since January 4th, when they went down by 22 points to La Tech. Revenge is on their minds so don't think they'll take the foot off the pedal here tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota T-Wolves +5
I know Minnesota isn't very good, but Washington isn't very good either, and I can't justify laying this many points with the Wiz when you consider that they are just 15-37 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Plus, the Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Look for the T-Wolves to bounce back strong and take the Wizards down to the wire tonight.
Dennis Macklin
Duquesne vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -6
The 49ers have had a week to stew over their 75-47 loss to Dayton, a games where they shot just 25% for the game and were outscored 45-20 in the second half. Prior, you could argue that Charlotte was the hottest team in the A-10 and rocking a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS blast. Expected more from Duquense, just 4-8 SU and ATS since January 1st, 6-12 ATS on the year, and 4-8 ATS versus winning records. Like playing against the Dukes because they are an awful FT shooting outfit converting just 60.6% from the charity stripe and and equally horrific 25.5% from behind the arc meaning that if homies get out fast, Duquense has few options in playing catchup. Also, the backdoor is shut tight and unlikely to be opened against 49er crew that allows just 40.4
Jeff Benton
Hope you took advantage of Monday’s easy wire-to-wire 5♦ free-play winner on San Diego State minus the points at TCU. I’m now on runs of 22-10, 12-4, 9-3 and 3-0 with plays that I’m giving away! For Wednesday’s comp selection, I’ll stay in the Mountain West Conference and play another road favorite, backing BYU at Colorado State.
The Cougars are coming off a 91-48 destruction of Air Force on Saturday, easily covering despite being a hefty 22½-point home favorite. As impressive as that 43-point win was, it wasn’t BYU’s most lopsided conference victory of the season. That came on Jan. 16, a 91-47 rout of – you guessed it! – Colorado State. In that 44-point blowout as an 18-point chalk, the Cougars shot 58.6 percent and the Rams shot 31.4 percent.
It wasn’t exactly a unique result, either, as BYU has won the last seven meetings against Colorado State, going 5-0-1 ATS in the last six. In those last six contests, the Cougars won by 21, 14, 27, 26, 34 and 44 points!
Colorado State does come into tonight having won (and covered) four of its last five games, including the last three in a row. But they beat four teams (Utah, Wyoming, Air Force and TCU) that are at the bottom of the Mountain West standings. Against the top four Mountain West squads (New Mexico, BYU, San Diego State and UNLV), the Rams are 0-4 SU and ATS (0-2 SU and ATS).
7♦ BYU
Scott Delaney
Nebraska at Kansas State
This should be an easy chore for the Wildcats to keep pace in the Big 12 standings, where they're currently second, 3-1/2 games back of top-ranked Kansas.
And while it's a foregone conclusion the Jayhawks will walk away with the Big 12 title, the Wildcats know they need to do everything they can to not only earn a high seed for the Big 12 tournament, but put themselves in a position to move far in the event, so the Selection Committee could possibly award them with a decent seed in the Big Dance.
With this one being played in Manhattan, the Cornhuskers won't stand a chance. They're 13-12 overall, but a dismal 1-9 in conference play. And for as intense a coach Frank Martin can be, I don't see him letting up on the happless Huskers, whose offensive woes will continue to plague them against one of the top offensive teams in the Big 12.
Kansas State averages 80.4 points per game thanks to a solid .459 shooting percentage. Nebraska, meanwhile, ranks last in the conference in scoring with a meager 65.2 ppg.
The Huskers are no competition for the 'Cats, so don't even blink at the two-touchdown point spread.
5♦ KANSAS STATE
Stephen Nover
Memphis at TORONTO (-7)
The Memphis Grizzlies have cooled off losing five in a row. But the Grizzlies are a better team than Toronto, which makes taking this bushel full of points very attractive.
The Grizzlies lost at home last night to the Suns. But Memphis should hardly be fatigued having had the long All-Star weekend to rest.
The Raptors had won eight of their last nine heading into the All-Star break. But now Toronto hasn't played in a week. That's too long. The Grizzlies actually have an edge scheduling-wise because they won't be rusty like the Raptors figure to be.
Both clubs are batting for a playoff spot, but the Grizzlies are more battle-tested playing in the more difficult Western Conference.
Toronto's last six games, for instance, have been against the 76ers, Kings, Nets, Pacers, Pacers and Knicks.
By comparison, Memphis' last six games have been against the Suns, Hawks, Timberwolves, Rockets, Cavaliers and Lakers.
The Grizzlies have covered seven of the past eight times they've met opponents from the weak Atlantic Division. They also are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games versus the Raptors.
2♦ GRIZZLIES
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at DALLAS (-4')
I'm on a 51-21-1 run with my FREE plays, including Tuesdays' winner with Kentucky. Tonight I have an NBA comp winner coming on the Mavericks as they will get the win and cover at home over the Suns.
These two foes get together tonight and while Dallas did not look good on Tuesday, expect them to bounce back with a big effort tonight in front of the home crowd. Lay the chalk with the Mavs.
Dallas’ new players, Caron Butler and Brenden Haywood, will be fired up to play in front of the new home crowd and they will be well-received by the Dallas faithful. The Mavericks lost at Oklahoma City on Tuesday, 99-86 as a 4 ½-point road ‘dog. But chalk that up to All-Star hangover as this team hosted everything all weekend and got no rest.
Now they are back home and will have their legs under them tonight – at least better legs than Phoenix. The Suns were in Memphis on Tuesday, winning 109-95 in a pick-em game. They won and covered in five in a row, but that comes after a 2-9 ATS slump, including 1-4 ATS on the road.
Phoenix has traditionally been bad on the second night of a back-to-back, going 3-7 in their last 10 with no rest. While Dallas hasn’t been great at the betting window either, I expect an infusion of energy in this roster tonight when the new guys take the court at home.
Dallas has won three of four and five of seven against the Suns and they’ll come out and get this one by 10.
4♦ DALLAS
Texas at MISSOURI (-1)
Delivered the FREE winner on Tuesday with Kentucky as the Wildcats went to Mississippi State for the win and cover, improving my free run to 51-21-1. Tonight I have another college winner with Missouri as the Tigers host Texas in Big 12 action.
Missouri is 15-1 at home and they have been focused on this one for a while. The Tigers don’t have any love for the Longhorns so Mizzou Arena is going to be loud and obnoxious tonight when Texas arrives for this Big 12 game. I’m going to take the home team Tigers to get the win and cover.
Missouri put out a great effort at Baylor on Saturday, falling 64-62 to a damn good Bears’ squad, cashing as four-point underdogs. They got consistent play from their starters, with three – Justin Safford, Zaire Taylor and Kim English, all hitting double digits, but they got outrebounded 35-23. They have to hit the boards better tonight against Texas, and they will on the home court.
Since opening the year 17-0 and moving into the top spot in the country, Texas has gone 3-5 since, including just 2-6 at the betting window. They blew out Nebraska at home on Saturday, but they are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including an 80-71 loss to Oklahoma on Feb. 6, falling as a 6 ½-point road chalk.
The Tigers have won the last two meetings with Texas, including a 97-84 win back in 2008 when the Longhorns arrived in Missouri. Last year, Missouri went to Texas and scored a 69-65 win as 4 ½-point underdogs. The Tigers are on ATS runs of 22-8 at home, 19-7 as a favorite, 16-7 in big 12 play and 7-0 at home as a favorite of up to 6 ½ points.
Texas is on ATS slides of 2-10 overall, 1-6 on the road, 0-7 after a straight-up win, 6-19-1 in Big 12 action and 2-9 against teams with winning records. Love Missouri in this one, play the Tigers.
3♦ MISSOURI
Michael Cannon
Appalachian State at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (-3)
I am now 80-69-3 with my last 152 free plays.
Take College of Charleston at home minus the points over Appalachian State.
This should be a good game, but I don’t see the Mountaineers hanging tight for the full 40 minutes.
The Cougars are one tough team to play in Charleston, just ask North Carolina.
C of C is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 Wednesday games. Their backcourt of Andrew Goudelock, Donovan Monroe and Tony White Jr. combine to average 43.7 ppg and are absolute deadeyes from beyond the arc.
App State is a gritty team, but I see them fading late and then C of C extending their lead at the foul line.
Take College of Charleston minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
Duke (-7') at MIAMI (Fla)
I am now 80-69-3 with my last 152 free plays.
Take Duke minus the points on the road over Miami (Fla).
I just don’t trust the Hurricanes at this price, even at home. Duke is rolling right now, having won four in a row and six of its last seven (5-2 ATS). Five of those wins have come by double digits.
The Blue Devils rank 12th in the nation in scoring and are allowing just 62.3 ppg.
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last nine games, going 3-5-1 ATS. The Hurricanes have had trouble on offense lately, scoring just 66 points or less in their last four games and seven of their last nine.
Duke is on pointspread runs of 10-4 overall, 5-1 in ACC play, 4-1 on Wednesday and 10-4 against winning teams. The Canes got the cash in Saturday’s 74-66 loss to Clemson, but are just 1-5-1 ATS following an ATS win.
Take Duke as the road chalk as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ DUKE
Derek Mancini
Purdue (+3) at OHIO STATE
Easy Freebie winner with Northern Iowa crushing Creighton last night! Let's keep the ball rolling, but this time with a road dog that's too good to pass up, as Purdue visits Ohio State.
Revenge, how sweet it is! Boilermakers endured an embarassing 70-66 upset loss in West Lafayette January 12th, and they've had this date circled since then. Both teams come in red-hot, but all the talk this week has been about the Buckeyes (just the way I like it), and that's where gamblers are going to get in trouble.
Why not lay just -3 points to get the red-hot Buckeyes at home right? I'll tell you why not, because if sportsbetting was as easy as that, you wouldn't be reading this analysis! Of course its going to be a close game, and when it comes down to it, Purdue could very well win outright... So go ahead and lay your 3 points, and watch as Purdue comes out on a mission tonight.
One little (pun intended) difference from their last meeting to tonight's game, and that's 5'9 guard Lewis Jackson. He gives Purdue a true point guard coming off the bench, making the second unit much more potent. Moore and Hummel will get theirs without making too many mistakes, but its Jackson who generals the second unit and ensures no let up from this Boilermakers offense. This is going to be a close game, and it will come down to depth. Take Purdue plus the points in this contest.
2♦ PURDUE
Duke at MIAMI-FLORIDA (+7')
Easy Freebie winner with Northern Iowa crushing Creighton last night! Had my eye on this game for a while now, as Miami-Florida hosts Duke tonight, and I'm liking the home dog here.
If you look over each schools recent games, everything screams taking the Blue Devils tonight, but that's my problem. Ever since I started in this business, I can't tell you how many times I've seen people get burned by backing a marquee team in this kind of spot. Of course, Duke should win, but that's not how Vegas makes their money - the obvious play is rarely the right play.
Hurricanes fooled a lot of people when they started the season red-hot, and have since been exposed. But, you have to consider where they got exposed, and that's everywhere but the BankUnited Center. Same goes for Duke, they've been unstoppable at Cameron Indoor, but laying this many on the road is too much to ask. They had trouble at Georgia Tech and trouble at Boston College, and don't be surprised to see them have trouble tonight.
6 of the Hurricanes last 9 games have been on the road, but people forget the Hurricanes have won their L2 at home (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech). I don't believe we'll be seeing any outright upsets here, but I'm telling you Miami is a legitimate threat at home. Take Miami-Florida plus the points in this contest.
1♦ MIAMI-FLORIDA
Karl Garrett
St. Joseph's at XAVIER (-16')
Agreed, this number is a little "hefty" on the Musketeers tonight in Atlantic 10 play, but I see nothing to encourage me for a play on the underdog.
St. Joe's comes into the Cintas Center with a 2-11 straight up mark away from home, and their 4-9 spread mark in those games does not instill confidence in grabbing the points.
All Xavier has done is go 12-0 straight up at home, and cover in 9 of their 11 lined home contests.
The Musketeers are looking for some "style points" as we head down the stretch, and after their weekend win at Florida, I expect them to flex their muscles tonight at home against a team that comes in having lost their last pair, and 5 of their last 5, while going just 1-4 against the spread in those games.
Xavier brings down the hammer tonight, as the Musketeers roll large in this Atlantic 10 battle.
Take the "X"-Men minus the points.
3♦ XAVIER
Texas (+1) at MISSOURI
G-Man gets the feeling the Longhorns are sitting on a big conference road outright tonight in Columbia.
Texas had lost 5 of 7 prior to their weekend thumping of Nebraksa, and while the Longhorns haven't really come up with many "quality" road wins this season, I do recall the 'Horns whipping up on Oklahoma State in Stillwater a few weeks ago.
This could be a good spot for Texas to show they are a viable late March threat.
Missouri's psyche could be a little fragile after their tough 2-point loss at Baylor over the weekend. Sure, the Tigers are 15-1 straight up at home, but the Longhorns owe them a little payback.
Texas has dropped the last pair of series meetings straight up, but had won and covered the previous 8 series showdowns.
With a little spring back in their step, I like the 'Horns to hook'em tonight in Columbia.
Take Texas in this near pick spot.
3♦ TEXAS