Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, February 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Arizona State at Colorado
The Sun Devils are coming off their upset win over Arizona and head to Boulder to face a Colorado team that is 15-1 SU at home and 2-0 ATS in it two games as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Colorado is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Buffaloes favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-3 1/2)

Game 723-724: St. Joseph's at Rhode Island (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 59.662; Rhode Island 59.966
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+4)

Game 725-726: William & Mary at College of Charleston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 52.461; College of Charleston 51.560
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 1
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+2 1/2)

Game 727-728: Duquesne at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 51.418; St. Bonaventure 66.866
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-10 1/2)

Game 729-730: Delaware at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 54.417; Hofstra 51.246
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 3
Vegas Line: Delaware by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+5 1/2)

Game 731-732: Drexel at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 52.764; James Madison 50.006
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 3
Vegas Line: Drexel by 1
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-1)

Game 733-734: Northwestern at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 60.035; Ohio State 77.580
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2; 110
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2; 116
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-14 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: Boston College at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 56.974; Syracuse 77.494
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 20 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 14 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-14 1/2); Over

Game 737-738: Auburn at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 61.513; Florida 80.998
Dunkel Line: Florida by 19 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Florida by 17; 136
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-17); Under

Game 739-740: St. Louis at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 68.472; George Mason 57.765
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 10 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 7 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-7 1/2); Under

Game 741-742: DePaul at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.632; Xavier 66.567
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 10; 151
Vegas Line: Xavier by 14 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+14 1/2); Over

Game 743-744: Cincinnati at Central Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 71.335; Central Florida 60.405
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 11; 126
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Under

Game 745-746: Evansville at Indiana State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 49.662; Indiana State 62.576
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 13
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-11)

Game 747-748: Akron at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.855; Buffalo 63.016
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 7
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-4 1/2)

Game 749-750: Kent State at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 48.907; Miami (OH) 54.661
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 6
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-1 1/2)

Game 751-752: Western Michigan at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.787; Ohio 63.829
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 8
Vegas Line: Ohio by 6
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-6)

Game 753-754: Ball State at Central Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 45.348; Central Michigan 49.274
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 4
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 6
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6)

Game 755-756: Creighton at Marquette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 75.071; Marquette 67.528
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 7 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Creighton by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-3); Under

Game 757-758: Wichita State at Loyola-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 68.600; Loyola-Chicago 58.117
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+14)

Game 759-760: Mississippi State at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 52.732; LSU 69.084
Dunkel Line: LSU by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 14
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-14)

Game 761-762: Vanderbilt at Missouri (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 62.967; Missouri 68.752
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 6
Vegas Line: Missouri by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+9 1/2)

Game 763-764: Houston at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 51.587; SMU 75.195
Dunkel Line: SMU by 23 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: SMU by 14 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-14 1/2); Over

Game 765-766: TCU at Kansas State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 54.756; Kansas State 68.484
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 13 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 16; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+16); Under

Game 767-768: South Carolina at Arkansas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 57.862; Arkansas 71.808
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 14
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 12
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-12)

Game 769-770: Washington at Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 58.317; Oregon 70.918
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 12 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Oregon by 10; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-10); Over

Game 771-772: Notre Dame at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 60.409; Miami (FL) 66.574
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 6
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-3)

Game 773-774: LaSalle at Dayton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 57.301; Dayton 67.844
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 10 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Dayton by 8; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-8); Over

Game 775-776: Illinois at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 60.486; Minnesota 69.837
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 129
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Under

Game 777-778: Arizona at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 74.183; Utah 67.807
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-4); Under

Game 779-780: UCLA at California (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 71.576; California 69.161
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 2 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: California by 1 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+1 1/2); Under

Game 781-782: New Mexico at UNLV (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 65.173; UNLV 62.554
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 2 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: UNLV by 1; 139
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+1); Over

Game 783-784: Arizona State at Colorado (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 64.091; Colorado 70.822
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 6 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-3 1/2); Over

Game 785-786: Austin Peay at Morehead State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 43.024; Morehead State 58.359
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-12 1/2)

Game 787-788: Manhattan at Monmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 59.429; Monmouth 49.049
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-8 1/2)

Game 789-790: Elon at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.303; NC-Greensboro 44.258
Dunkel Line: Elon by 6
Vegas Line: Elon by 3
Dunkel Pick: Elon (-3)

Stephen Nover

New York Knicks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: New York Knicks +4

New Orleans had been playing well going into All-Star break winning eight of its last 13. And ordinarily I would like to play on a Western Conference club against a weak Eastern Conference foe, but circumstances are different here.

The Knicks played last night. They rallied from an 18-point deficit before blowing a seven-point fourth quarter lead in a 98-93 road loss to Memphis.

That was a frustrating loss for New York as the pressure mounts on Mike Woodson and Carmelo Anthony. But the Knicks didn't quit and now have the rust off. They also step down in class. The Grizzlies are 6 1/2 games better than New Orleans and have been playing extremely well winning 10 of their last 13.

The Pelicans last played a week ago. That's way too long of a period to sit around in today's NBA. New Orleans doesn't have great incentive either playing in the much more difficult conference where it is 7 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot.

The Pelicans are lottery team and they know it. Anthony Davis is an emerging superstar, but their two other key players - Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson - remain sidelined. Anderson scored 31 when the Pelicans defeated the Knicks, 103-99, at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 1.

So the Knicks have a revenge factor to go with a strong urgency to get back into the playoff race. Unlike New Orleans, New York has a legitimate chance to make the postseason because the East is so weak after Miami and Indiana.

The Knicks have covered nine of the last 11 times versus the Pelicans. This includes a 5-0 ATS mark in New Orleans.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Ball State vs. Central Michigan
Play: Ball State +5½

Neither of these teams has a great record, but I am siding with Ball State in this matchup against Central Michigan. The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Chippewas, and I think that has them coming into this matchup a little underrated. Ball State may not score a lot of points, but their opponents have been solid defensively allowing a mere 68.5 points per game. They will catch a break tonight against a Central Michigan team that has surrendered 73.5 points per game.

Central Michigan has lost three of its last four games, and a big reason for that is a defense that has given up over 50 percent shooting from the field in each of those games. I also think the Chippewas offensive stats are a bit inflated thanks to a game against Marygrove where they scored 127 points. Central Michigan is 3-7 against the spread at home, and 6-6 straight up, so they obviously do not get a lot of benefit from home court advantage. The Cardinals are seeking their first road win of the season, and I like their chances to pick it up tonight.

Art Aronson

Orlando vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 196

These teams have played twice this year and Cleveland has won both. The first was 109-100 on December 13th, the total sailing above the posted number of 195 in that one. The Cavs won the second at home on January 2nd, 87-81, the total staying well below the number of 197.5 in that contest. I think that when this one ends we’ll see a similar combined score as what we saw in the second game of the season between these two teams. Orlando is coming a tough 104-100 loss in Milwaukee last night and we can expect it to come out a bit flat here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario (note that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 20 of 26 road games this year). The Cavs are also coming off a high-scoring affair last night, a relatively simple 114-85 victory over the 76ers. Like the Magic, expect Cleveland to be a little “tired” to start this second game of the back-to-back (note that Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of 18 this year when playing the role of favorite). A couple of bottom feeders going head-to-head; all signs point to a lower-scoring defenisve battle. Consider a second look at the under in this one guys.

Tom Grassi

Drexel vs. James Madison
Play: Drexel -1

As the slim road chalk in this one, the Drexel Dragons have been on a roll since the start of the month with a 4-0-1 ATS mark, while the same can’t be said for their opponent, which is saddled with a 2-9-1 ATS record over the past six weeks.

Numbers don’t lie, and these ones don’t make it promising for the Dukes: The Dragons have covered 10 of their 14 games away from home this year, while James Madison has just a 1-6 ATS mark in front of their fans, and a 3-9 ATS record within the Colonial Athletic Association.

Drexel has thrived over the past three seasons when put in the position of being a road favorite of six points or less, beating the line 10 of 12 times. The fact that they enter the game as a slight favorite is significant, since this series has seen the last five games covered by the team giving points.

James Madison’s small collection of handicapping weapons in this game might be headed by the revenge angle, since the Dragons won by 18 at home 11 days ago, easily covering the eight-point spread. However, the line is likely too low in this case for that to factor in, so we say to lay the points.

Brandon Shively

Washington vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -10

This is a same season revenger for Oregon as they suffered a 80-76 defeat to Washington last month. In that game, Washington shot 58% from the floor and this was at a time when Oregon was on a losing streak as they lost their 5th straight game. This is a great spot for the Ducks tonight to mash the gas and get some revenge vs. the Huskies who are only 2-7 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. They lost by 26 @ Colorado, by 9 @ Utah, by 12 @ Stanford, and by 26 @ Cal.

Washington is a team that just does not have many reliable shooters outside of CJ Wilcox. Their bench is thin and Oregon will go 10 deep and push the pace. If the current 5 on the court is not clicking, then HC Altman will make changes and find the correct chemistry. I do not see this game being close. Washington only shoots 41% from the floor on the road, scoring 66 ppg. Oregon is scoring 87 ppg at home and shooting 42% from the 3 point line. They are the nation's #2 free throw shooting team at 78% as well and this is a great game for the Ducks to run up the score and they will not let off the gas once they build a lead. While the Ducks have had trouble covering at home lately (1-6 ATS their last 7 home games), it can be noted that they are 26-8-2 ATS in their last 36 games following an ATS win. Look for the Quack Attack to get a BLOWOUT Win tonight.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Detroit vs. Charlotte
Play: Over 201

It's the second of a back to back spot, both teams meeting each other last night in Detroit. Both teams are terrible on defense and the over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Detroit likes to run but the Pistons don't play any defense, 25th in the NBA in points allowed and second to last in field goal shooting defense allowing .466% shooting -- only Sacramento is worse. Charlotte is giving up 07 ppg and the over is 7-1 in the Bobcats last eight contests against a team with a losing record, plus 4-1 over the total when they face a team from the NBA Central division. The over is 40-16 in the Pistons last 56 games overall, so look for both defenses to take the night off as the offenses run to please the fans -- as neither will be in the NBA postseason.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona State at ColoradoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The last 5 times the Buffaloes have taken the court, the game has gone over the total. The last 5 times the Sun Devils have taken the floor, the over is 4-1. We won't be surprised by the slow start, but once both teams settle in the 3 balls and transitions dunks will get this one over the number.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan at OhioFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OhioFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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WMU is quietly surging, with SU wins in its last five. And the Broncs recently beat Ohio by 16 at Kalamazoo on Feb. 5. But MAC sources have alerted to a possible late rally by the Bobcats, with their upset win on Saturday at Buffalo perhaps lighting a stretch-drive fuse for Jim Christian's squad that owns a potent 1-2 combo in sr. G Nick Kellogg (Clark's son at 15.2 ppg) and rapidly-maturing 6-9 juco Maurice Ndour (20 ppg last six).

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Duquesne at St. BonaventureFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. BonaventureFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bonnies have suffered three narrow losses in the last four outings by 3 points or less, including a see-saw battle in late January at Duquesne that ended with the Dukes' Derrick Colter draining a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the upset. That loss dropped St. Bonaventure's pointspread mark in the series to 11-4, but the record tightens to 6-0 ATS when the Bonnies are playing with revenge. Meanwhile, Duquesne has feasted on weaker competition this year, going 8-2 SU versus .500 or less teams at press time, but have won just one out of ten games versus winning teams. They will be entering this contest off a same-season revenger with Rhode Island, and they're 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS on the road after playing the Rams. Also, the Dukes have won just two of their last eight contests: besides the St. Bonnie buzzer-beater, their only victory in that stretch is over the powerhouse known as New Jersey Institute of Technology. With St. Bonaventure's 8-0 SUATS record in their last eight home games with three or more days of rest, we'll call for the blowout in this one. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Bonaventure.

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Marquette +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I cashed a free play selection on Creighton in their beatdown of Villanova on Sunday but its time to go the other way in this matchup. Creighton is a good team but maybe not quite as good as they looked in their second demolition of 'nova this season. That was a perfect tactical matchup for them but this game not so much. The Golden Eagles were routed at Creighton earlier this season in a game where they couldn't hit a shot to save their lives. The Jays will find the going much more difficult here on Marquette's home floor. Creighton's win/cover at Villanova is the only bet they've cashed in their past five and they've not been a good late season investment in the past couple of years (now on a 4-16 ATS run in the month of February). I like Marquette coach Buzz Williams and he's been candid with his players about the importance of this game as his team tries to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2005. Perfect situation backing a team like that against a not as physical Creighton team coming off a game in which everything worked perfectly for them.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent vs. Miami OhioFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kent +2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent is a live dog in this game. They have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and have won 3 of 4 after shooting 50% or higher last out. They will look to break a 4 game spread losing streak. In games vs losing teams they have won 7 of 10 this year and are 3-0 vs teams ranked 150 to 200 in the RPI Scale. After scoring 80+ points last out they have come back to win 4 of 5. Tonight they travel to take on Miami Ohio. The Red Hawks have dropped 35 of 43 vs winning teams and are 5-21 ate on Wednesday. They have lost 4 straight ands have been a big money burner when favored losing to the spread in 17 of 21 as a favorite the past few seasons. In Games vs teams ranked 100 to 200 in the RPI Scale they have lost 5 of 7. We will back the dog here tonight with Kent.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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ARSENAL +½ +124 over Bayern MunichSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Champions League knock-out stage didn't begin well for English clubs last night with Manchester City losing 2-0 at home to Barcelona. Arsenal will be hoping they can avoid such a fate against defending Champions League title holders Bayern Munich. The sides met at the same stage of the Champions League last season with Bayern winning convincingly, 3-1 at the Emirates and seemingly ending the tie as a contest. However, Arsenal produced one of their best displays of last season by winning 2-0 in Munich and only going out on the away goals rule.
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Arsenal rested a few players on Sunday in the FA Cup where we were successful in taking them against Liverpool but will be at near full strength for this encounter. Mikel Arteta is suspended and Theo Walcott is a long term absentee who will miss the rest of the season as well as the World Cup. Bayern are missing Franck Ribery who was outstanding last season as the German side won the treble and Xherdan Shaqiri is also absent. Ribery's absence will be welcomed by the home side although Bayern have plenty of other weapons. Bayern have the domestic league wrapped up, leading by 16 points with only 13 games to go while Arsenal are still involved in the title race in England.
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Available at plus money to avoid defeat at home we're happy to take Arsenal +½ plus some juice on the Asian Handicap. Last season will no doubt be at the forefront of their mind and it wouldn't surprise us to see a slightly more conservative Arsenal this time around. Bayern represent a big challenge and losing at home again would likely signal the end of the tie. Although they were able to win in Munich last year they can't count on achieving that again and a positive result at home is surely a must for their chances.

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California -1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Many of our existing clients and followers knew this was coming, but as a refresher for our newer friends, here's our thought behind this play...While we don't follow this system "blindly", we will admit a strong bias to tailing the system most of the time. The Sharps have long followed a system that says that when you have an unranked home favorite over a ranked road dog, and the spread open at between PK and -3, you ALWAYS TAKE the home team. While we don't have the exact numbers on this system, it hits at about a 75% clip and this season, we have hit five of the last six plays that fall into this system. Now when you look at the actual game, we also like the fundamentals that we are looking at with a possible Cal play. These two teams played on January 26th and UCLA came away with a 12-point win. So we have a revenge factor tonight with the Bears. However, when you dig deeper, you will find that the game was Cal's lowest FG% of the season, making just 34.5% of their shots in the loss. Cal won two in a row last week on their Washington road trip and have momentum headed back to Berkley. We also like Mike Montgomery over Steve Alford in a big motivational spot and we think the Bears get this done tonight.